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New York Times
14-05-2025
- Business
- New York Times
Anatomy of a $70 Million Auction Flop
There were gasps, and a pall came over the entire salesroom. What was meant to be the most expensive lot of New York's bellwether spring auctions suddenly looked like a costly mistake. Alberto Giacometti's 1955 bust, 'Grand tête mince (Grand tête de Diego),' carried a pre-sale estimate of over $70 million into Sotheby's Modern evening auction on Tuesday. The artwork was being offered by the Soloviev Foundation, a nonprofit established by the real estate magnate Sheldon H. Solow, who died in 2020. Despite an unsettled economy, the artwork came to the market without a minimum price guarantee from the auction house, which would have ensured the seller received a predetermined price, regardless of the outcome. Solow, auction experts said, had a history of not seeking guarantees, choosing to negotiate for a portion of the buyer's fees instead. Last night that strategy proved fateful. Oliver Barker, the evening's auctioneer, began the bidding for the bust at $59 million. But his bids stalled at $64.25 million. Three minutes passed as he hunched low over the rostrum, hunting for bidders, Nosferatu-like, until announcing that the lot was a pass. Several experts agreed that the artwork's aggressive estimate was the original sin. The artwork's failure to sell was a body blow to Sotheby's Modern sale. The textured Giacometti made up almost 30 percent of the auction's presale low estimate of $240.3 million. The sale as a whole generated only $152 million after fees were stripped out. Giacometti made six casts of 'Grand tête mince' ('Big Thin Head'), modeled after his brother Diego, during his lifetime. Two of those casts were auctioned in the early 2010s, with the most recent selling at Sotheby's in 2013 for just over $50 million, with fees. The seller was looking to achieve $70 million or more for its cast, which is the only painted version. 'No one who is an informed buyer who is serious in this market — billionaire or not — is going to pay what essentially amounts to a 50 percent premium on something that sold in recent memory,' said Todd Levin, an adviser in New York. Between consigning an artwork and auctioning it, auction house specialists rigorously gauge the market to determine whether the estimate still aligns with market demand. If not, the estimate or the reserve price can be lowered to increase the likelihood of a sale. The lot could also be withdrawn to prevent a public failure. Yet lowering the reserve and withdrawing a lot both typically require the consignor's approval. If he or she stands firm, the sale will go ahead. Second-guessing also surrounds the seller's unwillingness to accept a guarantee from Sotheby's. Sources close to the auction say that Solow's family had preferred to offer the work unprotected by a guarantee, to maximize the foundation's profit. Sotheby's supported the request for a traditional auction. 'There is an argument to be made that while guarantees typically undermine competitive bidding on a lot, in the case of the Giacometti one might have provided collectors with assurance and permission to pursue the sculpture,' said Alex Glauber, the president of the Association of Professional Art Advisors. The fear within the auction world is that the bust's flop could now taint casual perceptions of the overall health of the art market, when it was Sotheby's, and the seller, who agreed to expose an object of economic importance to the risks of an unpredictable market. 'A piece like this, at this level, really is a singular entity,' Levin said. 'Trying to pull any opinion about the broad art market from this specificity would be an error.' The Giacometti was the second high-profile lot to disappoint in two days. Andy Warhol's 'Big Electric Chair' (1967-68) was withdrawn from Christie's 20th century evening auction on Monday. The work had been estimated to sell for about $30 million. 'Between Christie's pulling the Warhol 'Electric Chair' and the Giacometti failing to sell at Sotheby's, it's clear that the air is incredibly thin at the upper pricing band of the market, even for masterworks by tried and true names,' Glauber added. Julian Dawes, vice chairman of Sotheby's and head of Impressionist and Modern art, explained the decision to go forward without withdrawing the work: 'We had serious interest from major collectors.' He added, 'We had people poised to bid on this work, and that is why we felt a responsibility to ourselves and to the seller to keep it in the auction and to give it that chance.' An item that fails to sell at an auction is said to have been 'burned' and may have difficulty finding a buyer anytime soon at a similar price.
Yahoo
23-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
A 1955 Giacometti Sculpture Could Fetch Over $70 Million at Auction
Sotheby's has landed a major prize for its May 13 modern art evening sale in New York: Grande tête mince (Grande tête de Diego), a 1955 bronze bust by Alberto Giacometti, estimated at more than $70 million. The work was hand-painted by the artist as a tribute to his brother Diego, Giacometti's lifelong muse and studio assistant. It is the most high-profile lot announced so far for the spring auctions, exceeding a Piet Mondrian painting, estimated to sell for around $50 million, that will appear at Christie's as part Leonard Riggio collection, which that house clinched back in February. More from Robb Report This London Building Starred in 'Paddington.' Now It Can Be Yours for $6 Million Lewis Hamilton and Jenson Button Both Owned McLarens. Now the Supercars Are Heading to Auction. Hermès Will Make More Handbags to Meet Rising Demand Next month's sales will be a crucial test for the art market. Auction totals have declined for two consecutive years amid global economic uncertainty, and concerns over tariffs and stock market volatility have deepened the mood of caution. Few estates have consigned major works, and according to market watchers, many private sellers are opting to sit out. The 25-inch-tall bust is being offered anonymously, but according to Artnet News, it comes from the estate of real estate magnate Sheldon Solow, who died in 2020. It's being sold through the Soloviev Foundation, the nonprofit established by Solow's son, Stefan Soloviev. The sculpture was exhibited at the 1956 Venice Biennale and remained on view for nearly two decades at the Fondation Maeght in southern France before Solow acquired it from Galerie Maeght in 1980, according to the Sotheby's. Simon Shaw, Sotheby's senior adviser for Impressionist and modern art, described Grande tête mince as one of Giacometti's most formally radical and emotionally charged works. Shaw noted the rarity of this particular cast—the only known version with a richly painted surface—and emphasized its 'profound meditative presence,' according to Artnet News. The bust is one of six casts. Market precedent is strong: another version sold for $53 million at Christie's in 2010, and another brought $50 million at Sotheby's in 2013. (Final prices include fees; presale estimates do not.) The higher estimate this time reflects both the quality of this specific cast and Giacometti's rising market profile Shaw told Artnet News. In 2015, Pointing Man sold for $141.3 million, setting a record for both Giacometti and any sculpture at auction, while Le Nez fetched $78.4 million more recently. (Back in February, that sculpture became the center of a legal battle between collectors Justin Sun and David Geffen.) Grande tête mince (Grande tête de Diego) will be on public view at Sotheby's New York galleries from May 2 through May 13, ahead of its appearance in its modern art evening sale. According to Artnet News, the Soloviev Foundation has pledged two other major works—Amedeo Modigliani's Almaisa (1916) and Mark Rothko's Untitled (Red, Orange, Red), from 1967—as collateral for a loan through Christie's art financing program. Two private dealers familiar with the works told the outlet they would be estimated together at around $100 million. Best of Robb Report The 10 Priciest Neighborhoods in America (And How They Got to Be That Way) In Pictures: Most Expensive Properties Click here to read the full article. Sign in to access your portfolio
Business Times
21-04-2025
- Business
- Business Times
Amid ageing woes, China bets on AI to power long-term growth: DBS
[SINGAPORE] As China confronts external geopolitical trade tensions, DBS economists have projected that the next 15 years will see the country weather structural problems from home. While existing headwinds, including a rapidly escalating trade war and an ageing population, will weigh significantly on the country's long-term growth, developments in artificial intelligence (AI) and automation may mitigate its growth slowdown, DBS said. The lender's team has forecast that China's growth rate would slow to 2.5 per cent by 2040, with an average growth rate of 3 per cent a year from 2025 to 2040. It used the Solow growth model, which determines gross domestic product as a function of capital investment, labour, productivity and human capital. That would mark a noticeable slowdown from the 4.6 per cent annual growth recorded from 2020 to 2024. The team of economists, led by DBS chief China and Hong Kong economist Mo Ji, presented China's outlook from 2025 to 2040 in a webinar on Apr 16. Ageing population weighs on growth Dr Ji said that China's ageing demographic was an obstacle to growth. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up 'China's ageing population remains a structural drag on its long-term economic expansion,' she noted. 'Ageing shrinks the workforce and raises dependency ratios, straining resources for innovation and growth.' She added that its effects are felt across the economy, paring an annual 0.4 percentage point off growth projections. Due to higher life expectancies, lower fertility rates and a declining total population, the report has forecast that the country's working population will shrink by 0.8 per cent a year. By 2035, individuals aged 60 and above are set to rise above 400 million, or 30 per cent of the total population. Neither does China's ageing bode well for the country's ongoing property struggles. While structural deleveraging of China's property sector has become a policy priority for Beijing in the last five years, DBS expects that the country's housing oversupply will continue to be exacerbated as household sizes, marriage rates and home-buying populations shrink. China's demographic struggles have not been ignored by policymakers. The country has begun progressively raising its retirement age – which currently ranks among the lowest globally – and recently announced its intention to use local government bond proceeds to convert unsold homes into affordable housing. All in on AI A broader move towards technology-driven productivity gains has been targeted by policymakers, as both a driver of productivity and to offset the country's ageing woes. The report noted that the country's State Council has set 2025 as a major milestone for AI development, with a goal of becoming the global leader by 2030. State-backed venture capital funds have pumped more than 23 per cent of their total investments into more than a million AI firms nationwide in the past decade, the report said. The emergence of DeepSeek, the DBS team said, is optimising chip performance, and lowering the energy and computational costs of AI model training and inference. The report further projected the country to dominate the global chip market by 2040, with its market share likely to rise beyond 50 per cent. Such advancements in AI infrastructure is expected to enhance productivity significantly, the DBS economists added. Humanoid robotics are intended to inject productivity gains across various sectors, especially healthcare, education, logistics and elderly care, with the adoption of robots projected to reach 50 per cent by 2040, the report said. 'The government sees humanoid robotics as a critical solution to the ageing population crisis,' noted Samuel Tse, senior economist at DBS. Even agriculture is projected to undergo transformation, with the country targeting full automation in the sector by 2040 – early glimpses already seen in projects such as automated strawberry pickers in Shandong and soil-optimising drones. Rethinking urbanisation Yet as the country's middle class continues to grow, Beijing has recognised the need to transition from capital to domestic consumption as the key driver of the economy. Currently, high household savings of about 45 per cent of GDP – partly in response to insufficient social safety nets – has resulted in weak domestic consumption, which accounts for just 38 per cent of GDP, the report found. 'The government will roll out more and more policies to give people more confidence to spend. That means building a stronger social security system, so people don't feel like they need to hold on to every yuan just in case something goes wrong,' said Nathan Chow, senior economist at DBS. He projected that domestic consumption could rise to about 50 to 55 per cent by 2040. Crucial to the target of sustainable domestic consumption is rethinking urbanisation, which has served as a key driver of Chinese economic growth over several decades through foreign investment and industrialisation, Chow added. 'To China, urbanisation is no longer about expanding as fast as possible – it's about growing smarter,' he noted. 'China wants to build cities that are not only bigger but better. We're talking about more liveable, inclusive and sustainable places.' The country's urbanisation rate is expected to come in at least 75 per cent by 2040, said the report, with greater emphasis placed on healthcare, education and green infrastructure. Technology remains critical in this approach to development. Chow expects such 'smarter' urbanisation to integrate AI-powered optimisation strategies, such as Hangzhou's pilot 'City Brain' programme, designed to streamline traffic and energy grids. Rural areas are already becoming integrated in e-commerce networks and digital agricultural supply chains through platforms such as Pinduoduo, the report noted. Still, existing headwinds remain, as shown in the uncertainty towards trade relations with the United States, which threatens to escalate further. 'The impact of trade war will likely weigh on the disinflation of China,' the report said. 'External demand will continue to slow in the medium term and exacerbate overcapacity.' Paying attention to larger transformational and macroeconomic foundations in the country remains equally important, noted Taimur Baig, chief economist at DBS. 'China's growth in the 2010s happened not because of its investments in the 2010s,' he said. 'Instead, it was due to factors such as the country achieving universal literacy in the 1990s.' 'Today, seeds are being put in place that may provide fruits or create constraints ten or 15 years out.'
New York Times
07-04-2025
- Business
- New York Times
The Trump White House Cited My Research to Justify Tariffs. They Got It All Wrong.
My first question, when the White House unveiled its tariff regime, was, 'How on earth did they calculate such huge rates?' Reciprocal tariffs, after all, are supposed to treat other countries the way they treat us, and foreign tariffs on American goods are nowhere near these levels. The next day it got personal. The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative released its methodology and cited an academic paper produced by four economists, including me, seemingly in support of their numbers. But they got it wrong. Very wrong. I disagree fundamentally with the government's trade policy and approach. But even taking it at face value, our findings suggest the calculated tariffs should be dramatically smaller — perhaps one-fourth as large. Let's start with the biggest mistake. The office said it calculated its reciprocal tariffs at a level that would theoretically eliminate trade deficits with 'each of our trading partners,' one by one. Is that a reasonable goal? It is not. Trade imbalances between two countries can emerge for many reasons that have nothing to do with protectionism. Americans spend more on clothing made in Sri Lanka than Sri Lankans spend on American pharmaceuticals and gas turbines. So what? That pattern reflects differences in natural resources, comparative advantage and development levels. The deficit numbers don't suggest, let alone prove, unfair competition. There are some reasonable arguments in favor of reducing the overall trade deficit, such as to reduce risks from our debt. But these arguments don't apply country by country. The Nobel laureate Robert Solow explained why when he quipped, 'I have a chronic deficit with my barber, who doesn't buy a darned thing from me.' Mr. Solow also surely ran a chronic surplus with his students, and these imbalances reveal nothing about trade barriers in hair care or higher education, nor would they speak to his financial health. For the sake of argument, let's grant President Trump his goal of eliminating all trade deficits, no matter how destructive that would be. Could these reciprocal tariffs succeed? Again, no. The administration's tariff formula assumes that a tariff placed on one country won't affect imports from any others and ignores any implications for exports. These assumptions may work for an action against one small trade partner, but not for the broad salvo announced last week. A large tariff on Japanese auto parts could cause an increase in demand for imports from Mexico and vice versa. And the tariffs clearly invite retaliation and may over time increase the dollar's value, both factors that would most likely depress U.S. exports. Let's keep going. Not only will we grant the government its goal, but we will also ignore flaws in its tariff formula. Do the computed tariffs then look right? Guess what? They do not. The government's formula uses four different numbers to calculate tariffs, including imports and exports for each trading partner. The part that directly relates to our research is an estimate of how much import prices change in response to the additional costs imposed by tariffs. The value of that term, known as the rate of pass-through, isn't obvious and depends on how companies behave. If foreign exporters cut prices to fully offset the tariffs, leaving import prices unchanged, the pass-through would be zero. Alternatively, it could equal 100 percent if exporters don't budge, which means import prices would rise in step with the tariffs. Alberto Cavallo, Gita Gopinath, Jenny Tang and I studied the tariffs placed on Chinese exports in 2018 and 2019. (This is the 'Cavallo et al.' reference in the government's methodology.) We found that tariffs of, say, 20 percent caused domestic importers to pay nearly 19 percent more. This represents a pass-through into import prices of about 95 percent, which is the value I would have plugged into the government's tariff formula. In simple terms, that implies that the price paid for U.S. imports would rise almost as much as the tariff rate. The administration's trade office cites our work, but mentions a different result from the paper, which found a low pass-through rate to the listed prices at two retailers. The Trump administration then plugs a rate of 25 percent into its formula. Where does 25 percent come from? Is it related to our work? I don't know. The reciprocal tariffs have enormous implications for workers, firms, consumers and stock markets around the globe. But the methodology note offers shockingly few details. Had the trade office instead used a value closer to the 95 percent number from our work, as I believe it should have done, the computed tariffs would have been as little as one-fourth of what they are. As a result of these and other methodological choices, Wednesday's reciprocal tariffs will bring average tariff rates to their highest level in over 100 years. Their breadth is striking, hitting large economies such as China and Europe, and also small developing and emerging-market countries including Jordan and Zambia. And despite being billed as a 'do unto others' trade policy, they are not calculated in line with the Bible's golden rule. I would strongly prefer that the policy and methodology be scrapped entirely. But barring that, the administration should divide its results by four.
Yahoo
28-01-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
FuturHealth Appoints Dr. Brian Solow, Dual Board-Certified Obesity Medicine Expert, to Advisory Team
Dr. Solow's Expertise is posted to Guide FuturHealth's Expansion in Personalized Weight Loss Solutions SAN DIEGO, Jan. 28, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- FuturHealth, a leading provider of personalized weight-loss solutions, today announced the appointment of Dr. Brian Solow to its medical advisory team. Dr. Solow brings more than 30 years of experience in healthcare, including obesity care, clinical research, and the integration of GLP-1 medications into sustainable weight-loss treatments. Dr. Solow most recently served as Chief Medical Officer at Optum Life Sciences, where he oversaw all clinical aspects of the business, including data and insights, clinical research, scientific consulting, value-based contracting, and digital research networks. His leadership at Optum Life Sciences advanced healthcare solutions for payers, providers, and life sciences organizations, leveraging cutting-edge data analytics and healthcare expertise. Prior to that, Dr. Solow served as Chief Medical Officer at OptumRx, where he was instrumental in refining clinical services, formulary development, and medication therapy management. He is recognized as a national and international thought leader and innovator in the field of managed care, and pharmacy care services, including obesity medicine. "We are thrilled to have Dr. Solow join our medical advisory board at such a pivotal growth stage of the company. His unparalleled expertise in obesity medicine and experience with integrating cutting-edge therapies, like GLP-1s, will be invaluable as we continue to redefine personalized weight loss solutions," said Luke Mahoney, co-founder and CEO of FuturHealth. "His leadership in the field and patient-first mindset make him a perfect fit for our mission. With Dr. Solow's guidance, we're confident that we will continue to innovate and deliver transformative results for our patients across the nation." FuturHealth takes a holistic approach to weight loss with a platform that supports patients throughout the journey, beginning with a personalized quiz, ensuring that each user's unique body, goals, and needs shape their weight loss plan. Following this, users receive ongoing virtual consultations with licensed medical providers, offering customized treatment plans, coaching, and support. Doctor- and dietitian-designed meal plans provide essential nutritional guidance, empowering users to develop sustainable habits during and after GLP-1 treatment, leading to lasting weight loss. "I am incredibly excited to join FuturHealth's advisory team and contribute to their innovative approach to weight loss care. The integration of personalized treatments, including the use of GLP-1 medications, offers tremendous potential to improve long-term patient outcomes," said Dr. Solow. "I look forward to working with a team that is so committed to combining scientific advancements with a holistic, patient-centered model of care. FuturHealth's vision aligns with my passion for advancing obesity medicine and supporting patients in achieving sustainable health and wellness." Dr. Solow is a nationally recognized speaker on a broad range of health care topics and has served on many US and International advisory boards including the FDA and Health Technology assessment committees. He is a veteran of the US Air Force Medical Core and earned his MD at New York Medical College while completing his post-graduate work through UCLA. FuturHealth is redefining weight loss by combining personalized care, cutting-edge technology, and expert guidance, empowering patients to achieve lasting health and wellness. For more information about FuturHealth's innovative approach, visit About FuturHealth:FuturHealth is your partner in weight loss, providing personalized guidance designed to work with your everyday life. Together with a team of doctors, dieticians, and weight-loss experts, we combine scientifically-proven medications with clinically-crafted, expertly-curated meals for quick, easy, effective, and affordable wins. Founded with a mission to create a holistic and personalized alternative to traditional, one-size-fits-all weight-loss solutions, we meet each person where they are on their unique journey, empowering them to confidently take control of their well-being at every step of the way. With a network of 350+ providers across 48 states, FuturHealth has transformed the lives of over 1.5 million patients and counting. In under a year, it has achieved an extraordinary 980% growth in active patients and facilitated over 6 billion online interactions. View original content to download multimedia: SOURCE FuturHealth Sign in to access your portfolio
