Latest news with #SpaceAge
The Hindu
27-05-2025
- Science
- The Hindu
The dawn of autonomous satellites and the legal vacuum above us
When the Soviet Union launched the Sputnik satellite in 1957, it started the Space Age as the beeping metal sphere transmitted radio signals. Since then, satellites have grown in complexity but their core functions have remained surprisingly static. Most still function as passive tools: capturing images, relaying communications, beaming GPS coordinates to the earth, and so on. But a quiet revolution is now underway above us. Satellites are becoming smarter, powered by artificial intelligence (AI), and autonomous. Now, say an autonomous satellite operated by a private company malfunctions in orbit. The AI system onboard mistakenly interprets a routine atmospheric anomaly as a collision threat and initiates an unplanned evasive manoeuvre. In doing so, it crosses dangerously close to a military reconnaissance satellite belonging to a rival nation. A crash is narrowly averted but not before that nation lodges a diplomatic protest and alleges hostile intent. The satellite's AI system was developed in one country, launched by another, operated from a third, and registered by a fourth. Who is liable? Who is accountable? Understanding autonomous satellites AI is transforming satellites from passive observers into active, thinking machines. Thanks to recent breakthroughs — from large AI models powering popular applications like ChatGPT to smaller, energy-efficient systems capable of running on smartphones — engineers are now able to fit satellites with onboard AI. This onboard intelligence is technically called satellite edge computing and allows satellites to analyse their environment, make decisions, and act autonomously like self-driving cars on the ground. These AI-powered satellites are emerging from prestigious national labs and startup garages alike and possess game-changing applications: Automated space operations: Independent manoeuvring in space to perform tasks like docking, inspections, in-orbit refuelling, and debris removal Self-diagnosis and repair:Monitoring their own health, identifying faults, and executing repairs without human intervention Route planning: Optimising orbital trajectories to avoid hazards and obstacles or to save fuel Targeted geospatial intelligence: Detecting disasters and other events of interest in real-time from orbit and coordinating with other satellites intelligently to prioritise areas of interest Combat support: Providing real-time threat identification and potentially enabling autonomous target tracking and engagement, directly from orbit Smarter sats, smarter risks This autonomy is not without consequence. AI hallucinations are becoming an important source of misinformation on the ground and they pose a similar threat in the space domain. A satellite hallucinating, misclassifying a harmless commercial satellite as hostile, and responding with defensive actions is currently entirely uncharted territory. Misjudgments like this could escalate tensions between nations and even trigger a geopolitical crisis. As satellites become more intelligent and autonomous, the stakes rise concomitantly. Intelligence brings not just power but also responsibility in technological design and legal, ethical, and geopolitical oversight. In particular, AI's ability to confer autonomy to satellites exposes gaps in the Outer Space Treaty (OST) 1967 and the Convention for International Liability for Damage Caused by Space Objects of 1972. The OST's assignment of state responsibility for space activities (Article VI), liability for damage (VII), and the Liability Convention's liability provisions assume a human is in control — but AI autonomy challenges this. For example, the 'authorisation and continuing supervision' concept in the OST is rendered ambiguous and the Liability Convention's definitions struggle with AI-caused incidents. The core legal dilemma is fault attribution: who is liable when an AI's decision causes a collision: the launching state, the operator, the developer, or the AI? This human-AI gap coupled with transnational space ventures entangles accountability in jurisdictional and contractual complexities. Further, AI's dual-use capabilities (i.e. civilian + military) create misinterpretation risks in geopolitically sensitive contexts. Addressing these shortcomings requires adapting legal principles, developing new governance frameworks, and in all a multifaceted approach that adapts existing legal frameworks as well as develops new governance mechanisms. Legal and technical solutions Space safety amid AI developments demands synchronised legal and technical evolution. A first step is categorising satellite autonomy levels, similar to autonomous vehicle regulations, with stricter rules for more autonomous systems. Enshrining meaningful human control in space law is crucial, as the 2024 IISL Working Group's Final Report on Legal Aspects of AI in Space emphasised. Global certification frameworks, such as those under the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space or the International Standards Organisations, could test how satellite AI handles collisions or sensor faults; subject it to adversarial (but controlled) tests with unexpected data; and log key decisions like manoeuvres for later review. Since they manage high-risk, cross-border operations, the aviation and maritime sectors offer useful templates. The 1996 International Convention on Liability and Compensation for Damage in Connection with the Carriage of Hazardous and Noxious Substances (a.k.a. HNS) and the 1999 Convention for the Unification of Certain Rules for International Carriage by Air use strict liability and pooled insurance to simplify compensation. These models could inform space law, where a single AI malfunction may affect multiple actors. Ethical, geopolitical imperatives AI in space raises critical ethical and geopolitical concerns as well. The potential for AI-driven autonomous weapons is a topic of ongoing discussions within the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons and its Group of Governmental Experts on Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems. It raises critical concerns about the lack of human control and the risk of escalation, concerns that are equally applicable to the development of autonomous weapons in space. Thus, international safeguards to prevent an arms race in that domain are necessary. Ethical data governance is also vital thanks to the vast amount of data AI satellites collect and the attendant privacy and misuse risks. Since autonomy can also inadvertently escalate tensions, international cooperation is as crucial as legal and technical development. Shared orbits, shared responsibilities The rise of AI-powered satellites marks a defining moment in humanity's use of outer space. But with thousands of autonomous systems projected to operate in low-earth orbit by 2030, the probability of collisions, interference or geopolitical misinterpretation is rising rapidly. Autonomy offers speed and efficiency but also introduces instability without legal clarity. History shows that every technological leap demands corresponding legal innovation. Railways required tort law. Automobiles brought about road safety legislation. The digital revolution led to cybersecurity and data protection regimes. Space autonomy now demands a regulatory architecture that balances innovation with precaution and sovereignty with shared stewardship. We are entering an era where the orbits above us are not just physical domains but algorithmically governed decision spaces. The central challenge is not merely our ability to build intelligent autonomous satellites but our capacity to develop equally intelligent laws and policies to govern their use, demanding urgent international collaboration to ensure legal frameworks keep pace with technological advancements in space. Shrawani Shagun is pursuing a PhD at National Law University, Delhi, focusing on environmental sustainability and space governance. Leo Pauly is founder and CEO, Plasma Orbital.
Wales Online
23-05-2025
- Science
- Wales Online
Space Age arrives in Wales as rocket launched from new testing facility
Space Age arrives in Wales as rocket launched from new testing facility A high-altitude balloon was also dispatched to the edge of space The airfield's new Space Test & Training Centre (STTC) blasts off in style (Image: Snowdonia Aerospace Centre ) The Space Age has officially arrived in north Wales following the formal opening of cutting-edge testing facilities in Eryri (Snowdonia). Excitement soared at Llanbedr, Gwynedd, during the grand opening of the Space Test and Training Centre (STTC), with a rocket launch among the displays on show. A host of demonstrations featuring state-of-the-art equipment left dignitaries in awe, with the UK Space Agency's launch director Matt Archer, hailing the STTC as a "significant step forward for the UK's space capabilities". The STTC proudly showcased its impressive arsenal of tools for space exploration including a centrifuge and a vibration table. The newly built centre also has a sophisticated thermal-cycling vacuum chamber among other cutting-edge utilities geared to ensure that Britain's space-bound tech can endure the harsh climes of space environments. With both vertical and horizontal launch options thanks to its versatile rail launchers, the centre is geared up for an array of space missions. For our free daily briefing on the biggest issues facing the nation, sign up to the Wales Matters newsletter here Preparing for lift-off (Image: Snowdonia Aerospace Centre ) In celebration of this significant milestone, Norfolk-based company Launch Access impressed attendees with a live rocket firing show, while a high-altitude balloon ascended into the sky, by Sent Into Space from Sheffield. Article continues below Visitors to the newly-launched space centre were thrilled by the ability to track a CubeSat nanosatellite's journey towards the brink of space from the comfort of the STTC mission control room, reports North Wales Live. The state-of-the-art facility is the result of a collaboration between the Snowdonia Aerospace Centre and Newton Launch Systems. Its establishment was bolstered by £820,000 funding from the UK Space Agency, contributing to over £1.3 million in overall funding. Novel space and near-space technology will be developed at the new testing centre (Image: Snowdonia Aerospace Centre ) UK telecoms minister Sir Chris Bryant heralded the Llanbedr site as a pivotal step for Britain's "space superpower". He said: "The opening of the Snowdonia Space Centre cements our commitment to building a space ecosystem right across the UK. "The centre will not only drive economic growth in North Wales but also inspire the next generation of scientists and engineers through its outstanding educational facilities, strengthening Britain's position as a space superpower." The new centre presents companies with affordable entry to high-grade testing grounds, fostering hopes that it will enable the innovation and creation of new tech and products. Welsh Government Cabinet Secretary Rebecca Evans expressed her delight at attending the official opening of a new centre, describing it as a "real privilege". Alongside representatives from Space Wales, she remarked: "This is a landmark moment not only for the local community – bringing new opportunities, skills, and investment to the region – but also for the wider UK space sector. "Facilities like this will play a crucial role in delivering our National Space Strategy for Wales, strengthening Wales' position as a hub for innovation and helping drive forward the UK's space ambitions." The Snowdonia Aerospace Centre (SAC), situated at the former Llanbedr Airfield, already provides access to Special Use Airspace (SUA) for the development of innovative aerospace systems in the UK, with approval from the Civil Aviation Authority. The SUA has been expanded over Cardigan Bay to support the centre's space testing programme, which includes a larger area for various activities. Additionally, the SAC boasts a flight test range that caters to different aspects of space flight, including rocket-powered vehicles, near-space scientific flights, microgravity research, and trials for re-entry vehicles and payload recovery systems. The centre also plays a vital role in education, offering facilities to support university-level research and STEM learning for primary and secondary students. It has already hosted numerous events focused on rocketry and cansat projects for Welsh pupils. Jeremy Howitt, SAC's technical director, expressed his hopes for the centre by saying: "As well as providing much needed testing facilities to the UK space industry, we hope the centre will help to stimulate local and national interest in the space industry and inspire more young people to engage in a career in the space industry." Article continues below Plans for expanding educational facilities are also on the cards, with ambitions to eventually introduce a new Space Discovery Centre that would include observatories and a planetarium, aimed at boosting astrotourism. Lee Paul, SAC's CEO, enthused about the location's potential: "We are in one of the most accessible and spectacular Dark Skies settings in the world!"
North Wales Live
22-05-2025
- Science
- North Wales Live
Live rocket firing launches Space Age in North Wales
The Space Age arrived in North Wales today (Thursday, May 22) with the formal opening of state-of-the-art testing facilities in Eryri (Snowdonia). A rocket was launched and a high-altitude balloon was dispatched to the edge of space from a disused airfield at Llanbedr, Gwynedd. The new Space Test & Training Centre (STTC) blasted off in style with a series of demonstrations for gathered dignitaries. Among those watching on the UK Space Agency's launch director Matt Archer, who said the new facilities were a 'significant step forward for the UK's space capabilities'. Testing facilities at the newly built STTC includes a centrifuge, vibration table, aerostructures rig and teaching laboratory. Also on site is a thermal-cycling vacuum chamber that simulates the extreme temperatures and near-vacuum of space environments – the idea is to test whether newly developed systems can withstand these conditions. The centre also features a rocket engine test stand and two variable inclination rail launchers. These enable both vertical launches for rockets, and horizontal launches for rocket planes. To mark the facility's unveiling, a live rocket firing demonstration was successfully conducted by Norfolk's Launch Access. In addition, a high-altitude balloon was launched by Sheffield-based Sent Into Space. Via its attached CubeSat nanosatellite, visitors could view and track its progress to the edge of space from the STTC mission control room. The new hi-tech centre is a joint venture between the Snowdonia Aerospace Centre and Newton Launch Systems. To support its development, it received £820,000 from the UK Space Agency as part of a total investment in excess £1.3m. UK telecoms minister Sir Chris Bryant said the Llanbedr facility will help the UK develop into a 'space superpower'. He said: 'The opening of the Snowdonia Space Centre cements our commitment to building a space ecosystem right across the UK. 'The centre will not only drive economic growth in North Wales but also inspire the next generation of scientists and engineers through its outstanding educational facilities, strengthening Britain's position as a space superpower.' For the space industry, the new centre provides low-cost access to testing facilities. It is hoped the site will enable companies to accelerate the development of new products and technologies. Welsh Government Cabinet Secretary Rebecca Evans said being at the centre's official opening was a 'real privilege'. Also present were representatives from Space Wales. She added: 'This is a landmark moment not only for the local community – bringing new opportunities, skills, and investment to the region – but also for the wider UK space sector. 'Facilities like this will play a crucial role in delivering our National Space Strategy for Wales, strengthening Wales' position as a hub for innovation and helping drive forward the UK's space ambitions.' Snowdonia Aerospace Centre (SAC) already provides access to Special Use Airspace (SUA) immediately around the former Llanbedr Airfield. This use has been approved by the Civil Aviation Authority to support the ongoing development of novel aerospace systems in the UK. To accommodate its space testing programme, the SUA has now been extended to include a larger area over Cardigan Bay. Also at the STTC is a flight test range for trialling various modes of space flight. This provides a dedicated area for rocket-powered vehicles, near-space scientific flights, microgravity research and trials of re-entry vehicles and payload recovery systems. Another crucial remit of the STTC is to provide educational facilities to support universities as well as primary and secondary STEM learning. Already it has hosted several rocketry and cansat-focused STEM events for Welsh pupils. Jeremy Howitt, SAC's technical director, said: 'As well as providing much needed testing facilities to the UK space industry, we hope the centre will help to stimulate local and national interest in the space industry and inspire more young people to engage in a career in the space industry.' It is hoped education and other facilities opportunities can be expanded over time. A key plan, with astrotourism also in mind, is the creation of a new Space Discovery Centre featuring observatories and a planetarium. 'We are in one of the most accessible and spectacular Dark Skies settings in the world!' noted SAC CEO Lee Paul.
Yahoo
11-05-2025
- Health
- Yahoo
This Designer Is Fighting the Stigma Around Medical Therapy, Aging, and Intimacy Through Interiors That "Pull You Out of the Everyday"
When you buy through links on our articles, Future and its syndication partners may earn a commission. That beauty and well-being clinics are increasingly sought-after is no big news. After all, there hasn't been a single era more obsessed with surface-level improvement — think of the rise (and rise) of cosmetic surgery — and preventative health — think of that of diagnostic scans-equipped centers — than the one we are in right now. The evidence is all over the internet, where countless 'before and after' social media posts attest to the transformative power of aesthetics-led surgical procedures or longevity-aiding measures that promise to protect our body from the signs of time, like the below-zero cryotherapy, which exposes patients to extremely low temperatures to facilitate muscle recovery and destroy cells associated with specific illnesses. What's fairly new, though, is the arrival of unusually imaginative dental, aging, and fitness hubs where interior excellence, chromotherapy, and craftsmanship meet state-of-the-art lifestyle. Traditionally, health isn't the sector you'd expect to champion forward-thinking design. Sure, there have been exceptions to the rule, like NYC's dazzling Zitomer pharmacy, which, founded in 1950 and located in Manhattan's iconic Upper East Side, was brought back to its former Art Deco glory by RPG's Bruce Teitelbaum in 2021, now reviving its original apothecary look through statement lighting, soft arched walls, and plush velvety touches. But most of these creatively envisioned, well-being-focused destinations are only just opening their doors. This March, a retro-futuristic "aging management" clinic housed within a 1925 palazzo, where James Turrell-style porthole windows, opaque chrome finishes, and neon lights meet polished marbles, coffered ceilings, and classical floor mosaics, landed in Milan courtesy of Doctor Giulio Borbon's namesake Studio. Dressed in custom-made Prada staff scrubs, his team helps patients enhance their natural appearance through meticulous procedures informed by a search for harmony. Meanwhile, in London, Neko Health's just-unveiled utopian scanning suite — a pastel-shaded, sinuous architectural exercise that looks straight out of Severance — grants people a thorough overview of their physical condition in less than ten minutes, along with a crash course in Space Age design. These centers' cinematic feel makes them immediately pleasing to the eye. Still, the benefits of wellness design go beyond fleeting first impressions. "What gets me most excited about my job is collaborating with CEOs who are on a mission to change consumer behavior, whether that be reducing the stigma around sexual wellness and going to the doctor, or what that experience feels like," Madelynn Ringo, founder of Brooklyn-based architectural design firm Ringo Studio, tells me. A Yale University graduate, she started off working at more traditional architecture practices before discovering her interest in developing concepts and spaces for the public after joining American beauty brand Glossier as a Senior Retail Designer in 2019, where she contributed to crafting the storytelling, shopping experience, and interiors of the house's Miami, Boston, Austin, and Atlanta outposts. Since establishing her studio, which launched in August the following year, Madelynn has continuously cherished the lessons learned through those immersive projects to come up with destinations that "connect with people in a way that feels new and unique to that location". Today, her portfolio, characterized by a sculptural, multisensory use of materials, eye-catching, albeit largely muted, hues, and a particular attention to how the structure of specific spaces can make us feel, "is split 50/50 between wellness and retail brands," explains the designer. Over the last five years, she has lent her artful vision to anything from oral health practices and sexual and aging wellness-dedicated spaces to the ever-evolving fitness universe, realizing stores and medical clinics that promote a more joyful and less sterile and impersonal conception of these places. So, what are the key rules to succeed at this game, and why do they matter? "Our number one rule is to avoid anything that feels generic or expected," Madelynn says, reflecting on how, with the oversaturation of visual experiences we are all subjected to on social media, "there is a risk for everything to start becoming the same." This is something that, she explains, can be prevented by being intentional and playful about color, engaging viewers with a complex, nuanced scheme that unfolds organically, as well as lighting, both of which are crucial to foster wayfinding — or the act of using any available cues to navigate a physical environment — and storytelling within a space. The third component of every Ringo Studio project, and particularly those executed in the realm of wellness design, is "the making of a sculptural space". A quick glance at any of them will reveal how "we play along with a lot of curves — [a stylistic choice] that comes from my own reaction to things that are more human and soft, and that make me feel more comfortable and safe," the designer says. Her sensitivity to specific shapes and silhouettes is what allows her to bring her soothing understanding of interiors to life, "because thinking about the design is one thing, but considering how others react to it is where you really start to combine wellness strategy and aesthetics together". That's also where sequencing, or experimenting with volumes and shades to guide people through space, comes into play. "When somebody enters a space, it's a big moment," Madelynn says. "They're leaving whatever it is that they just came from to interact with this environment for the first time, which is why the entry sequence is crucial to transporting them to a different mindset." Sequencing occurs when, "from room to room, your color palette changes, but it can also come from a sculptural alteration, or how you purposefully compress a space and then move somebody into a much wider, open-plan one," she says. More than just a design element, "it's about taking somebody on a journey," adds the designer. "Think about when someone is transitioning from a welcome reception down a hallway into a treatment room at a health center, for example; there should be visual cues that excite each of those and build anticipation." From a lobby and a corridor to a door handle, every aspect of wellness-oriented destinations should consider how those walking through them will feel. Psychologically, a long, narrow room with a series of doors can upset you, Madelynn says, referring to the structure of many medical facilities, including hospitals. "Focusing on evoking a sense of calm and trust within the person experiencing it, you can totally change their mindset and feelings about something they previously found intimidating," she adds. Her favorite commission so far, a stunningly curated, moody retail concept for sexual wellness brand Contact Sports in SoHo, put that into practice. The brief was simple: "undoing the taboo about shopping for sex toys by leaning into the label's narrative". Upon entering the space, people would be met by a flower shop-like counter blooming with red roses as a "gesture from the house". This was followed by a nostalgic succession of wood-paneled rooms imbued with a 1970s burgundy, emerald, and dark walnut palette, each boasting carefully styled clothing rails and shelves stacked with retro sports heirlooms. Rather than feeding into the stereotypical idea of what a sex shop looks like, the designer aimed for a space "that felt elevated and inherently experiential". "Even before you saw the merchandise, we had already taken you somewhere else," she says. "Evoking a sense of trust within the person experiencing a space, you can totally change their feelings about something they previously found intimidating" Past that first environment, "visitors were guided into what felt like a locker room, where the ceiling was lowered and the lighting got softer, more diffused, and glowing," Madelynn continues. Finally, they reached a taller platform in a third room, where a sculptural, semicircular lounge area, decorated with a custom rug, a large-scale, baseball glove-shaped armchair, original photography, and more products, "offered customers the opportunity to stop for a moment and hang out". It was a collaboration that enabled Studio Ringo to "become really tongue-in-cheek, extravagant, and inventive with our style," says the founder. This is something that came as an evolution of her detail-oriented, slowly-revealing approach to interior design, which is particularly tangible at Modern Age, an integrated aging wellness center she designed in New York a couple of years back. Here, "there was a really dramatic, curvy light sculpture at the top of each treatment chair. Whenever a customer was brought in, the light was a certain color and level of brightness, but then, when they were ready to receive their IV treatment, clinicians would dim it to a comforting, warm amber tone," Madelynn explains. This way, "the lighting wasn't just sequenced for when they arrived, but it even had operational features that could add to different moments within that experience." Earthy, organic neutrals like terracotta, ochre, or a chocolatey brown and sea-inspired shades like petrol green are the first hues that come to mind when I think of colors that help me feel grounded. But the designer insists palette guidelines aren't as strict as you'd think when it comes to building a scheme that feels as welcoming and evocative as peace-inducing. "If used strategically, all color can have a positive influence on those who experience a space and their emotions," she says. Doing so means finding ways to connect your chosen material palette to the core narrative and story of the project. SAMA, the oral health practice set up in Flatiron by dentist Jaskaren Randhawa to encourage a holistic approach to well-being, starting with the teeth's own, is a prime example of that. In Sanskrit, "'sama' means balance," Madelynn explains. To render the relationship between nature and wellness at the heart of the founder's mission, "we tapped into this sagey green color that was applied in different highlighted moments throughout the space," she recalls. Elsewhere, like at a forthcoming bath house the designer is still finalizing, "we are exploring deeply saturated, burned reds, which signal comfort, warmth, and heat, balancing them with light, airy shades that, together, nod back to the hot-cold therapy that serves as the concept of the business". Meanwhile, for Modern Age, which sought to remove the shame around aging management, she selected colors that immediately uplifted those who stepped in "to acknowledge and take care of their health", like a peachy tan, a baby blue, and a pop of chartreuse — bold hues that "besides differentiating the hub from the rest of the industry, created a combination that made visitors feel immediately relieved, happy, and lighter". Searching for new ways to let this invigorating, 'surprise-effect' side of design manifest in her work is what drives Madelynn forward. "The spaces I'm most interested in designing are spaces where I see a lack of design, or an opportunity for it," she says, hinting at how her research spills outside of working hours. Need an example? "When I lie on my mat at the gym, staring at the ceiling, I'm like, 'why isn't the ceiling beautiful?' We're looking at it for so long in this class, but it's not being taken into consideration as something that could enhance the experience," the designer explains. Along with crafting a full spa, envisioning a female-focused gym is high on the list of her aspirations. "If we think about the interior aesthetics and the decisions that have been made in most fitness centers, they all feel very masculine-oriented," she says. "The decor is clear-cut and rough, but could a different design strategy help make those spaces more comfortable and inviting for women? Does a gym necessarily have to feel so raw and bare, or can it be immersive, like some of the other wellness spaces that we're seeing today?" The answer, of course, is clear in her work.
Yahoo
08-05-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Earth's orbit is filling up with junk. Greenhouse gases are making the problem worse.
At any given moment, more than 10,000 satellites are whizzing around the planet at roughly 17,000 miles per hour. This constellation of machinery is the technological backbone of modern life, making GPS, weather forecasts, and live television broadcasts possible. But space is getting crowded. Ever since the Space Age dawned in the late 1950s, humans have been filling the skies with trash. The accumulation of dead satellites, chunks of old rockets, and other litter numbers in the tens of millions and hurdles along at speeds so fast that even tiny bits can deliver lethal damage to a spacecraft. Dodging this minefield is already a headache for satellite operators, and it's poised to get a lot worse—and not just because humans are now launching thousands of new crafts each year. All the excess carbon dioxide generated by people burning fossil fuels is shrinking the upper atmosphere, exacerbating the problem with space junk, Grist explains. New research, published in Nature Sustainability on March 10, found that if emissions don't fall, as few as 25 million satellites—about half the current capacity—would be able to safely operate in orbit by the end of the century. That leaves room for just 148,000 in the orbital range that most satellites use, which isn't as plentiful as it sounds: A report from the U.S. Government Accountability Office in 2022 estimated that as many as 60,000 new satellites will crowd our skies by 2030. According to reports, Elon Musk's SpaceX alone wants to deploy 42,000 of its Starlink satellites. "The environment is very cluttered already. Satellites are constantly dodging right and left," said William Parker, a Ph.D. researcher in the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics and the lead author of the study. In a recent six-month period, SpaceX's Starlink satellites had to steer around obstacles 50,000 times. "As long as we are emitting greenhouse gases, we are increasing the probability that we see more collision events between objects in space," Parker said. Until recently, the effects of greenhouse gas emissions on the upper atmosphere were so understudied that scientists dubbed it the "ignorosphere." But research using modern satellite data has revealed that, paradoxically, the carbon dioxide that warms the lower atmosphere is dramatically cooling the upper atmosphere, causing it to shrink like a balloon that's been left in the cold. That leaves thinner air at the edge of space. The problem is that atmospheric density is the only thing that naturally pulls space junk out of orbit. Earth's atmosphere doesn't suddenly give way to the vacuum of space but gets dramatically thinner at a point known as the Kármán line, roughly 100 kilometers up. Objects that orbit the planet are dragged down by the lingering air density, spiraling closer to the planet until eventually reentering the atmosphere, often burning up as they do. According to the nonprofit Aerospace Corporation, the lowest orbiting debris takes only a few months to get dragged down. But most satellites operate in a zone called "low Earth orbit," between 200 and 2,000 kilometers up, and can take hundreds to thousands of years to fall. The higher outermost reaches of Earth's influence are referred to as a "graveyard" orbit that can hold objects for millions of years. "We rely on the atmosphere to clean out everything that we have in space, and it does a worse job at that as it contracts and cools," Parker said. "There's no other way for it to come down. If there were no atmosphere, it would stay up there indefinitely." Parker's study found that in a future where emissions remain high, the atmosphere would lose so much density that half as many satellites could feasibly fit around all the debris stuck in space. Nearly all of them would need to squeeze into the bottom of low Earth orbit, where they would regularly need to use their thrusters to avoid getting dragged down. Between 400 kilometers and 1,000 kilometers, where most satellites operate, as few as 148,000 would be safe. More than that, and the risk of satellites crashing into debris or each other poses a threat to the space industry. "The debris from any collision could go on to destroy more satellites," said Jonathan McDowell, an astronomer at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics in Massachusetts who was not involved with the Nature study. "And so you can get a chain reaction where all the satellites are hitting each other, breaking up, and creating more and more debris." This domino effect, commonly known as Kessler syndrome, could fill the orbit around Earth with so much destructive clutter that launching or operating satellites becomes impossible. It's the runaway scenario, the paper cautions, which will make greenhouse gas emissions more likely. "But the chain reaction doesn't happen overnight," McDowell said. "You just slowly choke more and more on your own filth." According to the European Space Agency, at least 650 breakups, explosions, or collisions have flung their wreckage into space since space exploration started. Space surveillance networks, like the U.S. Space Force, are currently tracking nearly 40,000 pieces of debris, some as large as a car. At least 130 million objects smaller than 10 centimeters are also estimated to be orbiting Earth but are too tiny to be monitored. Scientists have recently been researching ways to remove this debris by, as McDowell metaphorically put it, "sending garbage trucks into space." In 2022, a Chinese satellite successfully grabbed hold of a defunct one by matching its speed before towing it into graveyard orbit. In 2024, a Japanese company, Astroscale, managed to maneuver a retrieval device within 15 meters of a discarded rocket—close enough to magnetically capture it—before backing away. "In general, it's an environmental problem being stored up for future generations," McDowell said. "Are we going to hit our capacity? I think we're going to find out the hard way." This story was produced by Grist and reviewed and distributed by Stacker.
