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Japan Seeks to Cut Nankai Trough Earthquake Deaths by 80 percent; Disaster Plan Revisions Also Aim to Halve Property Damage
Yomiuri Shimbun file photo
The Prime Minister's Office in Tokyo
The government aims to reduce by 80% the number of deaths caused by collapsed houses and other direct damage from a massive earthquake along the Nankai Trough, according to a draft for a basic disaster prevention promotion plan the government will revise based on the latest damage estimates for a magnitude-8 to -9 earthquake.
It also seeks to halve the number of houses destroyed by such a quake.
In the draft for the revised plan seen by The Yomiuri Shimbun, the government will set numerical targets for 134 priority measures, with the aim to achieve them within 10 years. This will be the first fundamental revision of the plan, which was established in 2014.
In March, the government released a report that put the estimated death toll from direct damage at up to 298,000 in the event of a massive earthquake along the trough, which extends from off Shizuoka Prefecture to Miyazaki Prefecture. It also estimated that 52,000 people would die indirectly from the disaster and 2.35 million houses would be destroyed.
Massive earthquakes in this region along the trough have been documented with an average recurrence period of about 100 to 150 years. The government has estimated that if a Nankai Trough quake occurs, 707 cities, towns and villages in 29 prefectures could be hit by a strong tremor or large tsunami.
The government's Earthquake Research Committee has said the probability of a magnitude-8 or -9 megaquake occurring in the Nankai Trough within the next 30 years is 'around 80%.'
The revised disaster prevention promotion plan is scheduled to be approved at a meeting of the Central Disaster Management Council as early as July.
According to the draft, the government will emphasize the revision will focus on measures to 'protect and sustain the lives of people' based on the new damage estimates. These measures will concentrate on preventing direct deaths, and will include such steps as raising the completion rate for sea embankments with sufficient height to withstand tsunami to 50% in 2030, up from 42% in 2023.
Many volunteer firefighters died while closing floodgates at the time of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, and the revised plan will state that measures will be promoted to operate floodgates automatically and remotely.
The percentage of social welfare facilities with brick walls resistant to earthquakes will also be increased to 53% in 2030 from 20% in 2022.
Among measures to maintain lifelines, the proportion of important facilities with water and sewerage systems that have undergone quake-resistance work will be increased to 32% in 2030, up from 12% in 2023.
Deaths from indirect causes were prominent in the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake and the 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake. To help prevent this, the government aims to ensure that all municipalities satisfy the Sphere Standards — a set of internationally recognized principles and minimum humanitarian standards in four areas of response, including shelter and settlement — by 2030.
The government's steps will include securing equipment such as portable beds.
