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U.S. Intel Says Iran Isn't a Nuclear Threat. Israel Wants the U.S. to Bomb It Anyway.
Israel launched its war with Iran last week with what it called a 'preemptive strike.'
Iran — according to the Israeli government — was dangerously close to producing a nuclear weapon, and Israel needed to carry out a series of assassinations of military leadership, bombings in residential neighborhoods, and attacks on nuclear production sites to stop them.
The U.S. has been providing direct military support in the days since, using its defensive weapons systems to shoot down ballistic missiles that Iran launched in retaliation for Israel's surprise attack.
Israel wants more. Only the U.S. is in possession of the 30,000-pound 'bunker buster' bombs that Israel says can punch through and destroy Iran's underground nuclear enrichment facility in Fordow. Israel is calling on the U.S. to join the war and launch a series of attacks end Iran's nuclear threat.
But according to the U.S. intelligence community, that threat is not real.
'We continue to assess Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and that [Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei has not reauthorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003, though pressure has probably built on him to do so,' reads the 2025 Annual Threat Assessment, the intelligence community's official evaluation of threats to U.S. citizens, 'the Homeland,' and U.S. interests which was published in March.
On Saturday, Susan Miller, the former CIA station chief in Israel who retired from the agency in 2024, told SpyTalk that current officials maintained that assessment.
Iran has repeatedly said it does not intend to build a nuclear weapon but insists on being allowed to develop nuclear power for the country's needs. Israel is estimated to possess 90 nuclear warheads and may have the ability to launch attacks with them by land, sea, and air.
That has not stopped the Trump administration from underwriting Israel's war with Iran and running the risk of getting drawn further into the conflict, according to experts.
Trump himself has adopted the Israeli framing of needing to prevent Iran from producing a nuclear weapon. 'What a shame, and waste of human life,' Trump wrote on TruthSocial on Monday. 'Simply stated, IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. I said it over and over again! Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!'
The U.S. has already poured billions into Israel's war machine, supplying it with advanced weaponry from fighter aircraft and tank ammunition to tactical vehicles and air-to-air missiles. The U.S. is also the primary supplier of all of Israel's combat aircraft and most of its bombs and missiles. These weapons are provided at little or no cost to Israel, with American taxpayers primarily picking up the tab. The U.S. has also consistently protected Israel at the United Nations, shielding it from international accountability.
'The Trump administration has basically lost control of its foreign policy. Israel is now dictating U.S. policy in the Middle East. They are clearly in the driver's seat,' Stephen Semler, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, told The Intercept. 'This makes Trump look incredibly weak. It should be a personal embarrassment. He's looking like a real chump.'
Israel's war began on Friday with a surprise attack that killed almost the entire top echelon of Iran's military commanders and its foremost nuclear scientists. Israel has since expanded its targets, attacking energy infrastructure and Iran's government news agency. The attacks have killed hundreds of civilians.
On Monday night, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth announced the deployment of 'additional capabilities to the Middle East' and said 'these deployments are intended to enhance our defensive posture.' The Pentagon refused to provide further clarification about the U.S. military build-up in the region.
The Israeli strikes have prompted waves of retaliatory ballistic missiles and drones from Iran. Israel said at least 24 people have been killed with about 600 injured. The U.S. military has repeatedly helped defend Israel from Iranian attacks. The Pentagon did not respond to questions about what American assets were used or how many interceptor missiles were employed to defend Israel.
Semler pointed out that even ignoring the tremendous ancillary costs associated with stationing a carrier group in the Middle East, the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, and Patriot missile batteries; operating the equipment; wear and tear; extra deployments; and bonus pay for troops — among many other costs — the price tag of just the interceptor missiles is immense. Each THAAD interceptor, for example, costs around $21 million.
'Imagine it, that's like blasting a bundle of 10 Bugatti Veyrons into the sky to shoot down just one missile coming from Iran,' said Semler referring to the $2 million supercar, one of the most expensive automobiles on the planet. 'Is it really worth it? Under Trump, just as under Biden, there is apparently no cost too high for the United States.'
An analysis by Brown University's Costs of War Project tallied up around $18 billion in military aid to Israel in the year following the start of Israel's war on Gaza on October 7, 2023. This represented far more than any other year since the U.S began providing military aid to Israel in 1959.
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