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OPEC+ Emerges as Pillar of Oil Market Stability
Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman told delegates at the St Petersburg Economic Forum on 19 June that OPEC+ has evolved into a 'key guarantor' of global oil prices and market stability. The alliance's capacity to respond to evolving economic and geopolitical realities distinguishes it as an effective and trustworthy instrument for safeguarding the sector.
At the forum, Prince Abdulaziz emphasised that OPEC+ adapts proactively to prevailing conditions. He was clear that any action by Riyadh or Moscow to offset potential disruptions in Iranian oil exports will be guided strictly by actual developments. 'We only react to realities,' he stated, declining to engage in hypotheticals—a stance aligned with OPEC+'s collective decision-making framework.
Analysts say his comments come amid a sharp surge in crude prices, driven by escalating tensions following an Israeli assault on Iranian nuclear infrastructure. According to Reuters, Brent crude has climbed more than $10 per barrel in just one week, inflating the geopolitical risk premium. Despite this volatility, there has been no significant disruption to Middle Eastern oil exports to date.
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Prince Abdulaziz underscored the cohesive nature of OPEC+, which comprises 22 member countries. He affirmed that decisions are taken collectively rather than unilaterally by dominant players, a principle reaffirmed by his preference to 'react to realities' rather than speculation. The alliance's next meeting is scheduled for 6 July, when eight core producers—including Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Algeria and Kazakhstan—will discuss production levels for August and beyond.
Global demand forecasts also featured prominently in forum discussions. OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais noted increasing consumption in developing economies, especially during the northern hemisphere summer, reinforcing the need for calibrated production policies. Meanwhile, Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia's RDIF, suggested that Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States might reprise their 2020-era role in stabilising oil markets, citing historical precedents from the pandemic response.
Despite the ability to moderate price swings, the alliance faces internal tensions. In May, Saudi Arabia and Russia spearheaded a 411,000 barrels‑per‑day production increase, despite earlier preferences among some members for a pause. Leaks from the meeting revealed discontent with non-compliant producers, prompting Riyadh to push through the increase to protect its market interests. Analysts suggest this indicates a strategic pivot: reclaiming market share over propping up prices alone.
Meanwhile, geopolitical variables are influencing OPEC+ strategy. Rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, following conflict between Israel and Iran, have elevated concerns of supply disruption. However, as of mid‑June, the vital maritime route continues to operate without incident. The U.S. is reportedly weighing deeper engagement in the region, a development that could further complicate supply dynamics and pricing.
The energy minister also highlighted collaboration beyond output quotas. Saudi Arabia and Russia are advancing joint efforts to create investor-friendly environments through joint ventures in energy and related sectors. Prince Abdulaziz confirmed plans for Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak to visit Riyadh later this year, accompanied by a large business delegation. He said the initiative aims to 'deepen bilateral economic ties and foster diversified investment opportunities,' affirming both countries' commitment to mutual investment facilitation.
These comments reinforce the perception of OPEC+ as a stabilising force comparable to a central bank's role in financial markets. Prince Abdulaziz described the alliance as 'the central bank and regulator of the global oil market,' emphasising its flexibility and responsiveness to global economic shifts. He further noted the Kingdom's support for Russia amid external pressures, affirming Riyadh's diplomatic solidarity.
Looking ahead, OPEC+ is poised to navigate the balance between maintaining price stability and managing production share. The upcoming 6 July meeting will be pivotal in determining whether the group confirms further increases or holds current output steady amid signal mixed signals from demand forecasts and geopolitical uncertainty.
