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Business Insider
3 days ago
- Business
- Business Insider
Here are the winners and losers in today's job market
The winners and losers of the workforce are coming into sharper focus. If you're looking for roles in healthcare or service work, you may have a very different experience than the white-collar workforce or new grads. Overall, the latest jobs data shows that the labor market isn't looking too shabby; the number of payrolls added in the Bureau of Labor Statistics' May report exceeded economists' expectations, and the unemployment rate held steady. But that doesn't mean all workers are navigating the labor market with ease. Instead, some are faring better than others. Cory Stahle, an economist at the Indeed Hiring Lab, said the new jobs report reflects that divide. "The headline number says the train keeps chugging along," Stahle said, "but at the same time, not everybody is experiencing that same thing." Here's who's winning in the job market right now A few industries stood out in the most recent jobs report. Employment in the private education and health services sector and the leisure and hospitality sector swelled. They alone accounted for over 100,000 new payrolls in May, and over the last three months have added around 374,000 jobs. In short, if you're trying to find a job in food service or home healthcare, the job market is in your favor. Other sectors that added roles in May include construction and retail trade, although not at the same clip. Daniel Zhao, lead economist at Glassdoor, said those service sectors have powered job growth, but "all of them have slowed in the first half of 2025 compared to the back half of 2024." There were also some winners in the white-collar world. Job-stayers — whether they still want to be there or not — are at least reaping some financial rewards. Average hourly earnings for workers in the information sector, which includes many aspects of tech, shot up from a year ago, as well as pay for those in professional and business services. For the white-collar workers who are waiting out the Big Stay, that's a win. Indeed, job stayers have a bit of a financial edge right now: Their raises are now slightly outpacing those of job switchers, per the Atlanta Federal Reserve, a big change from the days of the Great Resignation. Who's losing in the job market right now White-collar workers who are actively seeking a new role probably aren't feeling too hot; neither are new grads. Employment growth in the information sector has been nonexistent since February, while employment fell by 19,000 in professional and business services during that time. The job switching pay premium has evaporated, and companies are taking longer to fill available roles. One subsection of white-collar workers has reason to be especially nervous: Middle managers are getting flattened out of corporate structures in the name of efficiency. Then, of course, there's the bottom rung of the labor market: New graduates trying to land a full-time role. The share of recent college graduates with jobs that don't require a degree ticked up in March, according to the New York Federal Reserve's analysis. Similarly, that data shows recent college graduates ages 22 to 27 had higher unemployment rates compared to the larger 16- to 65-year-old workforce, a reversal from longer-term historical trends. "There's fewer people coming in, fewer people heading out," Guy Berger, the director of economic research at The Burning Glass Institute, said. "That mix tends to favor established workers who tend to be older and tends to hurt younger people trying to get their foot in the door." Stahle said college and high school graduates are entering a frozen labor market where the quits rate is low, people are staying put, and employers aren't really looking for new folks. "We're seeing unemployment rates rise most notably for those younger workers, college graduate-age workers — which is very different than what we've seen in the past, where those workers tend to do pretty well," Stahle said. Are you a job seeker, middle manager, or new grad with a story to share? Contact these reporters at jkaplan@ and .
Axios
4 days ago
- Business
- Axios
The "look under the hood" jobs report
The May jobs report looks fine on the surface, but underneath there are signs of weakening in the labor market. Why it matters: The good news is that employers kept hiring at a healthy rate in May. But a few oddities in the report signal less momentum in the job market. What they're saying:"There are now clear trends in the data, not just vague signs, that even if the train is chugging forward, more and more people are getting left behind at the station," Cory Stahle, an economist at job search site Indeed, wrote in a note. "This isn't a bad report, per se, but there are clear signs of erosion just below the surface that may not be apparent just by looking only at the headline numbers," Stahle said. By the numbers: Payroll employment rose by 139,000 in May, roughly in line with what forecasters had anticipated. But the Labor Department revised down job gains in March and April by a combined 95,000 jobs. Job growth has averaged 124,000 a month in 2025, a downshift from 168,000 in 2024. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate was steady at 4.2% — but that masked a steep drop in the number of Americans in the labor force. The share of adults who were employed fell 0.3 percentage points to 59.7%, the lowest in more than three years. It was due to a whopping 625,000 fewer people in the labor force — neither working nor looking for work. The intrigue: The bulk of job creation continued to be concentrated in what Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has called "government-adjacent" fields, including health care. That sector added 62,000 jobs last month, above the average monthly gain of 44,000 jobs over the prior 12 months. "The month's modest job gains were concentrated in non-cyclical sectors like healthcare," Comerica chief economist Bill Adams wrote in a note. "Job gains in other cyclical private industries were anemic, reflecting the drag from policy uncertainty." Of note: The federal government sector, which has been hit by DOGE-related layoffs, lost 22,000 jobs in May alone. It has shed 55,000 workers since January. (Local government employment rose by 21,000.) State of play: The reported size of the labor force can be volatile month-to-month just due to sampling error, but the drop in May was unusually large. It may have fallen because of potential workers becoming discouraged about job prospects, or it could be attributable to immigration cuts reducing the supply of labor, notes Nationwide chief economist Kathy Bostjancic. No rate cuts soon The new numbers are the worst of all worlds for those hoping for Fed interest rate cuts — including the guy in the Oval Office. State of play: The Fed is on high alert for any meaningful deterioration in the labor market, which could trigger interest rate cuts to try to fulfill its mandate for maximum employment. This report didn't provide that — it's hard to square a stable unemployment rate and solid payroll growth with the kind of falloff in the job market that would bring in the rate-cutting cavalry, no matter what the beneath-the-surface details show. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings rose 0.4% in May, an elevated level that suggests some residual inflation pressure remains in the job market. The policy-sensitive two-year Treasury yield was up a whopping 0.09 percentage points this morning on the news, reflecting expectations that rate cuts are looking more distant. Between the lines: The Fed's policy committee meets later this month and is all but certain to leave rates unchanged, consistent with its wait-and-see mode for the impact of the trade war on the economy. The meeting after that is in late July, but that means there will only be one more month of jobs data by then. A rate cut then also looks improbable, barring a complete collapse in the data in the weeks ahead. It's far more plausible that by September there will be enough evidence of a downshift in the job market and economic activity more broadly.
Business Insider
09-05-2025
- Business
- Business Insider
You're in for a reality check if you want to job-hop right now
If it ain't broke, don't fix it. For many workers, that well-worn bit of folk wisdom might be the best advice for deciding whether to switch jobs in 2025. If you have a job and aren't in a hot field like artificial intelligence, it's likely smart to stay put unless you're worried about getting cut — or are simply miserable, labor market observers told Business Insider. In the third installment of BI's six-part series on making major life decisions in periods of immense policy-driven change, we're looking at whether now is a good time to change jobs. We've already covered best practices for starting a business and buying a house. There are some key reasons you might want to stick it out in your current role. Among the biggies: Overall job openings are down, hiring is happening at the slowest pace in about a decade, and some employers feel jittery. That's partly because many are facing major questions about what will happen with tariffs and interest rates. The uncertainty has spilled into financial markets, whose swings have at times been like a check engine light for the US economy. It all adds up to a labor market that's "paralyzed," Cory Stahle, an economist at the Indeed Hiring Lab, told BI. "Employers are not sure if they can commit to certain hiring plans," he said. That means if you're thinking about handing in your two weeks' notice, you likely have more to consider than only a few months ago — including how robust your network is, how many job postings there are in your field, and how well your employer is doing, Susan Peppercorn, an executive coach, told BI. "It's not the strongest job market, but then again, it's not the weakest," she said. Overall, job postings in the US have dropped by 5 percentage points in 2025, Stahle said. It's not the same job market it was Postings for white-collar roles fell by 12.7% from the first quarter of 2024 to the first quarter of 2025, according to Revelio Labs, which examines employment trends. In the same period, openings for blue-collar jobs dropped by 11.9%. Taking a longer view, opportunities for some desk jobs are far less prevalent than during the job-hopping bonanza of a few years ago. From the Great Resignation era in early 2022 through the first quarter of 2025, postings for software developers and business analysts each fell by about 76%, while openings for market research work dropped by about 80%, Revelio found. Yet, it's not all bad news. Stahle said that demand for workers in areas including healthcare and construction has held up. On top of that, he said, many employers that struggled to attract workers just a few years ago aren't eager to lay them off now, especially as it's unclear how long factors like the tariff morass might persist. To know whether it's a good time to make a move, you might only need to ask someone out of work. On average, people are spending more time looking. As of April, the median time job seekers were unemployed was a seasonally adjusted 10.4 weeks, according to the Labor Department. That's up from eight weeks in June 2022. Switching might take time You might be tempted to jump because, broadly, fewer of us are dialed into what we do. In 2024, the global share of engaged employees dropped to 21% from 23%, recent figures from Gallup show. That's only the second annual drop since 2009; the other was 2020, during pandemic lockdowns. Stahle said that if you don't like your job and there aren't other options at your employer, you should be prepared for the search to take longer. If you're unhappy in your role, you might focus on growing by adding skills or looking for other spots at your employer, Jennifer Dulski, CEO and founder of Rising Team, a team-performance platform, told BI. If your job is at risk, or you think it might be, start searching, she said. How to start looking for a job Dulski said that your search should involve more than scrolling through openings. You'll need to contact people and start connecting — a term she prefers over networking. With fewer openings and employers taking longer to bring people aboard, any edge can help. "People need to work harder now to stand out," said Dulski, who's spent some 25 years in tech, including leadership positions at Yahoo, Google, and Facebook. Peppercorn offered similar advice, saying that if you're in the market, you have to be able to show what makes you "unique and compelling." How successful you're likely to be in your job search — and how quickly it plays out — will have a lot to do with your skills, she said. Those abilities have to be well-suited for what employers want, Peppercorn said. A job change might not be hard if you're a nurse or someone developing AI tools, for example. Ultimately, the jobs have to be there. Peppercorn said you should hope to see at least 10 open roles you could apply for and would have a reasonable shot at landing. It also makes more sense, she said, to put in well-crafted job applications rather than go after loads of openings in hopes of getting a bite. Peppercorn also said that if a posting has more than 50 applicants, it might be worth looking elsewhere. Perhaps above all, she said, forging ties with others will remain essential. "What it takes to get another job is strong network connections, not what you see posted online," Peppercorn said. Do you have a story to share about your job hunt? Contact this reporter at tparadis@
CNBC
08-05-2025
- Business
- CNBC
It's a ‘low firing, low hiring' job market, economist says: Here's how to land a new gig anyway
These days, job hunting may feel like something of a paradox: Even though the overall market is strong, it can be tough for jobseekers to find a new gig, according to economists. Unemployment was relatively low in April, at 4.2%, and job growth exceeded expectations. The layoff rate is historically low, meaning those with jobs are holding onto them. Yet it has gotten harder to find new work. Businesses are hiring at their slowest pace since 2014. Nearly 1 in 4 jobless workers, 23.5%, are long-term unemployed — meaning they've been out of work for more than six months — up from 19.6% a year ago. Cory Stahle, an economist at the Indeed Hiring Lab, called it a "low firing, low hiring trend" in a note on Friday. There's a "growing divide" in the labor market between those out of work and those who are employed, Stahle wrote. The changing market conditions may feel jarring for job seekers, given that a few years ago there were record-high job openings and workers were quitting at record levels amid ample opportunity. "This is just how it is right now: Companies are not hiring," said Mandi Woodruff-Santos, a career coach and personal finance expert. "If they are, it's very infrequent." Economic headwinds like trade wars and tumbling consumer confidence may make job-finding more difficult in coming months, economists said. "The market can't escape the consequences of rapidly souring business and consumer confidence forever," Stahle wrote. Even in this "low firing, low hiring" market, there are ways for jobseekers to stand out, experts said. "When the market changes, the way you search for a job may also have to be adjusted," Jennifer Herrity, a career trends expert at Indeed, wrote in an e-mail. Job seekers will likely have to lean on personal relationships more than in the recent past, experts said. Most jobs come through referrals or internal candidates, meaning people need to be "creative" and "strategic" about networking possibilities, Woodruff-Santos said. "Instead of waiting for someone to pick your resume from a pile, you have to make it undeniable: Put yourself in front of them," she said. "Creating space for human connections and creating relationships will give you a little something extra," she added. More from Personal Finance:Prices are falling on some purchases but 'not here to stay'Your Social Security card will soon be available digitallyStudent loan default has 'dramatic and immediate' credit score impact Don't just look for obvious networking events like job fairs or expos heavily attended by other job seekers, Woodruff-Santos said. She recommends seeking out conferences, seminars, special talks and book signings. For example, say you work in information technology and someone writes a book on corporate security in the world of artificial intelligence. Go to that author's book signing, lecture, seminar or Q&A, Woodruff-Santos said — since the audience would likely be people in businesses with an interest in IT security. Reconnect with former colleagues to get on a hiring manager's radar before a role opens to the general public, Herrity said. Workers dissatisfied with their current roles may be overlooking internal career opportunities, experts said. "While hiring may appear to be slowing on the surface, it usually just means that opportunities have gone further underground," Frances Weir, a principal at organizational consulting firm Korn Ferry, said in a March briefing. However, employees should be strategic: For example, they likely shouldn't apply to several different jobs at the company or seek to move on from a role they started only months ago, according to the firm. "Generic resumes won't stand out to employers in a tight market," Herrity said. "Tailor your resume and cover letter to each role, echoing keywords from the job description and aligning your skills with the employer's needs." Applicants should also highlight results — instead of responsibilities — on their resume and in interviews, she said. That shows they're a proven performer by quantifying achievements. "Employers value candidates who use slow periods to grow," Herrity said. "This is especially important for those facing long-term unemployment who may find themselves in a skills gap." She recommends finding free or low-cost courses in any relevant career areas to help fill gaps and signal initiative, motivation and self-teaching. List recent certifications or course completions in the "education" or "skills" section of a resume, she said. While waiting for your ideal job, success might mean being open to contract work, hybrid roles or adjacent industries, Herrity said. "Short-term roles can be a great opportunity to grow your network and skills, then leap when the right full-time role appears," she said.
Yahoo
25-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Job applications surging among DOGE's targets in federal government
As the Department of Government Efficiency upends federal agencies, a new report released Tuesday by the job listing website Indeed shows the number of workers looking for new jobs has spiked. Job applications from workers at agencies targeted by DOGE are up 75% compared with 2022, according to the report's data. And while job applications among all workers increased after the Trump transition, the spike in applications from DOGE-targeted workers is especially pronounced. Applications from federal workers in DOGE-targeted agencies, which include the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and the U.S. Agency for International Development, surged 60 percentage points from January to February, according to Indeed's data. 'We've never seen something like this after a presidential administration and inauguration,' said Cory Stahle, an Indeed economist. While there were increases in job applications among federal workers after the 2016 and 2020 elections, those increases were an order of magnitude lower, Stahle said. The 2025 surge coincides with the aggressive downsizing initiated early in Donald Trump's presidency, and it comes at a time when white-collar work is stagnating. 'It's not a good time to be looking for a job,' Stahle said. The affected workers are spread out across the country. While nearly 500,000 federal workers live in Washington, D.C., Maryland or Virginia, Indeed's data shows that 80% of active federal worker profiles are tied to locations elsewhere. Nearly a third of those workers are in the South, excluding D.C., Maryland and Virginia. They also tend to be more educated, potentially increasing competition in an already tough job market. 'What we see is that 70% of them have a bachelor's degree or above,' Stahle said. 'This is a really educated group of job seekers.' Stahle noted that the influx is happening amid a historically weak market for such sectors, saying: 'It's going to increase the competitiveness of the labor market.' In addition, jobs affected by cuts are often highly specialized. 'If you are a displaced USDA worker with a background in horticulture, you know, what do your prospects look like right now?' Stahle said. Job searchers, who Stahle said tended to be mid- to senior level, also were in their current jobs for longer, with an average tenure of 11 years, according to federal data. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated Monday that fired workers will get the chance to look for jobs in the private sector, but the shocks could extend beyond job-seeking. Unemployment, among other data points, is an early indicator of recessions. Thus far, it — along with other relevant data points, such as the yield curve and consumer spending — have held relatively steady. But plunging consumer sentiment could be a signal of what's to come. Economist Claudia Sahm, a former Federal Reserve and White House economist who created a widely used indicator, the 'Sahm Rule,' to identify oncoming downturns through unemployment, cautioned that cuts could damage consumer spending. That's even among those who are not directly affected. 'Many of them won't lose their job, because we do need a certain number of federal workers to make everything go,' Sahm told NBC News. 'But at this point there are a lot of people who are very uncertain from day to day what their employment is.' 'Are they going to go out and buy a house? Are they going to go buy a car?' Sahm asked, sharing a gray outlook for consumer spending: 'The very rational response would be don't go out and buy stuff.' The overall risk to the economy is small, Sahm said, because federal workers made up less than 2% of the overall U.S. labor force. But she warns that while DOGE alone might not cause a recession, it could lead to one. 'The fast-moving process of DOGE is adding unnecessarily to the risks,' Sahm said on her blog. 'Once they take hold, recessionary dynamics are difficult to avoid and costly to 'fix.'' This article was originally published on
