Latest news with #StateStreetGlobalMarkets
Yahoo
6 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Why the tech trade is still 'alive and well'
Big Tech names keep leading market gains with double-digit earnings growth and ongoing investments in data centers and energy. Noel Dixon, State Street Global Markets senior macro strategist, joins Catalysts to explain why he expects tech earnings to stay resilient and why two Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are still likely this year. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Catalysts here. Talk to me about how you are viewing the big tech names in this environment. Uh we're continuing to see big big tech as the primary leader of market gains so far. How long can that last? Well, thanks for having me. Well, I think it can last for a while. I think uh tech, you know, they have double-digit earnings growth. I think uh, you know, there was a lot of concern about uh some of the larger names pulling back on their AI spend, but we see that that has not come to fruition. Uh they're still, you know, spending on things like data centers. Uh they're going to obviously need to expand from the energy perspective. Um so I think the um the tech trade is alive and well. Talk to me then about how you're thinking about earnings growth going forward, which we have seen coming in just a bit here. And when we look at the index more broadly, we're seeing that earnings guidance is the worst in 15 years over the course of this earning cycle. Does that apply to those big tech names or can they buck that trend? I think they can buck that trend. I think uh, you know, 12 months forward earnings expectations, I think is about 12%. I think it'll be double digits the following year. Um, so I think they're impervious to to higher rates, uh tariffs, what's going on geopolitically. Um, and I think if we do get the Fed to cut rates, I think that that even helps the uh, you know, valuation story even further. So as at this stage, I think US tech is is still the place to be. And do you think that we will still potentially get those two cuts this year? I know that's what you were anticipating before we even got the soft employment data from this morning. Yeah, I think we do get the the two cuts. I think inflation has been uh I think tamer than than most people were were thinking. Um, and I think uh, you know, a lot of that has to do with uh, you know, the drop in energy prices. I think that has ancillary benefits as it relates to the cost of goods. Um, you know, keep in mind that uh PPI is 71% uh correlated with the price of gas, uh 24% correlated with um with CPI uh gas and CPI. So I think um, you know, inflation will be tame enough for the for the Fed to cut twice this year.
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Why the tech trade is still 'alive and well'
Big Tech names keep leading market gains with double-digit earnings growth and ongoing investments in data centers and energy. Noel Dixon, State Street Global Markets senior macro strategist, joins Catalysts to explain why he expects tech earnings to stay resilient and why two Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are still likely this year. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Catalysts here. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Reuters
12-05-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Investors cheer US-China tariff truce, but cautious over a final deal
LONDON/SHANGHAI, May 12 (Reuters) - A breakthrough in U.S.-China trade talks has propelled world stocks and the dollar higher, but investors fear further negotiations could prove a long slog, tempering optimism, as risks of a global economic slowdown persist. Speaking after two days of talks with Chinese officials in Geneva, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday the two sides had agreed a 90-day pause on measures and that tariffs would fall by over 100 percentage points. That leaves U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods at 30% from May 14 to August 12 and Chinese duties on U.S. imports at 10%, beating investors' best-case scenarios going into the talks. The dollar jumped by the most in almost a month against a basket of major currencies , as the yen and Swiss franc fell along with other safe-haven assets like gold and government bonds. S&P 500 stock futures leapt almost 3%, suggesting a hefty rally at the opening bell, while U.S. Treasury prices sagged, sending yields to one-month highs above 4.4% . But relief that the worst of a global trade war could be avoided was tempered by caution, given a more permanent deal needs to be struck and that higher tariffs overall are still likely to weigh on the global economy. "It's long-term positive plus 90 days of uncertainty," said Charles Wang, chairman of Shenzhen Dragon Pacific Capital Management Co. Michael Metcalfe, head of macro strategy at State Street Global Markets in London, estimated that Monday's U.S.-China trade deal implied an average effective tariff rate of around 15%. "Given where expectations were, it's a net positive," he said. "You basically reverse the reciprocal tariff announcement, and if you reverse the reciprocal tariff announcement you are back to square one." After taking office in January, U.S. President Donald Trump had imposed tariffs of 145% on imports of Chinese goods, with China in turn raising tariffs on U.S. goods to 125% and limiting exports on some vital rare earth minerals. Those measures had brought nearly $600 billion in two-way trade to a standstill, disrupting supply chains and sparking fears of an immediate cratering of the global economy. Trump's April 2 "Liberation Day" announcement of sweeping tariffs on China and others sparked a sharp exit from U.S. assets, including the dollar and Treasuries - the mainstays of the global financial system - before being paused. Heightened uncertainty caused by U.S. trade policy has hurt business and consumer confidence. The dollar index, while up over 1% on Monday, remains down some 7% so far this year. Reassuring for markets are signs that Trump may be rethinking his trade strategy, given the damage caused already, as economic indicators have turned south and central bankers warn of the risk of slowing growth and rising inflation. A deal last week with Britain, plus positive noises from Japan, Vietnam and South Korea, have helped restore some confidence, along with a cooling in geopolitical tensions. U.S. stocks are already roughly where they were prior to April 2, while beneficiaries of the "sell America" trade, such as European and Chinese stocks have given up a big chunk of those gains (.STOXX), opens new tab, (.CSI300), opens new tab. "This is only a three-month temporary reduction of tariffs. So this is the beginning of a long process," Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management in Hong Kong, said. "The two sides will spend months probably, to come up with a resolution, or reach a final trade deal, but this is a very good starting point." Rabobank's head of FX strategy Jane Foley said there was more optimism that the tariffs will not have the devastating impact many had feared, but this did not mean a return to the pre-Trump status quo. "The overall scenario is not as bad as it could have been, but we still have a fair amount of uncertainty about where these tariffs will settle, their impact on world growth and central bank policy," she said. State Street's Metcalfe said as uncertainty over trade lifts, the focus could also turn to other hot spots - such as Trump's plans for tax cuts and what that means for U.S. debt levels, especially as revenues from tariffs drop. "It (the U.S./China deal) doesn't mean the policy uncertainty has gone away, it's moved on to a new area," he said.
Bloomberg
15-04-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
US Will Avoid Recession, Growth Below Trend: State Street's Dixon
Noel Dixon, Senior Macro Strategist at State Street Global Markets, says below-trend US growth will help with cyclical inflation that the Federal Reserve has been struggling to control. He also sees the Fed cutting a couple of times in the second half of 2025. He speaks to Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz on 'Bloomberg Surveillance.' (Source: Bloomberg)
Bloomberg
07-03-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Trump Delays Mexico, Canada Tariffs & China Calls Trump 'Two-Faced'
Bloomberg Daybreak Europe is your essential morning viewing to stay ahead. Live from London, we set the agenda for your day, catching you up with overnight markets news from the US and Asia. And we'll tell you what matters for investors in Europe, giving you insight before trading begins. On today's show, US President Trump is pausing tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods covered by the North American trade agreement known as USMCA until April 2. Bloomberg understands European officials have been told that President Trump wants to link the proposed US-Ukraine minerals deal to demands for Kyiv to commit to a quick ceasefire with Russia. Meanwhile, China's top diplomat accused Trump of taking a hypocritical approach to bilateral ties and denounced tariffs, as tensions rise between the world's largest economies. Today's Guests: Marija Veitmane, Equity Research Head at State Street Global Markets (Source: Bloomberg)
