18-02-2025
Why utilizing the mullet draft strategy gives your fantasy baseball team the leg up
'Business in the front, party in the back' doesn't just describe mullets and overzealous startup offices; it's a tried-and-true approach to fantasy baseball. The idea is to build a foundation early in your draft of balanced, reliable production so you can get fun and risky later.
In past years, it was hard to quantify safety or, at least, do it efficiently. Mookie Betts feels safe. Oneil Cruz — less so. There's a statistical track record that reinforces those feelings, but they're still feelings. Categorical balance is a concept more closely tied to the numbers, but even there, it gets a little hand-wavey. Who is less balanced, Kyle Schwarber or Xavier Edwards? Who is more balanced between Betts and Kyle Tucker?
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ATC and the intrepid work of its creator, Ariel Cohen, have put numbers to these questions. ATC is a weighted average of other projection systems. It puts Steamer, ZiPS, THE BAT and others into a blender that gives more weight to projections with a history of accurately predicting specific categories.
As Cohen explains, ATC has three stats you won't see in other systems that measure categorical balance, to what extent projection systems agree or disagree about each player and whether those systems are balanced around a midpoint or skewed in one direction by an outlier.
Here, we will look at those stats to identify hitters with low volatility among systems (reliability) who contribute across categories (balance). The ATC metrics that measure those are Vol (volatility) and Dim (dimension).
Vol represents an auction dollar value equal to the variance across projections for a given player (specifically, one standard deviation from the average expected value). Part-time players can have very low Vols, but the lowest you'll see among full-timers is J.P. Crawford's 1.2. The lowest variance among players with an ADP under 300 is Seiya Suzuki (1.3). At the other end of the spectrum are prospects with Vols in the 6-8 range, but just below that are a couple of stars, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Michael Harris II, at 5.7.
Dim happens to have a similar, slightly more constrained range. The number shows how many categories account for the bulk of the player's fantasy value. On the low end are specialists Edwards and Luis Arraez at 2.2. At the top of the list is Suzuki, again! He provides roughly equal value across the board for a Dim of 4.8. Just behind him is former teammate Cody Bellinger, along with Wilyer Abreu. Alone, none of these stats show player quality, just the form their ability takes.
Here are ATC's projections for the top 15 most balanced players (in the top 150 by ADP) according to Dim:
It's an eclectic group with similar stat lines. We see many steal totals in the teens and 20s, homers in the 20s and batting averages of around .260. I was surprised to see two catchers make the list.
Now that we have a feel for maximally balanced stat lines, let's look at the top players with a Dim above 4.
The most balanced players in the top 50 (by ADP) are:
Hey, a lot of the top players are good at everything! Who knew!?
The omissions on this list from the first two rounds are either monster hitters who don't run much or speedsters with middling power (or the unique baseball creature named Elly De La Cruz): Aaron Judge, De La Cruz, Juan Soto, Corbin Carroll, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Yordan Alvarez, Jarren Duran – studs who make your team just a little bit lopsided.
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Scan the Vol column, and you'll find a few guys who offer balance and reliability. The projections are largely aligned on Gunnar Henderson essentially repeating his breakout. Tucker, Betts, Bryce Harper and Trea Turner are your steady vets, and there is surprising consensus around Julio Rodriguez, Jackson Chourio and Wyatt Langford. As mentioned above, Tatis Jr. and Harris II are your big wild cards.
In the first two rounds, you might think you want balance and consistency and then end up with De La Cruz and Harris II because they slipped so far that you couldn't pass on them. The mid-rounds are where you'll have to make more marginal calls and can make picks with a philosophy in mind. Let's look at the most balanced contributors from picks 50 to 100.
There are a bunch of single-digit steals totals here, but the batting averages and HR totals are within a pretty tight range. Adley Rutschman made it with only two steals, but he's steady across the other four categories. Otherwise, we see players who, at least, offer value on the base paths with 20-something homers, a .260ish average, and R/RBI totals around the 70s.
The volatility numbers and what you would expect from the players included are all over the place. Bryan Reynolds is as set-it-and-forget-it as they come. Luis Robert Jr., on the other hand, rolls a die every morning to determine if he's a mid-level asset or a top-10 player, consumed with ennui over being stuck on the White Sox. Lawrence Butler and Junior Caminero have volatility befitting tooled-up youngsters with a minimal track record, but the projections are more aligned on James Wood. Matt McLain's range is pretty health-dependent.
At this point, players at every position except first base have made the list multiple times. Harper made the cut, and Willson Contreras will qualify there, but if you are prioritizing a balanced build, you may wait a while before drafting a first baseman. That said, we do have two in the next grouping. Here are the most categorically-balanced players from picks 100-150:
More catchers! I don't entirely get it, but those on the list provide good balance compared to other catchers. We also finally got some first-base options with Josh Naylor and Bellinger.
The projections are somehow largely in agreement on Royce Lewis but see Xander Bogaerts as one of the most volatile players in baseball, which I also don't entirely understand. Ian Happ's and Alex Bregman's low Vols correspond with the eye test, but while I am forever waiting on an injury-free Mike Trout breakout, the projections have given up on his health.
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Let's look at some roster construction options that prioritize balance first and reliability when possible, assuming a mid-round pick.
Kyle Tucker (RF), Bryce Harper (1B), Michael Harris II (CF), Pitcher 1, James Wood (LF), Adley Rutschman (C), Pitcher 2, Bryan Reynolds (LF, CF, RF), Cody Bellinger (1B, CF, RF), Luis Garcia Jr. (2B), Pitcher 3, Alex Bregman (3B)
If you stick to this strategy, it's hard to pass on outfielders — the profile we're looking for leans toward the outfield position and shortstops. But glance at that team and imagine you have half the draft left: you're ready to take some shots, right? I don't see any real weak points here.
Tucker again (RF), Jackson Merrill (CF), Pitcher 1, Jose Altuve (2B), Lawrence Butler (RF), Jordan Westburg (2B, 3B), Riley Greene (LF, CF, RF), Pitcher 2, Tyler Stephenson (C)
We still need a first baseman and a shortstop, but that's a sexy outfield, and we're not hurting too badly in any category. We have solid power, a good dose of steals, and no projected average under .250. Also, notice that balance doesn't mean boring or drafting low-upside players. Lawrence Butler is neither of those things.
This isn't the only way to build a team, but it gives you options and lets you grab players who fall later, as well as upside plays your opponents were hoping would fall another round as they try to save their batting average. After all, when you go business up front, the real fun happens later.
(Top photo of Kyle Tucker: Denis Poroy / Getty Images)
