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Falling birthrates may not be such a bad thing, experts say
Fertility rates around the world are on a trajectory to dip low enough to be unable to sustain population levels by the end of the century, according to a study published in The Lancet.
The shift promises to divide nations into two camps: those facing dramatic population decline and those experiencing 'baby booms' in less developed regions prone to socioeconomic instability, senior researcher Stein Emil Vollset from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington in Seattle said in a statement.
The study concludes that three-quarters (76 percent) of the world's countries - 155 of 204 countries and territories worldwide - will have fertility rates below population replacement levels in the next 25 years. By century's end, researchers predict a world split between nations unable to support aging populations and others grappling with unsustainable growth.
The predictions are based on surveys, censuses, and other sources of data collected from 1950 through 2021 as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study.
A 2024 study by Gitau Mburu, James Kiarie, and Pascale Allotey, also published in The Lancet, summarizes that the consequences of a low global total fertility rate may include both pros and cons.
'Low TFR (Total Fertility Rate) could lead to benefits related to population growth, environment, food security, health, climate change, and biodiversity. But it could also have negative ramifications on population ageing, health care, pensions, social security, some labour supply, and nationalistic geopolitics,' it said.
Population tracking isn't new
'Even in ancient times, emperors, for example, were keen to understand population growth because it was important to organize production and plan defense strategies,' Professor of Sociology at the American University of Sharjah and Head of the International Studies Department Dr. Yuting Wang told Al Arabiya English. 'You must know how many subjects you have to understand the tax base. There has always been this concern that if the population is too small, then you lose that tax base,' she added.
Through the years, the world has witnessed persistently changing patterns in population growth. Concerns about population growth first emerged in the early nineteenth century, coinciding with the onset of the Industrial Revolution in Europe, which led to increased food availability.
From there, the transition took on a different shape.
'We have gone through different stages. From very high birth and mortality rates to low birth and mortality rates. At some point, because birth rates remained very high, mortality rates were dropping. That is when there was concern that the population is going to explode,' she explained.
'Now we have entered a low growth and birth rate phase, where mortality rates also remain very low. We are sort of looking at a shrinking population.'
Trends not unprecedented
The trends in population growth are not unprecedented and do not symbolize signs of impending doom, said Wang. Instead, what this means for sociologists is that it is time to shift priorities and reconsider how to embrace the economy with a smaller population.
However, accommodating a diminishing population in an ever-growing economy may be setting up the world for failure, she added.
While machine learning has been used to replace human labor in some fields, meaning not as many people are needed in the labor force, 'We're facing a different demography and so we'll have to make some changes in terms of policy,' Wang said.
Despite the changes, an altered demography will affect certain industries. For example, she explained that a decrease in the number of newborns will affect sectors of childcare and early education. Japan exemplifies this reality, with entire educational institutions closing as student populations shrink.
Population trends vary
However, populations trends vary throughout the world based on a multitude of socioeconomic factors and continue to challenge notions about the world.
'In countries in Africa, we continue to see a high birthrate. The population growth is going to be different in different locations. It's going to challenge some of these well-established understandings of the world,' she said.
There is also a distinct correlation between economic development in a nation and the birthrate, Wang said.
'It's a natural trajectory – when your economy grows, then especially young people who spend more time of their lives in educational institutions are going to postpone marriage and the time of the first birth of their child. And then that's going to lead to population decrease,' she said.
A hundred years may constitute up to five generations in the past. However, today a century may only witness the existence of four generations or less, she explained, adding that it is natural in a more mature economy for people to have less children.
Effects of technology
There are multiple factors at play, and the correlation with economic standing is not the only one that exists.
A single-approach explanation such as the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or status of the economy is not comprehensively effective.
'There's a lot of other factors that can affect the way that people understand the world, and understand their opportunities and obstacles in it,' Wang said.
Birthrates in less economically developed countries continue to remain high because people are unable to either fully understand the cost of having children or they feel like there are no other ways to change their economic outlook, she added.
'Somewhere in a small village in Ethiopia, for example, where maybe culture emphasizes the value of family and people are unable to see any government support – people will tend to have more children because they will rely on them for security in old age,' she said.
But as young people migrate to cities and gain opportunities, reproductive choices shift, Wang added.
Increase in women's autonomy
To some extent, Wang attributes falling birthrates to a general increase in women's empowerment due to a higher level of education and mass education drives being implemented in most countries.
'There's still discrimination, but most governments have been trying to at least provide more education to women,' she said following up with examples from Bangladesh.
The Bangladeshi government, in collaboration with local non-governmental organizations (NGOs) has been distributing contraceptive devices and raising awareness about effective family planning, which also helps women receive more opportunities to participate in the paid labor force.
'These are short-term educational programs that have had positive outcomes. Without improving the overall GDP, Bangladesh was able to reduce its birthrate,' she said.
She drew a direct correlation between women's empowerment and falling birthrates, saying 'when you have drastic increase in women taking leadership roles, it changes their understanding of what works best for them which could be reflected in their reproductive choices.'
Balancing hope and doom
Wang said the rapidly-evolving emergence of Artificial Intelligence has also helped shape values on reproduction among young people. A generation living in fear of being replaced by machines sees little benefit in producing offsprings.
'Every sector has been shaken up by AI, or at least there's potential threats. AI can replace a lot of work already, and it is learning at stunning speeds. I can only imagine what young people might want.'
'There's also some of these inventions that might change the situation. The artificial womb, for example, could solve that issue of population decline. Maybe they can keep the population at a certain level. It sounds like sci-fi, but it's happening. And then they can control genetic composition. So, they can produce better humans. That's why young people don't really feel there's a necessity to naturally reproduce,' she added.
Use of AI in reproductive health
At a time when falling birthrates are causing concern among most, the use Artificial Intelligence in reproductive health is beginning to receive both optimism and scrutiny.
A technical brief by the World Health Organization and the UN Special Program on Human Reproduction (HRP) examines the opportunities and risks involved in AI use pertaining to reproductive and sexual health.
'AI is already transforming technology for sexual and reproductive health. If we're aware about the potential dangers, and cautious about implementation, and recognize AI as a tool and not a solution, we have a great opportunity to make sexual and reproductive services and information more accessible to all,' said Dr. Pascale Allotey, Director of HRP and WHO's Department of Sexual and Reproductive Health.
The organization has also conducted a scoping review to examine the use of AI in infertility and fertility care, WHO shared with Al Arabiya English.
Some of these uses included predicting assisted reproductive technology (ART) outcomes by training models on selected clinical and laboratory features, embryo selection assisted by machine learning techniques, as well as assessment of assessment of fertility parameters, such as hormonal levels, reproductive organ health and sperm motility.
'One of our next steps as WHO is to conduct a more thorough analysis of the identified studies. We are also embarking on efforts to provide evidence-based recommendations and implementation considerations for effectively and responsibly using AI to advance SRH, including for infertility and fertility care,' WHO added.
Ongoing research
Focusing on the growing global need for fertility treatments, an IVF-AI project started in November 2024 led by Helsinki University in collaboration with Hewlett Packard Enterprise and CGI.
Using AI-enabled precision medicine, the model aims to predict the general success probability of fertility treatments and offer recommendations for best line of treatment for couples.
The project hopes to improve the success rate and cost-effectiveness if fertility treatments, using techniques such as clinical image analysis, developing comprehensive predictive models using patient and image data, and medical imaging recognition methods using AI.
'From the patient's perspective, it is crucial to receive realistic information about how likely the treatment is to succeed,' Helsinki University's Head of Reproductive Medicine Hanna Savolainen-Peltonen said in a statement released earlier this year.
'The aim of this project is for couples to conceive more quickly and for clinicians to save time,' she added.
Silver lining
A decline in birthrates may be a natural transition in terms of population growth patterns, Wang argued.
When there are high mortality rates, the world needs high birthrates to maintain balance. Today, with overall developments in healthcare prompting a drop in mortality rates, the world might need lower birthrates to tip the scales.
'Our economy is built on mass consumption. Production is built on mass consumption, which is certainly not sustainable as it hurts the environment. So, population decline may not be a bad thing eventually,' she said.
'In the grand scheme of things, they want a bigger population because it generates more' Wang added.
Wang said concerns about falling birthrates are often connected to fears about the economy and losing a consumer base, 'We're worried about falling birthrates because we're always thinking we won't have a consumer base and the economy is going to collapse.'
'But why do we sustain the unsustainable model of action? There's something wrong with that production model,' she added.
