Latest news with #StephanieGuichard
Axios
5 days ago
- Business
- Axios
CEO confidence plunges at fastest rate in nearly 50 years
U.S. CEO confidence recorded the largest quarterly decline in nearly 50 years of data, per a Conference Board report out Thursday. Why it matters: CEOs seem to be losing their nerve just as consumers are starting to get more optimistic, amid the constant uncertainty of President Trump's trade war. By the numbers: The Conference Board's Measure of CEO Confidence, compiled with membership group the Business Council, fell to 34 in the second quarter, versus 60 in the first quarter. The Conference Board said it was the largest quarter-over-quarter decline ever recorded, in a series that goes back to 1976. The same indicator hit a three-year high in the first quarter, while the trade war was in its early stages but before the "Liberation Day" tariffs. The group surveyed 133 CEOs from May 5 to May 19 — just before and just after the pause on the largest China tariffs. What they're saying: " All components of the Measure weakened into pessimism territory," Conference Board senior economist Stephanie Guichard said in a statement. Guichard also acknowledged the impact of the China deal — which softened, but did not remove, CEOs' concerns. "CEOs responding before and after May 12 reported similar very negative views about the current state of the economy and their own industries. However, the CEOs who responded after May 12 tended to be somewhat less pessimistic about the future and fewer expected a deep recession." Between the lines: The Conference Board used the word "collapsed" multiple times to describe the dramatic fall in sentiment. 82% of CEOs said economic conditions were worse than six months ago, versus just 11% who felt that way in the first quarter. 64% expect things to worsen further in the next six months, against 15% who felt that way previously.
Yahoo
6 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Why American Express Stock Jumped Today
American Express stock jumped on the news that consumer confidence was higher than expected in May. The Consumer Confidence Index was up for the first time in months. 10 stocks we like better than American Express › Shares of American Express (NYSE: AXP) jumped on Tuesday. The company's stock rose 3% by the time the market closed. The move up comes as the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) jumped 2% and the Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) jumped 2.5%. Shares of the credit card giant jumped after May's consumer confidence report showed consumers' attitudes were much rosier than expected. Released today, the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for May showed sentiment has reversed course. The 98 rating was up from April's 85.7 and is the first time the index ticked up in months after President Trump hit pause on a global trade war. Stephanie Guichard, senior economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board, said: Consumer confidence improved in May after five consecutive months of decline. The rebound was already visible before the May 12 U.S.-China trade deal, but gained momentum afterwards. The monthly improvement was largely driven by consumer expectations as all three components of the Expectations Index -- business conditions, employment prospects, and future income -- rose from their April lows. The news that consumer confidence was up helped boost American Express stock, as the company is heavily dependent on consumer spending habits. The company, a longtime favorite of Warren Buffett, is a solid pick among the competition. As both a bank and a payment network, its vertical integration provides it certain advantages, and unlike the companies actually producing or selling products to consumers, its margins aren't pressured by inflation. Of course, the real threat is a major slowdown of consumer spending, but if that happens, there are few companies that would be untouched. Before you buy stock in American Express, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the for investors to buy now… and American Express wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $639,271!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $804,688!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 957% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 167% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join . See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of May 19, 2025 American Express is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Johnny Rice has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Why American Express Stock Jumped Today was originally published by The Motley Fool Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
6 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Consumer pessimism eases amid cooling in U.S.-China tariff war
This story was originally published on CFO Dive. To receive daily news and insights, subscribe to our free daily CFO Dive newsletter. Consumer pessimism about the future eased in May after a five-month gain amid a cooling in the U.S.-China tariff war, the Conference Board said Monday. The Consumer Confidence Index rose by 12.3 points this month to 98, the Conference Board said. The Expectations Index — gauging consumers' short-term view about income and the outlook for business and the labor market — also surged but remained below the level that usually signals sustained economic growth rather than a coming recession. 'The rebound was already visible before the May 12 U.S.-China trade deal but gained momentum afterwards,' Stephanie Guichard, senior economist for global Indicators at the Conference Board, said in a statement, referring to a 90-day reduction in U.S. levies on China imports to 30% from 145%. Roughly half of survey results were gathered before that date. The share of consumers expecting a recession over the next 12 months fell in May, the Conference Board said, aligning with a markdown on the odds of a downturn among economists. For example, Goldman Sachs recently trimmed the probability of a recession to 35% from 45% while citing reduced tensions between the U.S. and its trade partners. Consumer confidence rose among all age and income groups, and across political affiliations, the Conference Board said, noting the biggest gains among Republicans. Expectations for average inflation during the next 12 months fell to 6.5% from 7% in April, the Conference Board said. President Donald Trump on Sunday withdrew a threat to impose 50% tariffs on goods from the EU on June 1, giving the 27-country bloc until July 9 to negotiate a trade agreement. Consumers may be too optimistic about the outlook for price pressures, according to economists concerned that import levies on goods from virtually all U.S. trade partners will spur inflation. "Consumer confidence may have soared and Americans have reason to be happy given the rollback in tariffs, especially with China,' Robert Frick, corporate economist with Navy Federal Credit Union, said in an email. 'But when prices start rising from existing tariffs in a month or two, it will be a sobering reminder that a new inflation fight has just begun," he said. Indeed, many consumers voiced concerns that tariffs will stoke inflation and slow economic growth, the Conference Board said. At the same time, 'there were also some mentions of easing inflation and lower gas prices.' Forty-four percent of respondents expect stock prices to increase during the next 12 months compared with 37.6% in April, Guichard added. 'This was one of the survey questions with the strongest improvement after the May 12 trade deal.' While consumer confidence jumped this month, a tariff-induced rise in the purchase of goods plunged after March. Factory orders sank 6.3% in April after rising nearly 8% the prior month as companies snapped up goods before import levies pushed up prices, the Commerce Department said Monday. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Business Times
6 days ago
- Business
- Business Times
US consumer confidence jumps most in four years on trade truce
[WASHINGTON] US consumer confidence rebounded sharply in May from a near five-year low as the outlook for the economy and labour market improved amid a truce on tariffs. The Conference Board's gauge of confidence increased by 12.3 points to 98, marking the biggest monthly gain in four years. The figure exceeded all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists. A gauge of consumer expectations for the next six months surged by the most since 2011, while a measure of present conditions climbed as well, data released on Tuesday (May 27) showed. The improvement in confidence was broad across age and income groups as well as political affiliations, with the strongest gains among Republicans. The cutoff for the survey was May 19, after the US and China agreed to temporarily reduce high levies on each other's goods while they negotiate a trade deal. About half the responses were collected after the agreement was reached on May 12, according to a statement. 'The rebound was already visible before the May 12 US-China trade deal but gained momentum afterwards,' Stephanie Guichard, senior economist at The Conference Board, said. The gauge's improvement may be an indication that worries about tariffs – a key source of anxiety in the previous surveys – abated in recent weeks. However, US President Donald Trump has since renewed threats to increase levies on other countries and products. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up Consumers' outlook for the stock market improved in the survey, coinciding with a 5.8 per cent gain in the S&P 500 so far this month. 'The book is far from closed on tariffs, as we saw over the past few days with the threat of 50 per cent tariffs for the EU, but financial markets seem ready to move past it, and these numbers suggest that households may be moving in that direction as well,' Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Santander US Capital Markets, said in a note. Upbeat outlook Consumers were more upbeat about the outlook for business conditions, the job market and their incomes. As a result, larger shares of consumers said they plan to buy cars, homes and major appliances as well as take vacations over the coming six months. Views of the present job market were more mixed, however. While more respondents said jobs were plentiful in May, there was also a larger share that said jobs were currently hard to get. The difference between these two – a metric closely followed by economists to gauge the job market – narrowed for a fifth month. Despite widespread apprehension among consumers and companies alike, the economy at large and the job market in particular have held up fairly well. Tariffs will probably take months to make their way through the economy, forecasters say, and consumers have so far been shielded from the brunt of the impact by retailers absorbing much of the higher costs. Still, companies have warned they plan to raise prices, chief among them Walmart. The world's largest retailer said last week that it will increase prices after working its way through inventory. The median measure of consumer inflation expectations fell by the most since mid-2022, in the Conference Board's report. Some consumers mentioned lower gas prices in write-in responses. BLOOMBERG
Yahoo
6 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
US consumer confidence rebounds in May after 5-month slide
U.S. consumer confidence rose in May after five straight months of deterioration after a pause in higher tariff rates between the U.S. and China boosted optimism, though concerns about tariffs raising prices and hurting the economy remained. The Conference Board reported on Tuesday that its consumer confidence index rose by 12.3 points to 98 in May, well above the modest rise to 87 that was projected by economists polled by Reuters. Roughly half of the consumer confidence survey's responses were collected after May 12, when the Trump administration reached a deal to lower tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30% for a 90-day period, in exchange for China reducing its tariffs from 125% to 20%. "The rebound was already visible before the May 12 U.S.-China trade deal but gained momentum afterwards," said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist, global indicators at the Conference Board. "The monthly improvement was largely driven by consumer expectations as all three components of the Expectations Index – business conditions, employment prospects, and future income – rose from their April lows." Gas Prices Hit 4-Year Low Ahead Of Memorial Day Weekend "Consumers were less pessimistic about business conditions and job availability over the next six months and regained optimism about future income prospects. Consumers' assessments of the present situation also improved," Guichard said. Read On The Fox Business App However, she added that "while consumers were more positive about current business conditions than last month, their appraisal of current job availability weakened for the fifth consecutive month." The Conference Board's report found that the rebound in consumer confidence occurred across all age groups and income groups, as well as across political affiliations – though it noted that prior months' declines meant the index's six-month moving average was still down. Us Consumer Sentiment Drops To Near Record Low In May On Inflation Worries, Tariff Uncertainty Tariffs continued to feature prominently in the Conference Board's write-in responses, which also included optimism about trade deals. "Notably, consumers continued to express concerns about tariffs increasing prices and having negative impacts on the economy, but some also expressed hopes that the announced and future trade deals could support economic activity," the report said. "While inflation and high prices remained an important concern for consumers in May, there were also some mentions of easing inflation and lower gas prices," it added. The report showed that consumers' average inflation expectations over 12-months dipped to 6.5% after spiking to 7% in April. It also asked consumers a special question about whether they've changed their spending and financial behavior recently, with more than a third (36.7%) saying they put money aside for future spending. About a quarter of consumers said they tapped into savings to pay for goods and services (26.6%) and postponed major purchases (26%). Reuters contributed to this article source: US consumer confidence rebounds in May after 5-month slide Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
