4 days ago
A sordid tale of the Blackstone IPO and a jailed NRI private bankster!
Matein Khalid
I have had a neurological soft corner for Wall Street's alternative asset manager stocks ever since I resisted the come hither importunings of multiple Morgan Stanley (MS) managing directors before the firm sold its private wealth division in the DIFC to Credit Suisse. Everyone of these MS honchos wanted me to subscribe to the Blackstone IPO in the summer of 2007 at $32. They assured me that the biggest institutional investors in the UAE had all subscribed to the IPO and I was even excluded from a dinner with Stephen Schwartzmann, Blacktone's founder and chairman, since I refused to give MS an order for a $50 million IPO bid.
By the summer of 2007, I was convinced that the world was headed into a traumatic global recession and even published an article in English which would have saved my fellow Dubai investors billions of dollars had they bothered to read it for free in the Khaleej Times as far back as January 2007. This article accurately predicted the global financial meltdown a year before it happened and is uploaded above.
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Naturally, these Morgan Stanley private bankers despite their fancy titles of MD, Imperial Wizards, King of Kings and Chief Concubine were clueless about the nuances of the global capital markets. I have learnt the hard way that the private banking and wealth business in the Middle East is really the blind leading the blind to the slaughterhouse, invariably with high octane leverage and absurdly high fees for the privileges of helping you gut your financial net-worth in the capital markets they barely understand. I sealed my unpopularity with Morgan Stanely's pinstriped bureaucrats in Dubai when I wrote successive articles, listing myriad reasons why I wanted to short both Morgan Stanley and Blackstone at 32. History or a cursory look at your smartphone will record that MS almost failed in the post Lehman Wall Street panic and the Blackstone IPO plunged from 32 to 4.
To compound the insult that Dubai's top NRI investors faced as they haemorrhaged money on the advice of the MS clowns, the top Indian broker on the MS bench (Manoj Prasad) was jailed for fraud, money laundering and trying to bribe a CBI officer in India. So much for Wall Street/Swiss due diligence/ethics when it comes time to fleece the leveraged NRI lambs in the Gulf.
My readers know I wrote successive columns in the UAE/British media recommending investors buy Blackstone (BX) shares at 10-12 when the distribution yield was 9%. I even recommended in writing to the chairman of the royal investment office where I was CIO not to allocate $25 million to Abraaj Capital for a board seat that meant squat at 3.5X book value when he could invest in Blackstone at $10 a share, way below book value. That $25 million went to money heaven when Abraaj failed in 2018 after Arif Naqvi's criminal fraud. Blackstone shares I recommended rose from $10 in 2010 to as high as $200. So that $25 million in Abraaj's eternal money heaven would be valued at $500 million if my poor chairman who had never heard of Steve Schwarzman but Magu, our Group CFO, a Karachi accountant, was dazzled by the intellectual brilliance of Arif Naqvi, the Gulf media's financier of the millennium. Moral of the story? If you think Wharton is expensive, try ignorance!
Blackstone is now the planet's biggest alt asset manager with $1.2 trillion AUM and is valued at $167 billion on the NYSE. I am a nervous long at $136 since I believe the US private credit market will be gutted in a recession that is now inevitable in Q3, the reason why I went long up the wazoo on TLT at 84 as I expect JayPo to capitulate on rate cuts at the September FOMC. I want to exit my BX long via a covered call strategy before July 4th, our Independence Day.
I am pretty sure I will be able to buy BX below 100 when the macro wolf finally swallows Grandma Goldilocks. We saw this movie before in the autumn of 2008
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Also published on Medium.
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