Latest news with #Stuff+
New York Times
12-02-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Eno Sarris' 2025 starting pitcher fantasy rankings with Stuff+ powered projections
For years, it's been harder to project pitchers than hitters — for a whole host of reasons. They get injured more and stay injured longer, yes, but they also see their performance change dramatically and quickly in ways that hitters don't. Think of a pitcher debuting a new pitch: He's probably a whole new pitcher now, not just the same guy who will return to his previous norms. There really isn't a corollary for hitters. Advertisement But analysts have been hard at work narrowing the gaps. New tools that incorporate physical data from pitches as well as the pitchers' bodies, paired with better statistical techniques, have improved our pitcher projections. The rankings here attempt to synthesize contemporary research the best way we can. That work includes metrics that will be published here, as well as some behind-the-scenes help: • Pitching+ and the associated Stuff+ and Location+ models • Jordan Rosenblum's stuff-powered projections (ppERA% and ppK%) • Jeff Zimmerman's health grades, which he publishes in The Process • Baseball Prospectus' new arsenal grades • Hand-projected innings totals based on health grades, team tendencies, and depth charts The very best pitchers have elite Stuff+. They locate the ball well as evidenced by their historical walk and Location+ rates. They project well once their park, age, and relevant production are correctly weighted. They have good health grades based on their fastball velocity, age, and number and timing of arm injuries. And they have wide arsenals that can surprise the hitter with a mix of different pitches, shapes and velocities. They've built up the bulk needed to go deep into the season and are on a team likely to go with a standard five-man rotation. Well, wait, that's just Paul Skenes. For everyone else, we have to figure out how to weigh their different strengths and flaws. That introduces some human bias, but also some opportunity, because every projection system makes its own choices about what goes into the meat grinder, and so there's a little subjectivity in every effort anyway. A human might just find the pitchers who fall between the cracks in every system. As an example, Stuff+ has fared remarkably well in predicting the future based on a single model that uses only physical characteristics of pitches as inputs, but as the marketplace has produced more versions of the statistic, it was time for a refresh. The newest numbers, found here and also at FanGraphs in sortable leaderboards, split the single model into multiple ones (swing, take, foul, ball in play, etc), and added features like arm slot (which recently became available at Baseball Savant). In the future, we may find a way to fold in the type of arsenal work being done at Baseball Prospectus and Driveline into the stuff models to have a better idea of how starter's pitch mixes work, how they change performance and how they can be optimized. Advertisement In the meantime, a human can try to look at these different models and weigh them the best they can. This is a fantasy ranking, so a tough home park might hide the fact that some of these pitchers would be ranked higher in different parks. My bias is toward 15-team leagues with no injured list — you may find that if your league has unlimited IL spots, you'd want to push up the pitchers with great per-inning numbers and lower innings projections. They shouldn't be hard to find; they ended up clustered together. In a shallower league, you may also want to skip over some of the more boring veterans in the back half of the top 100 in favor of riskier, younger pitchers with less of a track record (say, pick a Kumar Rocker or Jackson Jobe over a Mitch Keller or Max Scherzer). If they don't work out, your wire is more likely to have a decent replacement waiting for you. As with years past, this google doc will house some goodies during the season like minor league Stuff+ numbers as well as deeper looks at the player pool. Last year, these ranks produced cheap gems like Seth Lugo, Nestor Cortes, Cristopher Sánchez, Michael King, Bryan Woo, Shota Imanaga, Luis Gil and Jared Jones — along with some mistakes we can learn from. Best of luck as you search for the right pitching staff in your leagues this year. (Illustration: Demetrius Robinson / The Athletic; Photos: Chris Szagola / Associated Press; Joe Robbins / Icon Sportswire; Duane Burleson / Associated Press)
New York Times
10-02-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
MLB's 2025 offseason in summary, plus what is Stuff+?
The Windup Newsletter ⚾ | This is The Athletic's MLB newsletter. Sign up here to receive The Windup directly in your inbox. Congrats to the Eagles, and now let's get those pitchers and catchers reported! Today: a quick catch-up on the offseason, an explainer on Stuff+, a look at the Padres' latest attempt at alchemy and Ken telling us just how free-wheelin' the Dodgers have been. I'm Levi Weaver, here with Ken Rosenthal. Welcome to The Windup! Regular readers of The Windup, if you don't mind, could I get you to stand over there for juuust a second? Now that the Super Bowl is over, there are probably a few new subscribers (or maybe readers opening their first Windup in a while) today. Let's use one section to catch them up on the offseason. *deep breath* OK, so … If you want more detail than this surface-level overview, here's Grant Brisbee to get you up to speed. From my latest notes column: For as much as the Dodgers keep pushing to improve, with the pending return of Kiké Hernández merely the latest example, some of their moves border on overkill. Infielder Hyeseong Kim, who signed a three-year, $12.5 million free-agent deal, might not be an improvement over second baseman Gavin Lux, who is signed for $3.325 million and is under control through 2026. But in trading Lux to the Cincinnati Reds, the Dodgers acquired outfielder Mike Sirota, the Reds' third-round pick in 2024 and a Competitive Balance Round A pick. Advertisement The Dodgers get an extra year of control with Kim. They obviously liked Sirota, having previously chosen him out of high school in the 16th round of the 2021 draft. And the competitive-balance selection is perhaps more valuable to them than it is to other clubs. For the third time in four years, the Dodgers' top pick is moving back 10 places because they were more than $40 million over the luxury-tax threshold. Their top choice this season will be No. 40 overall. The pick they acquired from the Reds is No. 41. The last time the Dodgers selected higher than No. 20 was 2013. The Lux deal at least produced an intriguing return. The signing of Kirby Yates and subsequent trade of Ryan Brasier to the Chicago Cubs for a player to be named or cash was an outright financial flex. The one-year, $13 million deal for Yates effectively will cost the Dodgers $27.3 million when factoring in the 110 percent penalty for going over the highest luxury-tax threshold. Brasier already was under contract for $4.5 million, and the Dodgers covered an unspecified part of his salary in the deal. Yates, 37, is five months older than Brasier, but his career strikeout rate is 33.5 percent compared to Brasier's 24 percent. He also had a 1.17 ERA in 61 2/3 innings last season, while Brasier was out from April 29 to Aug. 17 with a right calf strain, and not as effective as he was in 2023. Still, Brasier performed well when healthy, and the Dodgers thought enough of him to use as an opener while facing elimination in Game 4 of the Division Series, and again in Game 2 against the Mets, when he allowed a leadoff homer to Francisco Lindor. Here's the kicker: The Steamer projection system has Yates again finishing with a higher strikeout rate than Brasier, but their ERAs, expected Fielding Independent Pitching metrics and Wins Above Replacement are almost the same. More here. Last year, the Padres caught lightning in a bottle, signing Jurickson Profar to a one-year, $1 million deal. Profar set career highs in home runs (24), OPS (.839) and bWAR (3.6), and made his first All-Star Game en route to winning a Silver Slugger award. Profar has moved on to Atlanta (three years, $42 million), leaving the Padres to wash out the bottle and reset the bait. This week, two players flew right into it: Jason Heyward and Connor Joe. Advertisement Heyward — who is somehow still just 35 — accrued 29.8 bWAR from 2010-2015, but in the nine years since, has been worth just 12 bWAR with the Cubs, Dodgers and Astros (though he did win two Gold Gloves). He'll share time in left field with Joe, who has spent the last two years with the Pirates. Here's how they look as a tandem … Career vs. RHP Heyward: .265/.350/.434 (.784 OPS) Joe: .235/.329/.377 (.705) Career vs. LHP Heyward: .230/.300/.342 (.642) Joe: .254/.350/.415 (.766) Not overwhelming, but just for kicks, here were Profar's career splits before and after Opening Day of last season (Profar is a switch-hitter). Career pre-2024: vs. RHP: .235/.321/.388 (.708) vs. LHP: .248/.326/.372 (.698) 2024: vs. RHP: .273/.378/.444 (.823) Vs. LHP: .300/.385/.500 (.885) That's what lightning in a bottle looks like. But bottles are a notoriously inconsistent way of capturing lightning. The Padres hope there's a little electricity left in Heyward and Joe. Our last edition got a little full, so I wanted to take a section today to revisit last week's Eno Sarris explainer. By now, you've probably heard the term 'Stuff+' (it was mentioned in today's intro, at very least). But what is it, anyway? Eno dug into it here and laid out the case for why teams use it — and some of the pitfalls that have accompanied it. Here are a few takeaways: First, Keith Law's Top 20 lists are now complete. Here are the last two divisions: Next, remember this time last year when we on the internet were all roasting the new uniforms? On rare occasions, being mean online does work, after all. Ken makes the argument against a salary cap in baseball, and Evan Drellich reports on commissioner Rob Manfred saying the Dodgers' spending isn't actually bad for baseball, and Jayson Stark says the parity level in baseball measures up favorably against other sports. Brian Cashman says Gleyber Torres was 'unwilling' to switch positions while playing for the Yankees. Most-clicked in our last newsletter: We have a tie! Cody Stavenhagen's story on Paul Nyman — the mystery godfather of modern pitching — and Jim Bowden's top 30 Rookie of the Year candidates for 2025. 📫 Love The Windup? Check out The Athletic's other newsletters.
