24-05-2025
Felons a no-show in LIMA '25 casts doubt over RMAF's MRCA ambitions
The biggest no-shows at this year's Langkawi International Maritime and Aerospace exhibition were also meant to be its biggest stars – the two Sukhoi Su-57 'Felons' that never made it to the tarmac at Padang Matsirat.
Their absence has thrown cold water on months of breathless speculation that the Royal Malaysian Air Force (RMAF) was on the verge of announcing its next-generation multirole combat aircraft (MRCA) purchase.
Whispers on the sidelines of LIMA '25 suggest the jets were grounded in Hainan, China, after being refused passage – reportedly by a third party. Some sources claim the presence of the USS Nimitz (CVN-68) in the South China Sea may have prompted a quiet but firm diplomatic block. If true, it's a telling sign of just how geopolitically fraught this region has become.
The MRCA programme has been in a state of suspended animation for years, dogged by budget constraints, shifting priorities, and the kind of bureaucratic inertia that has left the RMAF with a shrinking pool of airworthy fighters. The Su-57's intended appearance was widely interpreted as a bold signal – perhaps even a soft launch – that a deal was imminent.
But with the Felons failing to turn up, that narrative has started to unravel.
For defence watchers, the setback is more than symbolic. Russia's fifth-generation fighter, while wrapped in mystery and shrouded in marketing gloss, was never going to be an easy sell. Its production numbers remain low, its combat record sketchy, and Russia's ability to support such aircraft abroad – especially amid the Ukraine war and Western sanctions – is in question.
Even before this hiccup, the Su-57 raised eyebrows among military planners. While it boasts thrust-vectoring engines, high off-boresight missile capabilities, and super-manoeuvrability, none of these features matter much if the aircraft can't be delivered – or worse, can't be sustained.
Malaysia's MRCA needs are urgent. The RMAF is grappling with a capability gap that is becoming critical. It has just eight F/A-18D Hornets, 17 Sukhoi Su-30MKMs (of which fewer than 10 are regularly serviceable), and a fleet of ageing Hawk 108/208s. Attrition in a shooting war would be brutal, with too few jets and too many maintenance problems.
The Hornets are nearing the end of their lifespan. The plan to acquire 20 to 30 ex-Kuwaiti Hornets – initially seen as a quick fix – now appears to have stalled, despite early momentum and official visits to Kuwait last year.
The Su-30MKMs, the pride of the RMAF, are now showing their age. A proposal to upgrade them to 'Super Flanker' status with help from India's HAL was promising – until Sukhoi reportedly threatened to void the warranty. India's military entanglements with Pakistan haven't helped matters either.
Meanwhile, the regional arms race continues apace. China's Chengdu J-20 and Shenyang J-35 are now both operational. Australia has received all 72 of its F-35s, while Singapore's RSAF is expecting 20 by 2030. These platforms bring cutting-edge capabilities in sensor fusion, battlefield networking, and stealth – areas where Malaysia's current fleet lags.
Against this backdrop, two new contenders have emerged in the MRCA race: South Korea's KF-21 Boramae and Turkey's TAI Kaan. Both are still in development, but offer promising – and politically less sensitive – alternatives.
The Boramae appears to have the inside track. South Korea's defence ties with Malaysia have deepened since the 2023 FA-50 deal, and the KF-21 is further along in testing. It aligns neatly with RMAF's possible heavy-light (hi-lo) fighter mix strategy.
The Kaan, while ambitious, is still unproven. Having made its maiden flight in early 2024, it remains a wildcard with little track record.
But regardless of the airframe, the MRCA programme faces political and financial headwinds. With no significant hike expected in Budget 2025, any procurement must be staggered and economically palatable. A full-fleet replacement is unlikely in the near term.
Sources close to the project say the programme has been quietly shifted out of the 13th Malaysia Plan and may instead be parked under a 'Private Funding Initiative' (PFI). This would allow some degree of flexibility in financing and procurement.
That said, the no-show of the Su-57s at LIMA '25 has taken the wind out of the sails. What was supposed to be a high-profile debut now feels like a diplomatic fumble – or another, all-too-familiar cautionary tale. And a major damper on the visitors to LIMA '25.
Malaysia's MRCA saga is still far from over. But if this week's drama is anything to go by, the path to a fifth-generation future remains as clouded and contested as the skies over the South China Sea.
