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USA Today
3 days ago
- Sport
- USA Today
UFC 316: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O'Malley odds, picks and predictions
UFC 316: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O'Malley odds, picks and predictions In a 5-round bantamweight championship bout in the main event, Merab Dvalishvili and Sean O'Malley meet Saturday at UFC 316 at Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. The main event is expected to start approximately at 12:30 a.m. ET. Early prelims start at 6 p.m. ET (ESPN+ / Disney+), followed by the prelims at 8 p.m. ET (ESPN / ESPN+ / Disney+) and the main card at 10 p.m. ET (Pay-Per-View). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's UFC odds around the UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley odds, and make our expert UFC picks and predictions. Records: Dvalishvili (19-4-0) | O'Malley (18-2-0) Dvalishvili lifted the bantamweight strap off of O'Malley at UFC 306 in a unanimous-decision victory Sept. 14, 2024. He successfully defended the championship at UFC 311 in January against Umar Nurmagomedov, also by way of unanimous decision. In fact, the Georgian fighter has 5 consecutive victories by way of unanimous-decision. Starting with a unanimous-decision victory over Terrion Ware in September 2018, Dvalishvili has won 11 times by way of UD, with just 1 fight inside the distance by way of KO/TKO in round 2 against Marlon Moraes in September 2021. In fact, in his MMA career, Dvalishvili has 23 fights under his belt, with a 3-0 record via KO/TKO, and 1-1 by way of submission. That means he is 15-3 in 18 fights going the distance. O'Malley hasn't fought since his loss to Dvalishvili at UFC 306 as he suffered a torn labrum in his hip which required corrective surgery. Now that he is healthy, "Suga Show" is back on as he runs it back against Dvalishvili. Prior to the Dvalishvili loss, he took the belt off of Aljamain Sterling at UFC 292 by way of KO/TKO in August 2023. Seven months later, he successfully defended the belt against Marlon Vera at UFC 299, winning by unanimous decision March 9, 2024. O'Malley has gone the distance in 3 of his past 4 fights. O'Malley is 4 years younger than his counterpart, and he has a 5-inch height advantage and 4-inch reach advantage. The switch-stance fighter holds a 6.70-to-4.36 significant-strikes-landed-per-minute advantage. Suga also holds a 61.86% significant-strikes-accuracy percentage to 58.94% for the current champ. Dvalishvili has a 5.89 takedown average, while O'Malley checks in at just 0.29 in the category. The submission average difference is rather negligible, however, as O'Malley holds a slight 0.29-to-0.26 advantage. UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley odds Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:43 a.m. ET. Fight result (2-way line) : Dvalishvili -285 (bet $285 to win $100) | O'Malley +225 (bet $100 to win $225) : Dvalishvili -285 (bet $285 to win $100) | O'Malley +225 (bet $100 to win $225) Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -250 | No +175) UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley picks and predictions O'MALLEY (+225) is a strong play for the opportunity to multiply up 2.25 times your initial bet. The former champ is healthy and a tremendous value at this price. The key to this fight will be if O'Malley can keep the fight upright, and avoid Dvalishvili from wowing the judges with his takedown ability. Both of these fighters have been routinely going the distance lately. If O'Malley was to get a finish, it would be via KO/TKO. If Dvalishvili was to get a finish, it would be by way of submission. He is No. 1 in control time (1:16:27) among the bantamweights. However, O'Malley leads the division in significant-strikes accuracy, and he has a 3.31 striking differential, which also leads the division. Whomever wows the judges most will get the victory. It's really a coin-flip fight despite whatever the sportsbooks say, so back the better value. Play our free daily Pick'em Challenge and win! Play now! Yes (-250): Fight to go the distance is just a little too on the expensive side, costing 2½ times to win 1 unit. If you were to toss it into a multi-leg parlay, it would be OK, but the parlay likely needs to be at least 3 or 4 legs to make sense. O'MALLEY ON POINTS (+600) is worth a roll of the dice for the chance to multiply up by 6 times. He has won twice via decision in his past 4 fights, including the KO/TKO of Sterling at UFC 292. In the loss to Dvalishvili by way of decision, O'Malley suffered an injury. He is a good bet to bounce back, and for the chance to multiply up 6 times, it's hard to pass on this huge value. Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis. For more sports betting picks and tips, check out and BetFTW. Follow Daniel Dobish on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.
Yahoo
5 days ago
- Entertainment
- Yahoo
UFC 316 preview roundtable: If Sean O'Malley loses again to Merab Dvalishvili, is this the end?
It's a bantamweight showcase as the UFC heads back to New Jersey this weekend, with titles on the line in both the men's and women's 135-pound divisions. On the men's side it's a rematch, as 'Suga' Sean O'Malley tries to win back the title he lost at UFC 306 in September against Merab Dvalishvili. On the women's side, it's the ushering in of a new era, as Kayla Harrison — the Olympic judoka who has made it her mission to win a UFC title — arrives as a massive favorite to overthrow Julianna Peña. Or is it the dawn of a new era? Advertisement Let's jump right in with five burning questions heading into UFC 316. 1. Sean O'Malley gave up his favorite pastimes — marijuana, social media, masturbation — to better focus for this rematch. He's all in! Is this the end of the 'Suga Show' if he loses? Petesy Carroll: It would be the end of me full-stop, man. I'm kind of perplexed by it all. Certainly, two of these three things were foundational elements of the 'Suga' brand and then to add to that there's the abstaining from social media … I'm kidding. Well, kind of, is O'Malley getting into golf now or what's he doing to fill the void? Is he crocheting? Did he get a New York Times subscription and start playing Sudoku? Feels like he's treating this like a do-or-die fight. That said if he loses, I expect him to move up to featherweight and return to his old puffing, typing and … well you get the point, he'd start doing all of those things again, right? Chuck Mindenhall: Doesn't it feel 'Suga' Sean is forever, like, 26 years old? It's odd that he's now 30, which is right around that age when we like to say a fighter is 'peaking.' If he can clear the Merab hurdle, I think he'd skyrocket back into that star area he was in before being humbled at the Sphere, with all those vices he's sacrificing for this fight once again at the core of his being. Advertisement I also think he moves up to featherweight if he loses, as being behind the Merab eight-ball is a nihilistic situation. With guys like O'Malley, there are still plenty of options ahead, all of which I am sure he'd just assume avoid. What becomes of "Suga" Sean O'Malley should he lose again to Merab Dvalishvili? (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC) (Chris Unger via Getty Images) 2. Are you disturbed by the lack of heat for this rematch? Merab and O'Malley have been so respectful in the lead-up, haven't they? Chuck: The last time through was different, as O'Malley was holding the title and treating Merab like a nuisance to be dealt with … and we all knew he was much more than a nuisance. All the shots they were taking at each other felt more playful than anything else, strictly for entertainment purposes. I didn't sense a lot of genuine heat, outside of Tim Welch's contributions to the mix. Advertisement This time through it has been very quiet. Not just with the principals in play, but in general. I haven't heard anybody outside of the MMA spectrum mention that O'Malley is fighting this weekend, which is startling, no? Petesy: Let's be honest, 'Lack of Heat' could be title of a Netflix documentary about UFC's start to 2025. I don't know if it's anything to do with the switch up in dynamic between the lads as much as it's just fan fatigue at this point. Being a UFC fan in 2025 is like being in a semi-serious relationship. You're expected to give up a day of your life every week regardless of the stakes, intrigue or ability on display on these cards. When a genuinely good one comes along like this, I think it's just difficult for everyone to switch into the 'excitement' gear. I do think it's a really good card, but I can't remember the last time we were all frothing at the mouth for a UFC pay-per-view. It certainly hasn't been over the five months, and that's pretty sad. All in all, I guess it's that situation that I find more disturbing than anything else but replies on X would have me believe I'm a jaded old fool and I need to lose some weight, but that's beside the point. 3. What is Julianna Peña's path to victory over the massive favorite, Kayla Harrison? Petesy: I won't let Julianna Peña's disrespect of my nationality or her claims that I want to be pegged by Kayla Harrison color my opinion on this one, Chuck. But, let it be known that a lesser man would. Why would she makes such claims, you ask? Well, it's because I'm the only one on the entire hosting staff of "The Ariel Helwani Show" that picked — *checks notes* — the biggest betting favorite a challenger has ever been in the history of UFC, in this case Harrison, to have her hand raised on Saturday night. Advertisement Be that as it may, I think Peña can absolutely get the job done. We've witnessed her shock the world before against Amanda Nunes and if she can keep this fight standing and keep her lead hand in Harrison's face, the Olympic gold medalist might be left with a lot to do by the time the championship rounds kick in. Let the record show that I don't think that will happen, though. Chuck: Julianna really said all that? About the pegging? Damn, I must've missed that segment. One of the reasons she has been a two-time champion in this sport is because she takes little sleights like that and packs it into her resolve. Nobody carries a chip like the "Venezuelan Vixen," Petesy, and I admire that you stuck to your guns on this. My thing with Harrison is the same as always. How much will that weight cut take out of her in the end? She has now been living on a restrictive diet for well over a year and getting down to 135 pounds is a recurring hell. One of these times it will come back to bite her, and we'll hear about it afterward. Will that be this time? Advertisement I think Harrison will win this fight, because I think she'll get it to the ground and do work there. Yet, I will say Peña is a live dog. We saw Ketlen Vieira survive to see the scorecards with Harrison, which made her seem … less inevitable. If she can't get the fight where she wants it? Things might get interesting in a hurry. Patchy Mix (20-1, 2 KOs), former Bellator bantamweight championship, makes his UFC debut at UFC 316. (Photo by Matt Davies/PxImages/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) (Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) 4. Of all the Bellator fighters who've come over to UFC, where do you rank Patchy Mix ahead of his fight with Mario Bautista? Chuck: We've seen some good ones come through from Bellator over the years, including Eddie Alvarez, Michael Chandler and Alexander Volkov back in the day, along with Patricio Pitbull, Aaron Pico and Michael 'Venom' Page more recently. I would place Patchy Mix right up there among the best of the bunch for one reason: He's very much still in his prime. Advertisement He is 31 years old and just hitting on all cylinders, having won seven fights in a row. He hasn't taken nearly as much damage as Alvarez and Chandler (who inflicted plenty of it on each other), and he's far more proven as a former champion than, say, Pico. There's a good possibility that if Mix beats Bautista that he's catapulted into the top space to be challenging for a title, and I think he'll get his shot at some point in the near future. Petesy: I think he might be the best. There have been greats in the past, as Alvarez famously went on to claim the lightweight title after making the transition. Eddie was a year younger than Patchy when he made the move but I also think that he joined a lightweight division that wasn't as healthy as the current situation we see in the UFC's bantamweight class. That might be unfair to Eddie, as he had to get through Gilbert Melendez and Anthony Pettis before dethroning Rafael Dos Anjos, but I really feel this is one of the strongest bantamweight rosters of all time. If Patchy ain't the best, I'd have him second to Eddie, but I'm expecting big things from him. 5. What's one other fight on UFC 316 that is guaranteed to deliver? Petesy: Luque vs. Holland has chaos written all over it. And speaking of chaos, or a variation of the spelling, Khaos Williams and Andreas Gustafsson could be a banger, too. While we're on the topic of things that are guaranteed to deliver, the most exciting part of the whole damn night for me will be jumping on YouTube for a live show with you and the big homie Helwani for our 3PAC post-fight special! Yes, that was a blatant plug, and I can only apologize. See you there, Mith! Advertisement Chuck: Blatant plug, and I love it — no need to apologize. Glad to have the gang back together. I will see if I can get in a word edgewise with you two yappers, but one thing I know for certain we'll be discussing? The return of the great Kelvin Gastelum. I kid, of course. (How is Gastelum still appearing on these cards? His nickname should be the 'Cockroach,' because you just can't kill him.) There's a reason they put that Luque-Holland fight at the top of the PPV, and it's not because they are brilliant technicians, Petesy. With no real care about title shots or any of the worldly structures the UFC has put up, their whole mission is to tear it all down. It's a fight with next to no perceptible stakes, which is some serious Chris Leben territory. Action is the only goal. To live-for-the-now and to put on a show. I think this one delivers.
New York Post
5 days ago
- Entertainment
- New York Post
The remade Sean O'Malley is ready to show off his ‘prime' — and get some UFC redemption
The 'Suga Show' returns Saturday night, but it's more of a remake than a continuation. Gone is the old Sean O'Malley — the weed-smoking social-media maven — with the metaphorical starring role recast as one undistracted by his own public persona and focused more keenly on the two things most important to him now: family and reclaiming UFC glory. Well, there's one thing that actually supersedes becoming the bantamweight champion in Saturday's UFC 316 main event at Prudential Center, and that's settling the score with the man who beat him for that title in September: Merab Dvalishvili. 'Even if Merab would have lost to Umar [Nurmagomedov, in January], part of me just wanted the Merab fight back,' O'Malley told reporters during media day Wednesday in Morristown, N.J.
