01-05-2025
Weather balloon gaps could impact forecast accuracy
NASHVILLE, Tenn. (WKRN) — National Weather Service sites across the country typically launch two weather balloons each day: one in the morning and one in the evening. However, some offices have been short-staffed and have limited or halted weather balloon launches, which could impact the accuracy of the forecast models.
Mike Hopkins, the Director of the Surface and Upper Air Division of the National Weather Service, said data collected by the weather balloon is crucial for the computer models meteorologists use to help make forecasts.
'It's important for initializing the weather models, so that they have a good starting place to then calculate out what's going to happen in the future,' Hopkins told News 2.
📧 Have breaking news come to you: →
Hopkins said the balloons collect temperature, pressure, wind, and moisture data throughout the troposphere. The troposphere is the lowest level of the atmosphere where all our weather occurs.
Hopkins said gaps in the weather balloon launches might impact the models somewhat, but there are more ways to get data in the atmosphere, like from airplanes.
'Having gaps in one part of the country can be a problem, but again, we have multiple ways to get that data, so you can fill in and mitigate the loss of that. What you would probably see is maybe some impacts, sort of downstream of where you are missing that data,' said Hopkins.
The Associated Press reported in March that a total of 11 National Weather Service sites had reduced or eliminated their daily weather balloon launches.
These gaps in the data could be the cause of some of the inaccuracies seen in the forecast model data.
On the morning of Sunday, April 27, the radar was showing a much larger area of rain than what the forecast models were showing. Below are snapshots from the radar and the model data from 5 a.m. Sunday, April 27.
Comparing the images above shows that the model data was missing the showers and storms near Memphis and the showers in southeast Missouri.
The missing weather balloon data cannot be completely blamed for the model's poor performance, but according to Mike Hopkins, the more data, the better for the forecast models.
Don't forget to take the power and reliability of the WKRN Weather Authority with you at all times by downloading the News 2 Storm Tracker app.
Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
