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Newsweek
a day ago
- Politics
- Newsweek
Mikie Sherrill's Chances of Beating Jack Ciattarelli in New Jersey: Polls
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Democratic New Jersey gubernatorial candidate Mikie Sherrill is set to beat her Republican rival Jack Ciattarelli in the upcoming election for governor, according to a poll. According to a SurveyUSA poll, released the day after Ciattarelli and Sherrill secured their respective nominations on Wednesday, the Democrat led his GOP rival by 13 percentage points. The Context Along with Virginia, New Jersey is one of the two states holding gubernatorial elections this year to replace New Jersey's incumbent Democratic governor, Phil Murphy, who has a term-limit. The Republicans have not won a gubernatorial election in New Jersey since 2013 and has voted for a Democrat in every presidential election since 1988. But the GOP has seen increasing success in the state in recent years, with Trump increasing his vote share by 10 points in 2024. This was the best showing by a GOP presidential nominee in two decades. Split image of Democratic Representative Mikie Sherrill, left, and former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli, right, who will face Sherrill in New Jersey's gubernatorial contest. Split image of Democratic Representative Mikie Sherrill, left, and former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli, right, who will face Sherrill in New Jersey's gubernatorial contest. AP Photo/Mariam Zuhaib, Mike Catalini, file What To Know Ciattarelli is a former New Jersey state representative who has said he would end any sanctuary policies protecting immigrants without permanent legal status. Sherrill is a United States representative who worked in the navy and as a federal prosecutor. According to the SurveyUSA poll of 785 adults, 51 percent of likely voters said they'd support Sherrill in the November general election, compared to 38 percent who said they'd back Ciattarelli. The poll was conducted between May 28 and May 30. However, a previous survey by the same pollster found that 40 percent of Garden State voters have a favorable view of Ciattarelli, while 41 percent had the same view of Sherrill. There was a larger gap between the two candidates when it comes to their negative ratings, with 29 percent of voters having an unfavorable view of Sherrill, compared to 36 percent who have an unfavorable opinion of the Republican. What People Are Saying Micah Rasmussen, director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider University, previously told Newsweek that while Democrats are the majority party in the state. "It is certainly possible that New Jersey could elect a Republican governor in November. [Incumbent] Governor [Phil] Murphy was the first Democrat to be reelected in more than 40 years, and in that same span, three Republican governors were elected and reelected. President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social: "The Great State of New Jersey has a very important Primary coming up on Tuesday. Get Out and Vote for Jack Ciattarelli, who has my Complete and Total Endorsement! His Opponents are going around saying they have my Endorsement, which is not true, I don't even know who they are! We can't play games when it comes to Elections, and New Jersey is a very important State that we must WIN. The whole World is watching. Vote for Jack Ciattarelli to, MAKE NEW JERSEY GREAT AGAIN!" What Happens Next The election takes place on November 4. Five third-party or independent candidates are also running for the seat.
Newsweek
2 days ago
- Politics
- Newsweek
Ciattarelli and Sherrill Face Off in NJ Governor's Race: What Polls Say
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. New Jersey voters hit the polls on Tuesday and cast their ballots in the state's primary races ahead of this year's gubernatorial election. Jack Ciattarelli, a former New Jersey state representative and one-time critic turned supporter of President Donald Trump, won the Republican Party's nomination for governor. On the Democratic side, U.S. Representative Mikie Sherrill snagged the party's nomination. With primaries in the rearview mirror, New Jersey's gubernatorial race kicks into high gear, with Sherrill pulling out all the stops to keep the governor's seat in Democrats' hands and Ciattarelli leveraging Trump's backing to flip it red. Newsweek reached out to Ciattarelli and Sherrill's campaigns for comment via LinkedIn and email, respectively, on Tuesday. Why It Matters New Jersey is among only two states holding gubernatorial elections this year, alongside Virginia, meaning November's election in the Garden State will be one of the first and earliest tests of Trump's agenda. With New Jersey's incumbent Democratic governor, Phil Murphy, being term-limited, both parties see the contest as a crucial bellwether, especially after a competitive 2021 governor's election in which Ciattarelli lost to Murphy by a narrow margin. Supporters await New Jersey Republican gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli at his watch party on November 2, 2021, in Bridgewater, New Jersey. (Photo by) Supporters await New Jersey Republican gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli at his watch party on November 2, 2021, in Bridgewater, New Jersey. (Photo by) What To Know According to the Associated Press, Ciattarelli clinched the GOP nomination for governor at 8:17 p.m. ET Tuesday and Sherrill was projected to win the Democratic nomination at 8:39 p.m. New Jersey has voted for a Democrat in every presidential election since 1988. Although Trump lost the state in November, he significantly narrowed the gap between the two parties, losing to then-Vice President and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris by less than 6 percentage points. As Newsweek reported this month, it was the best showing by a GOP presidential nominee in two decades. By comparison, Joe Biden won New Jersey by 16 percentage points in the 2020 election. Ciattarelli, who won Trump's endorsement in May, also got some good news in a recent poll published shortly before Tuesday's primaries. According to SurveyUSA, Ciattarelli and Sherrill are viewed favorably by a near-equal percentage of New Jersey voters. The SurveyUSA poll found that 40 percent of Garden State voters have a favorable view of Ciattarelli, while 41 percent view Sherrill favorably. But there's a larger gap between the two candidates when it comes to their unfavorables, with 29 percent of voters having an unfavorable view of Sherrill, compared to 36 percent who have an unfavorable opinion of Ciattarelli. What People Are Saying The Democratic National Committee, in an emailed statement to Newsweek from Chair Ken Martin: "Congratulations to New Jersey Democratic gubernatorial nominee Rep. Mikie Sherrill and to New Jersey Democrats up and down the ballot who are stepping up to fight for families across the Garden State. "The DNC is all hands on deck to ensure the Governor's office and Assembly remain blue in November. We will do everything in our power to unite the party and defeat Republican extremists like Jack Ciattarelli who want to rubber stamp Donald Trump's cost-hiking agenda and sell out working-class Americans. In 2025, Democrats have overwhelmingly won and overperformed in special and off-year elections. Concluding, Martin said, "We'll continue that trend in New Jersey by organizing in every corner of the state, investing strategically, and working with our allies on the ground to elect more Democrats who will stand up to the Trump disaster and deliver for working families." Sherrill's campaign said in a statement, in part: "Let's be clear about the two visions in this race: I am ready to stand up to an extreme Washington that doesn't have New Jersey's best interests at heart. Jack has already surrendered to them. It's our duty to meet the moment and live up to our state's motto of liberty and prosperity, because a Trump yes man like Jack Ciattarelli in Trenton will threaten it all." She added: "While Jack is for Trump, I am for New Jersey. A New Jersey where housing is affordable so our kids can afford to live here, middle-class families can buy a home, and our seniors can afford to stay. A New Jersey where we finally take control of our energy future, and slash the cost of utilities. A New Jersey where a woman's right to an abortion is non-negotiable, and we respect the rule of law, due process, and the Constitution." Trump wrote on Truth Social over the weekend: "The Great State of New Jersey has a very important Primary coming up on Tuesday. Get Out and Vote for Jack Ciattarelli, who has my Complete and Total Endorsement! His Opponents are going around saying they have my Endorsement, which is not true, I don't even know who they are! We can't play games when it comes to Elections, and New Jersey is a very important State that we must WIN. The whole World is watching. Vote for Jack Ciattarelli to, MAKE NEW JERSEY GREAT AGAIN!" What Happens Next The general election in New Jersey's governor's race is on November 4. In addition to Sherrill and Ciattarelli, five third-party or independent candidates are also running for the seat.
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Politics
- Yahoo
Who is ahead in the NJ governor race on primary election day?
The Brief Voters in New Jersey will select Democratic and Republican candidates for governor on Tuesday. Nearly a dozen candidates are competing for the chance to succeed Gov. Murphy. Polls close at 8 p.m. Voters in New Jersey will have the chance to choose the Democrat and Republican candidates who will fight to succeed Phil Murphy as governor. Along with the governor, Tuesday is also the primaries for the state General Assembly and the uncontested special primaries in state Senate District 35. Here's a look at each candidate for governor, who's ahead for each party and when we can expect results. ***Click on each name to jump to their section. Mikie Sherrill Josh Gottheimer Ras Baraka Steve Fulop Sean Spiller Steve Sweeney Jack Ciattarelli Bill Spadea Jon Bramnick Mario Kranjac Justin Barbera Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey: According to a May survey, 28% of registered New Jersey Democratic voters said they would vote for U.S. Rep, Mikie Sherrill, as Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, and U.S. Rep. Josh Gottheimer each had 11% of Democratic responders' support. A month ahead of the primary, 24% of Dem voters said they were undecided. SurveyUSA: According to a poll conducted in May, voters showed slightly more favorable options for Sherrill compared to the rest of the field. Gottheimer was a close second. Fundraising numbers: Gottheimer has had a slight edge in fundraising, with about $9.1 million in contributions, followed by Sherrill and Fulop, each with about $8.9 million raised for their campaigns, according to the Associated Press. Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey: According to a May survey, 44% of registered New Jersey Republican voters said they would vote for former state Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli, while 18% support talk radio host Bill Spadea. A month ahead of the primary, 23% of GOP voters said they were undecided. SurveyUSA: The poll conducted in May only asked voters about Ciattarelli, who "has favorability ratings of 40%-36% among the broader electorate and 63%-19% among Trump voters," accordin gto the New Jersey Globe. Trump endorsement: President Donald Trump endorsed Ciattarelli in May and campaigned for him in a virtual rally. What they're saying "We've seen an increasing lead for Mikie Sherrill in public pre-election polling throughout the past few months," Ashley Koning, director of Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University, told FOX 5 NY's Morgan McKay on Politics Unusual. "But I would still say that potentially it may be almost anyone's game on the Democratic side, still, because again, we're talking about a primary election where these are low engagement, low turnout and we don't know exactly who is necessarily going to turn out to vote come Election Day." Turning to the Republican side, Koning calls Ciattarelli the "presumed frontrunner." "Yeah, he's the presumed frontrunner, and he's been leading by double digits for months now in any of the public pre-election polling," Koning said. "Again, you know, New Jersey is, we get pinged as this blue state because of our voting at a federal level since probably around the Clinton era, but let's remember that New Jersey is actually much more purple under the hood." How big of a role did President Trump play in the race? "So Trump is going to loom large over this race very much so," Koning said. "When we pulled this 46% of Republican registered voters in New Jersey told us that an endorsement from the president would make them more likely to go for that candidate." Dig deeper Nearly a dozen candidates are competing in New Jersey for the chance to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy. Sherrill is a former federal prosecutor and U.S. Navy helicopter pilot. She has represented the 11th District, which includes parts of Essex, Morris and Passaic counties, since her 2018 election. She has since won reelection three times. Gottheimer, a former speechwriter for Bill Clinton and adviser to the head of the Federal Communications Commission, toppled conservative Republican Rep. Scott Garrett in 2016. Gottheimer represents the state's 5th Congressional District, which spans parts of Bergen, Passaic and Sussex counties. Baraka is the current mayor of Newark. First elected mayor in 2014, Baraka has spent over a decade leading Newark through economic and social changes, including reductions in crime and homelessness, and improvements in infrastructure. Most recently, he was arrested outside the Delaney Hall federal immigration detention center while protesting its opening. Fulop, the third-term Democratic mayor of the state's second-biggest city, is a former Marine who served in Iraq after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. Back in January, Fulop floated the idea of a 'reverse congestion pricing' toll in an appearance on Good Day New York. Fulop suggested New Jersey could implement similar fees, capitalizing on the state's opportunities for cross-border tolling. Spiller is the president of the New Jersey Education Association and former mayor of Montclair. Spiller began as a science teacher before rising through the ranks of the New Jersey Education Association, becoming its president in 2021 after eight years on the executive board. Sweeney has centered his gubernatorial campaign on reforming New Jersey's budget process and addressing the state's housing challenges. With 20 years of public office experience, including more than a decade as Senate president, Sweeney is banking on his experience and commitment to tackling systemic issues. Ciattarelli, a Somerville native and business founder, is making another run for New Jersey governor. This time, he has the backing of President Trump. Ciattarelli nearly unseated Murphy back in 2021 and finished second in the 2017 GOP primary. This time, he says he is focused on tackling New Jersey's affordability crisis, citing rising taxes, tolls, and fees. Spadea is an entrepreneur and host of the Bill Spadea Show on NJ101.5 FM. Spadea says he's focused on New Jersey's budget and ending the illegal immigration crisis, which he claims costs taxpayers too much. Bramnick says he wants to create a government efficiency panel with private residents and business leaders to identify waste and areas for improvement. He's been in the State Senate since 2022 and was an Assemblyman for nearly two decades prior from 2003-2021. Kranjac is the former mayor of Englewood Cliffs, serving from 2016 to 2024. He calls himself a political outsider determined to change Trenton. Since leaving office, he has continued as a corporate attorney and venture capitalist. Barbera is a contractor and real estate developer from Burlington County. A Marlton native, Barbera's career includes work as a general contractor, insurance claim mitigator, freight carrier, and owner-operator of a CDL A flatbed and commercial snow service operation. By the numbers In the 2024 presidential election in New Jersey, the first results the AP reported came from Hudson County at 8:01 p.m. ET, one minute after polls closed. Vote tabulation ended for the night at 4:21 a.m. ET in Burlington County with about 95% of votes counted.
Newsweek
7 days ago
- Politics
- Newsweek
Republican Gets Good Sign in New Jersey Governor's Race Poll
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Republican New Jersey gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli received a potentially good sign about his favorability in a new poll of Garden State voters days ahead of the primary election. Newsweek has contacted Ciattarelli's and Representative Mikie Sherrill's campaigns for comment via email. Why It Matters New Jersey voters are set to head to the polls next Tuesday to pick party nominees for the gubernatorial race scheduled for November. The competitiveness of the election could hinge on which candidates prevail in the primaries, and the race has major implications for both parties. The election may indicate whether Democrats are winning back key voter groups that shifted right in the 2024 presidential race—such as young adults and Latinos—or whether Republicans can continue winning those groups even though President Donald Trump's approval has dropped since January. What To Know A new poll conducted by SurveyUSA found that Ciattarelli, who is viewed as a strong favorite to win the GOP nomination next week, is viewed favorably by a similar percentage of New Jersey voters as Sherrill, the Democrat who has held a narrow but consistent lead in primary election polls. However, Sherrill is viewed unfavorably by a smaller percent of voters. The poll found that 40 percent of voters viewed Ciattarelli favorably, while 41 percent viewed Sherrill favorably. Meanwhile, 36 percent viewed Ciattarelli unfavorably, while 29 percent viewed Sherrill unfavorably. Republican gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli at an election watch party in Bridgewater, New Jersey, on November 2, 2021. Republican gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli at an election watch party in Bridgewater, New Jersey, on November 2, percent of respondents were unfamiliar with Ciattarelli, while 30 percent were unfamiliar with Sherrill. The poll surveyed 576 likely voters from May 28 to 30 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 6.1 percentage points. Ciattarelli was the GOP's nominee in the 2021 gubernatorial race, when he came close to unseating Democratic Governor Phil Murphy, losing by about 3 percentage points. Independent polling on the general election hasn't been released, but Republicans are hoping to build on the increased support Trump saw in the state in November. While Joe Biden won the state easily in 2020, securing victory by 16 percentage points, Democratic support collapsed in the state last year. Then-Vice President Kamala Harris carried the state by only 6 points—the closet margin since 2004. Shifts in heavily Latino areas in the north of the state, as well as eroding Democratic support in South Jersey, contributed to the shift. The latest head-to-head poll of the Democratic primary showed Sherrill leading the Democratic side with 28 percent of the vote, followed by Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop and Representative Josh Gottheimer each at 11 percent. Emerson College conducted the poll between May 11 and 13 among 386 likely voters. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. What People Are Saying Democratic Representative Mikie Sherrill's campaign manager, Alex Ball, told Newsweek in May: "New Jersey saw in the debate why Mikie Sherrill continues to lead in every poll: her lifelong commitment to service, strong record getting big things done and her ability to beat Trump Republicans at every turn. Republicans are afraid to go up against Mikie in November because she knows how to win and then deliver for New Jerseyans." Republican gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli said on Fox & Friends First on Tuesday: "We're in a very commanding position in the primary. We're not taking anything for granted. We'll finish strong over the last week; early voting does start today. We'll be up and down the state once again delivering our message that there's only one Republican who can win in November, and that's why I'm honored to have President Trump's complete and total endorsement. I really am. Having his faith, trust and confidence. He knows New Jersey is in play." What Happens Next After the June 10 primary, voters are set to head to the polls for the general election on November 4. The Cook Political Report classifies the race as leaning Democrat—meaning it is "considered competitive," but the Democrats have "an advantage."
Newsweek
21-05-2025
- Politics
- Newsweek
Andrew Cuomo's Chances of Winning New York Primary: Recent Polls
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Former Governor Andrew Cuomo holds a commanding lead in the Democratic primary race for New York City mayor, according to a new poll. The poll, conducted by SurveyUSA between May 14-17 among 1,050 registered voters, shows that Cuomo is the first choice of 43 percent of likely Democratic voters with just over a month until the June primary. Cuomo is followed by New York State Assembly member Zohran Mamdani on 11 percent; former New York City Comptroller Scott Stringer on nine percent; current Comptroller Brad Lander on eight percent; City Council speaker Adrienne Adams on six percent; and State Senator Jessica Ramos on four percent. All other candidates register at two percent or below. Twelve percent of voters remain undecided. The poll suggests that Cuomo would perform strongly enough to clinch the nomination outright in the first round of ranked-choice voting — eliminating the need to rely on second-choice tallies. Newsweek has contacted Cuomo's representatives for comment on Wednesday. Andrew Cuomo in New York on Sunday. Cuomo holds a commanding lead in the Democratic primary race for New York City mayor, according to a new poll. Andrew Cuomo in New York on Sunday. Cuomo holds a commanding lead in the Democratic primary race for New York City mayor, according to a new poll. Yuki Iwamura/AP Why It Matters The strong polling numbers suggest that Cuomo's political base remains solid, and that his message is resonating with a sizable portion of the Democratic electorate. If these numbers persist, his path to the nomination may be smoother than expected. A primary win for Cuomo would mark a dramatic political comeback, just four years after he resigned as New York governor in 2021 amid the threat of impeachment over sexual misconduct allegations, which he has consistently denied. What To Know The SurveyUSA poll indicates that that Cuomo's advantage is solid — he leads across every major demographic and region of the city. His narrowest lead is an 11-point edge over Mamdani among very liberal voters, and voters aged 18 to 34. His largest margin is a 54-point advantage among moderate Democrats. Cuomo's supporters are also more likely to rank only one candidate — 17 percent say they will not select any additional choices, compared to just four percent of Mamdani's backers. Meanwhile, 36 percent of respondents say they have not heard enough about Mamdani to form an opinion, while only three percent say the same about Cuomo. Mamdani's strongest support comes from progressive and very liberal Democrats, where he receives 22 percent and 18 percent of the vote, respectively. But even in these groups Cuomo still leads, taking 33 percent and 37 percent. He is also ahead among non-progressive Democrats, securing 52 percent of support, while Mamdani captures just two percent. Other polls have also found Cuomo in a strong position. According to a Marist Poll conducted between May 1–8 among 3,383 likely Democratic primary voters, Cuomo was the first choice of 37 percent of respondents, including those who were undecided but leaning toward a candidate. Mamdani trailed significantly on 18 percent, followed by Adams on nine percent; Lander on eight percent; Stringer on four percent; and State Senator Zellnor Myrie on three percent. The poll showed that Cuomo held a broad and geographically strong lead. He performed best in the Bronx (50 percent), and posted strong showings in Queens and Staten Island (48 percent each). He also led in Manhattan and was tied with Mamdani in Brooklyn. His support was especially strong among older voters and communities of color — nearly half of voters over 45 backed him, along with 50 percent of Black voters and 41 percent of Latinos. Mamdani, by contrast, led among younger voters and very liberal Democrats. A separate Data for Progress poll conducted in March showed similar results: Cuomo led on 39 percent, followed by Mamdani on 15 percent, Lander on eight percent, and Eric Adams on seven percent. Though Cuomo appears to be in a strong position, the race is not set in stone. On Tuesday, Cuomo accused The New York Times of election interference after the Department of Justice (DOJ) launched a criminal investigation into whether he lied to Congress about his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. Republicans initially referred Cuomo to the DOJ for prosecution in October, when Democrats were in power. The department did not act on the referral at the time. But according to the Times, the U.S. Attorney's Office in Washington, D.C., initiated the inquiry about a month ago after Republicans renewed their request. What People Are Saying Rich Azzopardi, spokesperson for Cuomo, told Newsweek previously: "He's working hard to earn every vote and we've been humbled by the breadth of support from every corner of this great city." Marist pollster Lee Miringoff said: "Right now Cuomo is on a path to success. Someone is going to have to bring him down." What Happens Next Early voting for the primary is set to run from June 14 to 22.
