Latest news with #SuvroSarkar
Reuters
3 days ago
- Business
- Reuters
Oil price outlook weakens on OPEC+ hikes, lingering trade concerns
May 30 (Reuters) - Analysts have revised down their oil price forecasts for the third consecutive month as swelling OPEC+ supply and lingering uncertainty around the impact of trade disputes on fuel demand weigh on prices, a Reuters poll showed. A survey of 40 economists and analysts in May forecasts Brent crude will average $66.98 per barrel in 2025, down from April's $68.98 forecast, while U.S. crude is seen at $63.35, below last month's $65.08 estimate. Prices have averaged roughly $71.08 and $67.56 so far this year respectively, as per LSEG data. While tensions have somewhat eased between the U.S. and other trade partners, trade conflicts still loom as a key factor that could weaken oil demand, said Tobias Keller, analyst at UniCredit. "On the supply side, oil prices will be heavily influenced by OPEC+ production decisions, while geopolitical tensions... pose ongoing risks of disruption and price volatility," Keller added. Eight OPEC+ members began unwinding output cuts earlier this year, agreeing to larger-than-expected increases of 411,000 bpd for May and June. The members may decide on a similar output hike for July at a meeting on Saturday, sources have told Reuters. The move "seems driven by a desire to punish non-compliant members rather than support oil prices at any specific level. Compliance will be hard to enforce, especially in Kazakhstan," said Suvro Sarkar, lead energy analyst at DBS Bank. Meanwhile, analysts polled by Reuters expect global oil demand to grow by an average of 775,000 barrels per day in 2025, with many pointing to elevated trade uncertainty and the risk of economic slowdown as key concerns. This compares to the 740,000 bpd 2025 average demand growth forecast from the International Energy Agency earlier this month. With U.S. consumption and China oil demand constrained by fuel efficiency gains, economic uncertainty and the shift to electric mobility, "demand growth is largely coming from the resource nations themselves," said Norbert Ruecker, head of economics & next generation research at Julius Baer. Meanwhile, Russia's war in Ukraine continues to pose a geopolitical risk premium for oil. Analysts say markets have largely priced in the uncertainty. "Potential de-escalation efforts and the possibility of lifting sanctions on Russian oil could further lower prices," said Sarkar.
Business Insider
07-05-2025
- Business
- Business Insider
TotalEnergies upgraded to Buy from Hold at DBS Bank
DBS Bank analyst Suvro Sarkar upgraded TotalEnergies (TTE) to Buy from Hold with a EUR 58 price target Protect Your Portfolio Against Market Uncertainty Discover companies with rock-solid fundamentals in TipRanks' Smart Value Newsletter. Receive undervalued stocks, resilient to market uncertainty, delivered straight to your inbox. Published first on TheFly – the ultimate source for real-time, market-moving breaking financial news. Try Now>>
MTV Lebanon
11-03-2025
- Business
- MTV Lebanon
Oil prices inch up despite tariff concerns, slowdown fears
Oil prices pared earlier losses to inch up during trade on Tuesday, despite concerns over a potential U.S. recession, the impact of tariffs on global growth and as OPEC+ sets its sight on ramping up supply. Brent futures edged up 18 cents, or 0.3%, to $69.46 a barrel at 0640 GMT after falling in early trade. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 9 cents, or 0.1%, to $66.12 a barrel after previous declines as well. Despite the market noise, Brent at around $70 a barrel is quite a strong support and oil prices may look to stage a technical bounce at current levels, said Suvro Sarkar, energy sector team lead at DBS Bank, adding that the OPEC+ supply response will continue to remain flexible depending on market conditions. "If oil prices fall below the $70 per barrel mark for an extended period, output hikes may be paused in our opinion. OPEC+ will also keep a careful eye on Trump's Iran and Venezuela policies," he said. "The U.S. has already taken back Chevron's licence to operate in Venezuela and it remains to be seen whether Iran sanctions will be intensified. However, in the interim, worries about global growth amid policy uncertainties and trade wars will dominate." U.S. President Donald Trump's protectionist policies have roiled markets across the world, with Trump imposing and then delaying tariffs on his country's biggest oil suppliers, Canada and Mexico, while also raising duties on Chinese goods. China and Canada have responded with tariffs of their own. Over the weekend, Trump said a "period of transition" for the economy is likely but declined to predict whether the U.S. could face a recession amid stock market concerns about his tariff actions. "Trump's comments triggered a wave of selling as investors started pricing in the risk of weaker growth in demand," Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ said. Stocks, which crude prices often follow, slumped on Monday, with all three major U.S. indexes suffering sharp declines. The S&P 500 (.SPX), opens new tab had its biggest one-day drop since December 18 and the Nasdaq slid 4.0%, its biggest single-day percentage drop since September 2022. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Sunday Trump would not let up pressure on tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China. On the supply front, Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Friday the OPEC+ group agreed to start increasing oil production from April, but could reverse the decision afterwards if there were market imbalances. In the U.S., crude oil stockpiles were expected to have risen last week, while distillate and gasoline inventories likely fell, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday. The poll was conducted ahead of weekly reports from industry group the American Petroleum Institute, due at 4:30 p.m. EDT (2030 GMT) later on Tuesday, and the Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the U.S. Department of Energy, at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT) on Wednesday.
Arab News
11-03-2025
- Business
- Arab News
Oil Updates — prices inch up despite tariff concerns, slowdown fears
SINGAPORE: Oil prices pared earlier losses to inch up during trade on Tuesday, despite concerns over a potential US recession, the impact of tariffs on global growth and as OPEC+ sets its sight on ramping up supply. Brent futures edged up 18 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $69.46 a barrel at 9:40 a.m. Saudi time after falling in early trade. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 9 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $66.12 a barrel after previous declines as well. Despite the market noise, Brent at around $70 a barrel is quite a strong support and oil prices may look to stage a technical bounce at current levels, said Suvro Sarkar, energy sector team lead at DBS Bank, adding that the OPEC+ supply response will continue to remain flexible depending on market conditions. 'If oil prices fall below the $70 per barrel mark for an extended period, output hikes may be paused in our opinion. OPEC+ will also keep a careful eye on Trump's Iran and Venezuela policies,' he said. 'The US has already taken back Chevron's license to operate in Venezuela and it remains to be seen whether Iran sanctions will be intensified. However, in the interim, worries about global growth amid policy uncertainties and trade wars will dominate.' US President Donald Trump's protectionist policies have roiled markets across the world, with Trump imposing and then delaying tariffs on his country's biggest oil suppliers, Canada and Mexico, while also raising duties on Chinese goods. China and Canada have responded with tariffs of their own. Over the weekend, Trump said a 'period of transition' for the economy is likely but declined to predict whether the US could face a recession amid stock market concerns about his tariff actions. 'Trump's comments triggered a wave of selling as investors started pricing in the risk of weaker growth in demand,' Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ said. Stocks, which crude prices often follow, slumped on Monday, with all three major US indexes suffering sharp declines. The S&P 500 had its biggest one-day drop since Dec. 18 and the Nasdaq slid 4 percent, its biggest single-day percentage drop since September 2022. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Sunday Trump would not let up pressure on tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China. On the supply front, Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Friday the OPEC+ group agreed to start increasing oil production from April, but could reverse the decision afterwards if there were market imbalances. In the US, crude oil stockpiles were expected to have risen last week, while distillate and gasoline inventories likely fell, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday. The poll was conducted ahead of weekly reports from industry group the American Petroleum Institute, due at 11:30 p.m. Saudi time on Tuesday, and the Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the US Department of Energy, at 5:30 p.m. Saudi time on Wednesday.
