Latest news with #Sygnum
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Bitcoin's Double Top Warrants Caution, But a Full-Blown Price Crash Seems Unlikely: Sygnum Bank
Bitcoin's BTC double top prospects above $100,000 warrant caution, but a full-blown 2022-style crash looks unlikely unless an unexpected black swan hits, according to digital asset banking group Sygnum's Head of Investment Research Katalin Tischhauser. "The crypto market is strongly sentiment-driven as fundamental valuations are challenging; therefore, technical analysis signals such as the double top warrant caution. That said, a full-blown crash needs a catalyst like the Terra collapse of 2022 or the FTX blowup. Barring a similar black swan, we could see a prolonged bull cycle, based on the current political and regulatory support and sticky institutional capital flowing in," Tischhauser told CoinDesk in an interview. Bitcoin has spent 50 days mainly trading back and forth between $110,000 and $100,000, signaling an exhaustion of the uptrend near the highs reached in January this year. That has prompted several observers, including veteran technical analyst Peter Brandt, to consider the possibility of the BTC trend flipping bearish with a double-top pattern. The double top comprises two consecutive peaks at approximately the same price – near $110K in BTC's case – with a trendline drawn through the low point between these peaks. The low point in BTC's case is the early April slide to $75,000. Analysts are concerned that a potential double top breakdown, involving a downturn from $110,000 and a drop below $75,000, could lead to a crash to around $27,000. Yes, you read that right. Such a crash would mean a 75% slide from the peaks. Technical patterns, such as the double top, often become self-fulfilling prophecies – once traders spot the pattern, their collective action reinforces the expected outcome. So, it's natural for prospects of double top above $100,000 to cause some caution and price drop. However, technicals alone seldom cause a price crash of 75%. For instance, BTC's crash from $70,000 to $16,000 over the 12 months to November 2022 happened as the Fed's rate hike cycle exposed asset classes like crypto where excess speculation had built up, setting the stage for the demise of the Terra blockchain and the FTX exchange. Both events caused massive wealth destruction. The latest rally, however, is driven mainly by institutional flows rather than the story or pretence that DeFi is better than traditional finance or Ethereum is the new world computer, as Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal noted last year. Since their debut on the Nasdaq in January 2024, the 11 spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have registered net inflows of over $48 billion, per data tracked by Farside Investors. Meanwhile, BTC's adoption as a corporate Treasury asset has picked up the pace, adding to the bull momentum. As of the time of writing, 141 public companies held 841,693 BTC, according to The flows-driven nature of the latest bull run makes it more resilient than the previous bull markets, according to Tischhauser. "Institutions implement rigorous due diligence and risk assessment before they add a new asset class like bitcoin to the model portfolio. But when they do, the eventual allocation is for the long term. This trend of sticky institutional allocation is just beginning, and the resulting demand will continue to provide price support for some time to come," Tischhauser told CoinDesk. Tischhauser explained that these investment vehicles are sucking out liquidity, skewing the demand-supply dynamics in favour of a continued uptrend. "These investment vehicles are sucking liquidity out of the market, which means, every time a new big-ticket investor hits the market with bids, this is addressing less and less supply, and the bullish impact on prices becomes more pronounced," Tischhauser noted. The bearish double-top crash scenario appears plausible to many observers, as we are in the post-halving year, which has historically marked bull market tops, paving the way for year-long bear markets. Halving is a programmed code in Bitcoin's blockchain that reduces the pace of BTC supply expansion by 50% every four years. The last halving occurred in April 2024 and reduced the per-block BTC reward to 3.125 BTC from 6.25 BTC. However, the halving cycle may not unfold as expected, as sticky institutional adoption has a greater bearing on price than miners. Moreover, BTC sold by miners, who regulatory offload coins earned to fund operational costs, now accounts for a tiny percentage of the average daily trading volume. "The change in market leadership means the four-year halving cycle may not play out religiously as it did before. Earlier, most BTC holders were miners, and the BTC issued per year was a huge percentage of the outstanding bitcoin supply. So, selling pressure from miners mattered greatly to the market price. Now, the BTC mined is 0.05-0.1% of the average BTC daily trading volume and halving this supply has no impact on the supply/demand balance in the market. So the halving cycle may be dead," Tischhauser said.
Business Times
9 hours ago
- Business
- Business Times
Sygnum is sole new unicorn from South-east Asia in H1 2025: report
[SINGAPORE] Digital asset group Sygnum has emerged as the sole new unicorn from South-east Asia in the first half of 2025, data platform Tracxn said in a report released on Thursday (Jun 26). The Singapore-based firm attained unicorn status in January 2025, after three rounds of funding and a total of eight investors before its unicorn round. Tech funding in South-east Asia reached US$2 billion in H1 2025, boosted by late-stage funding deals. This was 7 per cent higher than US$1.8 billion in the year-ago period, but 24 per cent less than US$2.6 billion in H2 2024. 'These figures reflect both a short-term slowdown and a longer-term recovery trend in the regional market,' noted the report. H1 2025 was marked by more late-stage funding deals and a rise in mega-round activity, contrasting with a general slowdown in early and seed-stage investments, the report added. Seed-stage investments fell 68 per cent to US$87 million from US$270 million in H1 2024. Likewise, early-stage funding also declined 53 per cent to US$464 million from US$991 million. A NEWSLETTER FOR YOU Friday, 8.30 am Asean Business Business insights centering on South-east Asia's fast-growing economies. Sign Up Sign Up On the other hand, late-stage funding jumped 149 per cent to US$1.4 billion from US$562 million. There were five rounds of funding worth more than US$100 million in H1 2025, compared to just two rounds in H1 2024. Tech firms in Singapore accounted for 92 per cent of all funding seen across South-east Asia in H1 2025. Taguig, a city in the Philippines, trailed far behind in second. The report noted that the 'significant role' of Singapore as a funding hub, combined with strong activity across acquisitions and initial public offerings (IPOs), underscores the region's resilience and evolving role in the global technology landscape. The study pointed out three industries as the top-performing sectors. Enterprise infrastructure was the highest, attracting US$859 million in funding, a huge jump from just US$22.1 million raised in H1 2024. This was followed by fintech, with US$775 million raised – a 26 per cent decrease compared to the year-ago period. The enterprise applications sector rounded out the top three, raising US$545 million in H1 2025, about a third higher compared to US$409 million in H1 2024. 'The dominance of enterprise infrastructure, fintech and enterprise applications highlights growing investor focus on scalable and impact-driven sectors,' the report noted.
Business Times
10 hours ago
- Business
- Business Times
S-E Asia tech funding hits US$2 billion in H1 2025, yields unicorn in Sygnum: Tracxn
[SINGAPORE] Digital asset group Sygnum has emerged as the sole new unicorn from South-east Asia in the first half of 2025, data platform Tracxn said in a report released on Thursday (Jun 26). The Singapore-based firm attained unicorn status in January 2025, after three rounds of funding and a total of eight investors before their unicorn round. Tech funding in South-east Asia reached US$2 billion in the first half of 2025, boosted by late-stage funding deals. This was 7 per cent higher than US$1.8 billion in the year-ago period, but 24 per cent less than US$2.6 billion in H2 2024. 'These figures reflect both a short-term slowdown and a longer-term recovery trend in the regional market,' noted the report. The first half of 2025 was marked by more late-stage funding deals and a rise in mega-round activity, contrasting with a general slowdown in early and seed-stage investments, the report added. Seed-stage investments fell 68 per cent to US$87 million from US$270 million in H1 2024. Likewise, early-stage funding also declined 53 per cent to US$464 million from US$991 million. A NEWSLETTER FOR YOU Friday, 8.30 am Asean Business Business insights centering on South-east Asia's fast-growing economies. Sign Up Sign Up On the other hand, late-stage funding jumped 149 per cent to US$1.4 billion from US$562 million. There were five rounds of funding worth more than US$100 million in H1 2025, compared to just two rounds in the first half of 2024. Tech firms in Singapore accounted for 92 per cent of all funding seen across South-east Asia in the first half of 2025. Taguig, a city in the Philippines, trailed far behind in second. The report noted the 'significant role' of Singapore as a funding hub, combined with strong activity across acquisitions and IPOs, underscores the region's resilience and evolving role in the global technology landscape. The report pointed out three industries as the top-performing sectors. Enterprise infrastructure was the highest, attracting US$859 million in funding, a huge jump from just US$22.1 million raised in the first half of 2024. This was followed by fintech, with US$775 million raised – a 26 per cent decrease compared to the year-ago period. The enterprise applications sector rounded out the top three, raising US$545 million in the first half of 2025, about a third higher compared to US$409 million in H1 2024. 'The dominance of enterprise infrastructure, fintech and enterprise applications highlights growing investor focus on scalable and impact-driven sectors,' the report noted.
Yahoo
16-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Accumulation Threatens Its Reserve Asset Status, Sygnum Says
Benzinga and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue on some items through the links below. Bitcoin accumulation by public corporations continues to attract scrutiny as more firms burst on the scene. In the latest instance, digital asset bank Sygnum has warned that MicroStrategy's (NASDAQ:MSTR) aggressive Bitcoin accumulation could undermine the asset's potential as a reserve asset for central banks and other institutions. In the past five years, MicroStrategy has accumulated 582,000 BTC, representing nearly 3% of the total Bitcoin supply. The firm is not showing any signs of slowing down, with new purchases announced almost every week. In the most recent instance, MicroStrategy announced the purchase of 1,045 BTC for approximately $110.2 million. Don't Miss: — no wallets, just price speculation and free paper trading to practice different strategies. Grow your IRA or 401(k) with Crypto – . 'Large concentrated holdings are a risk for any asset and at this point [Micro] Strategy's holdings are approaching a point where they become problematic, with the company holding close to 3% of the total bitcoin ever issued, but a much higher share of the actual liquid supply,' Sygnum said on Tuesday. The digital asset bank said that the hit to liquid supply could reverse positive Bitcoin trends, such as declining volatility and increasing liquidity. These are factors often considered when selecting a reserve asset. 'Their [MicroStrategy's] goal of acquiring 5% of the total issued bitcoin raises concerns, not least because these vehicles amassing too much of the supply undermines bitcoin's safe haven properties,' Sygnum said. 'A private corporation controlling a large portion of the existing supply would make bitcoin inappropriate for central banks to hold as a reserve asset.' Beyond hampering the dream of Bitcoin becoming a global reserve asset, Sygnum said MicroStrategy's model posed 'certain risks for the crypto market as a whole,' echoing recent sentiments from Standard Chartered. Trending: New to crypto? on Coinbase. For one, the bank said that the leveraged strategies popularized by MicroStrategy are unsustainable, arguing that share premiums to BTC are likely to disappear as more firms copy the model and investor interest dissipates. The bank added that a prolonged market downturn or difficulties raising new funds could force the Bitcoin treasury firms to sell their holdings. 'These vehicles have catalyzed demand for bitcoin that cannot, or cannot yet, access the crypto market. In this regard, they have made a contribution similar to the impact of the Bitcoin ETFs,' Sygnum said. 'However, as demand levels off and is saturated by increased supply, the valuation of these shares relative to their bitcoin holdings is at risk. Additionally, these strategies also create certain risks for the crypto market as a whole.' Bitwise investment chief Matt Hougan said in November that 'the biggest missing piece' in Bitcoin's path to the $500,000 price point was central banks accumulating the asset. Hougan cited $500,000 as his benchmark for the asset's maturity. He pointed out that at that price, Bitcoin would boast the same market capitalization as gold. 'Today, governments hold roughly 20% of the world's gold reserves, compared to less than 2% of the world's bitcoin,' Hougan said at the time. 'For bitcoin to approach the half-million-dollar level, we would need to see that gap narrow.' At last look, only the El Salvadorian central bank holds Bitcoin as part of its foreign reserves. In March, President Donald Trump established a strategic Bitcoin reserve from seized assets through an executive order, but the Federal Reserve is not holding these assets. Other countries showing interest are the Czech Republic and Pakistan. Read Next: A must-have for all crypto enthusiasts: . Maker of the $60,000 foldable home has 3 factory buildings, 600+ houses built, and big plans to solve housing — Image: Shutterstock This article MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Accumulation Threatens Its Reserve Asset Status, Sygnum Says originally appeared on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
05-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Bitcoin Liquidity Crunch Points to Fresh Volatility as New Cycle Builds: Sygnum Bank
Bitcoin's BTC circulating supply is thinning out with an estimated 30% drop in liquid BTC over the last 18 months, a steep drain that could set the stage for potential upside volatility in the coming months, a Sygnum Bank's market outlook said Tuesday. 'Bitcoin's liquid supply is getting severely constrained while positive demand trends continue, creating the foundation for upside shocks in the price,' analysts wrote, adding the rise of ETF inflows, along with governments increasingly open to bitcoin reserves, is fueling speculation about a 'demand shock' scenario, where too many buyers chase too few coins. Over a million BTC has been withdrawn from exchanges since late 2023, Sygnum said, with ETFs and corporate treasuries driving the hoarding. That's putting added pressure on traders who need liquidity to exit during spikes or to cover shorts. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's role as a safe haven is getting a fresh boost from turmoil in U.S. Treasurys and a weakening dollar. Sygnum flagged that falling U.S. Treasury prices and ballooning federal debt are pushing investors back toward gold and bitcoin. The crypto's resilience in the face of these fiscal headwinds suggests it's becoming a go-to hedge. The report also highlighted new demand catalysts emerging on the geopolitical front, such as three U.S. states have now passed Bitcoin reserve bills, with New Hampshire already signed one into law, while Texas appears next in line. Overseas, Pakistan and even a U.K. party front-runner are weighing official BTC reserve allocations. These moves, while symbolic for now, could eventually add a major bid to the market if they materialize. The bottom line is that the ongoing crypto cycle looks far from over. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
