12-05-2025
Playbook PM: What to expect from Trump's Middle East trip
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THE CATCH-UP
THE SALT LINE — House Republicans' sweeping tax legislation is expected to include a $30,000 cap to the state and local tax deduction and a new income cap of $400,000 on taxpayers who are able to claim the bigger writeoff, POLITICO's Meredith Lee Hill and Benjamin Guggenheim report. The House Ways and Means Committee is set to unveil the full bill later today that will include a broader list of President Donald Trump's proposed tax cuts.
It's all still up for negotiation: The $30,000 cap comes in below the demands from key SALT-sensitive Republicans — a bloc of whom called that figure 'insulting' last week. In a call today, Speaker Mike Johnson emphasized that nothing is final. 'There's no set number yet. That's the whole thing. This is still being resolved,' he said. Discussions 'over the contours of the policy are expected to continue all the way up to a floor vote' expected for next week.
Trump still looms large: The president told reporters that he 'just called' Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune to inform them about the cost savings they could recoup for their party-line megabill from his tariff regime and the 'most favored nation' drug pricing executive order he signed today, POLITICO's Irie Sentner reports. A splash of cold water: The provisions that Trump touted this morning are not included in the current draft legislation and 'would be unlikely to get the near-unanimous GOP support needed for passage.'
More on the EO: 'Trump promises to slash drug costs, tying US prices to those paid abroad,' by POLITICO's David Lim
HITTING THE ROAD — Trump today is embarking on a four-day trip to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates for the first official state visit of his second term. Here's a rundown of what to expect as the week unfolds …
And what not to expect …
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6 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW
1. RUSSIA-UKRAINE LATEST: All eyes will be on Istanbul later this week as Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy aim to hold face-to-face peace talks starting on Thursday. Though details of the talks are still being hashed out, Trump told reporters today he's considering joining the two world leaders during his trip abroad. 'I was thinking about flying over,' Trump said. 'There's a possibility of it, I guess, if I think things can happen.'
Notable: Zelenskyy also encouraged Trump to join the talks this morning after Trump floated the idea. 'I hope that the Russians will not evade the meeting. And of course, all of us in Ukraine would appreciate it if President Trump could be there with us at this meeting in Türkiye,' he wrote in a post on X. 'This is the right idea. We can change a lot. President [Recep Tayyip Erdoğan] can indeed host highest-level meeting. Thank you to everyone who is helping.'
Tick, tick, tick: German officials announced that Europe will kick off a new round of sanctions against Russia by the end of the day unless the Kremlin agrees to abide by the 30-day ceasefire proposed by Europe and Ukraine over the weekend, Reuters' Tom Balmforth and Yuliia Dysa report. Ukrainian authorities reported a series of overnight attacks from Russia that continued into the early hours this morning, arguing the Kremlin is 'completely ignoring' the proposal.
2. A SIGH OF RELIEF: The suddenly struck deal between the U.S. and China over the weekend comes as a massive reprieve today to uneasy investors, who will be thrilled to see markets rallying in response to the trade truce.
So, what's next? Though the detente is in place for the next 90 days, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reassured reporters today that the talks are far from over, per the WSJ. 'Bessent said the U.S. still had grave concerns about its unbalanced trading relationship with China,' including manufactured subsidies and currency management. The secretary also noted that both sides 'agreed to a framework to keep talks progressing, which he said should help avoid any future tit-for-tat escalation.'
3. DEEP IN THE HEART: The Senate Leadership Fund is out with new polling in the highly watched Texas Senate race, and the latest results don't look great for longtime incumbent John Cornyn, Punchbowl's Ally Mutnick reports. Though the GOP leadership-backed PAC is supporting Cornyn as he faces off with Texas AG Ken Paxton, recent polling has stoked GOP fears that Paxton could upend the race.
A look at the numbers: The survey, which was conducted from April 27 to May 1 by The Tarrance Group, shows Paxton with a 16-point lead over Cornyn — 56 percent to 40 percent. In a three-way contest with Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas), who is also considering a run, Cornyn's deficit drops to 10 points: Paxton leads with 44 percent to Cornyn's 34 percent and Hunt slotting in with 19 percent.
The 30,000-foot view: 'Those results underscore a real fear for Republicans — that Paxton, a MAGA loyalist who has faced a slew of legal troubles, is best positioned to win a primary but could struggle in a general election. Yet more importantly, this poll is devastating for Cornyn … Privately, some GOP operatives increasingly believe there may be no path for him to secure the nomination. It's not the first survey to suggest Cornyn is in trouble, but this one comes from Cornyn allies.'
4. BY THE BOOKS: 'The leadership of the Library of Congress is in apparent dispute,' by POLITICO's Josh Gerstein and Katherine Tully-McManus: 'A DOJ official said President Donald Trump appointed Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche as acting Librarian of Congress. But the official who now holds that post, Robert Randolph Newlen, disputed a change had been made in an email to library staff Monday morning. 'Congress is engaged with the White House and we have not received direction from Congress about how to move forward,' Newlen wrote in an internal email to Library of Congress employees.'
5. IMMIGRATION FILES: The Trump administration spent at least $21 million transporting migrants to Guantanamo Bay on military aircrafts between between January and April, with the average flight cost totally over $26,000, NBC News' Courtney Kube scoops. 'The naval base there currently holds 32 migrants, according to a defense official, a tiny fraction of the 30,000 that President Donald Trump promised. Guantanamo has held a total of just under 500 migrants since Trump announced the effort in January, and it has never held more than 200 at any one time. Many of the migrants flown there are believed to have been flown back to the U.S.'
6. ANNALS OF INFLUENCE: The bidding ends today on the auction that will grant one of the Trump family's top crypto-coin investors a dinner with the president and a tour of the White House. After its announcement last month, the auction 'has set off a spectacle that has drawn bipartisan criticism, triggered a suspicious trading pattern, and left a sitting United States president wide open to attempts to corruptly influence him,' NYT's Eric Lipton and David Yaffe-Bellany report.
Though most of the coin's buyers are impossible to identify, 'the bidders' buying patterns, documented on a public ledger called the blockchain, suggest that a large share of the investors are based abroad. Many of the purchases took place on overseas crypto platforms like Binance or Bybit that do not allow United States-based users. … Under federal law, noncitizens are barred from donating to political campaigns. But nothing stops them from buying a $TRUMP memecoin.'
TALK OF THE TOWN
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and his family swam in Rock Creek yesterday.
TRANSITIONS — JR Kennelly is now president of OnPoint Data Strategy. He previously was director of strategic partnerships at i360. … Blake Schofield is now general counsel at the Children's Hospital Association. He previously was senior legal counsel at Lee Health. … Taylor Weeks Armentrout is now VP of government relations at Axiom Space. She previously was director of government affairs at Virgin Galactic.
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