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The arithmetic is tricky for a Shell bid for BP today. Next year may be different
The arithmetic is tricky for a Shell bid for BP today. Next year may be different

The Guardian

time9 hours ago

  • Business
  • The Guardian

The arithmetic is tricky for a Shell bid for BP today. Next year may be different

BP is a sitting duck for a takeover bid by most criteria. Its share price has underperformed rivals' for years. The latest strategic 're-set' was a bits-and-pieces production involving disposals, which do not happen overnight, plus a dilution of green energy ambitions that upset one sub-set of shareholders and didn't go far enough according to another. Meanwhile, the chair, Helge Lund, exits next year, pursued by an activist investor. So Shell, the most credible possible bidder by a distance, would be asleep at the wellhead if it were not taking a look and calculating what costs could be removed, which development licences it fancies and how regulators and governments might react. That's standard stuff, and Shell, one assumes, will have maintained a version of such modelling for about 20 years, which is roughly as long as tales of a combination of the two companies have been running. But here comes a response to media reports that was as definitive as these things tend to come: Shell says it has 'no intention' of making an offer for BP, a statement that takes it off-side as a bidder for six months under Takeover Panel rules. One should still remember the small print about the circumstances in which the Panel's Rule 2.8 does not apply, because two are not unimaginable – somebody else taking a pop, or BP's board agreeing to a bid. But Shell also said it 'has not been actively considering making an offer' and 'has not made an approach', which was a strong signal to the market to cool its jets. The share prices of the two companies, after a brief burst of excitement in New York trading, went back to where they were. We're also back to the same place in terms of pin-pointing the biggest obstacle to a deal: Shell's share price. Or, more precisely, it is Shell management's loud declarations that its shares are dirt cheap and therefore should be bought by the company itself in large quantities for cancellation. Buy-backs have run at $3bn or more for 14 quarters in a row. 'I have said in the past that we want to be value hunters,' Wael Sawan, the chief executive, said in May. 'Today, value hunting – in my view – is buying back more Shell.' That doesn't in itself rule out mega bids, but it sets 'an incredibly high bar,' as the finance director, Sinead Gorman, put it. The thinking makes sense. Any £60bn-plus bid for an ailing rival would inevitably involve Shell issuing oodles of new paper. That is tricky to justify if you genuinely believe your acquisition currency is seriously undervalued and you add value by maintaining buy-backs. BP is not a must-do deal for Shell, as argued here previously. The arithmetic might work if BP's board agreed to roll over and be bought at a tiny takeover premium – but that possibility must be remote. None of which is to deny the industrial logic in a combination. There probably are huge costs that could be ripped out. Panmure Liberum's analyst notes that BP has more than 100,000 staff, yet Shell delivers far higher returns with 96,000. Equally, one could imagine Shell offering to buy chunks of BP's oil and gas acreage but not the whole company, something that is not excluded under Rule 2.8. But the takeover dance feels like it requires Shell's share price to be higher to make the numbers work. On that front, the recent trend is in the right direction but more progress is surely needed, which is why a 'nothing for six months' statement is costless from Shell's point of view. Next year the arithmetic may stack up more easily. As for BP, this is starting to feel like a proper crisis. Its share price has drifted even lower since the unveiling in February of the supposedly 'exciting' new strategy. Disposals to ease the strain on the balance sheet remain a work in progress. One assumes a new chair, with authority to re-set the re-set, will be found before the six months are up. But the appointment can't come soon enough.

Shell plc ('Shell') statement re BP plc ('BP')
Shell plc ('Shell') statement re BP plc ('BP')

Globe and Mail

time19 hours ago

  • Business
  • Globe and Mail

Shell plc ('Shell') statement re BP plc ('BP')

NOT FOR RELEASE, PUBLICATION OR DISTRIBUTION, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN, INTO OR FROM ANY JURISDICTION WHERE TO DO SO WOULD CONSTITUTE A VIOLATION OF THE RELEVANT LAWS OF THAT JURISDICTION FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE THIS ANNOUNCEMENT IS AN ANNOUNCEMENT UNDER RULE 2.8 OF THE UK CITY CODE ON TAKEOVERS AND MERGERS (THE 'CODE') 26 June 2025 Shell plc ('Shell') statement re BP plc ('BP') In response to recent media speculation Shell wishes to clarify that it has not been actively considering making an offer for BP and confirms it has not made an approach to, and no talks have taken place with, BP with regards to a possible offer. This is a statement to which Rule 2.8 of the Code applies and accordingly Shell confirms it has no intention of making an offer for BP. As a result Shell will be bound by the restrictions set out in Rule 2.8 of the Code. We remain focused on delivering more value with less emissions through performance, discipline and simplification. Under Note 2 on Rule 2.8 of the Code, Shell reserves the right to set the restrictions in Rule 2.8 aside in the following circumstances: with the agreement of the board of BP; if a third party announces a firm intention to make an offer for BP; if BP announces a Rule 9 waiver (see Note 1 of the Notes on Dispensations from Rule 9) or a reverse takeover (as defined in the Code); and if there has been a material change of circumstances (as determined by the Takeover Panel). The contents of this announcement will be available at The content of the website referred to in this announcement is not incorporated into and does not form part of this announcement. ENQUIRIES Shell Media Relations

Frasers group won't bid for Revolution Beauty, but reserves right to rethink
Frasers group won't bid for Revolution Beauty, but reserves right to rethink

Fashion Network

time19-06-2025

  • Business
  • Fashion Network

Frasers group won't bid for Revolution Beauty, but reserves right to rethink

Retail giant Frasers Group said on Thursday that it won't be bidding for Revolution Beauty after having confirmed earlier this month that it was looking at a cash offer for the up-for-sale business. Yet there were caveats and as is often the case with Frasers' acquisition activity, this may not be the end of the story. In a brief stock exchange release headlined 'Statement of Intention Not to Make an Offer for Revolution Beauty Group plc', it said that it 'does not intend to make an offer for Revolution Beauty… [and] Frasers Group and any person(s) acting in concert with it will, except with the consent of the Takeover Panel, be bound by the restrictions contained in Rule 2.8 of the Code'. Rule 2.8 of the UK Takeover Code restricts anyone who's said they have no intention to make an offer for a company from making another offer or acquiring shares in that company for six months. But the Takeover Panel can grant dispensations from this rule and Frasers said it. 'reserves the right to set the restrictions in Rule 2.8 of the Code aside in the following circumstances: with the agreement of the board of directors of Revolution Beauty; following the announcement by or on behalf of a third-party of a firm intention to make an offer for Revolution Beauty; if Revolution Beauty announces a Rule 9 waiver proposal (as described in Note 1 of the Notes on Dispensations from Rule 9 of the Code) or a reverse takeover (as defined in the Code); and if there has been a material change of circumstances (as determined by the Takeover Panel)'. So as usual, we just need to watch and wait.

Frasers group won't bid for Revolution Beauty, but reserves right to rethink
Frasers group won't bid for Revolution Beauty, but reserves right to rethink

Fashion Network

time19-06-2025

  • Business
  • Fashion Network

Frasers group won't bid for Revolution Beauty, but reserves right to rethink

Retail giant Frasers Group said on Thursday that it won't be bidding for Revolution Beauty after having confirmed earlier this month that it was looking at a cash offer for the up-for-sale business. Yet there were caveats and as is often the case with Frasers' acquisition activity, this may not be the end of the story. In a brief stock exchange release headlined 'Statement of Intention Not to Make an Offer for Revolution Beauty Group plc', it said that it 'does not intend to make an offer for Revolution Beauty… [and] Frasers Group and any person(s) acting in concert with it will, except with the consent of the Takeover Panel, be bound by the restrictions contained in Rule 2.8 of the Code'. Rule 2.8 of the UK Takeover Code restricts anyone who's said they have no intention to make an offer for a company from making another offer or acquiring shares in that company for six months. But the Takeover Panel can grant dispensations from this rule and Frasers said it. 'reserves the right to set the restrictions in Rule 2.8 of the Code aside in the following circumstances: with the agreement of the board of directors of Revolution Beauty; following the announcement by or on behalf of a third-party of a firm intention to make an offer for Revolution Beauty; if Revolution Beauty announces a Rule 9 waiver proposal (as described in Note 1 of the Notes on Dispensations from Rule 9 of the Code) or a reverse takeover (as defined in the Code); and if there has been a material change of circumstances (as determined by the Takeover Panel)'. So as usual, we just need to watch and wait.

UK's Assura gets deadline extension for potential PHP deal
UK's Assura gets deadline extension for potential PHP deal

Reuters

time07-04-2025

  • Business
  • Reuters

UK's Assura gets deadline extension for potential PHP deal

April 7 (Reuters) - British healthcare REIT Assura (AGRP.L), opens new tab on Monday said that Britain's Takeover Panel has extended the deadline for its potential deal with Primary Health Properties (PHP.L), opens new tab to May 5. The PUSU deadline, known as the "put up or shut up" date, requires a potential bidder to either make a firm offer for the target by this date or walk away. Assura, which manages over 600 healthcare properties with an investment value exceeding 3 billion pounds ($3.84 billion), counts Britain's state-backed National Health Service as a customer. It has fielded seven proposals from PHP and a U.S. consortium of KKR (KKR.N), opens new tab and Stonepeak Partners in recent weeks. Shares of Assura opened lower, in line with the London market, but reversed some losses following the announcement. By 1406 GMT, shares were down 2.1% at 44.9 pence. The company said it remains in discussions with the consortium about a potential deal. ($1 = 0.7817 pounds)

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