05-02-2025
What Trump's tariffs could mean for Florida
When President Donald Trump's administration announced it would impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, the world reacted. Florida-based businesses, from those that import or export goods at Port Tampa Bay to builders in need of construction materials for ongoing real estate projects, braced for market impacts.
On Monday, Trump put a month-long pause on North American tariffs, while 10% tariffs on Chinese goods went into effect. The pause gives Florida-based companies more time to speculate and strategize before being pulled into a potential trade war.
The Tampa Steel Conference brought steel leaders from around the world to Water Street this week. Speakers ripped up their notecards as the tariff situation changed by the hour. Several conference sessions centered around preparing for 'Trump 2.0... when a single post on Truth Social could end up altering trade policy.'
'Keep the faith. Everything's going to be okay,' said Michael Shin, chief supply chain officer for Trinity Rail, a Dallas-based company. Wry laughter broke out among audience members — many of whom have seen tariffs play out before.
During Trump's first term, steel and aluminum were the products most hammered by tariffs, which increased domestic steel manufacturing by 5% while more than tripling prices for some products, per a federal report. Around 350,000 tons of steel came through Port Tampa Bay in 2024, up more than half from the previous year.
This time around, tariffs could affect a broader range of products from Canada, Mexico and China — from produce and construction materials to cars and gasoline.
Here's how this round of tariffs could affect Floridians' pocketbooks.
Michael Coon, an associate professor of economics at the University of Tampa, said one of the biggest misconceptions people have is that tariffs make it more costly for certain countries to send goods to the U.S.
In reality, it's a tax on American consumers and companies.
'If we buy an iPhone or a laptop, the people making the iPhones and laptops are charging the same price to everybody in the world. We just have to pay to bring it into the country,' Coon said.
Many of the local companies who may have to pay higher tariffs on imported goods are at Port Tampa Bay, which processes more cargo tonnage than other Florida ports. In 2021, more than a third of Tampa's cargo — 11 million tons — came from or went to foreign countries. Canada ships the most goods into Tampa's port, while Mexico is the third-most common destination for exports.
The port doesn't directly pay for import tariffs, said spokesperson Lisa Wolf-Chason. But it does collect wharfage fees when unloading arriving cargo. The port could lose some revenue from those fees if tenants import fewer shiploads.
Some of the top products moving through Port Tampa Bay are fuel and limestone, a construction material and fertilizer ingredient. Tampa's port supplies fuel to almost half of Florida's population, Wolf-Chason said.
Gas prices could rise in northern states that depend on Canadian crude oil, said Patrick De Haan, a lead analyst at GasBuddy, a fuel tracking site.
Port Tampa Bay obtains most of its fuel from refineries in Texas. That domestic supply chain wouldn't be impacted by tariffs, protecting Floridians from major price increases, De Haan said.
But consumers should look out for seasonal price increases, he said. Gas prices typically peak in April, as production methods change from winter to summer and more Americans hit the road during warmer months.
Floridians may not as easily avoid increases in car prices. Almost all U.S. car manufacturers will be impacted by the tariffs, according to S&P Global Mobility, an automotive industry publication.
Most automakers import between 20% and 60% of cars from Canada and Mexico. They'll likely pass on most of those increased production costs — around $6,250 on average — to consumers nationwide, per S&P Global.
Coon said grocery stores will likely be one of the first places for prices to rise since the U.S. imports much of its agricultural products and alcohol from Mexico.
The construction industry is also bracing for possible effects.
'More than 70% of the imports of two essential materials that home builders rely on — softwood lumber and gypsum (used for drywall) — come from Canada and Mexico, respectively,' said Carl Harris, chairman of the National Association of Homebuilders, in a statement.
There is already a 14.5% tariff on Canadian lumber.
Willy Nunn, president and CEO of local homebuilder Homes by WestBay said he is most concerned about companies panic-buying to get ahead of potential tariffs.
'That could lead to shortages of certain materials,' he said. Increased demand could cause prices to spike even without a tariff.
It's possible that other countries might impose retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. These can often be used to target specific industries. For instance, the last time President Trump was in office, the European Union imposed a 25% tariff on American whiskey.
'Imagine if there was a retaliatory tariff on something like citrus,' Coon said. 'That could have a disproportionate affect on Florida.'
Retaliatory tariffs could impact another major Florida exporting industry: aircraft and aerospace products.
The state generated $10.6 billion in exports in 2023, according to the Greater Fort Lauderdale Alliance. In a statement, the Aerospace Industries Association expressed hope that the Trump administration would help protect the industry.
Most Florida industry leaders are waiting to see what comes in 30 days. It could be months before the tariffs' economic impacts are felt.
