Latest news with #TanvirSandhu
Bloomberg
06-05-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Navigating Crypto Volatility: All Options Considered
In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI's Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Dan Tapiero, Founder & CEO of 10T Holdings & 1RoundTable Partners, to discuss how to navigate the volatility of digital assets. All Options Considered is part of the FICC Focus podcast. Listen to FICC Focus on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Apple: Spotify:
Free Malaysia Today
28-04-2025
- Business
- Free Malaysia Today
Gold's bullish sentiment eases as record rally stumbles
Gold reached a record last week, with SPDR Gold Shares ETF options trading surpassing 1.3 million contracts, an unprecedented level. (Freepik pic) SINGAPORE : The gold rally has outshone other asset classes this month — even drawing some comparisons to bitcoin — as President Donald Trump's tariff war reshapes the global economic order, pushing investors to look for safety. Now, shifts in options positioning has some market watchers saying it's time to get cautious. As bullion hit a record last week, the trading of options on the SPDR Gold Shares ETF surpassed 1.3 million contracts, a level never reached before. At the same time, the cost of hedging against declines in the exchange-traded fund sits near its lowest level since August while implied volatility has surged, an unusual pattern. 'Gold and bitcoin have exhibited spot-up, vol-up dynamics, similar to Mag 7 in recent years,' said Tanvir Sandhu, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief global derivatives strategist. Call demand for the metal has surged, while the recent drop in the asset has made the implied volatility across strikes more balanced, he added. Gold has already lost more than 5% from its intraday peak last week on signs some trade tensions may be easing. Meanwhile, hedge fund managers have cut their net long futures and options positions on the metal to the lowest level in more than a year, the latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. The recent risk-off period, catalysed by tariffs and led by the theme that 'US exceptionalism' is ending, has helped gold's strong outperformance versus other asset classes this month, including Treasuries and US equities. But for Barclays Plc strategists, the metal is running ahead of its fundamentals. In a note last week, they pointed out that the recent streak of monthly gold purchases is not unusual relative to the long-term trend of central banks buying the asset. The outperformance has also brought significant speculation, with calls on the gold ETF skyrocketing after Trump's 'Liberation Day,' leading to an inversion of skew, Barclays's Stefano Pascale noted. That, along with the drop in hedge fund positioning and the recent decline in bullion are reasons to be cautious — at least in the short term, the strategists said. 'We think that gold is going to come down,' Pascale said in an interview, adding that the commodity is 'dislocated' with respect to its 'fundamental drivers' of the US dollar and real rates. 'Technicals are starting to be a little bit stretched.' Garrett DeSimone, head quantitative analyst at OptionMetrics, sees similarities with bitcoin. And to him, both assets could rally further as their implied volatility and skew remain within the long-term historical ranges. 'From the options market perspective, upside and downside weights are pretty even,' he said. With Barclays's proprietary indicator showing that sentiment is still bullish on gold, the strategists recommend selling June calls to buy puts for a zero-cost risk reversal. 'Obviously, the trade is mostly directional, so for this trade to really work gold has to come down,' said Pascale.
Straits Times
28-04-2025
- Business
- Straits Times
Gold's bullish sentiment seen easing as record rally stumbles
Gold has already lost more than 5 per cent from its intraday peak last week on signs some trade tensions may be easing. PHOTO: REUTERS LONDON – The gold rally has outshone other asset classes in April – even drawing some comparisons to bitcoin – as US President Donald Trump's tariff war reshapes the global economic order, pushing investors to look for safety. Now, shifts in options positioning has some market watchers saying it is time to get cautious. As bullion hit a record on April 21, the trading of options on the SPDR Gold Shares ETF surpassed 1.3 million contracts, a level never reached before. At the same time, the cost of hedging against declines in the exchange-traded fund sits near its lowest level since August while implied volatility has surged, an unusual pattern. 'Gold and bitcoin have exhibited spot-up, vol-up dynamics, similar to Mag 7 in recent years,' said Mr Tanvir Sandhu, Bloomberg Intelligence's chief global derivatives strategist. Call demand for the metal has surged, while the recent drop in the asset has made the implied volatility across strikes more balanced, he added. Gold has already lost more than 5 per cent from its intraday peak last week on signs some trade tensions may be easing. Meanwhile, hedge fund managers have cut their net long futures and options positions on the metal to the lowest level in more than a year, the latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. The recent risk-off period, catalysed by tariffs and led by the theme that 'US Exceptionalism' is ending, has helped gold's strong outperformance versus other asset classes this month, including Treasuries and US equities. But for Barclays strategists, the metal is running ahead of its fundamentals. In a note last week, they pointed out that the recent streak of monthly gold purchases is not unusual relative to the long-term trend of central banks buying the asset. The outperformance has also brought significant speculation, with calls on the gold ETF skyrocketing after Trump's 'Liberation Day,' leading to an inversion of skew, Barclays's Stefano Pascale noted. That, along with the drop in hedge fund positioning and the recent decline in bullion are reasons to be cautious – at least in the short term, the strategists said. 'We think that gold is going to come down,' Mr Pascale said in an interview, adding that the commodity is 'dislocated' with respect to its 'fundamental drivers' of the US dollar and real rates. 'Technicals are starting to be a little bit stretched.' Mr Garrett DeSimone, head quantitative analyst at OptionMetrics, sees similarities with bitcoin. And to him, both assets could rally further as their implied volatility and skew remain within the long-term historical ranges. 'From the options market perspective, upside and downside weights are pretty even,' he said. With Barclays's proprietary indicator showing that sentiment is still bullish on gold, the strategists recommend selling June calls to buy puts for a zero-cost risk reversal. 'Obviously, the trade is mostly directional, so for this trade to really work gold has to come down,' said Mr Pascale. BLOOMBERG Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
Bloomberg
24-03-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Bloomberg Volatility Forum London 2025
This edition of All Options Considered is the recording of part of the Bloomberg Volatility Forum 2025 held in London on March 18th. It starts with the opening speech by BI's chief global derivatives strategist Tanvir Sandhu on macro and volatility across markets. This is followed by the discussion from the first panel on the options market with Dennis Davitt, CEO at Millbank Dartmoor Portsmouth, Pierre-Henri de Monts de Savasse, Senior Portfolio Manager at RBC BlueBay and Pierre de Saab, Former Partner at Dominice. The panel is moderated by Noel Hebert, Global Director of FICC Strategy at Bloomberg Intelligence.
