Latest news with #TaylorNugent
Business Recorder
2 days ago
- Business
- Business Recorder
Australia, NZ dollars back away from resistance, data a drag
SYDNEY: The Australian and New Zealand dollars backed away from resistance on Tuesday as soft economic data encouraged profit-taking on an overnight surge, while nudging short-term yields lower. The see-saw action left the Aussie down 0.4% at $0.6468 , unwinding some of Monday's 1% rally to $0.6500 that came amid a broad tariff-inspired sell off in the U.S. dollar. This is the fourth time since early May that the Aussie has failed to sustain a push past $0.6500, leading speculators to play the range and making it a self-reinforcing barrier. The kiwi dollar did briefly breach its recent top to reach a six-month high of $0.6054, before profit-taking pulled it back to $0.6013. Still, a finish above $0.6000 would be bullish for a sustained rise to the $0.6120/45 zone. The Aussie hit a further hurdle when data showed net exports and government spending both dragged on economic growth last quarter, pointing to a very sluggish start to the year. Figures on first-quarter gross domestic product are due on Wednesday and are expected to show only modest growth of 0.4%, with even that in doubt now. 'We have lowered our GDP forecast to 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, from 0.5%.' said Taylor Nugent, a senior markets economist at NAB. He noted consumer spending had again undershot forecasts and there was little sign of the pick up long expected by the Reserve Bank of Australia. 'Our view remains that the RBA will ease away from restrictive settings reasonably quickly in order to sustain healthy labour outcomes amid a fragile recovery in consumption growth and offshore headwinds,' Nugent added. 'We expect rate cuts in July, August and November to 3.1%.' The central bank last cut by a quarter point to 3.85% in May, and minutes of that meeting showed they seriously considered easing by an outsized 50 basis points given global risks stemming from U.S. tariffs. Markets imply around a 77% chance the RBA will ease again at its next meeting on July 8, and that rates will reach 3.10% or lower by early next year. 'The July meeting is 'live' given the discussion in the Minutes and we expect it will come down to the data flow between now and then,' said Belinda Allen, a senior economist at CBA. 'We continue to expect two more rate cuts this cycle and favour an August and September cut,' added Allen.
Mint
2 days ago
- Business
- Mint
Australia, NZ dollars back away from resistance, data a drag
SYDNEY, June 3 (Reuters) - The Australian and New Zealand dollars backed away from resistance on Tuesday as soft economic data encouraged profit-taking on an overnight surge, while nudging short-term yields lower. The see-saw action left the Aussie down 0.4% at $0.6468 , unwinding some of Monday's 1% rally to $0.6500 that came amid a broad tariff-inspired sell off in the U.S. dollar. This is the fourth time since early May that the Aussie has failed to sustain a push past $0.6500, leading speculators to play the range and making it a self-reinforcing barrier. The kiwi dollar did briefly breach its recent top to reach a six-month high of $0.6054, before profit-taking pulled it back to $0.6013. Still, a finish above $0.6000 would be bullish for a sustained rise to the $0.6120/45 zone. The Aussie hit a further hurdle when data showed net exports and government spending both dragged on economic growth last quarter, pointing to a very sluggish start to the year. Figures on first-quarter gross domestic product are due on Wednesday and are expected to show only modest growth of 0.4%, with even that in doubt now. "We have lowered our GDP forecast to 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, from 0.5%." said Taylor Nugent, a senior markets economist at NAB. He noted consumer spending had again undershot forecasts and there was little sign of the pick up long expected by the Reserve Bank of Australia. "Our view remains that the RBA will ease away from restrictive settings reasonably quickly in order to sustain healthy labour outcomes amid a fragile recovery in consumption growth and offshore headwinds," Nugent added. "We expect rate cuts in July, August and November to 3.1%." The central bank last cut by a quarter point to 3.85% in May, and minutes of that meeting showed they seriously considered easing by an outsized 50 basis points given global risks stemming from U.S. tariffs. Markets imply around a 77% chance the RBA will ease again at its next meeting on July 8, and that rates will reach 3.10% or lower by early next year. "The July meeting is 'live' given the discussion in the Minutes and we expect it will come down to the data flow between now and then," said Belinda Allen, a senior economist at CBA. "We continue to expect two more rate cuts this cycle and favour an August and September cut," added Allen. (Reporting by Wayne Cole)
West Australian
28-05-2025
- Business
- West Australian
Inflation read sours back-to-back rate cuts
Hopes of back-to-back rate cuts slid on Wednesday after inflation data came in higher than the previous month, despite April usually being a month for price hikes. The Australian Bureau of Statistics' April inflation print shows the all-important trimmed mean inflation, which the Reserve Bank uses to measure Australia's inflation rate, came in hotter than expected. CPI excluding volatile items and holiday travel measure rose 2.8 per cent in the 12 months to April, compared to a 2.6 per cent rise in the 12 months to March. Australia's overall CPI indicator – including volatile items - came in at 2.4 per cent, but again was higher than market forecasts of 2.3 per cent year-on-year. The largest contributor was food and non-alcoholic beverages, housing and recreation and culture, during the busy Easter and Anzac Day weekends. NAB senior economist Taylor Nugent says travel is expected to be a key support in April as it is usually a seasonally strong month for the category, and the month includes Easter and ANZAC long weekends. Elsewhere, health insurance premium increases are measured in April and were a little higher than a year ago, while fuel prices fell in the month, and there may be some additional unwind of Queensland electricity subsidies, according to Mr Nugent.
Yahoo
28-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Fresh blow for mortgage holders
Hopes of back-to-back rate cuts slid on Wednesday after inflation data came in higher than the previous month, despite April usually being a month for price hikes. The Australian Bureau of Statistics' April inflation print shows the all-important trimmed mean inflation, which the Reserve Bank uses to measure Australia's inflation rate, came in hotter than expected. CPI excluding volatile items and holiday travel measure rose 2.8 per cent in the 12 months to April, compared to a 2.6 per cent rise in the 12 months to March. Australia's overall CPI indicator – including volatile items - came in at 2.4 per cent, but again was higher than market forecasts of 2.3 per cent year-on-year. The largest contributor was food and non-alcoholic beverages, housing and recreation and culture, during the busy Easter and Anzac Day weekends. NAB senior economist Taylor Nugent says travel is expected to be a key support in April as it is usually a seasonally strong month for the category, and the month includes Easter and ANZAC long weekends. Elsewhere, health insurance premium increases are measured in April and were a little higher than a year ago, while fuel prices fell in the month, and there may be some additional unwind of Queensland electricity subsidies, according to Mr Nugent. Sign in to access your portfolio
Perth Now
28-05-2025
- Business
- Perth Now
Fresh blow for mortgage holders
Hopes of back-to-back rate cuts slid on Wednesday after inflation data came in higher than the previous month, despite April usually being a month for price hikes. The Australian Bureau of Statistics' April inflation print shows the all-important trimmed mean inflation, which the Reserve Bank uses to measure Australia's inflation rate, came in hotter than expected. CPI excluding volatile items and holiday travel measure rose 2.8 per cent in the 12 months to April, compared to a 2.6 per cent rise in the 12 months to March. Australia's overall CPI indicator – including volatile items - came in at 2.4 per cent, but again was higher than market forecasts of 2.3 per cent year-on-year. High rental prices added to Australia's inflation rate. NewsWire / Andrew Henshaw Credit: News Corp Australia The largest contributor was food and non-alcoholic beverages, housing and recreation and culture, during the busy Easter and Anzac Day weekends. NAB senior economist Taylor Nugent says travel is expected to be a key support in April as it is usually a seasonally strong month for the category, and the month includes Easter and ANZAC long weekends. Elsewhere, health insurance premium increases are measured in April and were a little higher than a year ago, while fuel prices fell in the month, and there may be some additional unwind of Queensland electricity subsidies, according to Mr Nugent.
