4 days ago
UFC 316 Fight Card Odds And Predictions: Pena Vs. Harrison
MIAMI, FLORIDA - APRIL 11: (L-R) Opponents Julianna Pena and Kayla Harrison face off during the UFC ... More 316 press conference at Kaseya Center on April 11, 2025 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)
Two bantamweight title fights headline Saturday's UFC 316 pay-per-view fight card. In the main event, Merab Dvalishvili puts his men's title on the line against the opponent he took the 135-pound belt from, Sean O'Malley. Meanwhile, in the UFC 316 co-main event, Julianna Pena looks to defend her women's bantamweight crown against former PFL lightweight champion Kayla Harrison.
With the UFC 316 fight card fast approaching, we look at betting odds, line movement, preview, picks, and predictions for the Pena vs. Harrison title fight, which takes place at Prudential Center. The UFC 316 PPV card streams on ESPN+ following prelims on ESPN and early prelims on ESPN+ and UFC Fight Pass.
MIAMI, FLORIDA - APRIL 11: Julianna Pena is seen on stage during the UFC 316 press conference at ... More Kaseya Center on April 11, 2025 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC)
Julianna Pena (12-5) earned her UFC contract by winning Season 18 of The Ultimate Fighter. A member of Team Tate, Pena knocked out Jessica Rakoczy in the first round of their November 2013 matchup. The win moved Pena's record to 5-2.
Pena ran off three victories after that, beating Milana Dudieva, Jessica Eye and Cat Zingano before Valentina Shevchenko ended her winning streak with a January 2017 armbar submission.
In October 2017 Pena announced her pregnancy. When she returned to action in July 2019, Pena defeated Nicco Montano by decision. A submission loss to De Randamie in October 2020 followed.
In January 2021, Pena submitted Sara McMann. Pena, sitting at No. 3 in the women's bantamweight rankings, earned a shot at Amanda Nunes and her bantamweight title in December 2021. She entered that contest as a -650 underdog to the champ, who was the -1000 betting favorite.
In one of the more shocking upsets in UFC title fight history, Pena submitted Nunes in the second round, ending the Brazilian's title reign.
Pena's time at the top of the division was short, as Nunes won their July 2022 rematch by decision.
Pena was set to face Nunes in a trilogy bout at UFC 289, but an injury knocked the former champ from that scrap. Nunes defeated Pena's replacement, Irene Aldana, on that card and then retired.
When Pena returned to action it was at UFC 307 where she defeated then-champion Raquel Pennington via split decision. She makes her first defense of that belt at UFC 316.
MIAMI, FLORIDA - APRIL 11: Kayla Harrison is seen on stage during the UFC 316 press conference at ... More Kaseya Center on April 11, 2025 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC)
A two-time Olympic gold medal winner in judo (2012 and 2016), Kayla Harrison (18-1) made her MMA debut in the 155-pound division with PFL in 2018. Harrison ran over her first six opponents, picking up three submissions, two knockouts, and a decision before winning the women's lightweight title by defeating Larissa Pacheco by decision.
In November 2020, Harrison defeated Courtney King by TKO in a 145-pound scrap. Shen then moved back to 155 pounds. In 2021, Harrison won the PFL 155-pound tournament with a submission win over Taylor Guardado.
By 2022, Harrison had amassed a 15-0 record. However, her unbeaten ended in the finals of the 2022 PFL lightweight tourney when Pacheco scored a unanimous decision win over Harrison. The ex-champ fought once more for the PFL, beating former UFC fighter Aspen Ladd via decision in November 2023 in a 150-pound catchweight fight.
In January 2024, the UFC announced it had signed Harrison and that her promotional debut would take place in the 135-pound weight class. Harrison impressed in that performance, submitting former UFC women's bantamweight champion Holly Holm by submission in the second round at UFC 400.
In her next, and most recent, outing, Harrison defeated Ketlen Vieira via unanimous decision.
Harrison is the No. 2 ranked fighter in the official UFC women's 135-pound rankings.
MIAMI, FLORIDA - APRIL 11: Kayla Harrison is seen on stage during the UFC 316 press conference at ... More Kaseya Center on April 11, 2025 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)
When BetOnline first announced the opening odds for the Pena vs. Harrison matchup, the challenger was a whopping -700 betting favorite over the champ, who opened as the +525 betting underdog.
The betting line has shifted since then. Today, Pena is listed at +550, while Harrison comes in at -800.
MIAMI, FLORIDA - APRIL 11: Julianna Pena is seen on stage during the UFC 316 press conference at ... More Kaseya Center on April 11, 2025 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC)
Age: 35
Height: 5' 7'
Reach: 69'
Stance: Orthodox
Age: 34
Height: 5'8'
Reach: 66'
Stance: Southpaw
MIAMI, FLORIDA - APRIL 11: Kayla Harrison is seen on stage during the UFC 316 press conference at ... More Kaseya Center on April 11, 2025 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC)
Pena is a tough fighter, and that toughness will be tested on Saturday when she faces Harrison at UFC 316. The concern on the Harrison side of the equation is her ability to make 135 pounds and rehydrate and recover. The weight cut will be tough, there's no doubt about that, but Harrison has been a high-level athlete for a long while, and she knows her body and how far she can push herself. That's a plus in this matchup; it could also mean that she will pace herself against Pena so that she does not overextend herself and run out of gas.
Harrison is the better athlete and has more routes to victory than Pena. The betting pick is a Harrison win, either by late submission or decision. With the odds being what they are, the value pick is Pena to win via upset, but that's a wager that one should be careful in making.
We will have more on the UFC 316 Gastelum vs. Pyfer bout as fight night nears, as well as live results, reactions, highlights and more for the UFC 316 pay-per-view card on fight night.
