03-04-2025
2025 Hurricane season forecasted to be busier than average
NEW ORLEANS (WGNO) — Colorado State University has released its first forecast for the 2025 Hurricane Season. The predictions show an above-average season once again, with similar numbers to what we saw last year.
This is the first of multiple forecasts from the highly regarded CSU. An updated forecast will be released on June 11. Hurricane season begins on June 1.
Many factors go into predicting the number of storms we could see this year. For 2025, the early forecast calls for 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes. Last year we received 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes. Last year was also an above-average season in regard to tropical activity.
The CSU forecast is intended to provide a best estimate of activity in the Atlantic during theupcoming season – not an exact measure.
As always, the researchers caution coastal residents to take proper precautions. 'It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season for you,' said Michael Bell.
Multiple weather models are used to achieve this forecast. Meteorologists look back on nearly 40 years of historical hurricane season data and compare it to current trends around the globe to get a grasp on what conditions will most likely be like during the upcoming season. Researchers evaluate historical and current variables such as: Atlantic Sea surface temperatures, sea level pressures and vertical wind shear levels.
(ENSO), El Niño and the Southern Oscillation are always a big component in forecasting for tropical activity long term. We are anticipating a neutral pattern this season, or a turn towards La Niña.
Typically, during La Niña, Atlantic hurricane activity increases due to reduced wind shear and enhanced atmospheric instability. El Niño typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity due to stronger wind call for confirmation hearing for Trump DC prosecutor nominee
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