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Forbes
3 days ago
- Business
- Forbes
Lawrence Lepard Predicts 'The Big Print'
Although the Federal Reserve and other major central banks, even the Bank of Japan, are not today buying bonds or increasing the base money supply significantly, many people suspect that more overt financing of governments via the money-creation process may lie not too far ahead – what, in the past, often took the form of literally printing paper banknotes; although today, the process is likely to be more digital in character. One such person is Lawrence Lepard, author of The Big Print (2025). Lawrence Lepard's new book The Big Print Lawrence Lepard Just in recent weeks, Japan's government bond market has had a price breakdown of the sort not seen since, perhaps, the late 1970s. People have been predicting disaster there literally for decades; but perhaps now the time is upon us. Even the US Treasury market, although one of the better credits in the developed world, has had a notable trend toward weakness. Bond buyers can see that today's historically huge deficits – the Congressional Budget Office predicts 6%+ of GDP deficits basically forever – do not seem to have any upcoming resolution. Despite the heroic recent efforts of the Department of Government Efficiency, Congress has not yet found the will to cut its spending in any meaningful way, preferring instead minor tweaks. But, decades of minor tweaking, in lieu of significant reforms, are what brought us to this point in the first place. Lawrence Lepard is well qualified as a guide to this era. His history, first in the Venture Capital world in the 1980s, and later as a fund manager, has given him a front-row seat to the whole historical process. Most people don't have the time to follow these things very closely, or the expertise to judge them. About the best they can do is read certain business journalists. Fund managers have both the time (it's part of their job) and also the expertise, enough expertise to point out where the journalists are wrong, missing the main points, or, often, biased by certain interests. My favorite account of the crisis of 1907 was that of Jesse Livermore, one of the largest speculators of the time. Unfortunately for the rest of us, fund managers are often very busy, far too busy to write books. Ray Dalio, after his retirement from daily management of a large hedge fund, has benefited us with several insightful books. (His latest book, How Countries Go Broke, is due June 3.) I hope other fund managers also feel inspired. Lepard begins his story around the introduction of the Federal Reserve in 1913, which followed the introduction of similar monopoly central banks around the world in the late 19th century. Immediately afterward, with the outbreak of World War I, these central banks were pressed to help with war financing efforts, with the result that floating fiat currencies erupted across the global landscape. But things really took a turn for the worse in 1971, when a combination of abject incompetence, and also a spreading enthusiasm for using monetary distortion to attempt to manage the macroeconomy (President Nixon wanted to be re-elected in 1972), resulted in the outbreak of floating fiat currencies around the world again, even in the midst of peace, balanced budgets and unprecedented prosperity. There is a lot to tell along the way, taking things up through the Financial Crisis of 2008, and the Covid era of 2020. Lepard's expertise shows through, as his brief descriptions hit on the most important points and correct conclusions. The 2020 period, in which central banks around the world engaged in unprecedented monetary expansion, showed their increasing willingness to essentially 'run the printing presses' whenever things got tough. Unfortunately, along the way, they also showed Congress (and other governments worldwide) that no real discipline is needed, because every problem can ultimately be solved with the central bank printing press. The natural conclusion of such logic is a Big Print somewhere down the line here, and maybe not too far away. The fact of the matter is, debt/GDP ratios have become so high, throughout the developed world, that the 10%+ interest rates of the early 1980s are no longer tolerable. Even at 6%, with a 100% debt/GDP ratio, that implies 6%-of-GDP in debt service costs alone, on top of 'primary deficits' (perhaps 3%-4%) driven by unreformed 'mandatory spending' programs such as Medicare and Social Security. Either a decline in currency value, or 'monetary inflation' as we called it in our recent book Inflation, or even more direct purchases of government bonds by central banks, may become necessary to inflate away the existing debt, and finance continued deficits at tolerable rates. Unfortunately, coming this far, Lepard loses the plot entirely toward the end of the book, championing Bitcoin as some kind of improved 'Sound Money' system. It is not. The idea is that Bitcoin's supply is limited, so that wanton 'increases in the money supply' can't come about. This is true, but the reason why 'Sound Money' has always meant gold in the past, is because gold has been proven, over centuries of human experience, to be reliably stable in value. It's this stability of value that makes gold work so well as a basis for monetary systems. This error, mistaking 'stability of supply' for 'stability of value,' is an old one, going back at least to Milton Friedman's flawed proposals of the 1950s. Or, as I put it here more than a decade ago, 'Bitcoin Proves Milton Friedman's Big Plan Was A Joke.' Basically, Lepard is a bullish Bitcoin speculator. And, perhaps Bitcoin will rise in value, in coming years. It seems to be persistently popular. But it is this tendency to rise in value (or fall in value, dramatically, from time to time) that makes it unusable as a currency; and why it is not, today, used as a currency. If you want to see what a currency looks like, look at the US dollar stablecoin Tether (USDT). Since its value is linked to the dollar, we can be pretty sure that almost nobody is using it as a speculative vehicle. (Forex traders have better platforms, such as FXCM, to do their speculation on.) But, Tether has also had an enormous increase in popularity, with the number of outstanding Tether coins rising from $2 billion in 2019 to $153 billion today. It is popular because it works pretty well, as a kind of monetary alternative. Bitcoin and gold are not really competitors. They are completely different. If gold is a pretty good hammer, to hit the nail of Stable Currency Value, Bitcoin is not a better or worse hammer. It is more like a lemon meringue pie. But, if you are wondering why an experienced hedge fund manager might be bullish on Bitcoin today, Lepard will give you an excellent list of arguments. For now, gold-based stablecoins have not been very popular. They still look like Tether in 2019. Even Tether's own gold alternative, Tether Gold (XAUT), still has a sub-$1 billion market cap. But, since USDT Tether is linked to the US dollar, Tether's value would also fall, in some kind of 'Big Print' situation. Around that time, people might become more serious in their search for monetary alternatives that achieve the ideal of Stable Value. Neither Tether nor Bitcoin would qualify.
Yahoo
21-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Rich Dad Poor Dad author warns ‘the end is here'
Robert Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, posted an alarming warning on X on May 21, saying that "the end is here" after a U.S. Treasury bond auction that he said failed. Kiyosaki has been a big proponent of Bitcoin, which is only 2.22% away from reaching its all-time high, now trading at $106,663.73, as per Kraken's price page. Kiyosaki said the Federal Reserve was forced to buy $50 billion in bonds, which he called "fake money to buy fake money." On May 20, the Federal Reserve put out a $60 million auction claim, which will be issued on May 27, as per the Treasury offering news. Kiyosaki, in his typically blunt style, warned that this action is the beginning of hyperinflation, leading to a financial collapse that will decimate millions. "The party is over," he wrote, adding that both young and old will be "wiped out financially." However, Kiyosaki gave some hope to owners of hard assets, estimating that Bitcoin would soar to between $500,000 and $1 million, gold would hit $25,000, and silver would hit $70. This is not the first time the author has warned investors. On May 13, Kiyosaki encouraged Americans to move away from "fake money". He recommends that readers read The Big Print by gold bull Larry Lepard, based on the phrase that describes large-scale expansions in the money supply. While Kiyosaki's comments are frequently met with skepticism, late in 2022, his dire prospects exposed a burgeoning anxiety, especially among hard-money supporters, about increasing U.S. debt, central bank policy, escalating inflation, and the sea change coming in the fiat system. Interestingly, the Treasury Department has reported a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.97 for the auction. The total bid amount was $212.58 billion for a 42-day Treasury bill. Of that, $74.38 billion was accepted, and only $4.38 billion was awarded to the Federal Reserve System Open Market Account, as per reports. This means there is a strong demand for U.S. government debt - the opposite of Robert Kiyosaki's claims. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Time of India
01-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
An inevitable financial collapse? Rich Dad Poor Dad author Robert Kiyosaki reveals why he buys Gold, Silver and Bitcoin
Renowned financial educator and Rich Dad Poor Dad author Robert Kiyosaki has issued yet another cautionary alert to investors and the public. Kiyosaki, a longtime proponent of gold, silver, and Bitcoin as safeguards against what he describes as a "broken money system," highlighted several striking quotes from Lepard's book, indicating they hold similar perspectives. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Renowned financial educator and author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, Robert Kiyosaki , has sounded another warning bell for investors and citizens alike — this time drawing inspiration from Lawrence Lepard's latest book 'The Big Print', which he recently began who has long advocated for gold silver , and Bitcoin as protection against what he calls" a broken money system," shared several provocative quotes from Lepard's book, suggesting the two share a similar worldview."The system has been set up and controlled by a so-called elite group of financial (and government) people who don't care about you or your well-being," Kiyosaki quoted from Lepard's book. "They have tilted the game board in their favor."He pointed to the deepening wealth inequality and rising societal unrest, which Lepard attributes to fundamental flaws in the monetary system. "The system is broken because our money is broken," the book says — a view Kiyosaki has echoed for years in his writings and public quote particularly struck a chord: "What we now have is rugged capitalism for individuals… but socialism for the rich and powerful." According to Lepard, this imbalance gives undue power to the government and institutional elites, often resulting in poor policies — from bailouts to endless wars — that come at the cost of everyday like Kiyosaki, urges readers to turn to hard assets like gold, silver, and Bitcoin as shields against financial instability. The book draws on historical cycles — specifically The Fourth Turning, a bestselling book that highlights how societies go through repeated cycles of crisis and rebirth every 80 to this theory, we are now in the midst of a "fourth turning," similar to previous periods that sparked the American Revolution, the Civil War, and the Great Depression."All fourth turns culminate in a resolution that fundamentally reshapes the rules and structure of society," Lepard writes. Kiyosaki highlighted the urgency in his post, urging followers to "be prepared rather than join the panic."
Economic Times
01-05-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
An inevitable financial collapse? Rich Dad Poor Dad author Robert Kiyosaki reveals why he buys Gold, Silver and Bitcoin
Renowned financial educator and author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, Robert Kiyosaki, has sounded another warning bell for investors and citizens alike — this time drawing inspiration from Lawrence Lepard's latest book 'The Big Print', which he recently began reading. ADVERTISEMENT Kiyosaki, who has long advocated for gold, silver, and Bitcoin as protection against what he calls" a broken money system," shared several provocative quotes from Lepard's book, suggesting the two share a similar worldview. "The system has been set up and controlled by a so-called elite group of financial (and government) people who don't care about you or your well-being," Kiyosaki quoted from Lepard's book. "They have tilted the game board in their favor." He pointed to the deepening wealth inequality and rising societal unrest, which Lepard attributes to fundamental flaws in the monetary system. "The system is broken because our money is broken," the book says — a view Kiyosaki has echoed for years in his writings and public quote particularly struck a chord: "What we now have is rugged capitalism for individuals… but socialism for the rich and powerful." According to Lepard, this imbalance gives undue power to the government and institutional elites, often resulting in poor policies — from bailouts to endless wars — that come at the cost of everyday like Kiyosaki, urges readers to turn to hard assets like gold, silver, and Bitcoin as shields against financial instability. The book draws on historical cycles — specifically The Fourth Turning, a bestselling book that highlights how societies go through repeated cycles of crisis and rebirth every 80 years. ADVERTISEMENT According to this theory, we are now in the midst of a "fourth turning," similar to previous periods that sparked the American Revolution, the Civil War, and the Great Depression."All fourth turns culminate in a resolution that fundamentally reshapes the rules and structure of society," Lepard writes. Kiyosaki highlighted the urgency in his post, urging followers to "be prepared rather than join the panic." ADVERTISEMENT (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times) (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
