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Business Times
2 days ago
- Business
- Business Times
‘Vibecession' 101: Are we in a recession – or just feeling one?
[SINGAPORE] The economic numbers may seem alright. But talk to fresh grads struggling to find jobs, or young workers watching their spending, and the sentiment feels… off. Welcome to what economic commentator Kyla Scanlon calls a 'vibecession'. It's when the public feels like the economy is worse than the numbers say. It's not about gross domestic product (GDP). It's about rising costs, shaky job prospects, global uncertainty and social media timelines full of people doomposting about their finances. Online, this dissonance has taken on a life of its own, with the practice of calling everything a 'recession indicator' having become a meme catchphrase. Lady Gaga being back on the charts? The last time she served this hard, we had an economic recession, says this TikToker. People stealing forks and plates from a hawker centre? It's a recession indicator. Even Labubu hasn't been spared. 🍕 Pizzas, underwear and lipsticks I did some digging into this and – jokes aside – there may actually be some truth behind these tongue-in-cheek observations. A NEWSLETTER FOR YOU Friday, 3 pm Thrive Money, career and life hacks to help young adults stay ahead of the curve. Sign Up Sign Up Take the pepperoni price index, where higher sales of expensive frozen pizza could indicate that the economy isn't well. The idea is this: When people cut back on eating out, they don't buy cheaper food. They trade down from restaurants to the most bougie frozen pizza they can find. This played out in the US in 2009, during the Great Recession and during the pandemic, Business Insider reported. Alan Greenspan, the longest-serving US Federal Reserve chairman, famously tracked the sales of men's underwear, which is usually stable. However, on the few occasions when sales dipped, that meant that men were so strapped for cash they were deciding not to replace their underwear, he explained. Meanwhile, the so-called lipstick effect suggests that people splurge on small luxuries, like beauty products, when they can't afford bigger purchases. Michael Burry, the investor featured in The Big Short for famously predicting the 2008 crash, recently sold off nearly all of his stock holdings and doubled down on just one: Estée Lauder. There's the hemline index, which claims skirts get longer when times are hard. Or that upbeat, bubblegum pop songs tend to dominate the charts during economic downturns as listeners turn to escapism. 🔢 What do the numbers say? In the US, economic data is a bit mixed, with some indicators showing strength and others suggesting potential weakness. In the first quarter of 2025, real GDP growth was negative, indicating that the economy shrank from the previous quarter. It's worth noting that there's no official definition for what a recession is. You could say it's just vibes, though it's generally understood to be more than a few months of decline in economic activity. If we're talking about a technical recession, though, then that's defined as two consecutive quarters of decline in a country's real GDP, i.e. GDP that's been adjusted for inflation. If second-quarter results turn out negative, then the US would be in a technical recession. And when the US sneezes, the world catches a cold. Here in Singapore, official stats suggest that things aren't that bad. Singapore's economy avoided a technical recession in the second quarter, growing 1.4 per cent compared with the first quarter, when GDP contracted by 0.5 per cent. On a year-on-year basis, the economy grew by a better-than-expected 4.3 per cent. Inflation has also cooled. While there has been growing public attention on the employment struggles of fresh grads, Singapore's tariff taskforce said that things are actually improving. Based on a 'very preliminary' Ministry of Manpower study, the employment rate as at June 2025 for fresh grads was 51.9 per cent, marginally higher than the June 2024 rate of 47.9 per cent. ⚖️ Why the vibes matter While people often bring up recession indicators half-jokingly, they point to a growing sense that people are cutting back, changing financial habits or quietly bracing themselves for one. Even the official narratives are one of caution. Despite the surprisingly high Q2 GDP results, the Ministry of Trade and Industry continued to flag 'significant uncertainty and downside risks' from tariffs in the second half of the year. It didn't change its official forecast range of 0 per cent to 2 per cent, which was set shortly after America's 'Liberation Day' tariffs, though some economists are expecting the ministry to raise its forecasts soon. The Monetary Authority of Singapore has also warned that Singapore's GDP growth is likely to slow as it expects tariffs to drag down global economic activity. The sentiment is pretty clear. The numbers don't yet show it, but the caution, hesitation and general 'meh' mood is real. Kyla Scanlon's idea of a vibes recession isn't just a meme. It captures a significant disconnect between the economic recovery reported on paper and the real sense of unease being felt by people everywhere. And when enough people feel anxious, they can behave in ways that affect the actual economy. To some extent, that's already showing in Singapore. Businesses are more hesitant to hire and bracing for the impact of tariffs. Singaporeans are also tightening their belts when it comes to eating out. Globally, more people are heading back to school – which itself is another recession indicator. Whether or not a downturn is official, the fear of one can feed on itself and turn it into a self-fulfilling prophecy. For now, take these quirky indicators for what they are – a reflection of public sentiment, not hard economic science. How you feel about the economy isn't irrational. But it isn't always the full story. Or maybe the vibes just haven't translated into economic data – yet. Either way, the advice for preparing for uncertainty remains the same. If you've got a job, try to hold onto it and don't switch unless you have something else lined up. Avoid taking on bad debt. If you're job-hunting or freelancing, try to shore up an emergency fund and avoid big-ticket commitments. TL;DR
Sydney Morning Herald
3 days ago
- Entertainment
- Sydney Morning Herald
Is property investing ‘morally wrong'? Inside Mark Humphries' biggest project yet
'I don't want to get too much into the baby boomer stuff,' Humphries says when asked about the generational tensions at play. 'I know they feel like they're getting slammed all the time. But if your own children can't afford to live in the city that you're in, you lose out, too – emotionally, through a loss of family time, or financially, when they essentially come to you as a bank.' Though Humphries is well-known for his pointed political work, previously creating sketches for SBS The Feed and ABC's 7.30 (as well as most recently hosting 7News' axed weekly comedy segment The 6.57pm News), this is a rare longer work that allowed him to explore a topic in greater depth and a promising local commission from Binge. 'It's liberating to go beyond two-and-a-half minutes,' he says. Loading The documentary – led by director Bill Code (Al Jazeera, The Guardian) and co-written by him, Craig Reucassel (War on Waste), Humphries and long-time collaborator Evan Williams (7.30, The Feed) – is careful to point the finger at the system that created the crisis, rather than the people who benefit from it. But the stories of those suffering the consequences are what Humphries found most affecting. 'We're all aware of the difficulties that people are going through,' he said. 'But it's a different thing to actually sit down with them. When doing the proof-of-concept for this documentary, I spoke with a nurse who has to live an hour and a half away from the hospital. They would travel that long after doing a 12-hour shift. 'There's often this mentality of, 'You should get a better job and work harder.' But how does that work? What is a nurse – an essential worker – supposed to do differently? … If our nurses and teachers can't live in the city where they're supposed to work, then how does society work?' Other talking heads include rental advocate turned Victorian Socialists senate candidate Jordan van den Lamb, AKA @PurplePingers; former Labor leader Bill Shorten, briefly reflecting on his attempts to change housing tax policy; and ABC finance journalist Alan Kohler, explaining how those tax systems work while drinking champagne in a bath like Margot Robbie in The Big Short. Notably, he is fully clothed. 'I think if he were naked – and I say this with great love and respect for Alan, I'm sure that under that suit, he's a fine specimen – it would have distracted from the actual issues,' Humphries says. 'He was a very good sport.' But, as Kohler notes from his bathtub, when it comes for solutions to these issues 'there's no one silver bullet'. Loading 'The big mindset shift that we're pushing for in this documentary is just reiterating that a house is for housing people,' Humphries says. 'The idea that a house is an investment that should increase in value is not something we should be aspiring to.' 'I understand that sort of selfish urge to want your place to go up in value, but I'm not buying into that system. It's not good for society.' It's something the comedian has actually been thinking about a lot, long after filming. 'The great irony of this is that finally, at 39, I literally have this week moved into my first house,' he says, laughing. 'The timing is obviously not ideal for publicity. But this is something that I hoped I would have been able to do a decade ago. 'Of course, now that I've crossed that threshold, I'm now one of those people anxiously observing the interest rates and living under a different kind of tyranny ... I'm still just as outraged as I was a week ago.' Does he think fellow Australian home-owners will follow his lead, rejecting the pursuit of endless profit and putting pressure on politicians to create change? 'I'm hopeful, but not optimistic. I want to have hope!'
The Age
3 days ago
- Entertainment
- The Age
Is property investing ‘morally wrong'? Inside Mark Humphries' biggest project yet
'I don't want to get too much into the baby boomer stuff,' Humphries says when asked about the generational tensions at play. 'I know they feel like they're getting slammed all the time. But if your own children can't afford to live in the city that you're in, you lose out, too – emotionally, through a loss of family time, or financially, when they essentially come to you as a bank.' Though Humphries is well-known for his pointed political work, previously creating sketches for SBS The Feed and ABC's 7.30 (as well as most recently hosting 7News' axed weekly comedy segment The 6.57pm News), this is a rare longer work that allowed him to explore a topic in greater depth and a promising local commission from Binge. 'It's liberating to go beyond two-and-a-half minutes,' he says. Loading The documentary – led by director Bill Code (Al Jazeera, The Guardian) and co-written by him, Craig Reucassel (War on Waste), Humphries and long-time collaborator Evan Williams (7.30, The Feed) – is careful to point the finger at the system that created the crisis, rather than the people who benefit from it. But the stories of those suffering the consequences are what Humphries found most affecting. 'We're all aware of the difficulties that people are going through,' he said. 'But it's a different thing to actually sit down with them. When doing the proof-of-concept for this documentary, I spoke with a nurse who has to live an hour and a half away from the hospital. They would travel that long after doing a 12-hour shift. 'There's often this mentality of, 'You should get a better job and work harder.' But how does that work? What is a nurse – an essential worker – supposed to do differently? … If our nurses and teachers can't live in the city where they're supposed to work, then how does society work?' Other talking heads include rental advocate turned Victorian Socialists senate candidate Jordan van den Lamb, AKA @PurplePingers; former Labor leader Bill Shorten, briefly reflecting on his attempts to change housing tax policy; and ABC finance journalist Alan Kohler, explaining how those tax systems work while drinking champagne in a bath like Margot Robbie in The Big Short. Notably, he is fully clothed. 'I think if he were naked – and I say this with great love and respect for Alan, I'm sure that under that suit, he's a fine specimen – it would have distracted from the actual issues,' Humphries says. 'He was a very good sport.' But, as Kohler notes from his bathtub, when it comes for solutions to these issues 'there's no one silver bullet'. Loading 'The big mindset shift that we're pushing for in this documentary is just reiterating that a house is for housing people,' Humphries says. 'The idea that a house is an investment that should increase in value is not something we should be aspiring to.' 'I understand that sort of selfish urge to want your place to go up in value, but I'm not buying into that system. It's not good for society.' It's something the comedian has actually been thinking about a lot, long after filming. 'The great irony of this is that finally, at 39, I literally have this week moved into my first house,' he says, laughing. 'The timing is obviously not ideal for publicity. But this is something that I hoped I would have been able to do a decade ago. 'Of course, now that I've crossed that threshold, I'm now one of those people anxiously observing the interest rates and living under a different kind of tyranny ... I'm still just as outraged as I was a week ago.' Does he think fellow Australian home-owners will follow his lead, rejecting the pursuit of endless profit and putting pressure on politicians to create change? 'I'm hopeful, but not optimistic. I want to have hope!'
Business Insider
11-07-2025
- Business
- Business Insider
The riskiest corner of the bond market is pointing to continued strength of the US economy
Anyone worried about the US economy can look to an unexpected corner of the market for reassurance. High-yield bonds, issued by companies with below-investment-grade credit ratings, are flashing signs that investors don't see much trouble ahead for these companies. DataTrek Research this week flagged that high-yield bond spreads—essentially the yield paid to investors over a benchmark like Treasurys—are low. When spreads are wider, it suggests investors see more risk ahead and are demanding higher compensation to hold the bonds. Yet, even with the possibility of President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs raising inflation and negatively affecting the economy, high-yield bond investors are calm. "US High Yield corporate bond spreads are now lower than at any point in 2021. This risk-wary market is just as bullish on the American economy as stocks," DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas said. Colas noted that in 2021, markets were bullish on the prospects for the economy as the US began climbing out of the pandemic and households and companies were flush with stimulus cash. He compared the current strong performance of high-yield corporate debt to large-cap stocks, which are also riding a wave of bullish enthusiasm among investors. "Given that bond investors are a more cautious lot than their equity market counterparts, that is a bullish signal for stocks," he said. Elsewhere in the bond market, Treasury yields have edged up this week as Trump fired off a fresh salvo of tariff updates, most recently threatening Canada with 35% tariffs starting on August 1. Yet, some investors aren't worried. Steve Eisman, known for his role in "The Big Short," said this week that Treasury yields have been basically tranquil since 2022, indicating investors aren't worried about things like the deficit or mounting US debts.
Yahoo
11-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
'Big Short' investor Steve Eisman is begging people to stop worrying about the US debt
"Big Short" investor Steve Eisman wants people to stop fretting over the US debt. The 10-year US Treasury yield tells markets the situation is fine, he said. The famed investor said too many people were trying to look for the next "Big Short." Steve Eisman wants people to please stop talking about the US debt. "The Big Short" investor said he was tired of being asked about his outlook for the US debt, and that the budget deficit is probably fine . He said the noise now is probably from people who are trying to replicate the success of investors, including himself, who successfully bet against the housing market in 2008. "You know what I have to say about all this? Just stop. God's sake," Eisman said when asked about the US debt on CNBC this week. "I'm going to say this. Maybe it's a little too obnoxious, but I can't help myself. It's just so — how many times do I get this question? People want to be me. They want to predict the end of the world. And I have news for all of them. The position of Steve Eisman is taken." Eisman, who is best-known for betting against the housing market during the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, described himself as an optimist. Speaking on the budget deficit, he pointed to the 10-year US Treasury yield, which is the benchmark government bond. This embedded content is not available in your region. The 10-year yield has whipsawed this year amid concerns about President Donald Trump's tariffs and the GOP tax and spending bill, which is expected to add nearly $3 trillion to the deficit over the next decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office. But the yield has been mostly "directionless" when viewed since 2022, Eisman said. That's a sign that the market isn't seriously losing faith in the US fiscal position. "Again, I think the reason is there's no alternative to Treasurys. If there was a real alternative to Treasurys, then all this stuff about the deficit is something I would pay attention to. But because there's no alternative, there's nothing to talk about," Eisman added. Markets have paid close attention to the demand for US Treasurys, as weak demand could signal investors no longer view the bonds as safe-haven assets. But demand at recent Treasury auctions has mostly been strong, including for the latest 10-year Treasury auction on Wednesday. While he's most famous for his bearish call on the housing market leading up to 2008, Eisman has been more upbeat lately. In a previous interview, Eisman said he had de-risked some of his portfolio but remained bullish on markets over the long term, given tailwinds like AI. Read the original article on Business Insider
