30-01-2025
Groundhog Day 2025: How often is Punxsutawney Phil correct?
The Brief
Groundhog Day – we all know it and some even celebrate it, traveling to the quaint northwestern Pennsylvania town for the festivities.
Over the years, looking to Pennsylvania's most famous rodent to tell us when we can usher in spring has become a tradition. But, how often is he right?
PHILADELPHIA - As for Groundhog Day in Punxsutawney, it turns out it's an all-night celebration, not all day.
Thousands will descend on the sleepy northwestern Pennsylvania town February 2nd to find out whether winter will linger until the first day of spring or come to end sometime before March 20.
By the numbers
So, how well does Phil do? In short, not great. In the last decade, he was right 30 percent of the time. And, if you go back 20 years, he was right 40 percent of the time.
To judge Phil's accuracy, the FOX 29 Weather Authority compared Phil's national predictions to the temperatures that followed that February and March.
Looking at Philadelphia, Phil has the same record. Philadelphia's temperature forecast was correct only 40 percent of the time over 20 years.
In the last 10 years, he also got it right 40 percent of the time. That's a slight improvement over his national forecast.
Big picture view
For Phil to be more accurate, he needs to see his shadow more.
Seeing his shadow signals six weeks until spring. Of the last 20 years, 17 were warmer than average.
This year, the National Weather Service expects February and March to be warmer than average.
Phil's numbers
This is the breakdown of Phil's wins and losses:
2005 2007
2006 2010
2008 2011
2009 2013
2012 2014
2015 2016
2017 2020
2018 2024
2019
2021
2022
2023
What's next
So, will Phil see his shadow again like last year? Tune in for FOX 29's live coverage to find out what Phil has to say about the end of winter.
