Latest news with #TheDrillDown
Yahoo
23-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
The problem with Trump's call for Apple to make iPhones in the US
President Trump says Apple (AAPL), along with other smartphone makers like Samsung ( will have to pay a 25% tariff for every iPhone sold in the US that wasn't made domestically. Epistrophy Capital Research chief market strategist and host of "The Drill Down" podcast, Cory Johnson, joins Market Domination to discuss the dynamics that prevent Apple from making iPhones in the US. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination here. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
04-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Trump's tariff policy could be economic misconduct. Here's why.
Yahoo Finance Senior Columnist Rick Newman joins Market Domination Overtime with Yahoo Finance Head of News Myles Udland, RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas, and Epistrophy Capital Research chief market strategist and host of "The Drill Down" podcast Cory Johnson to make the case that Trump's tariffs constitute malpractice in the president's own metaphor that the US economy is the patient. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination Overtime here. Right, if a surgeon operates needlessly on a patient, it's medical malpractice. So if a policy maker destroys value, endangers livelihoods and lowers living standards is that economic malpractice? Joining us now to make the case is Yahoo finances, Rick Newman, Rick. It's economic malpractice on an unprecedented scale. Would like to say hello to Joe Barcelos there. How are you doing, man? Hey Rick, good to see you. This is this, so what President Trump said yesterday using this medical metaphor is one of the most idiotic and regrettable things that any president will ever say in American history. Just to remind people who might have missed it. Trump said referring to his tariffs, "The operation is over, the patient lived and is healing. The patient will be far stronger, better and more resilient than ever before." This is complete nonsense. So just to break this down, number one Trump says, the patient, the US economy was sick and in need of surgery. That is false. The US economy was doing well before Trump took office. Now it now it actually is sick because of Trump and the patient is not doing well. The patient is hemorrhaging. That is what is happening in markets and markets are only foretelling what is going to happen in the real economy. There is only one person in the world who doesn't realize what a disaster this is and that is Donald Trump. There might be a second person I, you could finger which is Peter Navarro, his trade advisor, and as you guys were discussing before, who might be the fall guy for this? If there's anybody I think it might be Peter Navarro uh who already went to prison once on Donald Trump's behalf and might uh take the pain again. We can only hope that that is what Trump does, that he finds a scapegoat and says this was all somebody else's idea. I'm calling the whole thing off because if he doesn't, as Joe and basically every other economist in the world knows, this is a nightmare. Rick uh you uh made the case of what the president, how the president has messed up, but he has made the case that we've been being ripped off by the terrorist. Other countries have been charging us uh and uh I don't know if you've made the case that every country out there that we are now charging terrorists too that the American consumers will be paying for, have been ripping us off. But isn't it the case that some countries have been ripping us off? I don't think so. Um I think some countries have been cheating on trade. I mean I think there are are a lot of people who would say yes, China cheats on trade uh it uses a government run economy to subsidize the big uh state-owned enterprises and other things like that. Yes, we we do have a problem with people and communities that used to rely on uh good paying manufacturing jobs that aren't there. But blowing up the whole economy is not the solution. Uh you know, to go back to the to the medical metaphor. Uh you don't, you don't operate on the entire body from head to toe to put, fix a pimple or something. I mean, address the problem in a targeted way and there are tons of ideas for how to address these problems in targeted ways. There are ways to crack down on Chinese cheating, other countries do it as well, um it's too too complicated to get into in one segment but to do you know there are many ways you can do that. Uh the places that we need better paying jobs for people in America who do not have college educations, there are also many ways to address that problem. We need more trades people. That is not assembly line workers making socks that we don't want to pay for in America. It is people, it's plumbers and welders that we need to do jobs that are good paying jobs. Many companies need skilled workers that they can't get enough of and they're trying to line up with local government and state governments and say here are the types of workers we need, can we get these people in the in the in the pipeline to get these skills? All these types of things. Do that kind of stuff. Why make everybody 25 or 30% poorer in order to bring back to bring back 100,000 auto maker jobs? This is this is insane. All right, so the late great Herb Stein used to tell us that if something bad goes on long enough, it usually comes to an end. How do we get out of this, Rick? What's what's what's the way forward? Well Joe, I mean you would be the one who could put numbers on this. Um if Trump were to reverse this quickly, we could get out of it without too much damage, but the longer this, these, these tariffs stay in effect, um the more this damage becomes irreversible. I mean you know to go back to the metaphor. Trump is not going to kill the patient, he can't kill the whole US economy. Um thank god. I mean the US economy will survive all of this in some form. Uh but we're going to survive with less. Well, I mean this is demand destruction and value destruction. You you don't just automatically get it back if it stays in place long enough. So um I don't know. I mean this this is a real test of um how responsive the political system actually can be when you when you have a man-made crisis on your hands, and much of this is unprecedented. I mean, Trump has figured out that um he has he doesn't have to answer to anybody on tariffs. He he he doesn't, he knows that he doesn't have to run for re-election unless he tries to, so he doesn't have to answer to voters in that way. So um we are in a predicament here uh and this all comes down to how hard headed is Trump actually going to be. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
04-04-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Homebuilder stocks gain as housing market braces for tariffs
Homebuilder stocks, including D.R. Horton (DHI), Lennar (LEN), PulteGroup (PHM), KB Home (KBH), and Toll Brothers (TOL), rise as the housing market prepares for the impact of Trump's new tariffs. National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) CEO Jim Tobin joins Market Domination with Yahoo Finance Head of News Myles Udland, RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas, and Epistrophy Capital Research chief market strategist and host of "The Drill Down" podcast Cory Johnson to discuss the current state of the homebuilding market. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination here. housing got a bit of a reprieve from Trump's sweeping new tariff agenda. Looking here at some of the best performers that we can find in the market today. DR Horton, Lennar, those stocks up among others. Several key building materials are exempt from facing further tariffs at this point in time. But markets under pressure, worries about the global economy. How's the housing outlook shaping up as we move into the teeth of the spring selling season? Joining us now to discuss is Jim Tobin, CEO of the National Association of Home Builders. So Jim, let's just start with what you and your members have been talking about through the, you know, kind of the whole tariff discussion, where we're at, rates, the whole situation on how you stand as we enter, I guess a grand new era for US trade policy. Yeah, a lot of uncertainty in trade policy. You know, in 2023, we used over $200 billion in building materials in this country and about 7% of that came from over our own borders. So trade policy is critically important. China, Canada, Mexico, in that order, are our largest building material trade partners, plus a lot of materials come from many other countries. So we are watching the tariff situation very carefully and working with the White House, talking to the White House about the uncertainty that we've created, not only in the macro economy, but also in the building material sector, which is critically important to building affordable housing in this country. All right. So I think that we're short about 3 million homes relative to demand and demographic change in the United States economy right now. Give me your quick elevator pitch on how we would fix that. Bill baby bill. It's pretty simple. The only way we are going to create a more housing affordability in this country is to build more housing. We've underbuilt since the Great Recession. This year, we're going to underbuild again. We're predicting about 1 million single family units this year, two to 300 multi-family units this year. We need to build about 1.5 to 1.6 million units, that's both single and multi-family, not only to meet household formation, immigration, and replacing older housing stock, the traditional drivers of building demand in this country. But then we've got to talk about that backlog that you cited. And the only way to do that is to get up to that trend line of one and a half to 1.6 million units. That's the only way we're going to do that. We need all levels of government to jump on board. We need to make sure that we can keep building material prices low. We need to extend the Trump tax cuts and we need a deregulatory environment that is really going to help reduce the regulatory burden on home creation in this country. So many questions. How about a science question? Want to talk about lumber. I think that there's a misunderstanding that we can replace Canadian lumber with trees and lumber that comes from the US. Can you talk to us about why Canadian lumber is particularly necessary for home construction in the US and why it's different than US lumber? We don't produce enough lumber in the United States to meet demand. We get about 30% of our lumber supply from over our shores and the bulk of it, about 70% of that 30%, comes from Canada. The species of wood that comes from Canada, specifically from their Northwest provinces, that is a preferred building material for studs and framing. That is, it is different than southern yellow pine, which is the predominant southeastern species of pine trees that we use. Now, we also have that particular Canadian species of lumber in our Pacific Northwest, but since the late 1990s, we have no longer cut and harvested timber off our national forests. In fact, in the late 1990s, we were pulling about 12 to 14 billion board feet off our national forests. Since then, we've treated our national forests like national parks. We've really slowed down timber production of our own domestic renewable resource on our forest service lands. Last year, we cut about two billion board feet. Guess where that delta of 10 billion board feet now comes from? Primarily Canada. So, while there is a preference for Canadian lumber, it's really a supply and demand issue. Until we cut enough and mill enough in the United States, we have to look over our own borders to meet demand for lumber in this country. And, you know, Jim, last question for you. I want to talk about the immigration situation and the labor constraints that we've also seen in the housing market over the last, you know, years now. But sort of, what's that dynamic been like this year with some of the administration's new policies? And how your members are thinking about that constraint as well, with this potential, you know, with this built-in demand backlog as Joe was talking about. Yeah, the construction industry continues to have a persistent labor shortage, about 200 to 300,000 jobs every month for the better part of a decade. We're just not bringing the next generation of men and women to work in the trades and train them in this country, whether it's starting in grammar school and high school, and moving through the trade schools after high school. So again, we've got to look at immigrant labor. About a third of the trades is immigrant labor right now. So when you talk about an immigration policy that is very constrictive, it is going to hurt our industry particularly hard. So we are watching that very closely as well. Of course, we believe in securing our borders and providing a pathway for people to come into this country to work in the construction industry. But right now, there is a lot of confusion in not only enforcement policy, but how are we going to bring people in? And that's only going to add to the cost of housing right now as well. All right, Jim Tobin, CEO of the NAHB. Thanks for the time. Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
21-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Focusing on tariffs 'misses the point,' this strategist says
BNP Paribas Asset Management chief market strategist Daniel Morris tells Julie Hyman and Josh Lipton, joined by Epistrophy Capital Research chief market strategist and The Drill Down podcast host Cory Johnson, that focusing only on tariffs "misses the point," highlighting that the market (^DJI, ^IXIC, ^GSPC) expects a soft landing for the economy in 2025. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination here. Well markets point to muted action after another volatile week on Wall Street, and our next guest says the economy's soft landing is what's really behind the weakness so far this year. Joining us now is Daniel Morris, BNP Asset Management Chief Market Strategist, and with us for the hour, of course the one and only, Corey Johnson, Pistrophy Capital Chief Market Strategist and host of the Drill Down podcast. Welcome to you both. Uh, Dan, uh start with you here on the markets and I thought, Dan, your comments are interesting, you look at the market action this year, Dan, and you say, in your opinion, this has really been about much more about the macro, it's about the slowing growth more than the tariffs, Dan. Walk us through that, 'cause we can't tell you we had a lot of strategists on really the word so far we hear over and over again point, you know, focus, the attention has been on tariffs. Why do you say that? Well I think that misses a point, and that's important, because if you're not analyzing what's really going on in the market currently I think you then miss what might come next. So think back to what we thought was going to be the outlook for 2025 before the election, and the word we kept repeating over and over of course was "soft landing." Uh, so that meant growth was supposed to slow. Uh, inflation then would come back down towards target, and then the Fed cuts rates, and we were all gonna be quite happy. Now we perhaps got a bit distracted by what happened subsequently with the election, of course the markets are pricing in what it anticipated as pro-growth policies from Trump, but we've got to remember there's a sequencing effect here. Uh, if that happens, it's not going to be right away. You know, you need time for these things to filter through for the economy. Economy's going to continue doing essentially what it was going to do, and I think it's that soft landing that we anticipated. So, from that point of view, we shouldn't be surprised. That's what we thought was going to happen, and I think fundamentally that's the key thing that's behind the market. Of course, tariffs come on top of that, but the key point I think is the soft landing. But it is a softer landing than anticipated by many. I mean, you're looking at GDP forecast that a lot of places are revising lower, and many are attributing that to the sort of survey data that we've gotten, the weakening, sort of confidence, in part. Yeah, I guess I again kinda question the analysis that's going on there. So if we go back to the growth that we had at the end of last year, 2.8% if you look at core core GDP, and well above trend we expected that to go down, right? That's all part of that picture. Towards two-ish, let's say. So we're kind of going in that direction anyway. I think some of the numbers that you see in the calculations of the GDP now are a function of the surge in imports you had ahead of the tariffs, so that does have a mathematical impact on the GDP calculation. But if a lot of those imports just end up in inventories, you'll more or less see an offset in the GDP calculation when the figures come out. So I still think we're looking at a two-handle for GDP for the first quarter. We'll see. Not an economist. No predictions on what's going to come out.
