20-05-2025
The next wars will be silent—fought with semiconductors, software, invisible lines of code
Think tank RAND Corporation's study, The Future of Warfare 2030 , outlines how information warfare, AI, and automation will define conflicts ahead. Grey-zone operations are already intensifying, especially by nations such as China, Russia, and Iran that have mastered subversion without provocation. The report warns that the US must recalibrate its information capabilities. India must do that too.
The next wars will be silent—fought through semiconductors, software, and invisible lines of code. Quantum computing and cyber warfare will become central to national security. As American Senator Ben Sasse once remarked , the next wars will be fought with semiconductors. The warning is real. The global battlefield is shifting from terrain to terabytes, and the world must prepare now.
A tarrified-world is forcing economies to rethink strategies, allies, arsenal, next moves, and new deals. Simultaneously, geopolitical contests and technological disruption are changing the nature of warfare. Are wars limited to boots on the ground or missiles in the air? Far from it. The bigger threat is the grey-zone that typically lies between peace and full-scale war—a murky space where adversaries use coercive actions that are aggressive and destabilising, but fall short of open warfare. Grey-zone operations include cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, economic pressure, political manipulation, and proxy conflicts. These actions are often deniable, non-attributable, and below the threshold that would trigger a traditional military response.
Semiconductors are now weapons
The Joe Biden administration imposed sweeping export controls to curb China's access to advanced semiconductor technology. From restricting Nvidia's high-performance chip exports to enlisting allies such as the Netherlands and Japan—home to critical chip-making equipment—Washington has been cutting Beijing off from the world's most advanced chip capabilities. China, in turn, banned Micron chips from its key infrastructure projects, sparking a tech cold war. The message is loud and clear: semiconductors are now strategic weapons.
As the world becomes progressively digitised, cyber operations will play an increasing role in warfare. Control of the cyber domain will become central to domestic stability. The most extreme example is probably China, which monitors the content that its citizens can access and uses cybersurveillance for behaviour control. But all states are concerned about preventing the use of the cyber domain as a tool for foreign subversion. With cloud infrastructure holding vast amounts of sensitive data, cyber domains are now the first lines of attack. By 2030, cyber sabotage could be as damaging as a missile strike.
Global defence spending surged to a record $2.46 trillion in 2024, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies. Countries in Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and North Africa ramped up their military budgets, driven by confrontations like the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas conflict. But the arms race has expanded to include quantum systems, AI warfare, and next-gen cyber defences now.
India, with over 1.3 billion citizens online and a growing stack of digital public infrastructure, is both a tech powerhouse and a high-value target. Our reliance on imported semiconductors—many from adversarial regions—is a strategic weakness. In 2023-24, India imported $89.8 billion worth of electronic and telecom goods, with China accounting for nearly 44 per cent of that total. Even our most advanced software often runs on foreign-built, potentially vulnerable hardware.
Also read: With Operation Sindoor, India just taught the world how to quickly end war
India's next steps
First, we must aggressively invest in indigenous quantum research and build a robust semiconductor ecosystem. Our STEM talent is unparalleled; now we need infrastructure, capital, and policy support to match. The Rs 6,000 crore National Quantum Mission is a start, but we must move faster and go deeper.
Second, quantum-resilient encryption must become the standard across government, defence, finance, and critical communications. Once quantum computers mature, current encryption will be rendered obsolete. We cannot wait for a breach to react.
Third, quantum security must be woven into India's Digital Public Infrastructure. Aadhaar, Unified Payments Interface (UPI), DigiLocker, and India Stack are no longer just digital utilities—they are our digital assets. Protecting them means protecting the state.
The RAND report forecasts conflict flashpoints across Asia, Europe, and the Middle East by 2030. India, located at the heart of these regions, cannot afford strategic complacency. National security can no longer be viewed separately from technological sovereignty. The ability to defend our networks, build our own chips, and secure our data is as vital as the ability to defend our borders.
We have the minds. We now need the mission.
Dr Ajai Chowdhry is the co-founder of HCL, and chairman of both EPIC Foundation and the National Quantum Mission. A Padma Bhushan recipient, his X handle is @AjaiChowdhry. Views are personal.
(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)
