Latest news with #TheWrit
Yahoo
25-05-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Inside the NDP's last-ditch efforts to save Jagmeet Singh and his riding
In the dying days of the federal election campaign, senior New Democrats made a desperate, last-ditch attempt to save Jagmeet Singh's Burnaby, B.C., seat. Some say it was unwinnable. At least 20 staff from the party's Ottawa headquarters packed the leader's campaign plane just days before the April 28 election, hitching a ride to the West Coast with a mission to door-knock on his behalf. This was after a small team were sent to Burnaby Central earlier in that month. The cross-country venture was a waste of resources when the party was fighting for its life in other, closer races, according to three, frustrated sources within the party, who spoke to CBC News on condition they not be identified because they were not authorized to speak publicly. Singh placed a distant third in Burnaby Central, losing to Liberal Wade Chang by more than 12,000 votes. The party as a whole lost 17 of its 24 seats. But there were eight other incumbent ridings — where NDP candidates placed second and obtained a greater vote share than Singh — which, sources say, the party had a better chance of retaining. In the riding neighbouring Singh's, New Westminster Burnaby–Maillardville, incumbent MP Peter Julian lost by less than 2,000 votes, for example. Éric Grenier, the publisher of who also maintains CBC's Poll Tracker, also says the party made some bad decisions, and could have placed more effort on other seats like Winnipeg's Elmwood Transcona or Skeena–Bulkley Valley in B.C.'s north, which were also lost. "It is remarkable that the NDP, at the end of the campaign, when things are going as badly as they were, would have poured resources into a riding that should not have been in their top 15 targets in terms of trying to win to get official party status," Grenier said. It shows "a relatively significant misuse of the resources." Grenier says there was no chance that a "better ground game" would have overcome the 24-point gap between Singh and Chang. It is normal for parties to pour significant resources into a leader's riding if they are thought to be in trouble, because leaders can't door-knock in their ridings and run an effective national campaign simultaneously. Not deploying resources could also send the wrong optics that the party is not fully behind its leader. According to the Globe and Mail and the Toronto Star, Conservatives deployed a team of staffers in Pierre Poilievre's Ottawa-area riding of Carleton riding, which he lost. Jennifer Howard was in charge of the NDP's federal campaign. In an interview with CBC News, she did not dispute that staffers were sent to Burnaby Central, but also said she was "ruthless" with how the party allocated resources. The veteran NDP senior staffer said every effort was made to help in incumbent campaigns, and that Singh's riding did not receive special treatment. Protecting incumbents and battlegrounds On April 10, at NDP national campaign headquarters in Ottawa, staff were invited into a boardroom for what was described in a staff-wide email as an afternoon video screening. It was actually to watch a new political video featuring Singh. In the two-minute video, which was also posted on YouTube, Singh stands before a bronze statue of former party leader Jack Layton in Toronto. "Canada works best when there are enough New Democrats elected to stand up for you," Singh says. Three senior party and campaign officials — national campaign director Jennifer Howard, Singh's principal secretary Anne McGrath and NDP national director Lucy Watson — were there to walk staff through the new political message, which was a pivot from trying to form government, to merely electing as many NDPers as possible. That meant focusing on incumbent and battleground seats, say CBC's confidential sources, who were at the meeting. Those sources expected staff would be spread out across the country to such ridings, but they noticed a heavy concentration on Singh's seat, which surprised them. A handful of staff were sent to Burnaby Central. The party paid for most of the travel, accommodation and food expenses. After a few days of door-knocking and phone canvassing, the sources say it became clear that Singh would likely not win. One source said, at the doors, NDP supporters made it clear that they were flipping to the Liberals or Conservatives. Door-knockers log their interactions, and the data gets fed into the NDP campaign apparatus. Despite the dismal support, headquarters leadership doubled down and sent more staff to Burnaby. The three sources said that the NDP campaign headquarters was emptied on the weekend before election day, which all campaigns tend to do to get out the vote. But most of the NDP's staff, a full-court press of between 20 and 30, were flown to Burnaby in a last-ditch attempt to save Singh's riding. "I don't think it was wise to send all those resources," one source who was on the ground said. "I found myself confused." "It was confusing that we had 24 incumbent seats, but most of us were being sent to Burnaby." Another source, who worked in a non-B.C. battleground riding, says it seemed like a misuse of campaign resources, especially when other ridings could have used more help. "I was really shocked at how much they were spending literally on knocking on doors for people out there and paying for meals and hotels," the person said. All three sources told CBC News the trend is part of a leader-centric approach to campaigning, within all the parties, and which the NDP warned itself against in a debrief of its performance in the 2021 election. "The NDP is more than just Jagmeet," it says, criticizing that election's campaign. Avi Lewis, an NDP candidate who also lost his bid for Vancouver Central, warns against second-guessing campaign decisions in the dying days of the campaign. But Lewis he take issue with the growing concentration of power within the NDP. It was a trend, he said, that began under Layton. "It's too-much focused on a theory of political change that people are looking for one person to save us," he said. "In the wider time frame, I think that's toxic to politics." Grenier, at though, says the NDP's approach to save Singh's seat did not make sense because he probably would not have been able to remain as leader. It seems "a little bit too leader-focused," he said. "Regardless of whether his seat was won or not, he was probably going to be done as leader."
Yahoo
24-05-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Inside the NDP's last-ditch efforts to save Jagmeet Singh and his riding
In the dying days of the federal election campaign, senior New Democrats made a desperate, last-ditch attempt to save Jagmeet Singh's Burnaby, B.C., seat. Some say it was unwinnable. At least 20 staff from the party's Ottawa headquarters packed the leader's campaign plane just days before the April 28 election, hitching a ride to the West Coast with a mission to door-knock on his behalf. This was after a small team were sent to Burnaby Central earlier in that month. The cross-country venture was a waste of resources when the party was fighting for its life in other, closer races, according to three, frustrated sources within the party, who spoke to CBC News on condition they not be identified because they were not authorized to speak publicly. Singh placed a distant third in Burnaby Central, losing to Liberal Wade Chang by more than 12,000 votes. The party as a whole lost 17 of its 24 seats. But there were eight other incumbent ridings — where NDP candidates placed second and obtained a greater vote share than Singh — which, sources say, the party had a better chance of retaining. In the riding neighbouring Singh's, New Westminster Burnaby–Maillardville, incumbent MP Peter Julian lost by less than 2,000 votes, for example. Éric Grenier, the publisher of who also maintains CBC's Poll Tracker, also says the party made some bad decisions, and could have placed more effort on other seats like Winnipeg's Elmwood Transcona or Skeena–Bulkley Valley in B.C.'s north, which were also lost. "It is remarkable that the NDP, at the end of the campaign, when things are going as badly as they were, would have poured resources into a riding that should not have been in their top 15 targets in terms of trying to win to get official party status," Grenier said. It shows "a relatively significant misuse of the resources." Grenier says there was no chance that a "better ground game" would have overcome the 24-point gap between Singh and Chang. It is normal for parties to pour significant resources into a leader's riding if they are thought to be in trouble, because leaders can't door-knock in their ridings and run an effective national campaign simultaneously. Not deploying resources could also send the wrong optics that the party is not fully behind its leader. According to the Globe and Mail and the Toronto Star, Conservatives deployed a team of staffers in Pierre Poilievre's Ottawa-area riding of Carleton riding, which he lost. Jennifer Howard was in charge of the NDP's federal campaign. In an interview with CBC News, she did not dispute that staffers were sent to Burnaby Central, but also said she was "ruthless" with how the party allocated resources. The veteran NDP senior staffer said every effort was made to help in incumbent campaigns, and that Singh's riding did not receive special treatment. Protecting incumbents and battlegrounds On April 10, at NDP national campaign headquarters in Ottawa, staff were invited into a boardroom for what was described in a staff-wide email as an afternoon video screening. It was actually to watch a new political video featuring Singh. In the two-minute video, which was also posted on YouTube, Singh stands before a bronze statue of former party leader Jack Layton in Toronto. "Canada works best when there are enough New Democrats elected to stand up for you," Singh says. Three senior party and campaign officials — national campaign director Jennifer Howard, Singh's principal secretary Anne McGrath and NDP national director Lucy Watson — were there to walk staff through the new political message, which was a pivot from trying to form government, to merely electing as many NDPers as possible. That meant focusing on incumbent and battleground seats, say CBC's confidential sources, who were at the meeting. Those sources expected staff would be spread out across the country to such ridings, but they noticed a heavy concentration on Singh's seat, which surprised them. A handful of staff were sent to Burnaby Central. The party paid for most of the travel, accommodation and food expenses. After a few days of door-knocking and phone canvassing, the sources say it became clear that Singh would likely not win. One source said, at the doors, NDP supporters made it clear that they were flipping to the Liberals or Conservatives. Door-knockers log their interactions, and the data gets fed into the NDP campaign apparatus. Despite the dismal support, headquarters leadership doubled down and sent more staff to Burnaby. The three sources said that the NDP campaign headquarters was emptied on the weekend before election day, which all campaigns tend to do to get out the vote. But most of the NDP's staff, a full-court press of between 20 and 30, were flown to Burnaby in a last-ditch attempt to save Singh's riding. "I don't think it was wise to send all those resources," one source who was on the ground said. "I found myself confused." "It was confusing that we had 24 incumbent seats, but most of us were being sent to Burnaby." Another source, who worked in a non-B.C. battleground riding, says it seemed like a misuse of campaign resources, especially when other ridings could have used more help. "I was really shocked at how much they were spending literally on knocking on doors for people out there and paying for meals and hotels," the person said. All three sources told CBC News the trend is part of a leader-centric approach to campaigning, within all the parties, and which the NDP warned itself against in a debrief of its performance in the 2021 election. "The NDP is more than just Jagmeet," it says, criticizing that election's campaign. Avi Lewis, an NDP candidate who also lost his bid for Vancouver Central, warns against second-guessing campaign decisions in the dying days of the campaign. But Lewis he take issue with the growing concentration of power within the NDP. It was a trend, he said, that began under Layton. "It's too-much focused on a theory of political change that people are looking for one person to save us," he said. "In the wider time frame, I think that's toxic to politics." Grenier, at though, says the NDP's approach to save Singh's seat did not make sense because he probably would not have been able to remain as leader. It seems "a little bit too leader-focused," he said. "Regardless of whether his seat was won or not, he was probably going to be done as leader."
CBC
24-05-2025
- Politics
- CBC
Inside the NDP's last-ditch efforts to save Jagmeet Singh and his riding
In the dying days of the federal election campaign, senior New Democrats made a desperate, last-ditch attempt to save Jagmeet Singh's Burnaby, B.C., seat. Some say it was unwinnable. At least 20 staff from the party's Ottawa headquarters packed the leader's campaign plane just days before the April 28 election, hitching a ride to the West Coast with a mission to door-knock on his behalf. This was after a small team were sent to Burnaby Central earlier in that month. The cross-country venture was a waste of resources when the party was fighting for its life in other, closer races, according to three, frustrated sources within the party, who spoke to CBC News on condition they not be identified because they were not authorized to speak publicly. Singh placed a distant third in Burnaby Central, losing to Liberal Wade Chang by more than 12,000 votes. The party as a whole lost 17 of its 24 seats. But there were eight other incumbent ridings — where NDP candidates placed second and obtained a greater vote share than Singh — which, sources say, the party had a better chance of retaining. In the riding neighbouring Singh's, New Westminster Burnaby–Maillardville, incumbent MP Peter Julian lost by less than 2,000 votes, for example. Éric Grenier, the publisher of who also maintains CBC's Poll Tracker, also says the party made some bad decisions, and could have placed more effort on other seats like Winnipeg's Elmwood Transcona or Skeena–Bulkley Valley in B.C.'s north, which were also lost. "It is remarkable that the NDP, at the end of the campaign, when things are going as badly as they were, would have poured resources into a riding that should not have been in their top 15 targets in terms of trying to win to get official party status," Grenier said. It shows "a relatively significant misuse of the resources." Grenier says there was no chance that a "better ground game" would have overcome the 24-point gap between Singh and Chang. It is normal for parties to pour significant resources into a leader's riding if they are thought to be in trouble, because leaders can't door-knock in their ridings and run an effective national campaign simultaneously. Not deploying resources could also send the wrong optics that the party is not fully behind its leader. According to the Globe and Mail and the Toronto Star, Conservatives deployed a team of staffers in Pierre Poilievre's Ottawa-area riding of Carleton riding, which he lost. Jennifer Howard was in charge of the NDP's federal campaign. In an interview with CBC News, she did not dispute that staffers were sent to Burnaby Central, but also said she was "ruthless" with how the party allocated resources. The veteran NDP senior staffer said every effort was made to help in incumbent campaigns, and that Singh's riding did not receive special treatment. Protecting incumbents and battlegrounds On April 10, at NDP national campaign headquarters in Ottawa, staff were invited into a boardroom for what was described in a staff-wide email as an afternoon video screening. It was actually to watch a new political video featuring Singh. In the two-minute video, which was also posted on YouTube, Singh stands before a bronze statue of former party leader Jack Layton in Toronto. "Canada works best when there are enough New Democrats elected to stand up for you," Singh says. Three senior party and campaign officials — national campaign director Jennifer Howard, Singh's principal secretary Anne McGrath and NDP national director Lucy Watson — were there to walk staff through the new political message, which was a pivot from trying to form government, to merely electing as many NDPers as possible. That meant focusing on incumbent and battleground seats, say CBC's confidential sources, who were at the meeting. Those sources expected staff would be spread out across the country to such ridings, but they noticed a heavy concentration on Singh's seat, which surprised them. A handful of staff were sent to Burnaby Central. The party paid for most of the travel, accommodation and food expenses. After a few days of door-knocking and phone canvassing, the sources say it became clear that Singh would likely not win. One source said, at the doors, NDP supporters made it clear that they were flipping to the Liberals or Conservatives. Door-knockers log their interactions, and the data gets fed into the NDP campaign apparatus. Despite the dismal support, headquarters leadership doubled down and sent more staff to Burnaby. The three sources said that the NDP campaign headquarters was emptied on the weekend before election day, which all campaigns tend to do to get out the vote. But most of the NDP's staff, a full-court press of between 20 and 30, were flown to Burnaby in a last-ditch attempt to save Singh's riding. "I don't think it was wise to send all those resources," one source who was on the ground said. "I found myself confused." "It was confusing that we had 24 incumbent seats, but most of us were being sent to Burnaby." Another source, who worked in a non-B.C. battleground riding, says it seemed like a misuse of campaign resources, especially when other ridings could have used more help. "I was really shocked at how much they were spending literally on knocking on doors for people out there and paying for meals and hotels," the person said. All three sources told CBC News the trend is part of a leader-centric approach to campaigning, within all the parties, and which the NDP warned itself against in a debrief of its performance in the 2021 election. "The NDP is more than just Jagmeet," it says, criticizing that election's campaign. Avi Lewis, an NDP candidate who also lost his bid for Vancouver Central, warns against second-guessing campaign decisions in the dying days of the campaign. But Lewis he take issue with the growing concentration of power within the NDP. It was a trend, he said, that began under Layton. "It's too-much focused on a theory of political change that people are looking for one person to save us," he said. "In the wider time frame, I think that's toxic to politics." Grenier, at though, says the NDP's approach to save Singh's seat did not make sense because he probably would not have been able to remain as leader. It seems "a little bit too leader-focused," he said. "Regardless of whether his seat was won or not, he was probably going to be done as leader."
Yahoo
27-02-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Federal polls showing a rare, rapid shift — but unclear if numbers will hold
Recent federal polls have shown a dramatic shift in Canadians' voting preferences, but analysts say there is no guarantee it's a lasting trend. CBC's Poll Tracker has clocked a massive Conservative lead for the better part of the last two years. But survey results from the past few weeks suggest that lead is quickly evaporating. An Ipsos poll conducted between Feb. 21 and 24 has the Liberals ahead of the Conservatives among decided voters — though the two-point spread falls well within the 3.8 per cent margin of error. Still, it's the first time Ipsos has shown the Liberals in the lead in years, erasing a 26-point Conservative lead that the firm tracked six weeks ago. "Right now, we have a steep curve in favour of the Liberals, the steepest I have seen in my years covering the polls in Canada," said Philippe Fournier, an analyst with Fournier said the rapid gains the Liberals have made can be attributed to three factors: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announcing he would be stepping down, interest in the party's leadership race and the return of U.S. President Donald Trump. Earlier this year, CBC's Poll Tracker suggested a Conservative victory was all but certain. While the tracker still calculates a Conservative win as the most likely outcome if an election were held today, it now shows a narrow window of opportunity for the Liberals to come out on top. "It's a very dramatic shift and really not something you often see. You rarely even see it in election campaigns. So to see it outside of an election campaign it's pretty surprising," Éric Grenier, a polls analyst with The Writ who runs CBC's Poll Tracker, said. Some polls have factored in the possibility of a new Liberal leader. A Leger survey conducted between Feb. 21 and 23 suggested that Liberal support with Trudeau still in charge has the Liberals trailing the Conservatives. But with the possibility of former central banker Mark Carney at the helm, the Liberals jump ahead of the Tories by two percentage points — though that still falls within the margin of error. Liberal leadership candidate Mark Carney speaks with Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre before a ceremony at the National Holocaust Monument in January. Recent polls suggest a Liberal Party led by Carney would be in a dead heat with Poilievre's Conservatives. (Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press) Grenier suggested that even the Liberal brand under Trudeau has regained some support due to Trump's tariff threats and talk of making Canada the 51st state. "There is a rally around the flag effect I think taking place here. The Liberals are benefiting from Donald Trump's attacks on Canada … even if you still mentioned Justin Trudeau, the Liberals are doing far better than they've done in the last year and a half," he said. While Liberals might be feeling reinvigorated by the latest numbers, the NDP's fortunes appear to be the opposite. The rebound of the Liberals appears to be in part due to the waning favourability of Jagmeet Singh's New Democrats. "It really has put the NDP in a tough place, because clearly the NDP is not making any gains … and so perhaps what we're seeing is strategic voting on steroids," Fournier said. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh's poll numbers are dropping off, largely to the benefit of the Liberals. (Christinne Muschi/The Canadian Press) Asked about his party's polling numbers during a news conference on Wednesday, Singh argued he was the best choice for voters worried about social services like health care. "If you want someone that's going to defend you and your family, that's us. That's my team behind me," Singh told reporters. But Grenier said the party still has a lot of ground to make up if they want to regain the support they've lost. "They've really lost almost half of their voters and they're in serious, serious trouble," Grenier said. Fortunes can turn quickly Ipsos's latest poll doesn't account for undecided voters, while Leger's most recent survey found 10 per cent of Canadians were unsure who they'd support. Even though that number might seem high, Fournier said he wouldn't put too much weight on undecided voters being a factor in an election because they generally don't vote or end up falling in line with the decided voter trends. Grenier pointed to two past instances where an unpopular governing party had a surge in the polls when they elected a new leader: the Progressive Conservatives under Kim Campbell in 1993 and the Liberals under John Turner in 1984. Both lost in the subsequent general elections. "There was a balloon, a honeymoon, for the new leader and then it subsequently popped and they ended up having disastrous results," Grenier said. Both Fournier and Grenier said that Turner and Campbell ran poor campaigns which ultimately led to their support dropping. They said what happens with the current trends will depend on the next campaign — which could be as early as this spring. "Could the Liberals still blow this? Oh, absolutely they could," Fournier said. "A bad interview, a stupid comment here or there and then it could revert back. This is very soft support that is returning to the Liberals." There have been instances where a new leader has been able help their parties get re-elected, such as Pierre Trudeau in 1968. Former Ontario premier Kathleen Wynne and former B.C. premier Christy Clark also did it at the provincial level in 2014 and 2013, respectively. "Maybe [the Liberals] can sustain these numbers, but it is such a dramatic and new shift in support that it can't be very solid," Grenier said. "The sun rises and the sun sets and what's been a very positive few weeks for them could suddenly become a very negative few weeks again." Fournier said where things go from here is difficult to predict. "I wish I could put my fist in the air [and] say, 'I know what's going to happen.' But I really don't," he said.
CBC
27-02-2025
- Business
- CBC
Why Trump's tariff threat dominated Ontario's election and left Ford's foes struggling
Social Sharing If Ontario Progressive Conservative Leader Doug Ford scores a major electoral victory tonight, it will likely vindicate a strategy that centred the election campaign on U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff threat while overshadowing other key provincial issues, some analysts say. "Tariffs and Trump is such a specific, top-of-mind issue," said Éric Grenier, a polls and elections analyst who writes The Writ newsletter. "For PCs, every poll shows that they're way ahead on that issue." Polls indicate that Ford, whose campaign sold him as the only provincial leader who can protect Ontarians from the threat of U.S. tariffs imposed on Canadian goods, could be heading for an historic third majority win tonight. Before the election was called, the PCs held 82 seats in the Ontario Legislature, followed by the NDP with 30, the Liberals with nine, Greens with two and one independent. LIVE | Ontario Votes 2025: Join our special broadcast for live results and analysis: Ontario Votes 2025: Join our special broadcast for live results and analysis Live in 16 hours Ontarians have cast their ballots on Thursday, Feb. 27 and now it's time to see who will form the next government at Queen's Park. We'll bring you all of the results plus analysis from our CBC News team from 9 to 11 p.m. ET. Ford triggered the snap election saying he needed a new mandate to deal with Trump's threatened tariffs — 25 per cent tariffs on goods and 10 per cent tariffs on energy. And he has since taken on a so-called "Captain Canada" mantle, becoming the unofficial advocate for not just the province, but the country. He has travelled to Washington and appeared in U.S. media to make the case against tariffs. This immediate tariff threat meant that Ford benefited from the fact that the bulk of issues that consume Ontario's legislative focus and its budget — health care, education, housing and social services — never ended up being as central during the election campaign, according to Elizabeth Goodyear-Grant, a political science professor at Queen's University in Kingston, Ont. 'Behemoth to the south' More importantly, the opposition party leaders were unable to make the problems within the health care or education systems stick to him, she said "There's a lot of ammo here for the opposition parties to have really gone hard on for his record," Goodyear-Grant said. "How do you make that land when you have this behemoth to the south?" Even when Trump implemented a 30-day tariff pause, the issue never really went away, she said. "There was never not rhetoric from from Trump and his administration during the tariff pause that would have caused Ontarians or Canadians broadly to relax," Goodyear-Grant said. The threat of tariffs, was "so much in your face" that it gave Ford a much-needed focus of his campaign, Grenier said. "Anytime you turn on the news, Trump's there. It reminds people that Trump is an issue for the Ontario election. I think that's why it has dominated focus so much." Meanwhile, other issues just didn't break through in this election because the tariff message and the underlying economic uncertainty in the province "is at the core of every voter's awareness," said Andrea Lawlor, an associate professor of political science at McMaster University in Hamilton. Much of the PC party's platform includes economically driven commentary on Ontario's potential for growth and employment trends, particularly as it relates to the potential impact of tariffs, she said. The platform also includes recommendations of what Ontario will be advising the federal government to do in terms of recouping money from counter-tariffs. "We see in their platform they have put tariffs first and they have made tariffs central to their message," Lawlor said. However that message is not front and centre with the opposition parties, she said. " And to the extent that they are, it's how tariffs could affect other areas of social policy. It's not dealing with tariffs square on," she said. WATCH | Comparing the promises of Ontario's 4 main party leaders in 4 minutes: Comparing the promises of Ontario's 4 main party leaders in 4 minutes 3 days ago Duration 3:59 Before casting your ballot on Feb. 27, it's important to know how the four major party leaders compare on hot-button issues. CBC's Julia Knope breaks down some of their key promises. Grenier says that issues like cost of living and health care were still considered priorities for Ontarians but none, on their own, really became a ballot-box issue this election. Many voters tied cost of living, a pocketbook issue, to tariffs, and trusted the PCs best to deal with it, according to Grenier. As for health care, the Liberals may have penetrated a bit on that issue, but polling suggested that voters didn't think Ford's government did such a bad job, Grenier said. And while voters may see the health-care system as troubled, people may not automatically vote for a different party because of it, Grenier said 'Lack of faith' "I think there's a lack of faith that any of the parties, after decades, are really going to be all that much more able to solve it than anybody else," Grenier said. "Had this campaign been a campaign really about nothing, then the PCs might have found that by the end of it, they might have started to run up against some of the baggage from the last few years," Grenier said. "And I think [tariffs] gave them an issue. It gave them focus for the campaign. And and in the end it looks like it's going to it's going to work out fine."
