2 days ago
- Politics
- The Herald Scotland
How Scottish Labour's ground war delivered victory in key by-election
It was never a simple two-horse race between the SNP and Reform, despite claims by both those parties which were accepted at face value by too many observers.
Labour may have lost the 'air war', but in an era when the perceived wisdom is that elections are now digital battles, Anas Sarwar's team proved that a well-oiled, old-fashioned door-to-door campaign still matters.
An STV debate – which Labour's candidate Davy Russell ducked – would have been a colossal waste of time. It would have taken the candidate, senior MSPs, and the backroom team away from the streets for days to prep.
What mattered was holding as many local conversations as possible.
So while the media gaze was seen through a national prism, Scottish Labour gathered data on what its target voters were interested in.
During the campaign, around 500 pieces of local casework were picked up, providing valuable insight on what to focus on.
The decline of Hamilton town centre and the future of the neonatal unit at University Hospital Wishaw were identified as key triggers for voters.
As polling day approached, seasoned activists focused on squeezing every voter they could before time ran out.
In the 2023 Westminster by-election in neighbouring Rutherglen, these conversations were quick. This time, they were far longer. There was anger towards Keir Starmer's government and what is seen as an unfulfilled promise of 'change'.
But widespread dissatisfaction, too, with the SNP's long record in office and the state of public services.
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The result hinged on how many of these conversations would take place before polling day.
And thanks to an army of activists – outnumbering their rivals – and extensive data, 7,000 target voters were spoken to on Thursday alone in a co-ordinated 'get out the vote' (GOTV) strategy.
Since becoming leader in 2021, Sarwar has built a backroom team that knows how to analyse data, run co-ordinated campaigns, and spend money effectively. Party 'organisers', as they are called, got Labour over the line.
They were helped too by a candidate who was popular locally, despite the dismissive comments by those who dubbed him the 'invisible man' or snobbishly suggested he couldn't 'string a sentence together'.
Being recognised in the bowling clubs and pubs mattered far more than taking part in a radio interview.
Known for crooning Frank Sinatra songs, Russell should add Ol' Blue Eyes' version of 'They All Laughed' to his repertoire – which ends with the lyric 'who's got the last laugh now?'
Scottish Labour's effective ground campaign wasn't matched by the other parties.
Alan Roden (Image: Greg Macvean) The SNP has lost some of its highly respected election-winning backroom team, and the visibility of so many ministers in the constituency was a clear sign of a shortage among rank-and-file activists.
However, the party did run a successful air war, with Katy Louden a polished performer in front of the media.
John Swinney's team crafted a narrative that it was a two-horse race with Reform, and – with no local polling to say otherwise – the message landed in the media. Will such claims be so readily accepted again?
Reform had little ground campaign to speak of, and scant data on its target voters.
It threw everything at the wall to see what would stick, which was enough to come within 1,500 votes of victory.
South of the border, in May's Runcorn and Helsby by-election, Reform gathered voter ID through a local petition. It is bound to adopt these kind of smart tactics as its operation grows and professionalises in Scotland.
Reform must now be treated as a serious force in Scottish politics, adding to the complex dynamic and uncertainty of next year's Holyrood election.
As Sarwar said yesterday, it's time for everyone to 'change the script'.
Alan Roden is co-founder of Quantum Communications and a former director of communications for Scottish Labour
