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CNN
2 days ago
- Politics
- CNN
How the US could be vulnerable to the same kind of drone swarm attack Ukraine unleashed on Russia's bomber fleet
Ukraine's shock drone strike on Russia's strategic bomber fleet this week has generals and analysts taking a new look at threats to high-value United States aircraft at bases in the homeland and abroad – and the situation is worrisome. 'It's an eyebrow-raising moment,' Gen. David Allvin, the US Air Force chief of staff, said at a defense conference in Washington on Tuesday, adding that the US is vulnerable to similar attacks. 'There is no sanctuary even in the US homeland – particularly given that our bases back home are essentially completely unhardened,' Thomas Shugart, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), told CNN. By 'unhardened,' Shugart means there aren't enough shelters in which US warplanes can be parked that are tough enough to protect them from airstrikes, be it from drones or missiles. Ukrainian military officials said 41 Russian aircraft were hit in last Sunday's attacks, including strategic bombers and surveillance planes, with some destroyed and others damaged. Later analysis shows at least 12 planes destroyed or damaged, and reviews of satellite imagery were continuing. The Ukrainian operation used drones smuggled into Russian territory, hidden in wooden mobile houses atop trucks and driven close to four Russian air bases, according to Ukrainian sources. Once near the bases, the roofs of the mobile houses were remotely opened, and the drones deployed to launch their strikes. The Russian planes were sitting uncovered on the tarmac at the bases, much as US warplanes are at facilities at home and abroad. 'We are pretty vulnerable,' retired US Army Gen. Stanley McChrystal told CNN's Anderson Cooper on Tuesday. 'We've got a lot of high-value assets that are extraordinarily expensive,' McChrystal said. The Ukrainians said their attacks destroyed $7 billion worth of Russian aircraft. By comparison, a single US Air Force B-2 bomber costs $2 billion. And the US has only 20 of them. Shugart co-authored a report for the Hudson Institute in January highlighting the threat to US military installations from China in the event of any conflict between the superpowers. 'People's Liberation Army (PLA) strike forces of aircraft, ground-based missile launchers, surface and subsurface vessels, and special forces can attack US aircraft and their supporting systems at airfields globally, including in the continental United States,' Shugart and fellow author Timothy Walton wrote. War game simulations and analyses show 'the overwhelming majority of US aircraft losses would likely occur on the ground at airfields (and that the losses could be ruinous),' Shugart and Walton wrote. A report from Air and Space Forces magazine last year pointed out that Anderson Air Force Base on the Pacific island of Guam – perhaps the US' most important air facility in the Pacific – which has hosted rotations of those $2 billion B-2 bombers, as well as B-1 and B-52 bombers, has no hardened shelters. Allvin, the USAF chief of staff, admitted the problem on Tuesday. 'Right now, I don't think it's where we need to be,' Allvin told a conference of the CNAS. McChrystal said the US must look at how to protect its bases and the aircraft on them but also how it monitors the areas around those facilities. 'It widens the spectrum of the threats you've got to deal with,' McChrystal said. But all that costs money, and Allvin said that presents the US with a budget dilemma. Does it spend defense dollars on hardened shelters and ways to stop drones and missiles from attacking US bases, or does it use more resources on offensive weapons that take the fight to the enemy? 'If all we are doing is playing defense and can't shoot back, then that's not a good use of our money,' Allvin told the CNAS conference. 'We've always known that hardening our bases is something we needed to do,' Allvin said, but other items have been given budget priority. Hardened aircraft shelters aren't flashy and are unlikely to generate the headlines of other defense projects, including planes like the new B-21 bombers, each of which is expected to cost around $700 million. And US President Donald Trump said recently the Air Force will build a new stealth fighter, the F-47, with an initial cost of $300 million per aircraft. 'The F-47 is an amazing aircraft, but it's going to die on the ground if we don't protect it,' Allvin said. Meanwhile, a hardened shelter costs around $30 million, according to Shugart and Walton. Last month Trump revealed another form of air defense for the US mainland, the Golden Dome missile shield, expected to cost at least $175 billion. Despite the huge price tag, it's designed to counter long-range threats, like intercontinental ballistic missiles fired from a different hemisphere. In Russia's case, the vastness of its territory was seen as a strength in its war with Ukraine. One of the air bases hit in Ukraine's Operation 'Spiderweb' was closer to Tokyo than Kyiv. But now Russia's size is a weakness, writes David Kirichenko on the Ukraine Watch blog of the Atlantic Council. Every border crossing may be an infiltration point; every cargo container on every highway or rail line must be treated with suspicion. 'This is a logistical nightmare,' Kirichenko said. And there is a direct analogy to the United States. US Air Force bomber bases are usually well inland, but accessible to vehicles large and small. For instance, all 20 B-2 bombers are stationed at Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri. It's about 600 miles from the nearest coastline, the Gulf of Mexico, but only about 25 miles south of Interstate 70, one of the main east-west traffic arteries in the US, with thousands of commercial vehicles passing by daily. Dyess Air Force Base in Texas, one of the homes of US B-1 bombers, sits just south of another major east-west commercial artery, Interstate 20. 'Think of all the containers and illegal entrants inside our borders,' said Carl Schuster, a former director of operations at the US Pacific Command's Joint Intelligence Center. 'That connection will trigger alarm in some US circles,' he said. Meanwhile, in the Pacific, even better US offensive firepower, like Gen. Allvin would like to have, might not be enough in the event of a conflict with China. That's because the PLA has made a concerted effort to protect its aircraft during its massive military buildup under leader Xi Jinping, according to the Hudson Institute report. China has more than 650 hardened aircraft shelters at airfields within 1,150 miles of the Taiwan Strait, the report says. But Shugart and Walton argue the best move Washington could make would be to make Beijing build more – by improving US strike capabilities in Asia. 'In response the… PLA would likely continue to spend funds on additional costly passive and active defense measures and in turn would have less to devote to alternative investments, including strike and other power projection capabilities,' they said.
CNN
2 days ago
- Politics
- CNN
How the US could be vulnerable to the same kind of drone swarm attack Ukraine unleashed on Russia's bomber fleet
Ukraine's shock drone strike on Russia's strategic bomber fleet this week has generals and analysts taking a new look at threats to high-value United States aircraft at bases in the homeland and abroad – and the situation is worrisome. 'It's an eyebrow-raising moment,' Gen. David Allvin, the US Air Force chief of staff, said at a defense conference in Washington on Tuesday, adding that the US is vulnerable to similar attacks. 'There is no sanctuary even in the US homeland – particularly given that our bases back home are essentially completely unhardened,' Thomas Shugart, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), told CNN. By 'unhardened,' Shugart means there aren't enough shelters in which US warplanes can be parked that are tough enough to protect them from airstrikes, be it from drones or missiles. Ukrainian military officials said 41 Russian aircraft were hit in last Sunday's attacks, including strategic bombers and surveillance planes, with some destroyed and others damaged. Later analysis shows at least 12 planes destroyed or damaged, and reviews of satellite imagery were continuing. The Ukrainian operation used drones smuggled into Russian territory, hidden in wooden mobile houses atop trucks and driven close to four Russian air bases, according to Ukrainian sources. Once near the bases, the roofs of the mobile houses were remotely opened, and the drones deployed to launch their strikes. The Russian planes were sitting uncovered on the tarmac at the bases, much as US warplanes are at facilities at home and abroad. 'We are pretty vulnerable,' retired US Army Gen. Stanley McChrystal told CNN's Anderson Cooper on Tuesday. 'We've got a lot of high-value assets that are extraordinarily expensive,' McChrystal said. The Ukrainians said their attacks destroyed $7 billion worth of Russian aircraft. By comparison, a single US Air Force B-2 bomber costs $2 billion. And the US has only 20 of them. Shugart co-authored a report for the Hudson Institute in January highlighting the threat to US military installations from China in the event of any conflict between the superpowers. 'People's Liberation Army (PLA) strike forces of aircraft, ground-based missile launchers, surface and subsurface vessels, and special forces can attack US aircraft and their supporting systems at airfields globally, including in the continental United States,' Shugart and fellow author Timothy Walton wrote. War game simulations and analyses show 'the overwhelming majority of US aircraft losses would likely occur on the ground at airfields (and that the losses could be ruinous),' Shugart and Walton wrote. A report from Air and Space Forces magazine last year pointed out that Anderson Air Force Base on the Pacific island of Guam – perhaps the US' most important air facility in the Pacific – which has hosted rotations of those $2 billion B-2 bombers, as well as B-1 and B-52 bombers, has no hardened shelters. Allvin, the USAF chief of staff, admitted the problem on Tuesday. 'Right now, I don't think it's where we need to be,' Allvin told a conference of the CNAS. McChrystal said the US must look at how to protect its bases and the aircraft on them but also how it monitors the areas around those facilities. 'It widens the spectrum of the threats you've got to deal with,' McChrystal said. But all that costs money, and Allvin said that presents the US with a budget dilemma. Does it spend defense dollars on hardened shelters and ways to stop drones and missiles from attacking US bases, or does it use more resources on offensive weapons that take the fight to the enemy? 'If all we are doing is playing defense and can't shoot back, then that's not a good use of our money,' Allvin told the CNAS conference. 'We've always known that hardening our bases is something we needed to do,' Allvin said, but other items have been given budget priority. Hardened aircraft shelters aren't flashy and are unlikely to generate the headlines of other defense projects, including planes like the new B-21 bombers, each of which is expected to cost around $700 million. And US President Donald Trump said recently the Air Force will build a new stealth fighter, the F-47, with an initial cost of $300 million per aircraft. 'The F-47 is an amazing aircraft, but it's going to die on the ground if we don't protect it,' Allvin said. Meanwhile, a hardened shelter costs around $30 million, according to Shugart and Walton. Last month Trump revealed another form of air defense for the US mainland, the Golden Dome missile shield, expected to cost at least $175 billion. Despite the huge price tag, it's designed to counter long-range threats, like intercontinental ballistic missiles fired from a different hemisphere. In Russia's case, the vastness of its territory was seen as a strength in its war with Ukraine. One of the air bases hit in Ukraine's Operation 'Spiderweb' was closer to Tokyo than Kyiv. But now Russia's size is a weakness, writes David Kirichenko on the Ukraine Watch blog of the Atlantic Council. Every border crossing may be an infiltration point; every cargo container on every highway or rail line must be treated with suspicion. 'This is a logistical nightmare,' Kirichenko said. And there is a direct analogy to the United States. US Air Force bomber bases are usually well inland, but accessible to vehicles large and small. For instance, all 20 B-2 bombers are stationed at Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri. It's about 600 miles from the nearest coastline, the Gulf of Mexico, but only about 25 miles south of Interstate 70, one of the main east-west traffic arteries in the US, with thousands of commercial vehicles passing by daily. Dyess Air Force Base in Texas, one of the homes of US B-1 bombers, sits just south of another major east-west commercial artery, Interstate 20. 'Think of all the containers and illegal entrants inside our borders,' said Carl Schuster, a former director of operations at the US Pacific Command's Joint Intelligence Center. 'That connection will trigger alarm in some US circles,' he said. Meanwhile, in the Pacific, even better US offensive firepower, like Gen. Allvin would like to have, might not be enough in the event of a conflict with China. That's because the PLA has made a concerted effort to protect its aircraft during its massive military buildup under leader Xi Jinping, according to the Hudson Institute report. China has more than 650 hardened aircraft shelters at airfields within 1,150 miles of the Taiwan Strait, the report says. But Shugart and Walton argue the best move Washington could make would be to make Beijing build more – by improving US strike capabilities in Asia. 'In response the… PLA would likely continue to spend funds on additional costly passive and active defense measures and in turn would have less to devote to alternative investments, including strike and other power projection capabilities,' they said.
Japan Times
15-04-2025
- Politics
- Japan Times
China's new bridge-forming barges offer new options for Taiwan invasion
If anyone was wondering what Chinese troops and armored vehicles disembarking onto Taiwan's shores could potentially look like, then footage of drills in China's southern Guangdong province showing barges equipped with interconnected landing bridges might provide a clue. Posted briefly last month on the Chinese microblogging site Weibo, the images show how three specially designed Shuiqiao-class barges can be linked up one behind the other to form a long, relocatable pier that extends from deeper waters nearly a kilometer out at sea onto a beach. The trials, held near the city of Zhanjiang, suggest Beijing is not only working on new tools to ramp up its amphibious sealift capacity, but also devising ways to overcome the limited number of suitable locations for amphibious landing operations in Taiwan, as the barges could enable Chinese troops to disembark at a wider range of locations across the self-ruled island. 'This relocatable pier system can deliver large volumes of (personnel), equipment and materiel into unimproved amphibious landing areas, damaged or blocked ports, or possibly across seawalls or other obstacles onto coastal roads,' according to a report published by the U.S. Naval War College's China Maritime Studies Institute. With a total of five areas around the barge where roll-on, roll-off ships could dock alongside, the relocatable pier could potentially transfer hundreds of vehicles ashore per hour, wrote the authors of the report, J. Michael Dahm and Thomas Shugart. The barges also feature retractable legs that can be lowered onto the seafloor to lift the entire vessel out of the water. The legs function like massive stilts forming a raised, stable platform that is less subject to the influence of currents or waves. China regards Taiwan as a breakaway province and has vowed to unite it with the mainland, either by negotiations or through force. Taiwan's military planners have long considered the island's geographic characteristics — including the rugged terrain that restricts the number of beaches suitable for amphibious landings to fewer than 20 — as key elements of their defense strategy. But Beijing's latest engineering feat could prompt them to partially reevaluate their plans, especially as the newly developed vessels appear meant for the China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy to use. 'Based on their function, paint scheme and lack of automatic identification system (AIS) transmissions, the barges are very likely PLA Navy auxiliaries and not civilian vessels,' wrote Dahm and Shugart. Images of the first three landing barges emerged in January, but Beijing appears keen on expanding this capability as soon as possible, with the authors of the report saying that a second, identical set of three is already under construction in southern China. This, the experts argue, suggests the PLA may have significantly advanced its timetable to field sufficient capabilities for a large-scale cross-strait operation against Taiwan. 'This newest logistics capability is further evidence of the PLA's efforts to meet Chairman Xi Jinping's reported mandate to have military capabilities necessary to conduct a large-scale invasion of Taiwan by 2027,' they wrote. Some top U.S. military commanders have repeatedly referred to that year as Xi's "preferred timeline' for annexation, pointing to a secretive directive from Xi calling on the PLA to be ready. It's important to note, however, that no public evidence has emerged that Beijing is planning to invade Taiwan by 2027. Just how prepared the PLA will be two years from now will also depend on the combined — and growing — deterrence and defense capabilities of Taiwan, the United States and like-minded countries such as Japan, which could make it difficult for the PLA to launch an invasion, let alone conduct a successful one. Notwithstanding the debate about Beijing's sense of urgency, experts stressed that while the new barges, also known as landing platform utility (LPU) vessels, do expand China's invasion toolkit, they are not the type of assets the PLA would use to initiate an amphibious assault, particularly in highly restricted and potentially contested areas. 'These landing barges are probably too vulnerable to spearhead an amphibious invasion of Taiwan,' Shugart, a former U.S. Navy submarine commander now with the Center for a New American Security think tank, told The Japan Times. The vessels wouldn't just be vulnerable to attacks from land, air and sea, but also to underwater mines in the 'surf zone,' or the shallower parts of the water close to shore, which would have to be cleared before any landing. 'If a Shuiqiao barge were damaged or destroyed, for example, that might neutralize the landing capability of the entire three-barge composite pier system,' Shugart added. The part to be played by these vessels would come at a later stage, Shugart and his co-author noted, namely after PLA amphibious armored brigades or airborne troops established a secure location for an 'amphibious landing base.' The barges would then come in to enable the transport of other forces, such as heavy combined arms brigades. 'Landing forces are always vulnerable to shore defenses,' said John Bradford, a naval expert and executive director of the Yokosuka Council on Asia Pacific Studies, adding that the key to an invasion is to achieve the right mix of speed and mass. 'In wargames, Chinese forces are consistently able to establish a beachhead with amphibious and airborne forces, but they are sometimes unable to amass enough forces to fight their way beyond the beach,' he said. 'These systems can change that equation.' More details are expected to emerge in the coming months and years as the PLA puts the vessels into service and uses them in increasingly complex exercises. One thing is already clear, though: Their development, experts say, alongside China's growing integration of military, paramilitary and civilian resources, reflects the PLA's rapidly growing capabilities to conduct a large-scale, cross-strait operation sooner rather than later.
