Latest news with #TianchenXu
Time of India
19-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
China's factory output resists tariff impact, retail sales disappoint
China's factory output slowed in April but showed surprising resilience, a sign that government support measures may have cushioned the impact of a trade war with the U.S. that threatens to derail momentum in the world's second-largest economy. Industrial output grew 6.1 per cent from a year earlier, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data showed on Monday, slowing from 7.7 per cent in March but beat a forecast 5.5 per cent rise in a Reuters poll. "April's resilience is in part a result of 'frontloaded' fiscal support," said Tianchen Xu, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, referring to stronger government spending. The data followed firmer-than-expected exports earlier this month that economists said were supported by exporters rerouting shipments and countries buying more materials from China amid a re-ordering of global trade due to U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs. However, Monday's data underscored the shock from U.S. reciprocal tariffs, Xu said, adding "despite the rapid growth in industrial value-added, the export delivery value was nearly stagnant." Beijing and Washington reached a surprise agreement last week to roll back most tariffs imposed on each other's goods since early April. The 90-day pause has put the brakes on a trade war that has disrupted global supply chains and stoked recession fears. "China's foreign trade has overcome difficulties and maintained steady growth, demonstrating strong resilience and international competitiveness," Fu Linghui, statistics bureau spokesperson, told a press conference on Monday. He added that the trade de-escalation would benefit bilateral trade growth and global economic recovery. But economists have warned that the short-term truce and U.S. President Donald Trump's unpredictable approach will continue to cast a shadow over China's export-driven economy, which still faces 30 per cent tariffs on top of existing duties. By midday, China's blue-chip CSI300 Index dropped 0.4 per cent and the Shanghai Composite Index lost 0.1%. The yuan currency also slipped against the dollar. Pressures Remain The property sector has yet to show signs of recovery, with home prices stagnating and investment in the sector shrinking. Retail sales, a measure of consumption, rose 5.1 per cent in April, down from a 5.9 per cent increase in March, and missed forecasts for a 5.5 per cent expansion. Economists attributed the slowdown to the impact of U.S. tariffs on consumer expectations and tepid demand at home. Commodity sectors also showed signs of weakness with the country's daily crude oil processing rate down 4.9 per cent in April from March, while crude steel output slid 7 per cent month-on-month. Meanwhile, the government's push to boost household spending via a trade-in scheme for consumer goods led to a 38.8 per cent gain in home appliance sales. The NBS data also showed the unemployment rate fell to 5.1 per cent from 5.2 per cent in March. But anecdotal evidence showed that some factories heavily reliant on the U.S. market have sent their workers home. With persistent deflationary pressures and worse-than-expected bank lending data, economists highlighted the need for more policy support to foster a sustainable recovery. "We caution that the near-term growth strength is at the cost of payback effects later and believe more policy easing is necessary to stabilise growth, employment and market sentiment," Goldman Sachs economists said in a note. China's economy expanded 5.4 per cent in the first quarter, exceeding expectations. Authorities remain confident of achieving Beijing's growth target of around 5 per cent this year, despite warnings from economists that U.S. tariffs could derail this momentum. Alarmed by how tariffs have hurt economic activity, authorities earlier this month announced a package of stimulus measures, including interest rate cuts and a major liquidity injection. The monetary easing measures were announced before the China-U.S. trade detente was reached after high-stakes talks in Geneva, marking a significant de-escalation from months of mounting tensions. The U.S.-China "deal" agreed at the start of last week will provide some relief, said Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China Economics at Capital Economics, "but even if the tariff rollback proves durable, wider headwinds mean that we still expect China's economy to slow further over the coming quarters." "We suspect that the trade war has made households more concerned about their job prospects and therefore more careful about their spending."
The Star
19-05-2025
- Business
- The Star
China's factory output resists tariff impact, retail sales disappoint
BEIJING: China's factory output slowed in April but showed surprising resilience, a sign that government support measures may have cushioned the impact of a trade war with the U.S. that threatens to derail momentum in the world's second-largest economy. Industrial output grew 6.1% from a year earlier, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data showed on Monday, slowing from 7.7% in March but beat a forecast 5.5% rise in a Reuters poll. "April's resilience is in part a result of 'frontloaded' fiscal support," said Tianchen Xu, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, referring to stronger government spending. The data followed firmer-than-expected exports earlier this month that economists said were supported by exporters rerouting shipments and countries buying more materials from China amid a re-ordering of global trade due to U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs. However, Monday's data underscored the shock from U.S. reciprocal tariffs, Xu said, adding "despite the rapid growth in industrial value-added, the export delivery value was nearly stagnant." Beijing and Washington reached a surprise agreement last week to roll back most tariffs imposed on each other's goods since early April. The 90-day pause has put the brakes on a trade war that has disrupted global supply chains and stoked recession fears. "China's foreign trade has overcome difficulties and maintained steady growth, demonstrating strong resilience and international competitiveness," Fu Linghui, statistics bureau spokesperson, told a press conference on Monday. He added that the trade de-escalation would benefit bilateral trade growth and global economic recovery. But economists have warned that the short-term truce and U.S. President Donald Trump's unpredictable approach will continue to cast a shadow over China's export-driven economy, which still faces 30% tariffs on top of existing duties. By midday, China's blue-chip CSI300 Index dropped 0.4% and the Shanghai Composite Index lost 0.1%. The yuan currency also slipped against the dollar. PRESSURES REMAIN The property sector has yet to show signs of recovery, with home prices stagnating and investment in the sector shrinking. Retail sales, a measure of consumption, rose 5.1% in April, down from a 5.9% increase in March, and missed forecasts for a 5.5% expansion. Economists attributed the slowdown to the impact of U.S. tariffs on consumer expectations and tepid demand at home. Commodity sectors also showed signs of weakness with the country's daily crude oil processing rate down 4.9% in April from March, while crude steel output slid 7% month-on-month. Meanwhile, the government's push to boost household spending via a trade-in scheme for consumer goods led to a 38.8% gain in home appliance sales. The NBS data also showed the unemployment rate fell to 5.1% from 5.2% in March. But anecdotal evidence showed that some factories heavily reliant on the U.S. market have sent their workers home. With persistent deflationary pressures and worse-than-expected bank lending data, economists highlighted the need for more policy support to foster a sustainable recovery. "We caution that the near-term growth strength is at the cost of payback effects later and believe more policy easing is necessary to stabilise growth, employment and market sentiment," Goldman Sachs economists said in a note. China's economy expanded 5.4% in the first quarter, exceeding expectations. Authorities remain confident of achieving Beijing's growth target of around 5% this year, despite warnings from economists that U.S. tariffs could derail this momentum. Alarmed by how tariffs have hurt economic activity, authorities earlier this month announced a package of stimulus measures, including interest rate cuts and a major liquidity injection. The monetary easing measures were announced before the China-U.S. trade detente was reached after high-stakes talks in Geneva, marking a significant de-escalation from months of mounting tensions. The U.S.-China "deal" agreed at the start of last week will provide some relief, said Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China Economics at Capital Economics, "but even if the tariff rollback proves durable, wider headwinds mean that we still expect China's economy to slow further over the coming quarters." "We suspect that the trade war has made households more concerned about their job prospects and therefore more careful about their spending." - Reuters
Zawya
17-03-2025
- Business
- Zawya
China's Jan-Feb retail sales pick up as economy navigates tariff strains
BEIJING - China's retail sales growth quickened in January-February in a welcome sign for policymakers' efforts to boost domestic consumption even as joblessness rose and factory output eased, underscoring the strains on an economy facing fresh U.S. tariff pressure. The data followed weaker-than-expected exports and inflation indicators earlier this month, as a burst of U.S. trade tariffs against key trading partners including China threatens to upend the global trade order. China's top leaders have maintained an economic growth target of "around 5%" for 2025, but analysts say that may be a tall order given pressure on exports, tepid household demand and a protracted property crisis. "The risk to the economy is the damage from higher U.S. tariffs on China's exports which will likely show up in the trade data over the next few months," said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management. "I think Beijing will continue its current policy stance. There is no urgency to loosen monetary policy by cutting RRR or interest rate at this stage," he said, adding that policymakers may choose to wait for a few months before cutting rates given the trade uncertainties. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed retail sales, a gauge of consumption, rose 4.0% in the January-February period, better than a 3.7% rise in December and marking the quickest rate since November 2024. Analysts had expected retail sales to grow 4.0%. Household consumption in the first two months were buoyed by holiday spending during the 8-day Lunar New Year holidays, when China's box office raked in record takings with animated hit "Nezha 2". In the annual parliament meeting earlier this month, China's leaders pledged stronger fiscal and monetary support for the economy. Policymakers have put expanding domestic demand as the top priority this year. Among other measures, they have lined up 300 billion yuan ($41.5 billion) for a recently-expanded consumer goods trade-in scheme for electric vehicles, appliances and other goods. "Retail sales growth was decent, reflecting the vital role of subsidies in supporting home appliance and mobile phone sales," said Tianchen Xu, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit. However, the effect of the scheme may "fade over time", with auto sales already down in the first two months, he added. The NBS data showed home appliance and audio-visual device sales grew 10.9%, compared with December's 39.3% jump. Catering revenue, however, rose 4.3% underpinned by the festival boost, faster than the 2.7% rise in December. On Sunday, China unveiled a "special action plan" to boost domestic consumption, featuring measures including increasing residents' income and establishing a childcare subsidy scheme. Officials from the country's top economic ministries will brief media on consumption-boosting measures later on Monday. UNEMPLOYMENT, TRUMP WOES Highlighting the stress facing households, the urban survey-based jobless rate in February climbed to 5.4%, the highest in two years. U.S. President Donald Trump has piled an additional 20% of tariffs on all Chinese goods and is threatening more action. Exports were one of the lone bright spots for China's economy last year. With factories shutting down temporarily during the Lunar New Year holidays, China's industrial output grew 5.9% year-on-year in the first two months, slowing from the 6.2% expansion in December. However, it was ahead of expectations for a 5.3% rise. China publishes data for the two months in a combined release to smooth out the impact of the LNY holidays, which fall in either of the two months. Fixed asset investment, which includes property and infrastructure investment, expanded 4.1% in the Jan-Feb period from the same period a year earlier, versus expectations for a 3.6% rise. It grew 3.2% in 2024. The real estate sector remained underpowered, underlining the low confidence. Property investment fell 9.8% in the first two months of 2025 year-on-year, after tumbling 10.6% in 2024. An NBS spokesperson said the country's housing market faces some pressure despite signs of stabilising. ($1 = 7.2308 Chinese yuan renminbi) (Reporting by Kevin Yao, Ellen Zhang, Yukun Zhang and Ryan Woo Editing by Kim Coghill and Shri Navaratnam)
Reuters
17-03-2025
- Business
- Reuters
China's Jan-Feb industrial output slows, retail sales growth picks up speed
BEIJING, March 17 (Reuters) - China's industrial output slowed in January-February, while retail sales growth accelerated slightly in a mixed start for the economy this year as policymakers navigate mounting pressure from U.S. trade tariffs. The data followed weaker-than-expected exports and inflation indicators earlier this month, as a burst of U.S. trade tariffs against key trading partners including China threatens to upend the global trade order and highlights the need for more policy support to foster a sustainable economic recovery. here. China's top leaders have maintained an economic growth target of "around 5%" for 2025, but analysts say that may be a tall order given pressure on exports, tepid household demand and a protracted property crisis. "The data release suggests a decent momentum in the opening months, even if the economy remains in deflation," said Tianchen Xu, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit. "Retail sales growth was decent, too, reflecting the vital role of subsidies in supporting home appliance and mobile phone sales." U.S. President Donald Trump has piled an additional 20% of tariffs on all Chinese goods and is threatening more action. Exports were one of the lone bright spots for China's economy last year. China's industrial output grew 5.9% year-on-year in the first two months, slowing from the 6.2% expansion in December, according to the data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). However, it was ahead of expectations for a 5.3% rise in a Reuters poll of 26 analysts. Retail sales, a gauge of consumption, rose 4.0% in the January-February period, better than a 3.7% rise in December and marking the quickest rate since November 2024. Analysts had expected retail sales to grow 4.0%. Household consumption in the first two months were buoyed by holiday spending during the 8-day Lunar New Year holidays, when China's box office raked in record takings with animated hit "Nezha 2". China publishes data for the two months in a combined release to smooth out the impact of the Lunar New Year holidays, which fall in either of the two months. In the annual parliament meeting earlier this month, China's leaders pledged stronger fiscal and monetary support for the economy. Policymakers have put expanding domestic demand as the top priority this year. Among other measures, they have lined up 300 billion yuan ($41.5 billion) for a recently-expanded consumer goods trade-in scheme for electric vehicles, appliances and other goods. On Sunday, China's State Council unveiled a "special action plan" to boost domestic consumption, featuring measures including increasing residents' income and establishing a childcare subsidy scheme. Officials from the country's top economic ministries will brief media on consumption-boosting measures later on Monday. The urban survey-based jobless rate in February climbed to 5.4%, the highest in two years. Fixed asset investment, which includes property and infrastructure investment, expanded 4.1% in the Jan-Feb period from the same period a year earlier, versus expectations for a 3.6% rise. It grew 3.2% in 2024. ($1 = 7.2308 Chinese yuan renminbi)
