Latest news with #TobyCopson
Business Recorder
16-05-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Global LNG: Asian spot LNG prices rise slightly on US-China tariff truce
LONDON: Asian spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices rose slightly for the second week running amid a slight uptick in demand as industrial sentiment improved following a 90-day tariff truce agreed by the United States and China during trade talks. The average LNG price for July delivery into north-east Asia was at $11.75 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), up from $11.50/mmBtu last week, industry sources estimated. 'Activity has picked up somewhat and prices have started to trend upwards with some utilities and traders stepping in to pick up June cargos,' said Toby Copson, chairman at Davenport Energy Partners. He added that the market was not tight from a fundamental perspective but lower prices have tempted some buyers who need to satisfy their contractual volume obligations. In April, China, the world's largest LNG buyer, recorded its lowest LNG demand since October 2022, and has been reselling U.S.-sourced LNG cargoes to Europe due to a tariff war with the United States. A 90-day tariff truce was agreed by the United States and China during trade talks in Switzerland last weekend. This could unblock some of the two-way trade brought to a standstill by the conflict between the world's two biggest economies. If a final deal between the two powers is agreed, it might spur economic activity in China and support a pick up in gas demand. Global LNG: Asian spot prices hold at 1-year low as demand remains tepid 'While these tariffs are unlikely to have an effect on physical LNG flows, with China's 25% tariff on U.S. LNG still enough of an incentive for Chinese firms to send their U.S. cargoes elsewhere, the positive news supported industrial demand expectations,' said Martin Senior, head of LNG pricing at Argus. Go Katayama, LNG and gas analyst at data analytics firm Kpler said that further Asian price upside is possible driven by warmer-than-normal temperatures in Thailand. In Europe, gas prices at the Dutch TTF hub remain range-bound between 34-35 euros per megawatt hour. 'While ample supply and subdued demand have kept prices capped, a persistently narrow JKM-TTF spread is prompting renewed price competition with Asia. Upcoming colder weather across Germany and central eastern Europe may nudge TTF prices higher,' Kpler's Katayama said. 'The outlook remains range-bound due to relaxed EU storage targets and coupming maintenance at key regasification sites like Zeebrugge and Montoir,' he added. S&P Global Commodity Insights assessed its daily North West Europe LNG Marker (NWM) price benchmark for cargoes delivered in June on an ex-ship (DES) basis at $10.897/mmBtu on May 15, a $0.63/mmBtu discount to the June gas price at the TTF hub. Argus assessed the price for June delivery at $10.845/mmBtu, while Spark Commodities assessed it at $10.946/mmBtu. The U.S. arbitrage to north-east Asia via the Cape of Good Hope increased this week, marginally pointing to Europe, while the arbitrage via Panama continues to point to Asia, said Spark Commodities analyst Qasim Afghan. In the LNG freight market, Atlantic rates showed their largest week-on-week drop since January and were assessed at $32,500/day on Friday, while Pacific rates remained relatively stable at $22,250/day, Afghan added.
Reuters
16-05-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Asian spot LNG prices rise slightly on US-China tariff truce
LONDON, May 16 (Reuters) - Asian spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices rose slightly for the second week running amid a slight uptick in demand as industrial sentiment improved following a 90-day tariff truce agreed by the United States and China during trade talks. The average LNG price for July delivery into north-east Asia was at $11.75 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), up from $11.50/mmBtu last week, industry sources estimated. "Activity has picked up somewhat and prices have started to trend upwards with some utilities and traders stepping in to pick up June cargos," said Toby Copson, chairman at Davenport Energy Partners. He added that the market was not tight from a fundamental perspective but lower prices have tempted some buyers who need to satisfy their contractual volume obligations. In April, China, the world's largest LNG buyer, recorded its lowest LNG demand since October 2022, and has been reselling U.S.-sourced LNG cargoes to Europe due to a tariff war with the United States. A 90-day tariff truce was agreed by the United States and China during trade talks in Switzerland last weekend. This could unblock some of the two-way trade brought to a standstill by the conflict between the world's two biggest economies. If a final deal between the two powers is agreed, it might spur economic activity in China and support a pick up in gas demand. "While these tariffs are unlikely to have an effect on physical LNG flows, with China's 25% tariff on U.S. LNG still enough of an incentive for Chinese firms to send their U.S. cargoes elsewhere, the positive news supported industrial demand expectations," said Martin Senior, head of LNG pricing at Argus. Go Katayama, LNG and gas analyst at data analytics firm Kpler said that further Asian price upside is possible driven by warmer-than-normal temperatures in Thailand. In Europe, gas prices at the Dutch TTF hub remain range- bound between 34-35 euros per megawatt hour. "While ample supply and subdued demand have kept prices capped, a persistently narrow JKM-TTF spread is prompting renewed price competition with Asia. Upcoming colder weather across Germany and central eastern Europe may nudge TTF prices higher," Kpler's Katayama said. "The outlook remains range-bound due to relaxed EU storage targets and coupming maintenance at key regasification sites like Zeebrugge and Montoir," he added. S&P Global Commodity Insights assessed its daily North West Europe LNG Marker (NWM) price benchmark for cargoes delivered in June on an ex-ship (DES) basis at $10.897/mmBtu on May 15, a $0.63/mmBtu discount to the June gas price at the TTF hub. Argus assessed the price for June delivery at $10.845/mmBtu, while Spark Commodities assessed it at $10.946/mmBtu. The U.S. arbitrage to north-east Asia via the Cape of Good Hope increased this week, marginally pointing to Europe, while the arbitrage via Panama continues to point to Asia, said Spark Commodities analyst Qasim Afghan. In the LNG freight market, Atlantic rates showed their largest week-on-week drop since January and were assessed at $32,500/day on Friday, while Pacific rates remained relatively stable at $22,250/day, Afghan added.
Reuters
28-03-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Asian spot LNG prices at nearly 6-month low on muted Chinese demand
LONDON, March 28 (Reuters) - Asian spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices were at their lowest level in nearly six months amid muted demand in China and Japan due to high stocks after a mild winter, but are expected to get support from stronger European demand. The average LNG price for May delivery into north-east Asia was at $13.00 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), the lowest level since Oct. 11, 2024 and down from $13.60/mmBtu last week, industry sources estimated. "Asian demand, most notably China, is lacking. So we're looking at declining rates and the paper bid isn't there to support spot," said Toby Copson, chairman at Davenport Energy Partners. "Were at a price level that will entice south Asia and India so expect more volume to flow there until cooling demand ramps up across north Asia," he added. Stronger domestic production, pipeline imports, renewable generation and weak industrial demand have kept Chinese demand muted, leaving only Taiwan and South Korea as the main spot buyers over the past week, said Martin Senior, Argus head of LNG pricing. LNG deliveries to Asia have dropped by 10% in the first quarter of 2025. Chinese LNG imports dropped to the lowest since 2022, partly due to a 15% tariff on U.S. LNG imposed by Beijing earlier this year. Yet, JKM prices have traded $4.60/mmBtu above Q1 2024 levels, said Florence Schmit, energy strategist at Rabo Bank. "Despite weaker Asian LNG demand, strong demand from Europe is expected to keep JKM prices elevated. We forecast Europe's benchmark gas price to trade in the low 40 euros/MWh over the summer, driven by higher LNG demand for storage purposes," she added. EU gas storage inventories were last seen 33.6% full, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe. In the European gas market, prices at the Dutch TTF hub continues to be range-bound, struggling to break out of the 40-45 euros/MWh range, as uncertainty over supply availability in the summer plays against slowly declining gas demand as the weather turns milder, Schmit said. The market showed little reaction to reports that the metering station at the Russian gas metering station in Sudzha, which is at the transit point where Russia pumped gas by pipeline across Ukraine and into Europe until the end of last year, has been largely destroyed. S&P Global Commodity Insights assessed its daily North West Europe LNG Marker (NWM) price benchmark for cargoes delivered in May on an ex-ship (DES) basis at $12.395/mmBtu on March 27, a $0.69/mmBtu discount to the May gas price at the Dutch TTF hub. Argus assessed the price for May delivery at $12.49/mmBtu, while Spark Commodities assessed the April price at $12.359/mmBtu. The U.S. arbitrage to north-east Asia via the Cape of Good Hope continues to incentivise U.S. cargoes to deliver to Europe, said Spark Commodities analyst Qasim Afghan. In the LNG freight market, Atlantic rates dropped this week for the first time in two months to $28,250/day on Friday, while Pacific rates rose to $27,500/day, Afghan added.
Reuters
31-01-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Asian spot LNG prices down amid low demand during Lunar New Year holiday
LONDON, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Asian spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices fell this week amid low demand during the Lunar New Year holiday in Asia, encouraging cargo diversions towards Europe where gas prices are at a 15-month high amid concerns over storage refilling. The average LNG price for February delivery into north-east Asia was at $13.80 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), down from $14/mmBtu last week, industry sources estimated. "Demand in Asia, particularly in China, has been weaker than the seasonal norm, which has been pulling rates down. We're seeing some strength going in to March deliveries," said Toby Copson, chairman at Davenport Energy Partners. "However, overall sentiment remains muted so cargoes are being re-routed to Europe to capture premiums," Copson added. High prices are also discouraging price sensitive buyers in south-east Asian markets. "Asian LNG buyers are firmly out of the market for spot U.S. LNG cargoes, not only for next-month deliveries but also for future months," said Natasha Fielding, head of European gas, LNG and biomass pricing at Argus. In Europe, colder weather and higher storage withdrawals continue to concern the market. "Higher prices in Europe encouraged a burst of LNG tankers to divert away from Asia to Europe in early January, with at least six making mid-Atlantic course changes. We saw a seventh this week, with the LNG Juno changing course from Japan to Greece," said Alex Froley, senior LNG analyst at ICIS. Malaysia's Petronas said, opens new tab that its operations in Miri and Bintulu ports remain uninterrupted despite severe flooding, easing market concerns over LNG supply disruptions. "All eyes are currently fixated on the last straw that could quicken the pace of European storage withdrawals and leave sites so depleted after the winter that the only way forward will be fierce competition for LNG," said Florence Schmit, European energy strategist at Rabobank. "Sentiment is very bullish at the moment and governments across Europe talking about subsidising storage injections during the summer only amplifies this trend," Schmit added. S&P Global Commodity Insights assessed its daily North West Europe LNG Marker (NWM) price benchmark for cargoes delivered in March on an ex-ship (DES) basis at $15.31/mmBtu on Jan. 30, a $0.47/mmBtu discount to the March gas price at the Dutch TTF hub. Argus assessed the price at $15.26/mmBtu, while Spark Commodities assessed the price for February delivery at $15.339/mmBtu. The U.S. arbitrage to north-east Asia via the Cape of Good Hope for February has slightly narrowed, but still strongly signals that U.S. cargoes are incentivised to deliver to Europe rather than Asia, said Spark Commodities analyst Qasim Afghan. Global LNG freight rates fell to new record lows this week as Atlantic rates dropped to $3,500/day on Friday, the lowest on record as increased vessel availability continue to apply downward pressure on rates. Pacific rates also droppped to $11,500/day, Afghan added.
