Latest news with #TonySycamore
Yahoo
27-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Japan's Nikkei seen rising about 5% by year-end, shaking off Trump tariff impact: Reuters poll
By Kevin Buckland TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's Nikkei share average will climb about 5% by end-year as uncertainties over U.S. trade policies that have been holding the index back continue to clear up, although volatility is likely in the near term, according to equity strategists in a Reuters poll. The Nikkei is forecast to trade at 39,600 at the end of December, according to the median estimate of 17 analysts polled between May 15 and 27, up from Tuesday's close of 37,724.11. It was predicted to trade at 40,875 in mid-2026, up 8.35%, and at 42,000 by the end of that year, an 11.33% increase. Three analysts predicted the Nikkei will top July's all-time peak of 42,426.77 by June next year, and two analysts saw it doing so by end-2026. "The current uncertainty around tariffs and U.S. trade policy should be in the rear-view mirror" heading towards the end of this year, said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG, who predicts the Nikkei will end December at 40,000 and rise to a record 44,000 a year later. "This will allow the market to revert back to trading the fundamental drivers, such as a weak yen, still-low interest rates and strong corporate earnings." Japanese stocks have swung wildly in the months since reaching that record high, dropping as much as 27% into a bear market by the start of August, mostly tracking sell-offs on Wall Street as worries about the health of the U.S. economy came to a head. They recovered almost as quickly in the run-up to the U.S. presidential election, but then suffered another precipitous tumble of nearly 20%, rocked by Donald Trump's tariff policies. TIGHTENING CYCLE The usually safe-haven yen has likewise been volatile, climbing some 14% from a nearly four-decade trough to the dollar set in July, although it remains cheap by historical standards. A weak currency helps Japan's export-dependent economy by boosting the value of overseas earnings in yen terms. While the Bank of Japan is an outlier among global central banks in raising interest rates, the tightening cycle started from an extremely low base and the pace has been slowed by uncertainties surrounding global trade. For the time being, those uncertainties will keep stock market volatility elevated, said Oxford Economics economist Norihiro Yamaguchi, who predicts only marginal gains for the Nikkei through to end-2026, when it will be at 38,900, making him one of the most bearish forecasters. Just over half of analysts who answered an additional question, or seven of 12, said a correction - usually defined as a decline of 10% or more - was unlikely. The other five said it was likely. They were also divided on whether corporate earnings this year will top the strong batch from 2024, with six predicting marginally higher results and six expecting a marginal decline. Where analysts agree is that more clarity over global trade policy is needed in order to make more confident forecasts. Nomura's head of macro research, Yunosuke Ikeda, said Trump's "shocking" tariff announcement on April 2 forced the firm to flip forecasts for 7% earnings growth to -7%. Following some progress with China and the 90-day pause on the latest levies, that earnings forecast currently stands at -3%. Ikeda expects the Nikkei will rise only modestly to 39,500 by year-end and reach 41,500 a year later. (Other stories from the Reuters Q2 global stock markets poll package)
Reuters
27-05-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Japan's Nikkei seen rising about 5% by year-end, shaking off Trump tariff impact
TOKYO, May 28 (Reuters) - Japan's Nikkei share average (.N225), opens new tab will climb about 5% by end-year as uncertainties over U.S. trade policies that have been holding the index back continue to clear up, although volatility is likely in the near term, according to equity strategists in a Reuters poll. The Nikkei is forecast to trade at 39,600 at the end of December, according to the median estimate of 17 analysts polled between May 15 and 27, up from Tuesday's close of 37,724.11. It was predicted to trade at 40,875 in mid-2026, up 8.35%, and at 42,000 by the end of that year, an 11.33% increase. Three analysts predicted the Nikkei will top July's all-time peak of 42,426.77 by June next year, and two analysts saw it doing so by end-2026. "The current uncertainty around tariffs and U.S. trade policy should be in the rear-view mirror" heading towards the end of this year, said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG, who predicts the Nikkei will end December at 40,000 and rise to a record 44,000 a year later. "This will allow the market to revert back to trading the fundamental drivers, such as a weak yen, still-low interest rates and strong corporate earnings." Japanese stocks have swung wildly in the months since reaching that record high, dropping as much as 27% into a bear market by the start of August, mostly tracking sell-offs on Wall Street as worries about the health of the U.S. economy came to a head. They recovered almost as quickly in the run-up to the U.S. presidential election, but then suffered another precipitous tumble of nearly 20%, rocked by Donald Trump's tariff policies. The usually safe-haven yen has likewise been volatile, climbing some 14% from a nearly four-decade trough to the dollar set in July, although it remains cheap by historical standards. A weak currency helps Japan's export-dependent economy by boosting the value of overseas earnings in yen terms. While the Bank of Japan is an outlier among global central banks in raising interest rates, the tightening cycle started from an extremely low base and the pace has been slowed by uncertainties surrounding global trade. For the time being, those uncertainties will keep stock market volatility elevated, said Oxford Economics economist Norihiro Yamaguchi, who predicts only marginal gains for the Nikkei through to end-2026, when it will be at 38,900, making him one of the most bearish forecasters. Just over half of analysts who answered an additional question, or seven of 12, said a correction - usually defined as a decline of 10% or more - was unlikely. The other five said it was likely. They were also divided on whether corporate earnings this year will top the strong batch from 2024, with six predicting marginally higher results and six expecting a marginal decline. Where analysts agree is that more clarity over global trade policy is needed in order to make more confident forecasts. Nomura's head of macro research, Yunosuke Ikeda, said Trump's "shocking" tariff announcement on April 2 forced the firm to flip forecasts for 7% earnings growth to -7%. Following some progress with China and the 90-day pause on the latest levies, that earnings forecast currently stands at -3%. Ikeda expects the Nikkei will rise only modestly to 39,500 by year-end and reach 41,500 a year later. (Other stories from the Reuters Q2 global stock markets poll package)
Yahoo
27-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Japan's Nikkei seen rising about 5% by year-end, shaking off Trump tariff impact: Reuters poll
By Kevin Buckland TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's Nikkei share average will climb about 5% by end-year as uncertainties over U.S. trade policies that have been holding the index back continue to clear up, although volatility is likely in the near term, according to equity strategists in a Reuters poll. The Nikkei is forecast to trade at 39,600 at the end of December, according to the median estimate of 17 analysts polled between May 15 and 27, up from Tuesday's close of 37,724.11. It was predicted to trade at 40,875 in mid-2026, up 8.35%, and at 42,000 by the end of that year, an 11.33% increase. Three analysts predicted the Nikkei will top July's all-time peak of 42,426.77 by June next year, and two analysts saw it doing so by end-2026. "The current uncertainty around tariffs and U.S. trade policy should be in the rear-view mirror" heading towards the end of this year, said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG, who predicts the Nikkei will end December at 40,000 and rise to a record 44,000 a year later. "This will allow the market to revert back to trading the fundamental drivers, such as a weak yen, still-low interest rates and strong corporate earnings." Japanese stocks have swung wildly in the months since reaching that record high, dropping as much as 27% into a bear market by the start of August, mostly tracking sell-offs on Wall Street as worries about the health of the U.S. economy came to a head. They recovered almost as quickly in the run-up to the U.S. presidential election, but then suffered another precipitous tumble of nearly 20%, rocked by Donald Trump's tariff policies. TIGHTENING CYCLE The usually safe-haven yen has likewise been volatile, climbing some 14% from a nearly four-decade trough to the dollar set in July, although it remains cheap by historical standards. A weak currency helps Japan's export-dependent economy by boosting the value of overseas earnings in yen terms. While the Bank of Japan is an outlier among global central banks in raising interest rates, the tightening cycle started from an extremely low base and the pace has been slowed by uncertainties surrounding global trade. For the time being, those uncertainties will keep stock market volatility elevated, said Oxford Economics economist Norihiro Yamaguchi, who predicts only marginal gains for the Nikkei through to end-2026, when it will be at 38,900, making him one of the most bearish forecasters. Just over half of analysts who answered an additional question, or seven of 12, said a correction - usually defined as a decline of 10% or more - was unlikely. The other five said it was likely. They were also divided on whether corporate earnings this year will top the strong batch from 2024, with six predicting marginally higher results and six expecting a marginal decline. Where analysts agree is that more clarity over global trade policy is needed in order to make more confident forecasts. Nomura's head of macro research, Yunosuke Ikeda, said Trump's "shocking" tariff announcement on April 2 forced the firm to flip forecasts for 7% earnings growth to -7%. Following some progress with China and the 90-day pause on the latest levies, that earnings forecast currently stands at -3%. Ikeda expects the Nikkei will rise only modestly to 39,500 by year-end and reach 41,500 a year later. (Other stories from the Reuters Q2 global stock markets poll package) Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Reuters
27-05-2025
- Business
- Reuters
Asian shares dip, dollar struggles after Trump's tariff backflip
SINGAPORE, May 27 (Reuters) - Asian shares eased on Tuesday, though U.S. futures rose after President Donald Trump delayed his threatened 50% duties on European Union shipments, while the dollar was headed for a fifth straight monthly loss. In Japan, yields on super-long government bonds fell early in the session, retreating from their all-time highs in the wake of last week's heavy selloff in the bonds. Markets in the U.S. were closed on Monday for a holiday, making for thin overnight trading conditions and leaving investors latching on to lingering optimism from Trump's U-turn on his threat to impose 50% tariffs on imports from the EU next month, restoring a July 9 deadline. Nasdaq futures were up 1.26% in Asia while S&P 500 futures similarly rose 1.11%. FTSE futures advanced 0.94%. UK markets were also closed on Monday. "It was a better night for risk assets, following Trump deferring (EU tariffs) back to July 9," said Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG. "What I think probably is now the main driver for this week is we've got the month-end rebalancing flows, which should start to kick in anytime soon... Nvidia's earnings report again is going to be front and centre in terms of what's going on there." Results from Nvidia (NVDA.O), opens new tab are due on Wednesday, where the AI darling is expected to report a 65.9% jump in first-quarter revenue. Elsewhere, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS), opens new tab was down 0.17%, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225), opens new tab similarly fell 0.15%. China's CSI300 blue-chip index (.CSI300), opens new tab edged 0.06% lower while the Shanghai Composite Index (.SSEC), opens new tab was little changed. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (.HSI), opens new tab dipped 0.1%. Focus for investors this week will also be on speeches from a slew of Federal Reserve policymakers and Friday's U.S. core PCE price index, for clues on the outlook for U.S. rates. A two-day annual conference hosted by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and its affiliated think tank kicked off on Tuesday, with this year's gathering of global central bankers in Tokyo set to focus on flagging economic growth and sticky inflation. In currencies, the dollar struggled to find its footing and was headed for a fifth straight month of declines against a basket of currencies , which would mark the longest such losing streak since 2017. The euro hovered near a one-month high at $1.14035, while the yen was up nearly 0.5% at 142.18 per dollar. Trump's chaotic trade policies and concerns over the worsening U.S. deficit outlook have undermined sentiment towards U.S. assets and in turn been a drag on the dollar. "A U.S. dollar regime change could be in the making in the long term after it appears to have peaked recently," said David Meier, an economist at Julius Baer. "Erratic U.S. policymaking, the tense fiscal situation, and large external indebtedness, against the backdrop of the twin deficit, suggest that a weaker USD is the route of least resistance." And as the dollar loses some of its safe-haven appeal, investors have instead sought alternatives such as gold, sending prices to record highs this year . It last traded 0.28% lower at $3,332.91 an ounce. Elsewhere, oil prices eased on Tuesday as investors weighed the possibility of an OPEC+ decision to further increase its crude oil output at a meeting later this week. Brent crude futures eased 0.1% to $64.67 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.16% to $61.43 per barrel.
Yahoo
26-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
ASX flat on latest Trump tariffs news
The Australian sharemarket traded flat on Monday during a quiet day of trading, despite the US President saying he will slow down his tariff plans on the European Union. The benchmark ASX200 index gained just 0.10 points on Monday, or 0.00 per cent to 8,361, on a day where it traded in a range of just 25 points. The broader All Ordinaries also had a marginal gain up 2.10 points or 0.02 per cent to 8,588.80. The Australian dollar soared to a fresh six-month high, along with Chinese yuan, on Monday and is now buying 65.20 US cents. Australia's market traded flat despite Wall Street futures soaring more than 1 per cent on the back of US President Donald Trump agreeing to delay the start of a 50 per cent tariff on the EU from June 1 to July 9. Despite a strong lead in, the Australian market split between gains and losses with five of the 11 sectors finishing in the green. The major banks and miners had a mixed day. CBA eked out a small gain up 0.023 to $173.88, while NAB fell 0.80 per cent to $37.40, ANZ slid 1.41 per cent to $28.66 and Westpac fell 0.29 per cent to $31.25. Bourse heavyweight BHP traded higher, up 0.57 per cent to $38.57, and Fortescue rose 0.19 per cent to $15.54 despite iron ore futures sliding further on Monday, while Rio Tinto fell 1.33 per cent to $115.21. IG market analyst Tony Sycamore described Monday's trading as a 'snoozefest' as cautious traders discarded a surge in US futures. 'It was a major snoozefest on the back of the long weekend in the United States and a sort of cautious sentiment on the market,' he said. The one bright spot on the ASX was the uranium miners, which extended Friday's rally on the back of Mr Trump signing an executive order which should kickstart the US nuclear energy industry. Deep Yellow was the strongest performing share on the ASX 200 soaring 13.7 per cent to $1.42, Boss Energy rose 7.3 per cent to $4.27 and Paladin Energy 8.8 per cent to $6.28. Mr Sycamore said the rise in the Australian dollar would have a mixed effect on the ASX. 'The exporters do better when the Aussie dollar is cheaper while it's a good thing for the importers,' he said. 'We've got importers such as furniture importers, or even the airlines which have to buy their jet fuel in US dollars, so they are in a sense an importer as well. 'Any company that earns US dollars and then repatriates them in the Aussie dollar it's not a great thing for those particular markets.' In company news shares, Origin Energy slumped 4.9 per cent to $1051 after the business announced earnings from its stake in Australian Pacific LNG and Octopus Energy would come in lower than previously expected. Shares in Elders also tumbled 6.67 per cent to $6.16 despite reporting a 5 per cent increase in sales revenue to $1.41bn and underlying earnings before EBIT came in 67 per cent higher than the prior corresponding period at $64.3m. Error while retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error while retrieving data
