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Yahoo
4 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
How trafficked American guns fuel Mexico's cartel violence
More than two thirds of guns recovered at Mexican crime scenes originate in the U.S. For decades, Mexico has struggled with staggering levels of gun violence fueled in large part by weapons trafficked across its northern border. Now an investigation published by The Conversation has arrived at a new estimate of the scale of this illicit gun trade between the U.S. and Mexico in 2022: 135,000 guns. Investigative journalist Sean Campbell and Topher McDougal, a professor of economic development at the University of San Diego, spent a year combing through multiple databases and court documents and conducting interviews to understand how the flow of guns works. Their investigation reveals where in the U.S. the guns are coming from, what impact these American guns are having in Mexico, and how difficult it is for American law enforcement agencies to prosecute those trafficking guns across the border. Listen to Campbell and McDougal talk about their investigation on The Conversation Weekly podcast. You can read the full investigation here. This episode of The Conversation Weekly was written and produced by Mend Mariwany and Gemma Ware. Mixing and sound design by Eloise Stevens and theme music by Neeta Sarl. Newsclips in this episode from PBS News, CGTN, France24, ABC 7 and NewsNation. Listen to The Conversation Weekly via any of the apps listed above, download it directly via our RSS feed or find out how else to listen here. A transcript of this episode is available on Apple Podcasts. This article is republished from The Conversation, a nonprofit, independent news organization bringing you facts and trustworthy analysis to help you make sense of our complex world. It was written by: Gemma Ware, The Conversation Read more: Guns in America: A liberal gun-owning sociologist offers 5 observations to understand America's culture of firearms Guns bought in the US and trafficked to Mexican drug cartels fuel violence in Mexico and the migration crisis Gun trafficking from the US to Mexico: The drug connection Sean Campbell and Topher McDougal do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations.
Yahoo
15-05-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Could a planet really develop a brain?
When you buy through links on our articles, Future and its syndication partners may earn a commission. The idea that Earth may operate as a single, self-regulating, living organism has existed for decades, emerging in the 1970s as the Gaia hypothesis. In this excerpt from "Gaia Wakes: Earth's Emerging Consciousness in an Age of Environmental Devastation" (Columbia University Press, 2025), economic development and peacebuilding expert Topher McDougal describes how Earth might acquire a planetary brain powered by artificial intelligence (AI) in what he dubs the "Gaiacephalos hypothesis." McDougal argues that this giant, global brain could benefit humanity by boosting the complexity of life on Earth and ultimately secure a more sustainable future. What if our entire planet were to grow a consciousness? The human race finds itself aboard a vessel traversing the vastness of the Milky Way — the Spaceship Earth, as Henry George, Kenneth Boulding, Buckminster Fuller, and others since have so appositely described it. But those thinkers were using the phrase only to evoke the limitations placed on human societies in a relatively closed, steady-state system. They were merely implying that our economies can only grow so far before they come up against the very real resource constraints of our tiny planet floating in the vast emptiness of space. Certainly, the widening scope of environmental devastation humans are wreaking on this planet throws these considerations into stark relief. But what if Spaceship Earth is itself developing (and indeed has already developed much of the infrastructure to support) a single emergent consciousness? I call this idea the "Gaiacephalos hypothesis," in deference to the "Gaia hypothesis" forwarded by James Lovelock, Lynn Margulis, and others, which contends that Earth's interlocking environmental systems could be thought of as a single organism. I argue that the two phenomena associated with Spaceship Earth — first the global environmental devastation we are starting to experience, and second the development of a planetary brain — are two halves of the same process. This process is part of a naturally recurring cycle that has driven the increasing complexity of life on Earth — one that will, with effort, culminate in the emergence of a global AI-powered "brain" capable of coordinating the body planetary. Could a planet really develop a brain? A mind? Would such an outcome be desirable, and could we thwart that development if not? I don't claim to predict what will happen, but rather what could happen. My contention is that Earth may, if we are lucky and diligent and clever enough, grow an emergent superconsciousness. The questions this development would beg range from the practical to the philosophical and even quasi-mystical. For instance: Is life itself a natural and inextricable part of the evolution of the universe? Are there any limits to the scale of life? Is life the process by which the universe comes to know and understand itself? To postulate the growth of a planetary brain may at first sound bizarre, even outlandish. Consequently, many readers may, in an effort to grant me the benefit of the doubt, be tempted to misread this treatise in metaphorical terms. "Perhaps the author means that the Earth has interlocking systems — climatological, ecological, biophysical — that could be thought of as a 'brain' or be likened to a mind." But no, let's eliminate any possibility of confusion: I postulate the growth of an emergent neural network — one whose totality is not designed by humans, even if its initial constituent parts are. This neural network could quite literally enable Earth to achieve unitary consciousness on a massive scale. After the advent of this development, humans would likely continue to play various supporting roles in the life of the planet, but will ultimately find themselves subordinate to and conditioned by a higher intelligence with higher purposes. What would this new mind consist of in tangible, physical terms? Well, microchips, circuits, superconductors and semiconductors, digital storage devices, fiber optic cables, eventually quantum computers — the stuff of electronic processors and communications. In other words, the planetary mind and the brain supporting it would emerge from what geoscientist Peter Haff has termed the "technosphere," the vast panoply of tools we have created to fashion for ourselves a more interconnected world. The planetary brain, if it emerges, would likely arise from AI-enhanced, human-made institutions: technologically sophisticated corporations and the governments regulating them, or what we collectively term "postindustrial economies," themselves increasingly cybernetic. But these interconnected systems and the spectacular potential for information processing they represent operate according to an inherently global logic. As such, a natural scalar synergy exists between high technology and global human institutions, including but not limited to transnational corporations, the United Nations, and transnational social movements. The more extensive the network, the richer its capacities. If they become extensive and fast enough, these systems may, eventually, function together as a brain. And just as in the human brain, where logic may at times war with "gut" instinct, or the need for fresh thinking wrestle with well-laid plans, the decisions made by Gaiacephalos would almost always be the mediated results of discussions, conflicts, and compromises amongst constituent analytical components. The emergence of a planetary mind would not be the first radical scalar upgrade in the complexity of life on Earth. Indeed we have no fewer than four precedents from which to infer the general patterns at work. All previous upgrades have built on the scalar units of their predecessors. All of them have radically increased life's capacity to harness and use energy — in other words, its capacity for entropy. These entropy-maximizing processes oscillate cyclically between episodes of expansion and centralization, growth and coordination. Successful units first begin to predate others, but eventually forge more mutualistic relationships with them as prey becomes scarce. Mutualism yields hierarchical collectives. But these collectives are unwieldy; they require the countervailing formation of centralized information-processing to coordinate their myriad functions. Collectives that succeed in developing coordination apparatuses thrive. In this way, a new, higher-order unit emerges. The first three of Earth's upgrades are studied in biology. They include the emergence of, respectively, prokaryotes, eukaryotes, and brainy multicellular organisms. The fourth of these upgrades is studied in the social sciences, and involves the emergence of centralized states as massively coordinated resource exploiters. As with the brains of multicellular organisms, Earth's brain will be energetically taxing to maintain. But it will also potentially pay great returns, allowing the planet to seek out new sources of energy, while regulating those internal functions that would dispose of the energy waste (heat). And while human-devised forms of organization would (at least initially) set the parameters for the basic structure, it would likely evolve quickly. Its abilities to make quick sense of terabytes of information, identify and anticipate possible problems, find optimal solutions to them, and take appropriate actions will far outstrip the capacities of human institutional apparatuses. At least a few questions confront us under the Gaiacephalos scenario. First, is Earth endowed with the resources necessary to afford a planetary brain? Brains are always energy-intensive organs, and the emergence of the Gaiacephalos, nascent though it may be, has already proved extremely taxing to the body planetary. Larger planets can probably more easily afford to invest in brain development than smaller ones. Do we have the necessary biological capital to support a brain, or will its development prove so costly that the planet falls back to a brainless state? Second, are there smarter policies that we can adopt that can make Gaiacephalos more likely to develop? Third, if we are successful in creating a planetary brain, what would daily life for humans look like? Will we be part of this brain? Or will we have worked ourselves out of a job? Will the planetary intelligence that emerges be inimical to human flourishing? And will our free will be totally overridden by this potential tyrant? And finally, what are the implications of the emergence of a planetary brain for our understanding of the universe and our place in it? RELATED STORIES —Climate wars are approaching — and they will redefine global conflict —Can our brains help prove the universe is conscious? —'We can't answer these questions': Neuroscientist Kenneth Kosik on whether lab-grown brains will achieve consciousness I cannot claim that what I describe will happen. Nor can I even say I believe it is statistically probable. It is for me one analytic possibility of uncertain likelihood. The argument traces a hopeful path into the future, but that hope should not bias our assessments of the path's likelihood of success. But this argument does have the potential to direct our policy actions in order to make this path more likely. In that sense, it might serve as a self-fulfilling prophecy. It is important enough to deserve our attention, and perhaps also our best collective efforts: it may prove preferable to the foreseeable alternatives. It is something to run towards, rather than merely run away from. For those who despair of ever achieving environmental sustainability, it may plot one feasible course toward a version of that end. Excerpted from Gaia Wakes: Earth's Emergent Consciousness in an Age of Environmental Devastation by Topher McDougal (2025) with permission from Columbia University Press. Gaia Wakes: Earth's Emergent Consciousness in an Age of Environmental Devastation Hardcover — $30.00 on Amazon Gaia Wakes presents a compelling new framework for understanding the past, present, and future of our planet. Starting from a strong foundation in economics and drawing on a vast range of multidisciplinary scholarship, Topher McDougal explores the possibility of a fifth transition towards an upgraded Earth: the development of a technologically enabled planetary brain capable of coordinating ecological functions and peering far into the future and Deal
Yahoo
07-05-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Climate wars are approaching — and they will redefine global conflict
When you buy through links on our articles, Future and its syndication partners may earn a commission. Without action, climate change will destabilize society, potentially resulting in wealthy individuals taking matters into their own hands, McDougal argues. . | Credit: JMGehrke/Getty Images Climate change is increasingly recognized not merely as an environmental crisis but as a threat multiplier, worsening political and economic tensions worldwide. Two factors — water scarcity and mass migration — are poised to completely reshape global conflict dynamics. Without coordinated global action, these pressures may induce a vicious circle of interlocking issues: destabilization of livelihoods, unprecedented waves of civil unrest and political violence, mass migration and surging border conflicts. Topher McDougal is Professor of Economic Development & Peacebuilding at the University of San Diego's Kroc School of Peace Studies, where he directs the graduate programs in Peace & Justice and Humanitarian Action. | Credit: Topher McDougal The world is interconnected. A shift in one location will impact another. Fresh water is a resource we all need to survive, and as it dwindles, conflicts can flare. At the same time, rising sea levels and soaring temperatures will make many cities and huge swathes of land uninhabitable. Put together, these human-induced changes will lead to the widespread movement of people into countries that are hell-bent on protecting their resources. In response, governments will likely deploy ever-more sophisticated military technology to protect their own citizens, becoming more insular in the process. Once capitalism is at risk of crumbling, social divides increase, and nations, corporations, or even ultra-wealthy individuals may begin to take matters into their own hands — addressing climate change in a way that benefits them, potentially at the expense of others. Water scarcity Civilizations first emerged along fertile downstream river valleys — the Nile, Tigris, Euphrates and Indus. Nowadays, upstream states increasingly control the water that downstream populations rely upon — and in a warming world, that could fuel explosive conflicts. Consider Iraq: The once-rich agricultural areas near Basra have become increasingly barren due to upstream Turkish dams and accelerating climate change. This scarcity has heightened tensions between Iraq's diverse regions, including the upstream Kurdistan Regional Government (which has proposed adding 245 dams to the governorate), central Baghdad, and the downstream southern populations near Basra. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is a huge hydropower project on the Blue Nile. | Credit: Getty Images Similar conflicts are brewing in the Nile Basin, where Ethiopia's Grand Renaissance Dam has heightened Egypt's anxieties over future water security. While Egypt's recent history of internal unrest has many roots, projected water shortages linked to the dam and increasingly erratic rainfall have amplified fears about food insecurity, unemployment and migration, all of which could compound domestic instability. As global warming accelerates, it's possible that downstream states may clandestinely carry out or finance acts of ecoterrorism against their upstream neighbors, for instance by destroying dams, as Russia did in Ukraine . Closer to home, recent tensions between the United States and Mexico over water rights have spilled over into economic policy. President Donald Trump recently threatened sanctions and tariffs against Mexico over disputes related to water treaties involving the Rio Grande and Colorado rivers, which have had dwindling flow in recent years thanks to climate change. In 2020, conflict began when Mexican government forces sought to release the water in La Boquilla dam in Chihuahua, Mexico, downstream to the United States. They clashed violently with local farmers whose farms would be receiving less water. Mass migration overwhelming borders As hostilities over water grow, climate-driven migration will also fan the flames of conflict in and between countries. After climate-affected people have exhausted all other options for adapting in place, they may resort first to internal migration and then south-to-north mass migrations that may overwhelm national borders. Sea-level rise threatens coastal cities worldwide — including Miami, Venice, Lagos, Jakarta and Alexandria — potentially displacing millions of people and intensifying competition over dwindling livable land and resources. As migration pressures mount, wealthier nations may increasingly militarize their frontiers rather than let in these climate refugees . They are already doing so . Of course, history reveals the limitations of this approach. Rome's sophisticated border fortifications eventually failed as climate change fueled the in-migration of rival groups like the Huns and Goths. To avoid this fate, modern states are going beyond simply building physical barriers; they are also deploying drones , artificial intelligence surveillance and even autonomous defense systems to keep refugees out. Border hardening may go hand-in-hand with policy shifts that mean governments only protect the rights of those who can pay. This shift is already underway. The recent proposal for restructuring the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) into the US International Humanitarian Agency explicitly prioritizes American "taxpayers" and companies rather than its citizens, reflecting a broader global trend toward commodifying citizenship . This trend will worsen inequality, insulating the wealthy from climate change while the poorest suffer. A hard road ahead Effectively addressing these challenges requires strong democratic governance. Democracies that prioritize distributing resources equitably and adapting to climate change are more resilient . Unfortunately, many countries today are backsliding, becoming less democratic and even rolling back climate policies. Recent wildfires in California have been linked to climate change, with reduced rainfall causing increased dryness in the region. | Credit:The potential collapse of insurance markets due to climate impacts, highlighted recently by Allianz, vividly illustrates what will happen if governments fail to adequately respond to climate change. Günther Thallinger , a member of the insurance giant's board, warned that pretty soon the company won't be able to cover climate risks — an impact that will ricochet through financial services. "The financial sector as we know it ceases to function," he wrote in a LinkedIn post. "And with it, capitalism as we know it ceases to be viable." When climate risks make large segments of global assets uninsurable — think entire districts or even cities vulnerable to flooding or wildfire — the foundations of capitalism wobble. Without significant political intervention, these pressures will dramatically widen social divides, fueling migration or even revolutionary movements. The above scenarios could collectively heighten the risk of an often overlooked possibility: one where a single nation or group of nations unilaterally decides to deploy a stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) — a type of geoengineering that, theoretically, reduces the effects of climate change by lowering overall solar radiation entering the atmosphere. However, the effects of such geoengineering strategies on rainfall patterns may inadvertently alter downwind rainfall patterns , or even cause " termination shocks " to temperature when ceased. Related stories —Scientific research is the lifeblood of our economy. Now, a wrecking ball has come. —The US is squandering the one resource it needs to win the AI race with China — human intelligence —'It is a dangerous strategy, and one for which we all may pay dearly': Dismantling USAID leaves the US more exposed to pandemics than ever Middle-income "buffer zone" countries, like Mexico or Turkey, that may be overwhelmed by a surge of migration, could view an SAI as a way of reducing migration pressure. So, too, might democratic countries whose governments want to take action on climate change but can't find a global policy consensus. Craig Martin , co-director of the International and Comparative Law Center at the Washburn University School of Law, and Scott Moore , a University of Pennsylvania political scientist, have described the SAI scenario as a conceivable cause for war , possibly declared by autocratic or oligarchic nations that are negatively affected, or that are looking for excuses to seize resources or territories. To prevent this spiraling scenario of violence, economic disruption and political breakdown, we need urgent, proactive international cooperation. In addition to dramatic climate change prevention efforts, we must include legally binding resource-sharing treaties, humane migration frameworks and collaborative adaptation efforts, where richer nations help poorer ones. Climate change's profound reshaping of conflict dynamics is already underway. The question facing humanity now is not whether we will confront these pressures, but how we will choose to do so: through cooperation and proactive governance or through escalating militarization, inequity and instability. Our collective response today will define the peace and stability of tomorrow's world. Opinion on Live Science gives you insight on the most important issues in science that affect you and the world around you today, written by experts and leading scientists in their field.
Forbes
28-04-2025
- Business
- Forbes
Why Empathy Is More Important Than Control For Leaders In An AI-Driven Future
AI adoption has been moving at breakneck speeds, and workplaces are scrambling to keep up. According to McKinsey research, 78% of organizations now use AI in at least one business function, and use of generative AI doubled from 33% in 2023 to 71% in 2024. Much of today's conversation is focused on immediate changes—how to restructure teams, boost productivity and adapt job functions to align with the latest wave of innovation. But as the pace of change accelerates, it may be a good idea to look even further ahead. What happens when the workplace itself is transformed—when AI becomes more than just a productivity enhancer and begins shaping our underlying social structures? In his upcoming book Gaia Wakes: Earth's Emergent Planetary Consciousness in an Age of Environmental Devastation, out May 22, 2025, Topher McDougal imagines one such future: a scenario in which a distributed planetary intelligence, coordinated through AI, governs ecosystems, economies, and institutions. It's a provocative and optimistic vision that requires leaders to consider their role in preparing humanity to live alongside—and within—complex technological systems. While that future is speculative, the trajectory we're on makes it worth serious consideration. I spoke with McDougal about what today's leaders can learn from this vision in order to prepare for a future where AI is no longer just a tool, but a planetary collaborator. In the world McDougal envisions, human value isn't measured by mental processing speed or task completion. Instead, it hinges on how well we interpret, relate, and care. 'If the Earth is developing a kind of planetary intelligence,' he told me, 'then human roles may shift away from directing systems toward dwelling within them. Our value will come from our ability to attune, mediate, and metabolize.' This idea, which he calls 'neural custodianship,' reframes the future of work entirely. Humans won't be the CEOs of earth's next chapter—we'll be the connective tissue. Translators of meaning and emotional anchors in an increasingly automated world. And while this sounds abstract, it has real implications for how we define leadership today. For decades, emotional intelligence and creative thinking have been labeled soft skills—add-ons to technical competence. But in a future dominated by optimized algorithms, they may become our most competitive advantages. 'In a world increasingly governed by algorithmic logic and predictive efficiency, it's our nonlinear capacities—empathy, creativity, and moral imagination—that become most valuable,' McDougal said. 'These aren't just traits machines can't yet replicate. They are the very capacities that hold organizations together when complexity overwhelms procedure.' Already, we see AI systems filling the roles of friends, therapists, and partners. While some people find comfort in these interactions, others find them hollow. It raises the question: What happens to care when it's simulated? 'Care itself—once the most human of relational acts—may be dissolving into a scripted simulation,' McDougal warned. 'That's not just a technological shift. It's a cultural risk.' In this context, emotional intelligence becomes a necessity—how teams build trust, how organizations process uncertainty, and how humans stay grounded as systems grow beyond our understanding. McDougal believes that future-ready leaders will look less like commanders and more like conductors—guiding complexity through attunement rather than control. He outlined three emerging traits that will define successful leadership in this 'Human+ economy': This shift is already underway. In practice, it may look like embedding AI liaisons into teams, measuring success through alignment rather than output, or designing systems that prioritize risk mitigation over disruption. McDougal also explores the parent-like role of future leaders. In Gaia Wakes, he describes watching his own son grow intellectually beyond him—not as a threat, but as a transformation of his role. His relationship evolved from setting firm boundaries to setting ethical guardrails, offering context, and supporting his autonomy with curiosity and love. He shared that this same parental perspective may one day be true of our relationship to AI. 'The best preparation for a Human+ future is not tighter control, but better mentorship. Corporate leaders become something like co-parents of synthetic consciousness—responsible for providing initial instruction, enforceable norms, and eventually, support for self-authored values.' In an AI-driven future, what we feed into systems determines what they produce. If training data and strategic direction are shaped by narrow worldviews–a very real risk if the teams building AI don't represent the people impacted by it–we risk creating brittle, biased systems that cannot adapt to real-world complexity. 'To preserve the resilience of a planetary intelligence,' McDougal shared, 'we need leadership that elevates cognitive and experiential diversity—across cultures, neurotypes, and ways of knowing. This includes indigenous epistemologies, embodied intuition, speculative imagination, and marginalized perspectives long dismissed as 'noise' in extractive systems.' In other words, an equitable, AI-driven future requires ensuring that the voices shaping AI—and the systems it informs—reflect a full spectrum of human experience. We are currently not on track for that crucial representation, with AI specialists roles being comprised of only 9.1% women and 10.2% Black employees, according to a Zippia report. As McDougal explained it, 'In a world increasingly run on code, difference is not inefficiency. It is how systems learn.' In the face of such rapid technological change, it's tempting to double down on control. But McDougal offers a different path—one of humility, co-creation, and relational wisdom. 'Don't build to dominate,' he said. 'Build to relate. Build to be proud of what comes next.' Leaders who embrace this vision—who prioritize emotional fluency, organizational diversity, and empathetic mentorship—won't just survive the transformation. They'll help raise the future.
