Latest news with #TradeTruce
Time of India
28-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Brent at $50, LNG at $7, 4 mt aluminium demand lost—Tariff tensions could reshape energy and metal markets
New Delhi: Global trade tensions could significantly impact energy markets with oil demand varying by up to 6.9 million barrels per day (b/d) by 2030, depending on the severity of tariffs and geopolitical conditions, Wood Mackenzie said in a report. The energy consultancy outlined three scenarios—Trade Truce, Trade Tensions and Trade War—in its latest report titled Trading cases: Tariff scenarios for taxing times. These scenarios examine the potential outcomes for global GDP, oil and gas prices, metals demand and power sector investments. 'In the Trade Truce scenario, oil demand reaches 108 million b/d by 2030, with Brent averaging US$74/bbl,' the report said. Under the Trade War scenario , oil demand declines after 2026 and Brent crude drops to US$50/bbl. Alan Gelder, Senior Vice President, Refining, Chemicals and Oil Markets at Wood Mackenzie, said, 'Falling oil demand results in the global composite gross refining margin collapsing to break-even levels, creating pressure for the rationalisation of weaker sites, particularly in Europe.' In the global LNG market, the Trade War scenario could intensify the projected oversupply. LNG prices are projected to fall from US$11.2/mmbtu in 2024 to US$7.2/mmbtu by 2030 in the Trade Truce case. Prices may fall further under a Trade War due to reduced Chinese demand and tariffs diverting US cargoes. 'Although tariffs pose downside risks to global LNG supply, it is possible there will be more investments in US LNG,' said Massimo Di Odoardo, Vice President of Gas and LNG Research. The power sector could also be adversely affected by trade uncertainty, particularly in the development of battery storage and renewable technologies. 'Unpredictable project costs are disrupting long-term strategies, particularly in battery storage due to China's supply chain dominance,' said Chris Seiple, Vice Chairman, Power and Renewables. For metals and mining, aluminium demand may decline by nearly 4 million tonnes and copper by 1.2 million tonnes in 2026 under the Trade War scenario, the report noted. Julian Kettle, Vice Chair, Metals and Mining at Wood Mackenzie, said, 'Even in a Trade Truce scenario, we foresee supply issues, while a tariff war could wipe out all projected growth through 2026.' The report concludes that despite recent trade agreements, significant risks remain. Gavin Thompson, Vice Chairman, Energy, Wood Mackenzie, said, 'Lower economic growth will curb energy demand, prices and investment, while higher import prices will raise costs in sectors from battery storage to LNG.'
Zawya
16-05-2025
- Business
- Zawya
European shares set to cap strong week on upbeat earnings
SYDNEY/GDANSK - European stocks looked set to cap a strong week with gains on Friday, as upbeat earnings helped sustain the rally sparked by a U.S.-China trade truce, while oil prices remain relatively low, further supporting stocks and bonds. It has been a positive week for global share markets as investors cheered a tariff truce between the United States and China that greatly reduces the risk of a global recession. Europe's STOXX 600 rose 0.57% on Friday, and was up 1.6% on the week, set for its fifth straight week of gains, helped by luxury group Richemont's 7% climb after it reported strong quarterly sales. MSCI's main gauge of Asia-Pacific stocks ex-Japan rose more than 3% this week, and the S&P500 is up 4.5% so far, with futures pointing to further gains at Friday's open. The U.S. data calendar is lighter for the rest of the day, though there will be the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey and U.S. import prices data for April. However, there was enough uncertainty to keep investors cautious heading into the weekend. "The markets confront a weekend with less risk of carrying open positions than last, with no major trade talks or significant risks on the calendar," said Kyle Rodda, senior analyst at "However, there is always a slight risk-off bias going into the weekend during a Trump presidency, with a nasty downside surprise at the Monday open only ever one social media post away." Oil prices have been choppier this week, rising on the U.S. China deal, before falling sharply on Thursday on increased supply pressure from an OPEC+ output hike and the prospect of an Iranian nuclear deal. Brent futures were down slightly on Friday after a 2% Thursday fall, and were set to end the week just 0.8% higher. Oil prices - low by recent standards - are helping support expectations that inflation is easing, as did U.S. data from Thursday, which did not show any dramatic impact from U.S. tariffs, helping both shares and bonds. U.S. core retail sales were soft and the producer prices fell unexpectedly in April, as markets added to the bets for a total easing of 57 basis points from the Federal Reserve this year, from 49 bps before. "The relief from softer U.S. retail sales and PPI was palpable in the bond market yesterday and overnight," said Kenneth Broux, head of corporate research FX and rates at Societe Generale. "This poured cold water on the (global) bond sell-off and put the brakes on the hawkish repricing of the Fed outlook." The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell 4 basis points to 4.41%, extending a 7-bps drop overnight, and euro zone government bond yields also slid. Of course, it might be just a matter of time before the tariff impact starts to show up in the hard data. Walmart , the world's largest retailer, said it would have to start raising prices later this month due to the high cost of tariffs. Lower U.S. yields left currency traders selling the dollar, if not too dramatically. It was last down 0.27% on the yen at 145.3, while the euro was 0.12% higher at $1.1198. In precious metals, gold prices fell 1.23% to $3,200 an ounce, after rallying 2% overnight. For the week, they are down 3.7%.
Reuters
14-05-2025
- Business
- Reuters
European shares flat as gains from US-China truce pause
May 14 (Reuters) - European shares opened flat on Wednesday as investors took a breather after gains seen earlier this week following the U.S.-China trade truce, while key inflation data from Germany was also in focus. The continent-wide STOXX 600 index (.STOXX), opens new tab was unchanged at 545.31 points as of 07:10 a.m. GMT. The benchmark had logged its fourth consecutive session of gains in the previous session on Tuesday. The week began on a firm note after Beijing and Washington agreed to a 90-day pause on most of the tariffs imposed on each other in April, sparking optimism that a global recession from the trade war may be averted. Meanwhile, data showed German inflation eased further to 2.2% in April, confirming preliminary figures, while Spain's European Union-harmonised 12-month inflation rate fell to 2.2% in March from the period through February. Among individual stocks, luxury firm Burberry (BRBY.L), opens new tab topped expectations as brand sentiment was improving. Its shares were up 7.9%. German chemicals distributor Brenntag ( opens new tab fell 3% after it reported a lower-than-expected quarterly core profit. Vestas ( opens new tab rose 1.2% after Berenberg raised the wind turbine maker to "buy" from "hold"
Reuters
13-05-2025
- Business
- Reuters
European stocks extend gains for fourth day, Bayer soars
May 13 (Reuters) - European stocks edged higher on Tuesday, as positive corporate updates helped keep markets at a six-week high, a day after the United States and China announced a truce in their trade spat. The continent-wide STOXX 600 index (.STOXX), opens new tab rose 0.2% by 0732 GMT, rising for a fourth straight session. Global stocks surged on Monday after Beijing and Washington agreed to a 90-day pause on some of the hefty tariffs imposed earlier in April. Among single stocks, Bayer ( opens new tab jumped 10.8% after it posted a slower decline in first-quarter adjusted earnings than the market had feared as strong prescription numbers for new drugs offset a drop in its soy and cotton seed business. Shares of renewable energy firms Vestas ( opens new tab and Orsted ( opens new tab and Portugal's largest utility EDP ( opens new tab soared, with traders pointing to better-than-expected U.S. proposals for the reconciliation bill. Germany's largest reinsurers, Munich Re ( opens new tab and Hannover Re ( opens new tab, dropped 3.9% and 3.4%, respectively, after they reported sharp declines in first-quarter profit after a combined 1.7 billion euros ($1.89 billion) in claims relating to the Los Angeles wildfires this year.
Bloomberg
13-05-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
Nomura Turns Bullish on China's Stocks After Trade Truce With US
Nomura Holdings Inc. strategists upgraded Chinese stocks to a 'tactical overweight,' saying the trade truce between the US and China is a significant positive for the Asian nation's equities. The agreement to temporarily lower tariffs 'came as a significant surprise for markets, and will likely support risk positivity in the near term,' strategists led by Chetan Seth wrote in a note Tuesday. That would extend a relief rally seen in Chinese stocks in the past month, they added.
