07-05-2025
Mariners Early AL West Favorite Despite Little From Julio Rodriguez
Seattle Mariners' Julio Rodríguez is greeted in the dugout after hitting a home run against the ... More Texas Rangers during the sixth inning of a baseball game Friday, May 2, 2025, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez) Copyright 2025 The Associated Press All Rights Reserved
A couple of common narratives have emerged regarding the recent iterations of the Seattle Mariners ballclub. They're an all-pitch, no-hit team that just can't seem to put a productive offense together. And their ownership group and management seems content with winning 55% or so of their games and being in the hunt, and are reluctant to step up and act like the big market club they should be.
I pretty much agree with the second point. The Mariners' deep, talented starting rotation is built to win now, and if there ever was a time for them to seek impact offensive talent, last winter was the time. Alas, they added only utilityman Donovan Solano, who has done very little to date.
The premise of the first point is somewhat flawed, however. Their offense, even in their disappointing 2024 campaign, was pretty much league average, with its overall performance tamped down a bit by their pitcher-friendly home field, T-Mobile Park. Its one year batted ball-based park factor was an MLB-low 86 in 2024, and it was the only MLB park to have below average singles (98), doubles (86), triples (58) and homer (93) park factors. My 2024 Team True-Talent Rankings, cited in my 2025 season preview, rated the Mariner offense as 16th best. Combined with their 2nd ranked pitching and 4th ranked team defense, the club clearly should have been a playoff team last season.
To wit, despite ranking 29th in team AVG, 15th in OBP and 25th in SLG (and 21st in runs scored), the Mariners fared much better in a bellwether split that I often consult - team production in road games. In 2024, the M's were 20th on the road in AVG, 12th in OBP and 15th in SLG. Not great, but certainly adequate.
Despite his production declining for the third straight season, CF Julio Rodriguez, along with C Cal Raleigh was the centerpiece of this underrated offense. Mariner fans - and myself - believed that with help, the team could have an offense that could be a true asset. Team management instead banked on rebounds from players who slumped in 2024.
And so far that's exactly what has happened. SS JP Crawford looks like the player he was in 2023 - one of the best all-around players in the game at his position. LF Randy Arozarena looks like the player the club thought they acquired at last year's trading deadline. DH Jorge Polanco, a total washout last season in his first year with the club, is cruising along with a .750ish SLG in the early going. Raleigh is finally the legit short-list MVP candidate that he should have been in 2023 and 2024, when he finished 18th and 12th in the voting.
The team is raking on the road, with a .267 (2nd)-.359 (1st)-.429 (3rd) slash line. And they are actually leading the majors in walks (after finishing 4th in 2024).
But the club has gotten very little from their marquee player, Rodriguez, who is crowding the Mendoza Line with a sub-.400 SLG in the early going.
While the 24-year-old has averaged over five WAR per season in his first three major league campaigns, it's fair to say that most prognosticators thought he'd be a little farther along in his development at this stage in his career. Instead, his AVG-OBP-SLG slash line has slid backward in each component category each season, to .273-.325-.409 in 2024. As we speak, he's measurably below each of those numbers again in 2025. Is this indicative of his true talent level, or has he been unlucky, and is now ready to bust out?
My batted ball-based system saw him as properly rated in 2024 - his 115 'Tru' Production+ nearly exactly matched his 116 wRC+. His K/BB profile was uninspiring, with his 25.4% K rate near the top of the league average range and his 6.2% BB rate over a half standard deviation lower. His batted ball profile was a little grounder-heavy (44.3% grounder rate), but his average liner (96.5 mph) and grounder (90.0 mph) exit speeds were both over a full standard deviation above league average. His average fly ball exit speed (91.6 mph) was only in the league average range, however. All in all, he posted a solid 139 Adjusted Contact Score - with improvement in his K/BB profile, more fly balls, and with the ample speed and defensive contributions he offers, you could still see MVP contention in his future.
Thus far in 2025, there are an awful lot of reasons for optimism. His K/BB profile is much improved - his K rate is down to 21.2%, at the other, better side of the league average range, and his BB rate is way up to 10.9%, over a full standard deviation higher. And while his overall average exit speed is down a tad (from 91.7 to 91.5 mph), he is hitting his fly balls an awful lot average fly ball exit speed has spiked to 95.2 mph, over a standard deviation above league average. He's been very unlucky on fly balls, due in part to his suppressive home park. In fact, he's been unlucky on ball batted ball types, with huge disparities between his Unadjusted and Adjusted Contact Scores with regard to fly balls (83 vs. 148), line drives (85 vs. 117) and grounders (88 vs. 125). Overall, he has an 82 Unadjusted and 126 Adjusted Contact Score.
Negatives? Well, his main negative is actually kind of a positive. His 2025 liner rate is way down at 15.5%. Liner rates tend to be quite volatile, so I would expect his to regress upward as the season unfolds.
Overall, Rodriguez 'should be' hitting .257-.340-.463 for 128 'Tru' Production+, way above his 103 wRC+, through Monday's games. Does that fully support what we thought Rodriguez would become when he signed his 12-year, $209.3 million contract in the summer of 2022? Perhaps not. But that, combined with his speed and defense, would deserve plenty of down-ballot MVP support.
And that also offsets the likely imminent regression of certainly Polanco and perhaps others toward league average as the season plays out. The AL West is ripe for the Mariners' taking. Though the pitching staff has taken a baby step backward with the injuries to stars Logan Gilbert (forearm strain) and George Kirby (shoulder inflammation), the Astros just aren't the same without Alex Bregman or Kyle Tucker, the Rangers seemingly just can't hit, it's not yet the Athletics' time, and the Angels are…..well, the Angels.
They just need to get to the postseason, and get their pitching staff healthy. Then they'd be a tough out for any club. Of all the playoff-seeking teams, the Dodgers, Mariners and Phillies stand apart as teams with rotation depth that could go the distance. With players like Rodriguez and Raleigh leading the way, their position player group also could be better than 'good enough'.
