Latest news with #Trump1
New York Post
4 days ago
- Business
- New York Post
Why TikTok will likely get another lifeline as sell-or-ban deadline looms
Bipartisan critics of keeping TikTok operating in the US simply have too much other stuff on their plate to muster a fight should President Trump once again extend the deadline for the Chinese-owned app to divest in the US, On The Money has learned. That's the word from sources close to the White House and key figures in Congress who have debated whether TikTok should go dark in a couple weeks over concerns it's essentially spyware for the Chinese Communist Party in its quest for global domination. As On The Money reported on Tuesday, here are the scenarios of TikTok's short-term fate: A Wall Street banker involved in the deal to sell the app to US investors said Trump could be persuaded to let TikTok 'go dark' and disappear from app stores on June 19 if he believes it will give him a strategic advantage in the complex and at times acrimonious trade deal negotiations with the Chinese. Trump really loves the app (he thinks it helped get him elected in 2024 no matter how much it's spying on us). Jack Forbes/NY Post Design But more likely is that he throws TikTok yet another lifeline, sources say. Trump really loves the app (he thinks it helped get him elected in 2024 no matter how much it's spying on us). He is poised to extend the TikTok ban deadline – for the third time – as the White House and China prepare to hold trade talks, which are in their nascent stages with Trump speaking directly with China President Xi Jinping by phone on Thursday. Plus, there might not be that much pushback as there was in the past. Another extension could happen without much of a fuss because Congress – including its bipartisan TikTok haters – is probably too distracted with the Big Beautiful Bill, pruning excesses amid criticism from none-other-than Elon Musk, extending the Trump 1 tax cuts and the China-US trade talks to really lose that much sleep if Trump does extend, they say. 'There's an 80% probability it gets a 75-day extension and stays lit up,' said one Wall Street executive who is part of the on-going Trump-led negotiation to save TikTok from disappearing through a deal that will transform its ownership to majority US hands. 'Apparently, it dropped to the list of issues on the China negotiations, and the tax bill has sucked the oxygen out of the room.' The White House had no comment. Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2019. REUTERS TikTok, through its Beijing-based parent company ByteDance, has long denied it is a surveillance tool for the CCP, but doubts abound. Trump, of course, wasn't always a TikTok lover. He sought its ban back during his first term. The app went dark for a few hours after the divest-or-ban law, signed by former President Joe Biden, went into effect Jan. 19. But it got a reprieve when Trump signed the first extension with an executive order after returning to the White House. He then gave TikTok another lifeline in April as a deal to put TikTok into the hands of a majority-owned US company was nearing the finish line, as On The Money previously reported. However, that was throttled by Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariff war that was particularly tough on China, one of our biggest trading partners, but a global adversary that doesn't open its markets to US companies looking to sell stuff on the Mainland and tap into its growing consumer market. The consortium of private sector players, if the deal is completed, will be led by tech giant Oracle, founded by Trump friend and supporter Larry Ellison.
Time of India
6 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Dixon, Florence see silver lining in Trump's tariffs
PARIS: They are a study in contrast: One is an electronics goods maker, the other a footwear manufacturer. One has its base in Chennai, the other up North. But, both are focusing on ramping up at breakneck speed, hoping to cash in on overseas players seeking to tap India, not just for its domestic market but also for exports, especially after Trump's tariffs. Tired of too many ads? go ad free now The other similarity is scale. Electronics goods supplier Dixon Technologies, which has been busy with tie-ups to manufacture phones, laptops and consumer durables, is seeing a huge uptick in export orders from the US as countries seek to reduce reliance on China. "Indian market is around $40 billion, the US has imports of around $80 billion. In the next few years, we see a $100 billion export opportunity in the US and EU," said Dixon Technologies chairman Sunil Vachani. If it is smartphones that have seen a massive surge in production, it will be laptops in the next few years as companies look to first meet the domestic demand before venturing into exports, he said. "We missed the opportunity during Trump 1, when Indian companies were not ready. But now we have built scale, we are designing our own products. We have a foot in the door, and we will be like Vietnam in a few years once the component ecosystem is also developed," Vachani added. In Chennai, Florence Shoe Company chairman Aqueel Panaruna, whose family was in the leather footwear business, is manufacturing a million pair of sports shoes for one of the top global brands. His company is also a joint venture partner with Hong Fu, the world's second largest sports shoes maker for the likes of Nike and Adidas, to set up a $300 millon plant that can produce 10 million pairs of shoes. While the new quality control norms on footwear has driven global majors to eye more production in India, the shift began soon after Covid, with who's who of sports shoes, from Nike, Adidas, Puma and New Balance, tying up with local players to meet global and domestic demand. Tired of too many ads? go ad free now For Florence, the challenge in recent years has been the growing dependence on the US, which now accounts for around 80% of its exports, compared to 25% a decade ago. Trump's tariffs have added a 10% additional burden, with shoes now attracting up to 30% customs duty. But Panaruna is not worried. He is in fact banking on the trade deals with the US, UK and EU offering possibilities for more sourcing from India. "If the Hong Fu experience is good, we may see some of the factories shift from Vietnam to India," he said. "With displays and camera modules to be produced in India, value addition in mobiles could rise from 17-18% to around 40% in the next two-three years, nearing China's level of 50-55%," Vachani said.
Axios
27-04-2025
- Business
- Axios
Trump ready to bail out farmers amid trade war squeeze, Rollins says
President Trump is prepared to bail out American farmers if the trade war continues squeezing commodity exports, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said Sunday. Why it matters: Exports of key commodities are plunging, particularly soybean and pork sales to China, threatening tens of billions of dollars in farm income. What they're saying: "First of all, the prayer is that that doesn't need to happen — but secondly, if it does, for the short term, just as in Trump 1, we are preparing for that," Rollins told CNN's "State of the Union" on Sunday. Catch up quick: In Trump's first term, amid a smaller trade war with China, the government rolled out tens of billions of dollars in farm subsidies. Those bailouts, collectively, ended up being so large that they almost equaled the tariff revenue generated. The intrigue: Agriculture consultants and economists tell Axios that farmers don't necessarily want bailouts — they want trade certainty so they can harvest and sell their crops. "Trade aid isn't going to be farmers' first choice for a solution of all this, farmers prefer to earn their money from the markets," American Soybean Association economist Jacquie Holland said this week. The bottom line: Rollins said it would probably be a few months before any need for aid was evident.
Yahoo
12-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Wall Street is getting cut out of Trump 2.0
Lately, on Twitter/X/whatever you want to call it these days, there's been a noticeable uptick in nostalgia for Steven Mnuchin, the treasury secretary during President Donald Trump's first term. "Come back Steve Mnuchin I miss you Steve Mnuchin," one user wrote in early March. "Steve Mnuchin was the best Trump 1 cabinet member. It almost makes up for suicide squad," wrote another. "Mnuchin was probably the most competent cabinet appointment of the last 3 administrations and I'm not sure it's particularly close," wrote another. "Mnuchin didn't do anything mental and now he's viewed with nostalgia," wrote another. Mnuchin's four years in the administration were busy: He shepherded through the tax cut bill in 2017, warning before the legislation's passage that stocks would crash if it didn't get the go-ahead. When COVID-19 swept in, he was instrumental in striking a deal with Congress to deliver economic relief. Throughout his tenure, he kept everybody calm about the debt ceiling. On a lighter note, he and his super-beautiful wife, Louise Linton, posed for photos with the sheet of dollar bills that got them compared to James Bond villains — an outrage that seems quaint in this day and age. In Trump 1.0, the New York City-born financier served as a sort of Wall Street whisperer in the White House. Mnuchin was the guy who reassured markets everything was going to be all right. He was one of the adults in the room, a serious person whose presence emanated seriously good outcomes, business-wise. (He's so serious, in fact, that he's always Steven, never Steve, and will correct people if they screw it up.) With the markets currently in meltdown mode, largely thanks to Trump, Mnuchin (or a Mnuchin type) is someone many on Wall Street would very much like to have back. They'd like a Mnuchin-esque Money Dad to come tuck them in at night and tell them not to worry about big bad tariffs or a potential recession hiding underneath the bed. In the absence of such a figure, investors are facing a Trump 2.0 who isn't as concerned about their feelings — or, more importantly, holdings — as they'd hoped. He's listening to Silicon Valley a lot more than he is Wall Street, to the extent he's listening to anyone. Sure, Trump's got a new Wall Street-attached treasury secretary, hedge funder Scott Bessent, but investors are still figuring out how to measure him. He just defended tariffs by saying cheap goods aren't part of the American dream. In the internet's collective imagination, Steven Mnuchin would never. Wall Street's approach to Trump has long had an element of wishful thinking to it. Yes, the president likes to tell people their stocks are going to go up, and of course, the Republican Party's bent toward low taxes and deregulation is something the business community favors. But the thing about Trump is that he says and believes a lot of things, and not all of his ideas are music to investors' ears, especially lately. The Trump administration's order of operations this time around may not be so favorable to the stock market or economy in the short term. He's focused on tariffs and has been announcing, delaying, and reinstating them at a breakneck pace. When he was elected, many observers believed tariffs were largely going to be a negotiation tactic. Six weeks into his presidency, it's becoming clear he means business, even if the exact details of said business remain TBD. "We're in a different environment in Trump 2 than Trump 1, and I think one of the differences is that there's more broad agreement on the use of protectionist policies, even by the so-called Wall Street voices," Josh Lipsky, the senior director of the Atlantic Council's GeoEconomics Center, said. "In the first administration, they didn't even start talking about tariffs seriously until a year in." What's happening now is you've got animal spirits meeting up with the realities of policy on the ground. As markets have started to flash warning signs about the tariff whiplash, the Trump administration's response has been a bit of a shrug. In his address to a joint session of Congress last week, the president acknowledged tariffs would cause a "little disturbance" but said, "We're OK with that." In a subsequent interview with Fox News, he wouldn't close the door on a possible recession, saying, "I hate to predict things like that." Bessent recently told CNBC that maybe the economy is "starting to roll a little bit" and predicted a "detox period" as the government slows its spending. After Trump's recession hedge, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said there won't be a recession in America — but Lutnick's also been tasked with trying to explain the daily flip-flops on tariffs, which seems to have undercut Wall Street's faith in his pronouncements. Besides tariffs, Trump is looking to move fast on immigration and deportations, another check in the negative column for many businesses. The same goes for the chaos DOGE is creating. Oh, and did I mention there's perhaps a government shutdown on the horizon? "What's happening now is you've got animal spirits meeting up with the realities of policy on the ground," Gregory Faranello, the head of US rates trading and strategy for AmeriVet Securities, said. "If you look at the total pool and bucket of everything that's going on right now, it's uncertainty." The uncertainty probably won't last forever, but right now, it's got a lot of people on edge. The S&P 500 is down by 5% since the start of the year, and the Dow by 3%. Many smart people did not expect to be in "don't-look-at-your-401(k)" territory this early in Trump's second term, if at all. "Capricious policies are likely to freeze any kind of capital investment or business activity," said Jack Ablin, the chief investment officer and founding partner of Cresset Capital. "And that's problematic in an economy that appears to be slowing." It's not necessarily the case that Trump 2.0 doesn't care at all about Wall Street; he just seems to care about a lot of other things more. The White House contends that while tariffs, for example, might be a pain in the near term, they're necessary to revamp the economy over the long haul. Trump 2.0 is "much more holistic on what they're looking at to define success," Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Wealth, said. Bessent seems quite focused on the bond market and 10-year Treasurys, specifically, believing lower bond yields might help boost the housing market. He has characterized tariffs as a "one-time price adjustment" and brushed off concerns about inflation in his defense of the administration's trade strategy. "I guess the question is, OK, holistically, you have a 7% decline in the stock market. From their perspective, that may be OK relative to these other things which are priorities for them and will make the US economy more competitive," Lerner said. "The question that no one knows is what's the pain threshold?" The problem with opening the door to a small recession or adjustment period is that once a downturn has begun, there's no control over what happens. The assumption has long been that the markets would check Trump's worst impulses (or a Mnuchin-like figure who would hammer home what's going on in the markets). Right now, the checkpoint isn't clear. Bessent seems to be aligned with the president's protectionist stance, and Wall Street doesn't find him to be a particularly soothing force. "The Street is not comfortable yet with Bessent and Lutnick, and that's been an overhang and issue for the markets in the near term," Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, said in an email. After the stock market's meltdown on Monday, the White House released a statement from an unnamed official arguing that Wall Street fears aren't necessarily reflective of what's happening in the real economy. "Want to emphasize that we're seeing a strong divergence between animal spirits of the stock market and what we're actually seeing unfold from businesses and business leaders, and the latter is obviously more meaningful than the former on what's in store for the economy in the medium to long term," the official said. But many businesses are not having a good time trying to decipher all the policy uncertainty. The problem with opening the door to a small recession or adjustment period is that once a downturn has begun, there's no control over what happens. "Recessions are their own beasts," Kevin Gordon, a senior investment strategist at Charles Schwab, said. "They could take on a pretty strong position in terms of changing the trajectory of the economy. So it's certainly something I'd say be careful what you wish for." Despite the upheaval, Wall Street still has things to be excited about in the Trump administration — but the sugar high is wearing off a bit, and some less favorable realities are setting in. For one thing, some of the thrilling stuff the administration is expected to deliver is not that thrilling — namely, the tax bill. Many of the provisions in Trump's 2017 tax bill are set to expire this year. Trump and the GOP-led Congress are highly likely to pass a new bill to extend most of them. For corporations and individuals, the extension is good in the sense that their tax bills won't go up. But it's not as great as it was in 2017 when they got a massive new cut. Keeping the 2017 law is "just extending the status quo," Gordon said, "so there is no additional stimulus that comes from that." It's kind of like buying a second pair of the same pants you like because they fit well and are durable — they're nice to have, but they don't deliver the same little burst of endorphins you got when you discovered the first pair. And the tax cut legislation is still months away. In the meantime, investors are being hit with daily headlines about all the less-business-friendly stuff Trump wants to do. It's like having to pay a bunch of medical bills while waiting for that pair of pants to get delivered. "I think the sequencing is definitely important," Gordon said. "You're front-loading all of the tariffs and immigration risks this time, and you don't necessarily get the added juice from the fiscal side. I would argue you get none of it." This belated Mnuchin mania is the manifestation of broader anxieties about the Trump administration and a recognition that this time really is different. Trump is moving faster and breaking things quicker. He feels like he has a mandate. He's bringing more true believers with him. Remember that supposed "committee to save America" of people surrounding Trump to rein him in back in 2017? They are not invited to the party this time. Remember that supposed "committee to save America" of people surrounding Trump to rein him in back in 2017? They are not invited to the party this time. "Scott Bessent has Wall Street experience, but he doesn't seem particularly comfortable in how he talks about what it is that the administration's trying to achieve. What is the nonpartisan basis for it? What is the sort of substantive case?" said Skanda Amarnath, the executive director of Employ America, an economic advocacy group. "Everyone who's currently picked is really indexing even further on loyalty, but that does come at the expense of being credible in an economic markets context." To be sure, there's some rose-colored glasses stuff going on with the way many people think of Trump 1.0, at least money-wise. The S&P 500 was up for most of his first term, but it wasn't a smooth ride; the index ended 2018 down by 6.24%. The US had a mild manufacturing recession in 2019. Many people in Trump's first administration were just as loyal to the president as those in the second administration. And ultimately, he was always the one in charge. It's not like Steven Mnuchin or Gary Cohn or Rex Tillerson were running around willy-nilly doing whatever to make sure the Dow was up for the day. Like everyone in human history, Mnuchin's record is mixed (and would get vastly different scores, depending on who you ask). He reportedly pushed for Trump to select Jerome Powell for Federal Reserve chair, whom many in finance and economics would agree was a sound choice. When the economy spiraled because of the pandemic, he was a key negotiator in getting legislative support across the finish line. He also advocated for a tax bill that added to the deficit and disproportionately benefited corporations and the wealthy. And you have to admit that posing with the sheet of dollars was a little gauche, even if anyone in their right mind would have done the same thing. "He was pragmatic," Amarnath said. "He also had a certain credibility with the markets and political actors on the other side of the aisle" The good news, all you Mnuchin heads, is he may be gone, but not forgotten. Back in November, he told Reuters that while he wasn't planning on joining the new Trump administration, he's "happy to advise from the outside." So, Steven, maybe call Scott. Emily Stewart is a senior correspondent at Business Insider, writing about business and the economy. Read the original article on Business Insider
The Guardian
27-01-2025
- Business
- The Guardian
European capitals tread cautiously after week of mixed salvoes from Trump
European leaders had nearly got to the end of the first week of living with Donald Trump back in the White House, with the sole consoling thought that it might have been worse. But then the re-elected and reinvigorated president started talking about Greenland again. Any hope that the US acquisition of the autonomous arctic territory from Denmark was just a passing whim was dispelled by his insistence over the weekend that 'I think we're going to have it', amid reports that he had threatened Copenhagen with targeted tariffs, an extortion campaign against a close Nato ally. 'In Trump 1, it was this weird thing, that he was going to buy Greenland, but this time there is more clarity,' said Nathalie Tocci, the director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali thinktank in Italy, said. 'He has said he is ready to use economic and military coercion to take it.' Prior to that, European capitals could point to a few glints of consolation from Trump's barnstorming first few days. While he railed against the US trade deficit, Trump did not immediately announce tariffs on European goods (although he made clear they were coming) and his first move on Ukraine was to put pressure on Vladimir Putin. His demand that European Nato allies spend 5% of GDP on defence was so unrealistic it was not taken seriously, and, for now, the president has muted earlier threats to walk out of the alliance. 'Nobody thinks he's going to actually do that,' said Leslie Vinjamuri, the director of the US and Americas programme at the Chatham House thinktank. 'His nominees are mostly solidly onboard with Nato, and he has gone silent on the threat of withdrawal.' In response to these mixed early salvoes, Europe has trod cautiously. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, did not even mention Trump by name. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, and Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor, met in Paris on Wednesday to project a unified front at the EU's core, and calm in the face of Trump's so far vague – but determined – tariff threat to Europe. Scholz admitted that Trump would be a 'challenge' but he added: 'Our position is clear. Europe is a large economic area with around 450 million citizens. We are strong. We stand together. Europe will not duck and hide.' Macron looked to the silver lining that the new administration in Washington would make it more necessary than ever for Paris and Berlin to consolidate 'a united, strong and sovereign Europe'. Europe at the moment does not feel any of those things. Macron and Scholz are in weak positions domestically. The German chancellor is likely to be in his last few weeks in office as the country approaches elections on 23 February. Across the continent, the far right is on the rise, offering itself as an ally to Trump in undermining such European cohesion. The most established among the hard-right leaders, the Hungarian prime minister, Viktor Orbán, hailed the Trump inauguration as a tipping point in the struggle for Europe's soul. 'Hereby I launch the second phase of the offensive that aims to occupy Brussels,' Orbán said. Another ultra-nationalist, the Italian prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, was the only European leader invited to Trump's inauguration. He has hailed her as a 'fantastic woman' and she has presented herself as a transatlantic bridge to the new administration and Europe – 'consolidating the dialogue between the United States and Europe'. Some of Meloni's fellow European leaders hope that she can leverage Trump's fondness for her and her politics to soften his approach to the whole continent. Italy has a lot to lose from a hostile Washington, with a €42.1bn ($43.6bn) trade surplus with the US, the second highest in the EU after Germany, and defence spending well below the current goal of 2% GDP. What influence Meloni might have on Trump is very much in question, however. She was not given a hoped-for private meeting with the new president when she was in Washington. 'It is just naive to believe that a nationalist Eurosceptic will all of a sudden become the sort of spokeswoman for Europe, rather than being Trump's spokeswoman in Europe,' Tocci said. Trump's return to Washington has also underlined the UK's vulnerability outside the EU, with London's threat of retaliatory sanctions far less of a deterrent than Europe combined. 'The EU is probably big enough to protect itself from Trump's tariffs. I'm not convinced the UK is,' Anand Menon, European politics professor at King's College London, said. 'In a way, one of the things that Trump shows us is that outside of the European Union, the UK finds itself quite exposed in these troubled times,' Menon told a London School of Economics blog. The UK prime minister, Keir Starmer, played down the fact that he was not invited to the inauguration alongside Trump favourites Meloni and the Argentinian president, Javier Milei. A Conservative predecessor, the former prime minister Boris Johnson, was the only British politician inside the Capitol Rotunda for the ceremony. The Reform leader, Nigel Farage, attended inauguration parties where Republicans hailed him as Britain's 'future prime minister'. While the phrase 'special relationship' is unlikely to have much usage in the coming months, Downing Street insisted Starmer congratulated Trump on his inauguration and noted that the two leaders had spoken several times before it. Further complicating an already fraught situation, it is hard for western European capitals to know whether they are dealing with just Trump or a Trump-Musk administration. Britain and the EU have legislation regulating social media platforms that could seriously affect Elon Musk and X. The UK's Online Safety Act is in the process of being codified, and would penalise X if it fails to take down illegal material. Concerns are felt across Europe that attempts to regulate X and other US-based platforms will lead to reprisals from a Trump administration, but Vinjamuri believes that X, with its relentless promotion of the far right, is too big a threat to ignore. 'I don't think Europe has any alternative but to push back against Musk and to do something about trying to counter this very powerful technological platform,' she said. Spain's socialist prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, has offered Trump polite though hardly effusive congratulations on his inauguration. But he spoke out sharply about Musk. 'The owner of a small restaurant is responsible if their food poisons customers; social media tycoons should be held responsible if their algorithms poison our society, Sánchez, adding his own twist on the Trump own mantra. 'Let's take back control. Let's make social media great again.' Trump's merger with Musk is not the only reason his second term looks more threatening as seen from Europe than the first. It is also the fact his leadership is no longer seen as an aberration, and at a time when Europe's own cohesion is waning. 'Trump 1 was really perceived as this blip in history, whereas now Trump 2 has all the flavour of ongoing regime change in the United States,' Tocci said. 'That has very deep implications for Europe.'
