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Poland on a knife's edge as exit poll shows a near tie in presidential runoff
Poland on a knife's edge as exit poll shows a near tie in presidential runoff

Arab News

time3 days ago

  • Business
  • Arab News

Poland on a knife's edge as exit poll shows a near tie in presidential runoff

WARSAW, Poland: Exit polls in Poland's presidential runoff on Sunday showed the two candidates in a statistical tie with the race still too close to call in the deeply divided nation. The results could set the course for the nation's political future and its relations with the European Union. A first exit poll showed liberal Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski with a slight lead over conservative historian Karol Nawrocki, but two hours later an updated 'late poll' showed Nawrocki winning 50.7 percent, more than Trzaskowski with 49.3 percent The polls have a margin of error and it was still not clear who the winner was. Claims of victory amid uncertainty Though the final result was still unclear with the two locked in a near dead heat, both men claimed to have won in meetings with their supporters in Warsaw. 'We won,' Trzaskowski told his supporters to chants of 'Rafał, Rafał.' 'This is truly a special moment in Poland's history. I am convinced that it will allow us to move forward and focus on the future,' Trzaskowski said. 'I will be your president.' Nawrocki, speaking to his supporters at a separate event in Warsaw, said he believed he was on track to win. 'We will win and save Poland,' he said. 'We must win tonight.' The final results were expected Monday. A divided country The decisive presidential runoff pitted Trzaskowski, a liberal pro-EU politician, against Nawrocki, a conservative historian backed by the right-wing Law and Justice party and aligned with US conservatives, including President Donald Trump. The fact that it was so close underlined how deep the social divisions have become in Poland. The outcome will determine whether Poland takes a more nationalist path or pivots more decisively toward liberal democratic norms. With conservative President Andrzej Duda completing his second and final term, the new president will have significant influence over whether Prime Minister Donald Tusk's centrist government can fulfill its agenda, given the presidential power to veto laws. 'We will not allow Donald Tusk's grip on power to be completed,' Nawrocki said. The runoff follows a tightly contested first round of voting on May 18, in which Trzaskowski won just over 31 percent and Nawrocki nearly 30 percent, eliminating 11 other candidates. Katarzyna Malek, a 29-year-old voter in Warsaw, cast her ballot in the first round for a left-wing candidate but went for Trzaskowski on Sunday, viewing him as more competent and more likely to pursue stronger ties with foreign partners and lower social tensions. 'I hope there will be less division, that maybe there will be more dialogue,' she said. The campaign has highlighted stark ideological divides. Trzaskowski, 53, has promised to restore judicial independence, ease abortion restrictions and promote constructive ties with European partners. Nawrocki, 42, has positioned himself as a defender of traditional Polish values and skeptical of the EU. Allegations against Nawrocki Nawrocki's candidacy has been clouded by allegations of past connections to criminal figures and participation in a violent street battle. He denies the criminal links but acknowledges having taken part in 'noble' fights. The revelations have not appeared to dent his support among right-wing voters, many of whom see the allegations as politically motivated. 'We managed to unite the entire patriotic camp in Poland, the entire camp of people who want a normal Poland, want a Poland without illegal migrants, a safe Poland. We managed to unite all those who want social, community security,' Nawrocki said. It was an apparent reference to those who supported far-right candidates in the first round and who supported him on Sunday. Some of those voting for Nawrocki in Warsaw dismissed the allegations against him, saying he shouldn't be punished for his past and that Trzaskowski has also made mistakes as mayor. Władysława Wąsowska, an 82-year-old former history teacher, recalled instilling patriotism in her students during the communist era, when Poland was under Moscow's influence. 'I'm a right-wing conservative. I love God, the church and the homeland,' she said, explaining that Nawrocki for her is the only patriotic choice now, and accusing Trzaskowski of serving foreign interests. 'He's controlled by Germany,' she said. 'I want a sovereign, independent, democratic Poland — and a Catholic one.' International echoes Amid rising security fears over Russia's war in neighboring Ukraine, both candidates support aid to Kyiv, though Nawrocki opposes NATO membership for Ukraine, while Trzaskowski supports it in the future. Nawrocki's campaign has echoed themes popular on the American right, including an emphasis on traditional values. His supporters feel that Trzaskowski, with his pro-EU views, would hand over control of key Polish affairs to larger European powers like France and Germany. Many European centrists rooted for Trzaskowski, seeing in him someone who would defend democratic values under pressure from authoritarian forces across the globe.

Exit polls in Poland's presidential run-off show race too close to call
Exit polls in Poland's presidential run-off show race too close to call

BreakingNews.ie

time4 days ago

  • Business
  • BreakingNews.ie

Exit polls in Poland's presidential run-off show race too close to call

Exit polls in Poland's presidential run-off showed the two candidates in a statistical tie with the race still too close to call in the deeply divided nation. The results could set the course for the nation's political future and its relations with the European Union. Advertisement A first exit poll showed liberal Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski with a slight lead over conservative historian Karol Nawrocki, but two hours later an updated 'late poll' showed Mr Nawrocki winning on 50.7%, with Mr Trzaskowski on 49.3%. The polls have a margin of error and it was still not clear who was the winner. Presidential candidate Rafal Trzaskowski greets supporters (Petr David Josek/AP) Though the final result was still unclear with the two locked in a near dead heat, both men claimed to have won in meetings with their supporters in Warsaw. 'We won,' Mr Trzaskowski told supporters at his election night event. Advertisement 'This is truly a special moment in Poland's history. I am convinced that it will allow us to move forward and focus on the future. I will be your president.' Mr Nawrocki, speaking to his supporters at a separate event in Warsaw, said he believed he was on track to win. 'We will win and save Poland,' he said. 'We must win tonight.' The final results are expected on Monday. Advertisement Presidential candidate Karol Nawrocki is a conservative historian (Czarek Sokolowski/AP) The decisive presidential run-off pitted Mr Trzaskowski, a liberal pro-EU figure, against Mr Nawrocki, a conservative historian backed by the right-wing Law and Justice party and aligned with US conservatives, including President Donald Trump. The fact that it was so close underlined how deep the social divisions have become in Poland. The outcome will determine whether Poland takes a more nationalist path or pivots more decisively towards liberal democratic norms. With conservative President Andrzej Duda completing his second and final term, the new president will have significant influence over whether Prime Minister Donald Tusk's centrist government can fulfil its agenda, given the presidential power to veto laws. Advertisement 'We will not allow Donald Tusk's grip on power to be completed,' Mr Nawrocki said. The run-off follows a tightly contested first round of voting on May 18, in which Mr Trzaskowski won just over 31% and Mr Nawrocki nearly 30%, eliminating 11 other candidates.

Poland heading for political uncertainty after presidential election run-off
Poland heading for political uncertainty after presidential election run-off

Irish Times

time4 days ago

  • General
  • Irish Times

Poland heading for political uncertainty after presidential election run-off

Poland is heading for a period of political uncertainty after Sunday's presidential run-off ended in a photo finish. Early projections suggested a gap of just 70,000 votes with a record turnout of nearly 73 per cent among Poland's 29 million registered voters. Pro- EU candidate Rafal Trzaskowski, backed by the ruling government of Donald Tusk , had the narrowest of leads after polls closed, with 50.3 per cent. Just 0.6 points behind him in the same TVP public broadcaster exit poll was Karol Nawrocki, backed by the opposition national conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party, polling 49.7 per cent. READ MORE A separate exit poll for private broadcaster TVN put the gap at just 0.3 points. With a margin of error in both polls of 2 per cent, the initial result was too close to call. Despite that, the government-backed Trzaskowski appeared minutes after polls closed to claim: 'We won, we did everything that could be done.' 'I will be the president of all Poles — of all Polish women and men,' he added. There was no hint of concession over in the rival camp, however, with Karol Nawrocki promising eventual victory to supporters who cheered 'President Narwocki Nawrocki' and 'We won'. 'This night will be ours yet,' he said. 'We managed to unite the patriotic camp in Poland, the camp of people who want a normal Poland without illegal immigrants.' Analysts say the final result, not likely until Monday, is likely to be decided by the non-resident vote – and possibly face challenge in the courts from the loser. In the first round, two weeks ago, Trzaskowski was shocked to finish just two points ahead – but took comfort from scoring six points higher among non-resident voters than his overall result. Meanwhile Nawrocki's popularity among the US Polish diaspora was 12 points above his final result, after he was endorsed by President Donald Trump during a White House visit. While Polish prime minister Donald Tusk remained silent on Sunday night, Nawrocki's leading backer, PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski, praised his candidate for prevailing against a 'Niagara of lies' from rivals and the media. 'We have won because we are right,' he said, 'because we speak the truth about Poland, about its future, about its present and about all that's wrong in our country today.' Former president Bronislaw Komorowski compared the result to his win in 2010 with a five-point lead. 'Based on exit polls I had a guaranteed win, overnight the numbers changed several times but eventually I won,' he said. The vote reflects deep divisions in this country of almost 38 million and reflects the challenges ahead for Donald Tusk. The centrist-liberal pro-EU prime minister returned to power in December 2023 with a mandate to roll back PiS polices, from illegal court reforms to a near-ban on abortion. But the outgoing, PiS-allied outgoing president Andrzej Duda proved a strong adversary, vetoing key government legislation. Complicating Tusk's political day-to-day still further is his unwieldy coalition, including farmers and urban liberals, who have clashed over policies such as abortion liberalisation. Another term with a PiS-alled president, Tusk knows, would be a political disaster: hobbling his national legislative ambition, complicating EU relations and making a snap election likely. The tight result on Sunday revived doubts – and finger-pointing over Rafal Trzaskowski's suitability as a candidate, five years after his first failed attempt to take the presidency. Back then he ran as an opposition candidate, tapping into growing unhappiness with the then PiS government and its presidential incumbent. This time around he became a focus for voters frustrated with the Tusk administration. The 53-year-old Trzaskowski cut his political teeth as a teenage volunteer in Poland's first partially-free elections in 1989. As a multilingual political professional with a pro-EU and LGBT-supportive agenda, he was the perfect big-city liberal for PiS scare campaigns about shadowy elites in their rural, conservative heartland. Even among his own supporters in Warsaw, where Trzaskowski has served as mayor for seven years, he has a mixed reputation. One senior political ally accused Trzaskowski last night of running a 'lazy, arrogant campaign' with confused and contradictory messaging. At a mass rally in Warsaw a week ago Trzaskowski made his final pitch to voters as 'a president who unites, who is ready to talk to everyone'. But first-round analysis showed how his promises to push for an end to what he called Poland's 'medieval' abortion laws, and to introduce same-sex civil partnerships, put him beyond the pale for more conservative Poles in eastern and south-eastern regions. Here Karol Narowcki, a conservative historian and former amateur boxer, was by far the most popular candidate, presenting himself as the anti-elist defender of Polish identity and national interests. His campaign was hit by a series of scandals, over an undeclared second home and involvement in street fights, as well as allegations he denied about links to the Polish underworld and red-light scene.

Polish centrist and nationalist presidential candidates to face off in 2nd round
Polish centrist and nationalist presidential candidates to face off in 2nd round

Yahoo

time19-05-2025

  • Politics
  • Yahoo

Polish centrist and nationalist presidential candidates to face off in 2nd round

WARSAW (Reuters) -Centrist Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski and nationalist Karol Nawrocki will compete in a second round of the presidential election in Poland on June 1, nearly complete voting results from the electoral commission (PKW) showed early on Monday. The commission published data from 99.9% of voting districts by provinces at 0627 GMT on Monday without giving an overall result. The data shows Trzaskowski and Nawrocki well ahead of other candidates in 15 of 16 provinces. A late exit poll by Ipsos from Sunday's first round showed Trzaskowski leading with 31.2% of the vote, ahead of Nawrocki on 29.7%. If confirmed, the result would mean that Trzaskowski and Nawrocki will go head to head in a run-off vote to determine whether Poland sticks to the pro-European track set by Prime Minister Donald Tusk or moves closer to a more nationalist agenda. Both candidates started preparing for the second round early on Monday, with Trzaskowski meeting voters in Warsaw and Nawrocki in Gdansk. "We need to talk to everyone, arguments are the most important. I am glad that many young people went to vote, but the big challenge is to convince them to vote for me," Trzaskowski told reporters. Far-right candidates Slawomir Mentzen and Grzegorz Braun together accounted for more than 21% of the vote, a historically high percentage, winning widespread support from young voters. It is not clear, however, who their votes will go to in the second round. Nawrocki, backed by the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party, said he will fight for the votes the people on both sides of the political landscape. "My social agenda and the fact that I will be the guardian of the social achievements of the Law and Justice government and the Solidarity (trade union) make it an offer also for left-wing, socially sensitive circles," he said.

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