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Yahoo
26-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Paul Tudor Jones ‘smart money' is written all over Bitcoin's bull run
Bitcoin's rapid surge past $109,000 this week shows telltale signs of "smart money" whale behaviour—precisely what hedge-fund mogul Paul Tudor Jones describes as early-mover signalling at market turning points. Hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones, the founder of Tudor Investment Corporation and the trader who infamously "called" the 1987 crash, argues that "smart money" (i.e., the significant, widely informed capital supplied by institutions and whales) serves to market turning points. On-chain data indicates transaction sizes above $1 million spiked to multi-month highs in mid-May, several days before the surge. This uptick in whale activity mirrors past situations where institutional capitulation quietly laid the groundwork for a profound rally. The Playbook was spotlighted in August–September 2020 after MicroStrategy committed $425 million to Bitcoin. Square and Tesla soon followed, sparking a bull run from around $10,000 to over $60,000 by April 2021. However, as Coinbase listed on the Nasdaq in April, on-chain trackers noticed a 15% fall in wallets holding at least 1,000 BTC—the first profit-taking stage that would precede a 55% price crash by mid-2022. Data from Chainalysis states that during Bitcoin's 2018 bear market, big holders were net buyers by the time Bagholders capitulated, which in turn helped stabilize the prices. Something similar happened in November 2022: during five short minutes, the collapse of FTX threw Bitcoin under $16,000, the "super whales" (people who hold 10,000+ BTC) were buying more, gambling on a rebound that took place in 2023. Jones, who famously allocated to Bitcoin in 2020, calling it the ''fastest horse'' in a world full of monetary stimulus, believes that moving with deep pockets provides the clearest macro signal. "The best profit-maximizing strategy is to own the fastest horse. If I am forced to forecast, my bet is it will be Bitcoin." Given Bitcoin's history, he has some grounds to believe that every major rally has seen big institutions load up on Bitcoin, while every major top has seen silent distribution. Paul Tudor Jones 'smart money' is written all over Bitcoin's bull run first appeared on TheStreet on May 26, 2025
Yahoo
08-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Legendary fund manager sends blunt 7-word message on stocks
The past couple of weeks have rewarded investors who bought the dip, given the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have returned 13% and 16% since April 9, when President Trump paused the reciprocal tariffs he announced on April 2, so-called "Liberation Day." The stock market gains have happened in spite of concerning data suggesting the U.S. economy is slowing and growing concern that tariffs could mean stagflation, or worse, a recession is looming. What happens to stocks next, however, isn't clear. The major market indexes have rebounded into resistance, and some sentiment indicators are flashing overbought. Related: Veteran analyst sends urgent message on S&P 500 The uncertainty of tariffs' impact on stocks, including a staggering 145% tax on Chinese imports, has prompted many of the most influential market watchers to share thoughts, including legendary billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones. Jones has been tracking market pops and drops since the mid-1970s, but he's best known for his hedge fund, Tudor Investment Corporation. His success managing money, including predicting the 1987 crash, led to his inclusion in the Market Wizards series of books. Over the past 50 years, Jones has managed billions of dollars during bull and bear markets. Given his track record, Jones unveiled a stock market forecast this week that investors may not want to ignore. Paul Tudor Jones, co-chairman and chief investment officer of Tudor Investment Corp., has been tracking the markets for 50 Images Federal Reserve may be hamstrung by tariffs The Fed's dual mandate targets low inflation and unemployment. However, those goals are contradictory, often causing the Fed to fall behind the curve when setting monetary policy. For example, when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, it slows the economy, contributing to layoffs, but slowing inflation. However, when it cuts interest rates, it accelerates the economy, boosting hiring, but increasing inflation. Related: Analyst unveils surprising Fed interest rate cut prediction This relationship is easily seen in how monetary policy has impacted the economy over the past few years. In 2022, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell embarked on the most hawkish rate hike policy since the 1980s after incorrectly predicting inflation during 2021 would be transitory. The decision to delay rate hikes caused sky-high inflation, which peaked at 8% in June 2022. The Fed's tightening in response to inflation has driven inflation below 3%. However, those hikes have caused cracks in our job market. The unemployment rate has climbed to 4.2% from 3.4% in 2023, and layoffs are rising. In the first quarter, companies announced 497,000 layoffs, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. That was the most in the first quarter since the recession-riddled 2009. In April, 105,441 people were laid off, up 63% year over year.
Miami Herald
07-05-2025
- Business
- Miami Herald
Legendary fund manager sends blunt message on stocks
Business Legendary fund manager sends blunt message on stocks The past couple of weeks have rewarded investors who bought the dip, given the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have returned 13% and 16% since April 9, when President Trump paused the reciprocal tariffs he announced on April 2, so-called "Liberation Day." The stock market gains have happened in spite of concerning data suggesting the U.S. economy is slowing and growing concern that tariffs could mean stagflation, or worse, a recession is looming. What happens to stocks next, however, isn't clear. The major market indexes have rebounded into resistance, and some sentiment indicators are flashing overbought. Related: Veteran analyst sends urgent message on S&P 500 The uncertainty of tariffs' impact on stocks, including a staggering 145% tax on Chinese imports, has prompted many of the most influential market watchers to share thoughts, including legendary billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones. Jones has been tracking market pops and drops since the mid-1970s, but he's best known for his hedge fund, Tudor Investment Corporation. His success managing money, including predicting the 1987 crash, led to his inclusion in the Market Wizards series of books. Over the past 50 years, Jones has managed billions of dollars during bull and bear markets. Given his track record, Jones unveiled a stock market forecast this week that investors may not want to ignore. Paul Tudor Jones, co-chairman and chief investment officer of Tudor Investment Corp., has been tracking the markets for 50 years. Bloomberg/Getty Images Federal Reserve may be hamstrung by tariffs The Fed's dual mandate targets low inflation and unemployment. However, those goals are contradictory, often causing the Fed to fall behind the curve when setting monetary policy. For example, when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, it slows the economy, contributing to layoffs, but slowing inflation. However, when it cuts interest rates, it accelerates the economy, boosting hiring, but increasing inflation. Related: Analyst unveils surprising Fed interest rate cut prediction This relationship is easily seen in how monetary policy has impacted the economy over the past few years. In 2022, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell embarked on the most hawkish rate hike policy since the 1980s after incorrectly predicting inflation during 2021 would be transitory. The decision to delay rate hikes caused sky-high inflation, which peaked at 8% in June 2022. The Fed's tightening in response to inflation has driven inflation below 3%. However, those hikes have caused cracks in our job market. The unemployment rate has climbed to 4.2% from 3.4% in 2023, and layoffs are rising. In the first quarter, companies announced 497,000 layoffs, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. That was the most in the first quarter since the recession-riddled 2009. In April, 105,441 people were laid off, up 63% year over year. The weakening jobs picture prompted the Fed to switch gears, leading to September, November, and December rate cuts. However, those cuts contributed to sticky inflation, forcing the Fed to the sidelines, awaiting more data. The Fed's job is made more difficult by tariffs. More Experts: The "Liberation Day" proposed reciprocal tariffs were much higher than expected, sending shockwaves through the stock market, forcing many to reset their GDP and earnings growth outlooks. President Trump has since paused many reciprocal tariffs, but a 10% baseline tariff, a 25% tariff on Canada, Mexico, and autos, and a 145% tariff on China remain in effect. As a result, supply chains are showing strain, and consumer and business confidence are tanking. The Conference Board's Expectations Index plummeted 12.5 points to 54.4 in April, its lowest level since October 2011. Historically, readings below 80 signal a recession ahead. Similarly, the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Survey dropped 8% to 52.2 in April from March, its fourth-lowest showing for April since 1952. In the survey, inflation expectations for the coming year soared to 6.5% from 5% last month. Paul Tudor Jones says stocks will drop Paul Tudor Jones' long history on Wall Street has given him front row seats to skyrocketing inflation in the 1970s, the S&L crisis in the late '80s and early '90s, the Internet boom and bust, the Great Recession, Covid, and the 2002 bear market. Related: Warren Buffett sends strong message on trade, tariffs To say he's seen a thing or two over his career may understate things. That makes his latest stock market comments all the more worrisome. "You have Trump, who's locked in on tariffs, you have the Fed, who's locked in on not cutting rates," said Paul Tudor Jones on CNBC. "That's not good for the stock market. We'll probably go down to new lows." But what about trade deals? Could those cause stocks to head higher? Maybe. But the deals would likely have to be pretty big, and that may be unlikely given Trump's apparent commitment to his tariff scheme. "Even when Trump dials back China to 50%... or 40%... It's the largest tax increase since the 60s," said Jones. "So, you can kinda take 2% to 3% off growth." If Jones' outlook is correct, a big hit to GDP growth could force Trump and the Fed to take actions that markets would likely find far friendlier. "When we're in new lows, the hard data will start to follow, and it will probably create the Fed to move, create Trump to move," said Jones. Related: Veteran fund manager unveils eye-popping S&P 500 forecast The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc. This story was originally published May 6, 2025 at 8:07 PM.
Business Insider
06-05-2025
- Business
- Business Insider
Hedge fund billionaire Paul Tudor Jones says stocks are headed for fresh lows even if China trade tensions ease
Stocks are probably headed to a new bottom, even if China tariffs are dialed back, Paul Tudor Jones says. The legendary investor thinks the market is under too much pressure from tariffs and interest rates. The market won't rally until a new low prompts either Trump or the Fed to blink, he said on Tuesday. Stocks have clawed back most of their losses since the historic April sell-off, but the market might be headed for fresh lows, hedge fund legend Paul Tudor Jones said. The billionaire Wall Street veteran and Tudor Investment Corporation CIO said he believes stocks are likely heading to a new low in the near future, even if trade tensions between the US and China are dialed back. Jones told CNBC on Tuesday that the markets are under too much pressure from trade volatility and high interest rates — and neither of those factors is likely to ease unless another big drop in stocks forces a change. "For me, it's pretty clear. You have Trump who's locked in on tariffs. You have the Fed who's locked in on not cutting rates. That's not good for the stock market," Jones said. The S&P 500 has clawed back most of its losses since the tariffs-fueled sell-off last month. Stocks moving back to another low would imply the benchmark index falling to at least 4,982, a 10% decline from current levels. Jones added that markets are expecting Trump to dial back his tariffs on China significantly. The president has threatened a 145% tariff on goods from China, but investors are probably pricing in a tariff rate of about 50%, he estimated. But even if tariffs were to be slashed to that level, the impact of the duties would still be equivalent to the largest tax hike imposed on US consumers since the 1960s, which could potentially shave off around 2 to 3 percentage points of US GDP, Jones said. The Fed, meanwhile, insists on proceeding cautiously with rate cuts. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in a near-100% chance the central bank will leave rates unchanged at this week's policy meeting. Jones said that unless the Fed turned suddenly dovish, the market is probably making new lows, after which Trump or the central bank could respond with policy action that enables a new rally. Other forecasters on Wall Street have expressed wavering confidence in the outlook for stocks. Wells Fargo said it wouldn't be surprised if the S&P 500 retested its lows from the initial tariffs-fueled sell-off, due to lingering economic pressures from trade policy. "We keep getting the absolutely rational question: 'Have we seen the bottom in stocks?' As much as we would like to boldly answer that question with a resounding 'yes!' that just isn't the case. Again, tariff and growth concerns are the main market drivers right now, but there will likely be a few other issues that result in road bumps in the months ahead," Scott Wren, a senior global market strategist at the bank, wrote in a note last week. HSBC also said it remains "tactically cautious" on risk assets. "Where we've seen upside surprises in hard data lately, this has largely been due to frontloading. Forward-looking indications are for hard data to feel the pain soon, perhaps already in the next month or two," the bank said in a note on Tuesday.
CNBC
06-05-2025
- Business
- CNBC
CNBC Exclusive: Excerpts: Tudor Investment Corporation Founder & CIO and Robin Hood Foundation Founder & Board Member Paul Tudor Jones Speaks with CNBC's Andrew Ross Sorkin on 'Squawk Box' Today
WHEN: Today, Tuesday, May 6, 2025 WHERE: CNBC's "Squawk Box" Following are excerpts from the unofficial transcript of a CNBC exclusive interview with Tudor Investment Corporation Founder & CIO and Robin Hood Foundation Founder & Board Member Paul Tudor Jones on CNBC's "Squawk Box" (M-F, 6AM-9AM ET) today, Tuesday, May 6. Following are links to video on and All references must be sourced to CNBC. JONES ON AI PAUL TUDOR JONES: These models are increasing in their efficiency and performance between on the very low end, 25% on the high end, 500% every 3 or 4 quarters. So it's not even curvilinear. It's a vertical lift and how powerful artificial intelligence is becoming. JONES: There's a 10% chance in the next 20 years that AI will kill 50% of humanity. So there's a 10% chance that AI will kill 50% of humanity in the next 20 years. Agree or disagree? So I'd say the vast majority of the room moved to disagree side. I had just heard Joe Rogan and Elon Musk two months ago, where Elon Musk said there's only a 20% chance that AI can annihilate humanity. Now I know why he wants to go to Mars right? JONES: Can I just say I'm not a tech expert, I'm not. But I've spent my whole life managing risk. I that's why I'm here today, is because I'm a I'm as good as there is on macro risk management. And we just have to realize to their credit, all these folks in AI are telling us we're creating something that's really dangerous. It's going to be really great too, but we're helpless to do anything about it. That's to their credit, what they're telling us. And yet we're doing nothing right now and it's and it's really disturbing. JONES: First of all, again, I think markets are irrelevant with regard to this particular topic. ANDREW ROSS SORKIN: Because it's existential. JONES: It's existential, and they're telling us that. JONES ON TRUMP & AI JONES: President Trump has to get in the game. He has to be in the game. You can have good deregulation and good regulation side by side. They're not mutually exclusive. So in this particular instance, in on his watch and on President Xi's watch, in the next four years, we'll probably have artificial superintelligence, which means you take one of these algorithms. It's smarter than any human on Earth, have more than a PhD equivalent. And then you link them with a million others, and we're going to have that big bang. We're going to have artificial superintelligence. So he has to get in the game. JONES: We have cars that can go twice the speed limit. We have planes that can break the sound barrier, but we have created regulations for our safety and for social cohesion to live within that. So we have this large language model has been around for 30 months. It took the greatest generation 18 months for the Atomic Energy Commission to be formed. We have, he has to get in the game and focus like he does on tariffs and on the border. He has to get in the game and regulate this. JONES ON THE MARKETS JONES: You have Trump who's locked in on tariffs. You have the Fed who's locked in on not cutting rates. That's not a good, that's not good for the stock market. We'll probably go down to new lows until either even when Trump dials back China to 50%. SORKIN: And that's what you're expecting. JONES: Oh I'm sure he'll dial back to 50 sometime. I mean, I think that's kind of in the market right now. So he'll dial it back to 50 or 40 whatever. Even when he does that, you got those tariffs the equivalent of a 2%, it would be the largest, there are tax, it's like the largest tax increase since the 60s. So you can kind of take 2 to 3% off growth. And then you've got the Fed who's unless they got really dovish and really really cut, you're probably going to yeah you're probably going to new lows. And then when we're in new lows, the hard data will start to follow. And it'll probably create the fed to move, create Trump to move and then we'll get some kind of rally.
