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Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Russia publishes ceasefire demands
Vladimir Putin has laid out his demands for both a ceasefire and ending the war in Ukraine. Russian negotiators tabled a long memorandum in a second round of direct negotiations with Ukraine in Istanbul on Monday. The document's first section contained Moscow's 'basic parameters of a final settlement'. It stipulates that Ukraine must withdraw its troops from four eastern regions that Russia only partially occupies, and that international recognition of Russian sovereignty over them and Crimea must be granted. Kyiv must also commit to curbs on the size of its military, as well as to permanent neutrality and to having no foreign troops deployed on its territory. Diplomatic and economic ties between the two nations must be reinstated, which would include the resumption of Russian natural gas transit through Ukraine. Other demands included a ban on 'glorification or promotion of Nazism and neo-Nazism' and for the Russian language to be given official status. The second section listed the Kremlin's conditions for agreeing to a 30-day ceasefire, and appeared to give Kyiv two choices. These were that Ukraine should withdraw its troops from four mainland regions claimed by Russia, or agree to a package of demands that included cancelling martial law and holding elections. Among the other requirements was a total halt on all foreign military aid and for Ukraine to begin demobilising. The US and Turkey-brokered negotiations at the Ciragan Palace on the banks of the Bosphorus appeared to bring the sides no closer to a truce. Ukraine and Russia, however, agreed to an exchange of 6,000 bodies of fallen soldiers, as well as an 'all-for-all' swap of seriously wounded and injured prisoners of war and captured servicemen aged under 25. The Russians offered a series of smaller, localised truces across the front lines to allow for the collection of corpses. This, however, appeared to be rejected by Ukraine, as a senior military figure told The Telegraph that Russia had previously used similar pauses to prepare for fresh assaults. Both sides could not bridge the divides on a 30-day ceasefire being pushed by Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine's president, and Donald Trump. Despite the lack of progress, the US president on Monday said he was open to holding talks with his Ukrainian counterpart and Vladimir Putin, the Russian leader. Ukrainian officials had been waiting weeks for the Russian peace proposals to be published, but these documents were only made available as talks started in Istanbul. Read side-by-side, the two memorandums reveal a mountainous wedge between their opposing positions. Russia's demands appeared almost identical to the set of proposals put forward in the early months of the full-scale invasion, which were ultimately rejected by Mr Zelensky as a capitulation. The Russian terms of surrender for Ukraine were published by Russian state media hours after the talks were wrapped up in Turkey. Kyiv's proposed route to a ceasefire, and ultimately a fuller peace deal, including security guarantees to prevent another Russian invasion, no international recognition of Moscow's occupation of Ukrainian territories and no restriction on Kyiv's armed forces. A Ukrainian official familiar with the talks described them as 'unproductive', and branded Moscow demands as unacceptable. The two delegations entered a large conference at the Ciragan Palace without exchanging handshakes or pleasantries. The Russians, led by Putin aide Vladimir Medinsky, appeared stony faced as they positioned themselves around the U-shaped table, after Ukraine mounted an audacious drone attack on Moscow's fleet of strategic bomber warplanes. At one moment in the hour-long talks, Mr Medinsky accused the Ukrainians of 'putting on a show' after they handed over a list of hundreds of Ukrainian children they wanted returned from Russia. 'Do not put on a show for European tender-hearted aunties who do not have children themselves,' he said, according to a quote shared with The Telegraph by a member of the negotiating team. A Ukrainian source familiar with the talks told The Telegraph that Russia made a counter-proposal to return just 10 children. 'Ukraine brought forward a list with more than 300 children requesting their return,' the official said. 'Should Russia have agreed to this request and returned those children, that would provide Ukraine with more confidence that Russia is interested in the humanitarian component of peace negotiations.' The Russian negotiator later claimed his country would return children to Ukraine if their parents or legal guardians can be identified. Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month with unlimited access to our award-winning website, exclusive app, money-saving offers and more.
Yahoo
26-03-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
As Ukraine, Russia agree to ceasefire at sea, Moscow's battered Black Sea Fleet is set to get a reprieve
The White House on March 25 announced that Ukraine and Russia had agreed to "eliminate the use of force" in the Black Sea, returning the spotlight to a theater of battle that has been relatively quiet for more than a year. Throughout 2022 and 2023, Ukrainian strikes against Russian ships, bridges, and even navy headquarters were a regular occurrence, and the neutering of the Black Sea Fleet has often been hailed as one of Ukraine's greatest military feats during the full-scale war. Although Ukraine's coastal cities and ports still regularly come under Russian missile and drone attack, out at sea, Kyiv was able to carve out its own trade route after Russia pulled out of the U.N. and Turkey-brokered Black Sea Grain Initiative in July 2023. The corridor has been a lifeline for Ukraine's economy by allowing cargo vessels to sail safely by hugging the coastlines of Bulgaria and Romania while guided by the Ukrainian Navy. The latest ceasefire agreement is missing crucial securities that Ukraine urgently needs, including protecting its ports from Russian attacks as well as opening up the blockaded Mykolaiv port. After the ceasefire was announced, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said Ukraine would consider it violated if Russia moved its warships outside of the eastern part of the Black Sea, as this would be regarded as a threat to national security. "In this case, Ukraine will have the full right to exercise the right to self-defense," Umerov said. After Ukraine reportedly lost all of its remaining surface vessels in the early months of the full-scale war, Russia was widely expected to have a free hand in the Black Sea. But innovative tools such as Magura and Sea Baby naval drones and domestically made Neptune missiles turned the tide. Ukraine celebrated its most successful "kill" when the missile cruiser Moskva, the Black Sea Fleet's flagship, sunk on April 14, 2022, after being struck by two Neptune missiles — marking Russia's first flagship loss since the Russo-Japanese War in 1905. Ukraine built on its successes, retaking key positions like the Snake Island off the coast of Odesa and, striking Russian naval facilities and docked vessels in Crimea with Western SCALP and Storm Shadow missiles. One of the crowning achievements of this campaign was a devastating strike on the Black Sea Fleet headquarters in Sevastopol on March 22, 2023. Throughout the all-out war, Ukraine claims to have destroyed or disabled around a third of 80 Russian Black Sea Fleet vessels, including the Rostov-on-Don Kilo-class submarine, Ropucha-class landing crafts, missile boats, and more. The General Staff says that 29 Russian vessels have been taken out of action as of February 2025. "From the initial perception that the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Navy was the dominant force in the Black Sea and could do whatever it wants, (we came) to a situation where it is really a very limited factor," Dmitry Gorenburg, a senior research scientist at the Center for Naval Analyses, told the Kyiv Independent. To protect its remaining naval assets, in late 2024, Russia began to withdraw its naval forces from occupied Crimea eastward to the Novorossiysk port in Russia's Krasnodar Krai, further away from Ukraine's reach. "First, they (Russia) lost the ability… to threaten the coastline with amphibious landings in the first few months of the war. And then, the Russian Navy was gradually pushed farther and farther away from the coastline and eventually lost the ability to blockade the grain shipments," Gorenburg said. As Turkey does not allow Russia to send in reinforcements through the Turkish Straits in accordance with the Montreux Convention, Moscow is unable to replenish its losses. After a sustained Ukrainian campaign, it effectively lost its grip over the Black Sea, allowing Ukraine to resume vital trade lanes. However, the impact on Russia's global naval power should not be overestimated. Russian fleets operate independently, and the Black Sea Fleet is considered secondary to the Northern or Pacific ones. A blow against the Black Sea Fleet will not make Russia lose confidence in its Arctic naval assets, security expert Olga R. Chiriac told the Kyiv Independent. "They're very different in nature. The Black Sea fleet is more of a symbol, a prestige thing, versus the Arctic fleet," Chiriac said. But there is one region where the Russian Navy felt the sting of the Russia-Ukraine war — the Mediterranean Sea. Turkey's adherence to the Montreux Convention hurts Russia in two ways. Not only does it prevent any belligerent vessels from entering the Black Sea, but it also prevents them from leaving. Due to its proximity, the Black Sea Fleet has been the logical resource base for Russian operations in the Mediterranean. Russia's naval assets in the region are limited, usually around 10-11 ships, including support vessels, says Sidharth Kaushal, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). Nevertheless, the presence allowed Moscow to project its influence in the Middle East and beyond and cast itself as a global power. Russia could better support its regional allies — by shipping arms, soldiers, and ammunition to Syria's former dictator Bashar al-Assad through the so-called "Syria Express" of Ropucha-class ships, or by launching air strikes against Assad's enemies. The squadron has also been used to harass and gather intelligence on a much more powerful NATO presence in the Mediterranean. After the outbreak of the full-scale war, maintaining and supporting the Mediterranean presence fell to vessels much further away, like those from the Baltic Sea Fleet, Kaushal says. Russia took another major blow in the region when a lightning rebel offensive in December 2024 overthrew Assad. The new leadership reportedly terminated a lease agreement with Russia on Syria's vital Tartus port, Moscow's only foreign naval base, barring those in occupied Ukrainian territories. Blocked passage through the Turkish Straits and the possible loss of the Tartus base only compound Russia's existing challenges. "The Russians recognized they didn't have the industrial capacity to build… the sort of the larger vessels that were built during the Soviet era, things like the Kirov-class cruiser," Kaushal said. "And so they invested much more in smaller vessels, frigates, and corvettes, which they armed very heavily with missiles," the expert added, explaining that these green-water vessels are much more dependent on auxiliary facilities and vessels during long voyages. Unlike the U.S., which is open to using private contractors to support its maritime operations, Russia constrains itself by relying only on its own infrastructure, according to Gorenburg. There seem to be only a few alternatives to the Tartus base. Libya appears to be Russia's first choice. Moscow seeks to pivot its naval presence to territories controlled by Libyan National Army (LNA) Commander Khalifa Haftar, a warlord whom Moscow supported during the country's second civil war. However, Haftar's forces do not control key ports like Tripoli, meaning that the naval infrastructure Russia used in Tartus would have to be built from scratch, Kaushal points out. A Russian deal with Sudan to establish a naval base in the war-torn country has also been presented as an alternative to Tartus. Still, the Red Sea base would be geographically distant, separated by the Suez Canal. "So that combination of factors, having to deploy vessels to the Eastern Mediterranean from further away and potentially losing Tartus, will really strain the Russians' forced posture in the Eastern Mediterranean," Kaushal concluded. Read also: 'Not what Ukraine needs' — Black Sea ceasefire favors Russia more than Ukraine, say experts We've been working hard to bring you independent, locally-sourced news from Ukraine. Consider supporting the Kyiv Independent.
Yahoo
25-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
‘Not what Ukraine needs' — Black Sea ceasefire favors Russia more than Ukraine, say experts
While the White House celebrates a ceasefire in the Black Sea after a 12-hour meeting in Riyadh, in Ukraine, the enthusiasm is muted. The agreement is missing crucial securities that Ukraine urgently needs, including protecting its ports from Russian attacks as well as opening up the blockaded Mykolaiv port. The deal negotiated by the U.S. and Russia leans more in Moscow's favor, experts told the Kyiv Independent. Washington, Kyiv, and Moscow agreed to a ceasefire on March 25 to 'eliminate the use of force' and prevent the use of commercial vessels for military purposes. In return, the U.S. will help restore Russia's fertilizer and agricultural exports to the world market, lower maritime insurance costs, and enhance access to ports and payment systems for such transactions.'This is definitely not what Ukraine needs,' said Serhiy Vovk, director of the Center for Transportation Strategies, a consultancy in Kyiv. 'What we urgently need now is the protection of our port infrastructure from missiles and drones, but there is not a single word about this in the White House statement.'Since the start of the full-scale invasion, Russia has damaged or destroyed 385 port infrastructure facilities, destabilizing Ukraine's port operations. Ports in Odesa Oblast, Ukraine's last operating seaport region, suffered attacks on average every three days from January to February has also blocked the crucial Mykolaiv port since 2022, one of the largest seaports in the country, adding logistical costs to agricultural producers. Farmers across the country can only export goods from three Ukrainian seaports: Pivdennyi, Chornomorsk, and are conflicting statements about when the ceasefire will start. President Volodymyr Zelensky said it is in effect from today, while the Kremlin says it will begin when sanctions on Russian food producers and exporters are lifted. Read also: Russia, Ukraine agree to implement ban on energy infrastructure strikes, minister says After Russia pulled out of the UN and Turkey-brokered Black Sea Grain Initiative in July 2023, Ukraine's military carved out its own trade route through the sea. It has been a lifeline for Ukraine's economy by allowing cargo vessels to sail safely by hugging the coastlines of Bulgaria and Romania while guided by the Ukrainian Navy. Sea drone attacks that sank Russian ships pushed Russia's fleet eastward and away from the Crimean ports, adding an extra safety cushion. Ukraine's Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said Russia would violate the new agreement if it moves its warships westwards again. It will be regarded as a threat to Ukraine's national security, he added. 'If the Russian navy returns to Sevastopol, to Crimea, we will have many risks regarding, for example, our joint anti-mine initiative where we try to demine our sea routes in partnership with Bulgaria, Turkey, and Romania,' said U.S. and Russia underwent the negotiations without its European allies at the table, despite concerns from Black Sea countries Romania and Bulgaria that the Russian fleet could dominate the Black Sea again. Those countries should also be included in talks for their safety, said Vovk. Russian attacks on vessels have hit close to NATO member Romania, even damaging a Romanian ship in July 2023. 'I am concerned that this deal may be shifting from a local solution aimed at saving Ukrainian exports into a broader geopolitical game that does not include Ukraine's allies at the negotiating table,' said Andrii Pidhainyi, a partner and co-head of Transport and Infrastructure Practice at Arzinger, a Ukrainian law firm. Since embarking on its own maritime corridor, Ukraine has been able to export non-food related products, crucially iron ore, which has kept its battered metallurgy industry afloat. Only agricultural products were allowed under the initial Grain Initiative. The upside, for now, is that Ukraine will not have to return to the previous terms of the Black Sea Grain Initiative and will be able to continue to export metal and mining products. Without access to sea exports, Ukraine's metallurgy sector lost out to competitors on the global market, which in turn hit Ukraine's economy and caused shortages in countries reliant on imports, the National Association of Extractive Industry of Ukraine told the Kyiv own corridor boosted exports by nearly 60% compared to the grain deal, reaching 92 million metric tons last year, according to the Center for Transport Industries. This included 33.7 million tons of iron ore, an 89.9% increase from 2023, according to the GMK Center, a metallurgy consulting company. The current corridor is much smoother and faster than under the old grain deal, said Bogdan Kostetskyi, an operating partner at consulting service Barva Invest. Sea freight and insurance rates for bulk cargos are close to that of the neighboring Romanian port, Constanta, he noted. While he sees 'little visible benefits for Ukraine,' Kostetskyi said it's good that the new deal does not mention the return of Russian inspections of vessels in the Bosphorus. While on paper, Russian inspectors were searching for weapons, they deliberately drew out the process, causing long delays in the Bosphorus Strait, Ukraine's Infrastructure Ministry previously claimed. By October 2022, more than 100 ships were stuck waiting in the Bosphorus at one time, as only five to seven vessels were inspected per day instead of the minimum required 16-18. The holdups cost Ukrainian farmers $10-15 per metric ton in vessel demurrage, Kostetskyi said. 'When Russia controlled the Ukrainian exports in 2023, they sabotaged it. We are not interested (in returning to that),' said Serhii Fursa, deputy managing director at investment firm Dragon Capital. Read also: Kremlin names energy facilities exempt from strikes during partial ceasefire Subscribe to the Newsletter Ukraine Business Roundup Subscribe We've been working hard to bring you independent, locally-sourced news from Ukraine. Consider supporting the Kyiv Independent.
