Latest news with #TurkeyEconomy
Zawya
a day ago
- Business
- Zawya
Turkey's economy grew 2.0% in first quarter, below forecasts
Turkey's economy expanded 2.0% in the first quarter of the year, below expectations, official data showed on Friday. First-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) grew 1.0% from the previous quarter on a seasonally and calendar-adjusted basis, data from the Turkish Statistical Institute showed. In a Reuters poll, the economy was forecast to have expanded 2.3% in the first quarter. Turkey's economy had grown 3.0% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2024, bringing full-year growth to 3.2% and exceeding forecasts despite the weight of high interest rates. Economists forecast an expansion of 3% in 2025 as a whole, slightly lower than last year, the poll showed, reflecting the effects of monetary tightening. In December, the central bank started an easing cycle after having kept the main policy rate steady at 50% for eight months. Inflation has dipped from as high as 75% last May. In April, Turkey's central bank hiked its policy rate by 350 basis points and raised the lending rate to 49% in response to market turmoil that erupted over the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, President Tayyip Erdogan's main political rival. (Reporting by Canan Sevgili in Gdansk; Editing by Tuvan Gumrukcu and Jamie Freed)
Reuters
a day ago
- Business
- Reuters
Turkey's economy grew 2.0% in first quarter, below forecasts
May 30 (Reuters) - Turkey's economy expanded 2.0% in the first quarter of the year, below expectations, official data showed on Friday. First-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) grew 1.0% from the previous quarter on a seasonally and calendar-adjusted basis, data from the Turkish Statistical Institute showed. In a Reuters poll, the economy was forecast to have expanded 2.3% in the first quarter. Turkey's economy had grown 3.0% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2024, bringing full-year growth to 3.2% and exceeding forecasts despite the weight of high interest rates. Economists forecast an expansion of 3% in 2025 as a whole, slightly lower than last year, the poll showed, reflecting the effects of monetary tightening. In December, the central bank started an easing cycle after having kept the main policy rate steady at 50% for eight months. Inflation has dipped from as high as 75% last May. In April, Turkey's central bank hiked its policy rate by 350 basis points and raised the lending rate to 49% in response to market turmoil that erupted over the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, President Tayyip Erdogan's main political rival.
Bloomberg
2 days ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Turkey's Economy Expands Less Than Projected in First Quarter
Turkey's economy expanded less than projected in the first quarter despite a brief period of interest-rate cuts. Gross domestic product expanded 1% in the January-to-March period in seasonally and working-day adjusted terms, according to data published by the state statistics office on Friday. That's less than 1.7% in the previous quarter and worse than the median forecast of 1.2% in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
Reuters
4 days ago
- Business
- Reuters
Turkey's Q1 economic growth seen at 2.3%, full-year at 3%: Reuters poll
ISTANBUL, May 27 (Reuters) - Turkey's economy is expected to have grown by 2.3% in the first quarter and by 3% for 2025 as a whole, lower than government forecasts, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday. The big emerging market economy expanded by 3% in the fourth quarter and 3.2% in 2024 a whole. Estimates of ten economists in the Reuters poll for the first quarter ranged from 1.5% to 3.2%, with the median at 2.3% gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Economists forecast an expansion of 3% this year, slightly lower than last year, the poll showed, reflecting the effects of monetary tightening. In December, the central bank started an easing cycle after having kept the main policy rate steady at 50% for eight months. Inflation has dipped from as high as 75% last May. In March and April, the bank tightened its policy rate by 350 basis points and raised the lending rate to 49% in response to market turmoil that erupted over the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, President Tayyip Erdogan's main political rival. Economists expect the central bank to return to easing this summer albeit with fewer cuts throughout the year. While the tight policy has helped cool inflation, it has the potential to also cool economic growth, which is already under pressure from global trade wars. The government has forecast 4% economic growth this year. In a research note, Goldman Sachs said economic growth lost some momentum in the first quarter and that the monetary tightening since March has increased downside risks. "Activity was driven predominantly by household consumption in Q1, supported by expansionary fiscal policy since the H2 last year and monetary easing since December," the Wall Street bank said. The central bank is now "focusing more on the need for a demand slowdown for further disinflation," Goldman added. "However, we are sceptical that policy will remain tight for long enough to reduce momentum meaningfully." The Turkish Statistical Institute is expected to release the official Q1 GDP data at 0700 GMT on Friday.
Zawya
23-05-2025
- Business
- Zawya
Turkey comes back with more sevens: IFR
Turkey raised US$2bn in its second bond outing of the year on Wednesday, which was a similar deal to its first transaction three months ago. The sovereign had long been expected to return to the primary arena, given it has about US$11bn to raise in international markets this year. But it was delayed for various reasons – the arrest of the Istanbul mayor, then the US tariffs and even the regional development bank annual meetings. Ironically, given the relatively more supportive backdrop of the past couple of weeks, the deal came on a much tougher day, with US rates selling off again because of president Donald Trump's push for tax cuts despite rising debts, and also a weak 20-year Treasury auction. "[Turkey] navigated a tricky market backdrop, with the seven-year Treasury up 9bp on the day," said a banker. The sovereign printed a 7.25% May 2032 trade at a yield of 7.45% from IPTs of the 7.75% area. The best reference point was the bond it priced earlier this year, a US$2.5bn 7.125% February 2032 note. It was bid at around 7.30%, according to LSEG, just after books opened. Given the volatility, however, the leads said the premium was about 7bp by the end. The decision to go with the same seven-year tenor was down to the cost of funding, said the banker. An investor said after IPTs had been announced, he saw 40bp–45bp of new issuance premium, though he expected pricing to be compressed "given the seven-year point is likely attracting local demand". He said Turkey has traded "relatively well" through the tariffs-inspired volatility and with its five-year CDS trading sub-300bp. The performance of the February 2032s shows how much of a swing there has been in asset prices, with the bond trading as low as 7.06% at the close on March 18 and as high as 7.91% at the April 9 close, according to LSEG. About 140 accounts were in the new issue. UK investors were the biggest buyers with 38%, the US took 30%, Turkey 15%, other Europe 13% and others 4%. The deal came a day before the central bank left its year-end inflation forecast unchanged at 24%, but governor Fatih Karahan said it is ready to tighten policy if inflation worsens, after having pivoted to raising interest rates last month, reported Reuters. Turkey is rated B1 positive by Moody's and BB– stable by Fitch. Bank of America, BNP Paribas, HSBC and Morgan Stanley were the lead managers.
