Latest news with #TurkeyElections
New York Times
26-05-2025
- Politics
- New York Times
Erdogan Might Have Finally Gone Too Far
It has been more than two months since the police in Turkey detained Ekrem Imamoglu, the popular mayor of Istanbul and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's likely opponent in Turkey's next presidential election. The international reaction has been largely muted. Turkey is rightly recognized as a geopolitically important — even indispensable — NATO ally, a dominant military power in post-Assad Syria and the natural host to delegations to negotiate peace in Ukraine. If Mr. Erdogan, who has long had authoritarian tendencies, is now setting Turkey on the path to full-fledged autocracy, the international community does not seem poised to prevent him. Nevertheless, he might still fail. In Turkey the largest protests in a decade and, crucially, the lack of support by important political allies suggest that Mr. Erdogan's determination to remain in power might have finally pushed him to go too far. Mr. Erdogan has dominated Turkish politics since the early 2000s. For a long time he continued to enjoy popular support, even as he jailed opponents. He continued to consolidate power and, while elections were not fair, the opposition could still win. Last year his Justice and Development Party, or A.K.P., had a poor showing in municipal elections when disaffected conservative voters, tired of persistently high unemployment and inflation, shifted toward the Republican People's Party, known as the C.H.P. Those elections also returned Mr. Imamoglu as the mayor of Istanbul for a second term. Mr. Imamoglu's arrest in March signaled something new: that in elections in Turkey, popular opposition politicians may simply not be allowed to run. Mr. Erdogan appeared to be borrowing from the playbook of President Vladimir Putin of Russia. But importantly, since Turkey — unlike Russia — does not possess the natural resources that could help fund autocratic rule, Mr. Erdogan is constrained by the need for foreign investment, state support and a majority of the public's support or at least acquiescence to his actions. It was immediately clear that the arrest rattled markets — the lira, Turkey's currency, fell to a record low — and was deeply unpopular with the population. One poll suggested that 65 percent of people disapproved, and many thousands of people crowded into the streets. A few days after Mr. Imamoglu's arrest, his party conducted a symbolic primary, in which party members and sympathizers anointed the mayor as their candidate for president. It's possible that this public anger could give way to apathy before the next elections are scheduled to be held, in 2028. Mr. Erdogan may be banking on it. But some of the president's political allies in the state are signaling that they, too, object. The far-right Nationalist Movement Party, or M.H.P., was critical to Mr. Erdogan's re-election as president in 2018 and 2023 and forms part of the A.K.P.'s current parliamentary majority. But a few weeks after Mr. Imamoglu's arrest, Devlet Bahceli, the leader of the M.H.P., urged a quick resolution. 'If he is innocent, he should be released,' Mr. Bahceli was reported to have said. M.H.P. loyalists hold many positions in the state bureaucracy and the judiciary, and the party and Mr. Bahceli have been central to the peace process with the Kurdistan Workers' Party, an insurgent group known by its Kurdish initials, P.K.K. The disarming and disbanding of the P.K.K., which the group announced this month, is essential for Turkey's national security and improved relations with its neighbors, but the arrest of Mr. Imamoglu could still imperil this process by undermining the premise that the Kurds will be able to pursue a political solution. Despite Turkey's ubiquity on the world stage, it is still geopolitically vulnerable. Russia has historically competed with Turkey for dominance in the Black Sea, the Mediterranean and the Caucasus. But above all, Turkey fears a Kurdish alliance with Israel; Foreign Minister Gideon Saar of Israel has described the Kurdish people as victims of Turkish and Iranian oppression and as Israel's 'natural ally.' Turkey has a history of turning toward democracy in the face of perceived threats to its national security. In 1950 an authoritarian president, Ismet Inonu, recognized that Turkey, threatened by the Soviet Union, needed to be fully accepted by the West for its own protection. Turkey held multiparty elections, which Mr. Inonu lost, and he duly resigned. Decades later, at the turn of this century, a push for membership in the European Union prompted successive Turkish governments to carry out liberal reforms required for its entry. It's time for Turkey to turn toward democracy again. Others have recognized this. It's time for Mr. Erdogan to listen.
BBC News
08-05-2025
- Politics
- BBC News
Turkey moves to silence jailed Erdogan rival by blocking account on X
Access to the social media account of Istanbul's jailed opposition mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu, has been blocked by the authorities in who is the main rival to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, can no longer send messages in Turkey to his 9.7 million followers on X. His account is still accessible social media feed has been his main tool for communicating with his supporters and keeping himself in the public had been posting daily by sending messages out from prison via his lawyers. "It's like the authorities want to make him disappear," one commentator said. Imamoglu's Republican People's Party (CHP) - the main opposition party in Turkey - - told the BBC that blocking his account was a continuation of "the coup attempt on 19 March", when he was arrested.''Now they won't even allow him to speak to the public," said CHP Secretary General Selin Sayek Boke. "It clearly shows the fear of those in power that they will be losing power. It's a coup attempt against the next ballot box."Opinion polls suggest that Ekrem Imamoglu, who has been elected mayor of Turkey's largest city three times, would win a presidential election if he was able to next presidential election is not due to be held until 2028.A message on his account on Thursday said it had been blocked due to a legal demand, although it is still available in Turkey with the use of a virtual private network (VPN). A lawyer representing X said he had filed a court challenge to the ban, at the request of the social media prosecutors are investigating a post on Imamoglu's account, on the basis that it may constitute an incitement to commit crime, according to the president's communications that post last month, the mayor condemned his arrest and a wider crackdown on the opposition and called on the nation to complain and "raise your voice". Some X users have replaced their profile pictures with images of the mayor, including Yusuf Can, analyst at the Middle East Programme of the Wilson Centre in Washington."Elon Musk has blocked the account of the hostage mayor and presidential candidate, upon Erdogan's request – silencing the country's most prominent opposition voice. We are all Imamoglu," he mayor has been behind bars since March on corruption charges, which he has is being held in Marmara high security prison in Silivri, on the outskirts of the city he was elected to run. He has plenty of company - around 100 people were arrested with him - including city officials and members of his party. Dozens more have been arrested since, including his lawyers, and lawyers acting for those rights groups say the arrests are part of an accelerating attack on civil society in supporters say the charges against him are politically motivated, and that Turkey's courts have been weaponised. The government has said the judiciary are his most recent post, on Wednesday, Imamoglu called on supporters to join a protest rally in Istanbul that was one of the biggest in recent weeks with tens of thousands turning arrest in March sparked the largest anti-government protests in Turkey in over a protests were largely peaceful but around 2,000 people were arrested in just a few days, many of them demonstrations are continuing in Istanbul, and around the country, but numbers have been smaller.
Reuters
06-05-2025
- Politics
- Reuters
Turkish support firms for jailed mayor Imamoglu vs Erdogan, polls show
Summary Surveys by Metropoll, Konda show growing polarisation Imamoglu's lead firmed over Erdogan since March -polls Mayor's arrest sparked largest protests in a decade ISTANBUL, May 6 (Reuters) - Popular support for Ekrem Imamoglu, the Istanbul mayor whose arrest sparked Turkey's largest protests in a decade, has risen further above President Tayyip Erdogan since he was detained and jailed in March, opinion polls show. Two surveys released in recent days suggest that Imamoglu's detention on March 19 has also reinforced views that he is Erdogan's main rival in any future presidential vote, even as he sits behind bars. The mayor was jailed on March 23 pending a hearing on corruption charges that he denies - a move that the opposition and some European leaders called politicised and anti-democratic, and which accelerated nationwide rallies. Erdogan's government rejects the criticism and says the judiciary is independent. It is unclear when Imamoglu, a two-term mayor, will have his day in court and whether he will be released. Investigations continue after he and more than 100 other officials from Turkey's largest city were detained on various charges. Surveys conducted in April by Metropoll and Konda, two top pollsters, show Imamoglu topping Erdogan by a comfortable margin in a hypothetical head-to-head election - though a vote is not due until 2028. They also show that, since the mayor's arrest nearly two months ago, Turkish voters have grown more deeply polarised between Erdogan's AK Party (AKP) and Imamoglu's main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP). "If the election were held today, and Imamoglu and Erdogan went to the second round vote, Imamoglu would lead by seven (percentage) points," said Ozer Sencar, head of research at Metropoll, which put the mayor's support at 46.7% and the president's at 39.3%. Metropoll found that both the CHP and the AKP had received a roughly five percentage point boost in support since March, to 34% and 33% respectively, due largely to previously undecided voters picking sides. Last elected in 2023, Erdogan cannot run again under the law unless an early election is called and is backed by three-fifths of parliament, for which he would need support beyond his ruling conservative coalition. A CHP public petition calling for Imamoglu's freedom and early elections has surpassed 13 million signatures, according to Milliyet newspaper. The party did not respond when asked for the latest data. 'TWO-HORSE RACE' Erdogan, who has run Turkey for 22 years, has said that corruption appears deeply entrenched in Imamoglu's former city administration and that the probe will be comprehensive, comments the CHP has slammed as another breach of judicial independence. The Konda poll showed Imamoglu's support rising well past 40% in April, up from the previous month and sitting comfortably above Erdogan's in a hypothetical head-to-head vote, according to Aydin Erdem, the Istanbul firm's general manager. Erdogan leads when poll respondents were asked to select from a broader list of nine potential candidates, Konda found. But the number of undecided voters dropped sharply in April from March, with most backing one of the two men, suggesting the mayor's jailing reinforced a "growing polarization" in politics and the potential future "two horse-race", Erdem said. The Konda and Metropoll results were largely unpublished beyond clients. Some past survey results have shown Imamoglu's support at similarly elevated levels, including ahead of his decisive municipal election victory last year. A day before Imamoglu was detained, authorities revoked his university degree, which is required by law for any presidential run. On the day he was jailed, the CHP elected him its official presidential candidate in a previously-scheduled party vote. The head of another pollster, Mehmet Ali Kulat of MAK, said the future success of Imamoglu and his CHP will hinge largely on whether other opposition parties, particularly the pro-Kurdish DEM Party that backed CHP in the past, lend their support. DEM is in talks with the government to press for a peace deal with the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which has said it would dissolve after a call in February by its jailed leader to do so after a decades-long war with the Turkish state.
