Latest news with #TurnerMason&Co
Nahar Net
3 hours ago
- Business
- Nahar Net
Oil prices flip-flop, US stocks drift as markets await Iran response to US strike
by Naharnet Newsdesk 23 June 2025, 11:46 The United States' bunker-busting entry into Israel's war with Iran is having only a modest effect on the price of oil and stock markets worldwide Monday, at least for now. The hope is that Iran won't retaliate in a way that disrupts the global flow of crude, which would hurt economies worldwide but also its own. The S&P 500 was edging down by 0.1% in early trading, coming off a week where stock prices had jumped up and down on worries about the conflict potentially escalating. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 37 points, or 0.1%, as of 9:35 a.m. Eastern time, and the Nasdaq composite was 0.4% lower. The price of oil did jump 4% shortly after trading began on Sunday night, but it quickly pared back as the focus shifted from what the U.S. military did to how Iran would react. By Monday morning, the price of a benchmark barrel of U.S. oil was up 0.4% at $74.16 after briefly dipping to a loss. Brent crude, the international standard, edged up by 0.2% to $77.17 per barrel. They still remain higher than they were before the fighting began a little more than a week ago, when a barrel of benchmark U.S. crude was close to $68. The fear is that a worsening war could squeeze the world's supply of oil, which would pump up prices for it, gasoline and other products refined from crude. Not only is Iran a major producer of crude, it could also try to block access to the Strait of Hormuz off its coast. Much of the world's oil passes through the strait each day on ships. The calming in the oil market came as several analysts said Iran would likely refrain from closing the waterway. Iran itself uses the strait to move its own crude, mostly to China, and it needs the revenue made from such sales of oil. "It's a scorched earth possibility, a Sherman-burning-Atlanta move," said Tom Kloza, chief market analyst at Turner Mason & Co. "It's not probable." Neil Newman, managing director of Atris Advisory Japan, said hope remains that the Israel-Iran war could be a short conflict, with the thinking being "the one big hit by the Americans will be effective and then we'll get back to sort of business as usual, in which case there is no need for an immediate, panicky type of reaction." Speaking to Fox News on Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said a disruption to traffic through the strait by Iran would be "economic suicide" and would elicit a U.S. response. When asked about that at a routine briefing in Beijing, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun told reporters that "China is willing to strengthen communication with Iran and relevant parties to continue playing a constructive role in promoting de-escalation" of the conflict. "The Persian Gulf and its adjacent waters are important international channels for cargo and energy trade. Maintaining security and stability in this region serves the common interests of the international community," he said. Of course, not everyone is sure about Iran's next move. Andy Lipow, a Houston analyst covering oil markets for 45 years, said countries are not always rational actors and that he wouldn't be surprised if Tehran lashed out for political or emotional reasons. "If the Strait of Hormuz was completely shut down, oil prices would rise to $120 to $130 a barrel," said Lipow, predicting that that would translate to about $4.50 a gallon at the pump and hurt consumers in other ways. "It would mean higher prices for all those goods transported by truck, and it would be more difficult for the Fed to lower interest rates." The Federal Reserve has been hesitant to lower interest rates, and it's been on hold this year after cutting at the end of last year, because it's waiting to see how much President Donald Trump's tariffs will hurt the economy and raise inflation. Inflation has remained relatively tame recently, and it's near the Fed's target of 2%. A continued rise in oil and gasoline prices would put upward pressure on inflation. That in turn could keep the Fed on hold because cuts to rates can fan inflation higher, along with giving the economy a boost. In the bond market, Treasury yields eased a little as hopes continue that the Fed may cut interest rates later this year. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.34% from 4.38% late Friday. The two-year Treasury yield, which more closely tracks expectations for the Fed, fell more modestly to 3.89% from 3.90%. In stock markets abroad, indexes fell modestly across Europe after finishing mixed in Asia. France's CAC 40 fell 1%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.7% for two of the world's bigger moves.
ITV News
9 hours ago
- Business
- ITV News
Oil prices rise after US strikes on Iran nuclear sites
Oil prices have risen following the US's strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites in a major escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict. The price of Brent crude oil, the traditional benchmark global oil price, was up 2% at $78.52 a barrel on Monday. US crude also jumped, gaining 2% to $75.34 a barrel by midday in Asia. The attacks by the United States on Saturday, which President Donald Trump claimed caused "monumental damage", raised the stakes in the war between Israel and Iran. The conflict began with an Israeli attack against Iran on June 13 that sent oil prices yo-yoing and rattled other markets. Iran is a major producer of oil and also sits on the narrow Strait of Hormuz, through which much of the world's crude passes. Closing off the waterway would be technically difficult to pull off, but it could severely disrupt transit through it, sending insurance rates spiking and making shippers nervous to move without US Navy escorts. 'The situation remains highly fluid, and much hinges on whether Tehran opts for a restrained reaction or a more aggressive course of action,' Kristian Kerr, head of macro strategy at LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina, said. Iran may be reluctant to close down the waterway because it uses the strait to transport its own crude, mostly to China, and oil is a major revenue source for the regime. 'It's a scorched earth possibility, a Sherman-burning-Atlanta move,' said Tom Kloza, chief market analyst at Turner Mason & Co. "It's not probable.' Mr Kloza thinks oil futures will ease back down after initial fears blow over. Ed Yardeni, a long-time analyst, agreed, writing in a report that Tehran leaders would likely hold back. 'They aren't crazy,' he wrote in a note to investors Sunday. 'The price of oil should fall and stock markets around the world should climb higher.' However, Andy Lipow, a Houston analyst covering oil markets for 45 years, said countries are not always rational actors and that he wouldn't be surprised if Tehran lashed out for political or emotional reasons. 'If the Strait of Hormuz was completely shut down, oil prices would rise to $120 to $130 a barrel,' said Lipow, predicting that that would translate to about $4.50 a gallon at the pump and hurt consumers in other ways. 'It would mean higher prices for all those goods transported by truck, and it would be more difficult for the Fed to lower interest rates.' US stock futures fell in response to the attacks. Dow futures dropped 175 points, or 0.4%. S&P 500 futures fell 0.4%, while Nasdaq futures tumbled 0.5%. Defence-related stocks had risen when the markets opened on Monday morning. In Tokyo, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries climbed 0.8% and ShinMaywa Industries, another major weapons maker, surged 1.5%. The Nikkei 225 dropped 0.2%, a lesser drop than other stock market indices, due to larger losses being offset by gains from defence stocks.
