12 hours ago
‘It's Liz Truss territory': how bad are things for Kemi Badenoch?
Around 5 p.m. on Monday one of Kemi Badenoch's aides was having a drink with a friend in the Two Chairmen pub in Westminster. Over a pint of IPA he explained how the Conservative leader was planning to thrust herself more forcefully into the public conversation. 'We know the pace needs to quicken,' he admitted. 'Reform are sucking up the political oxygen.' Badenoch inherited a 'party on its knees', the basics of which needed overhauling. 'We'd love to be doing more fun viral social media stuff, but Kemi is sitting down and getting on with it.'
That same afternoon, just over 100 yards away, outside the Westminster Arms, Robert Jenrick, the shadow justice secretary, who has impressed MPs with his energetic harrying of the government and a series of fun viral social media clips, was having a drink with Tom Skinner, a former star of The Apprentice (catchphrase: 'Bosh!') who wants to be the Tory candidate for London mayor. A video of the two was soon on Jenrick's social feeds. 'He looked like the leader interviewing a candidate,' a witness says.
All this happened after an Ipsos poll put the Tories on 15 per cent, 19 points behind Reform, their worst showing since the firm began polling in the 1970s. MPs are no longer asking whether they could win the next general election but whether the party is facing extinction next year, when voters are expected to deliver another hammer blow in the local, Scottish and Welsh elections.
Shadow cabinet members have seen private polling showing that the Conservatives could be wiped out in the 2029 general election. Badenoch's personal satisfaction rating of 49 with Ipsos makes her the most unpopular leader of the opposition ever after six months. At this stage William Hague was on 30, Ed Miliband on 10 and Keir Starmer himself just above zero.
'The polls are absolutely horrific,' says a shadow minister. 'Kemi's personal polling is in Liz Truss territory. There is now no precedent for it. People say 'Let Kemi be Kemi' but there are increasingly few don't-knows and they are moving against us. We are being frozen out of the national conversation.' Dozens of MPs believe that if she is still in charge next spring there might be
very little left.
In recent council by-elections in King's Lynn and West Norfolk – a seat still held in the Commons by the Tory James Wild – the Conservatives failed to even field a candidate. Reform won both. In Mansfield, they secured just 9.4 per cent of the vote in a council seat once held by Ben Bradley. Reform got 61.6 per cent.
Another former Downing Street strategist says: 'The best plan at this point is probably to try to salvage what we can. Fight to retain 80 to 100 seats and hope to be relevant when the next government is forming.'
Badenoch's team sees progress, after Starmer was forced to U-turn on holding a public inquiry into rape gangs and over the winter fuel allowance, issues she had championed. She plans to launch a new policy board every week until the summer recess, including a tax commission and one on 'social cohesion'. She will use the party conference in October to unveil her plans for whether and how to leave the European Convention on Human Rights. Party fund-raising has outpaced that of Reform and Labour in the past two quarters. Allies cling to the dictum of David Canzini, a No. 10 strategist under Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, who tells colleagues: 'It takes two years before the public starts to forget your record.' They hope that means Badenoch can make headway in the polls by the summer of 2026.
But despite better performances at Prime Minister's Questions, many Tories think Badenoch is unable to channel her undoubted intellect into something that is palatable to the average voter. When Palestine Action vandalised aircraft at Brize Norton, she tweeted: 'The full force of the law must come down on those responsible.' Nigel Farage called for the group to be 'proscribed'. Jenrick demanded a 'ban'. 'That's what they would say in the pub,' an admirer notes. 'She talks in riddles.' A Conservative peer says: 'She'd be an amazing thinktank director.'
A recent, more pithy summary of her vision for Britain, delivered at a dinner with 25 business leaders, needs to be worked on. One of those present says: 'She implied she wants the same, but less crap, which didn't exactly inspire.' Another senior Tory concluded: 'She seems to be auditioning to be a Spectator columnist' – a noble calling, but not her desired destination.
The shadow chancellor Mel Stride is next in the firing line. 'The widespread view is that [Rachel] Reeves is one of the most unpopular politicians in Britain,' says one of those who want a change of leader, 'and he's barely landed a punch against her.' Insiders claim that after a recent flat Commons
performance by Stride, Badenoch voiced her frustration to a staffer. Colleagues recall a time, during the last leadership contest, when Stride was privately of the view that Badenoch was 'unfit' to lead.
These noises off are denied by Tory high command. Badenoch is 'enjoying working with Mel' and they agree on the need to be the party of fiscal responsibility. Two hours after The Spectator put questions to Badenoch's team about their relationship, they revealed that Stride would take on Angela Rayner at PMQs on Wednesday.
The shadow chancellor, it is only fair to say, did achieve cut-through with his critique of Reeves's 'spend now, tax later' spending review. One Badenoch aide has even begun to use the phrase 'Unshell the Mel' as a homage to 'Uncork the Gauke' – George Osborne's instruction when a reassuringly dull figure needed to be dispatched to the TV studios.
Nonetheless, shadow cabinet colleagues say both Chris Philp, the shadow home secretary, and Andrew Griffith, the shadow business secretary, are eyeing Stride's perch. 'Neither is right for it,' says a fellow frontbencher. 'Angling for positions in the shadow cabinet right now is like applying for a promotion on the Titanic.'
While Badenoch is expected to reshuffle her top team before the end of the year, she is likely to wait until Starmer has redrawn his cabinet. The bigger question is whether she is removed. Party rules decree that only after 2 November, Badenoch's first anniversary in the job, could MPs force a vote of
no-confidence, if 36 of the 120 current MPs write a letter to the chairman of the 1922 Committee. Those who plan to strike include young MPs who want a future and those in seats where their local councillors were wiped out in May.
Ross Thomson, a former Aberdeen MP who briefly ran Badenoch's leadership campaign in Scotland, defected to Reform on Tuesday, saying Farage 'offers the real change we need'. Reform is now expecting such an influx of Tory defectors after next May's elections that they might impose a deadline. 'We should tell people there won't be a lifeboat if they wait too long,' a Reform official says. Suella Braverman, the former home secretary, whose husband has already joined Reform, is considering the jump.
Jenrick is now getting unlikely support as Badenoch's replacement. On 10 June he dined in a Mayfair restaurant with David Cameron, Osborne and fellow Cameroon Lord Barker. 'Cameron now thinks Jenrick should take over when the time comes,' says a close ally of the former PM. Cameron's views are pertinent because he has twice been in to help Badenoch prepare for PMQs.
Jenrick is also 'in touch' with Boris Johnson, the 'smash glass in case of emergency' option for the leadership, sparking speculation that Jenrick would secure a peerage for the former prime minister. Some of Johnson's old team, however, talk of him replacing Bob Blackman, the chairman of the '22, and returning to parliament.
Johnson's friends say he has not decided whether he wants to return. Privately he refers to the prospect as 'a series of overlapping impossibilia' and has said: 'There is more chance of a baked bean winning Royal Ascot' than him becoming leader again. Scholars of the Johnson lexicon will note that such formulations were deployed as a smokescreen when he was previously plotting his ascent.
Multiple sources say Johnson has thought about his offer to the party and the country. 'There is a five-point plan,' says a former minister. This would include a mea culpa for the 'Boriswave' which saw net migration soar past 900,000 a year. 'He would blame Priti [Patel],' his home secretary, a source says. But many younger MPs see immigration as a deal-breaker for Johnson, and believe that Jenrick, who resigned from Rishi Sunak's government over it, is the more credible replacement leader.
What could he even do? One of those who is helping to bring critics together says: 'If we can get noticed and start to say the right things, we can make some progress in the polls. Once it starts to reverse, we will have the momentum – Farage knows that if he doesn't have a poll lead by year three he won't be able to get defectors. Farage may be untouchable but we need to attack the sketchy people around him.'
However, most of Badenoch's critics believe there will have to be some sort of understanding with Reform, which will be difficult. Witnesses say that when Andrea Jenkyns, the Reform mayor of Lincolnshire, entered the NFU tent at the Lincolnshire show last week she greeted Robbie Moore, the shadow farming minister, with the words: 'Hello, arsehole.'
If you thought the Tory civil wars were brutal, they might just have been the starter.
