Latest news with #U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis
Yahoo
12-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Massachusetts economists tentatively project weak growth ahead
BOSTON (SHNS) – The Massachusetts economy is expected to grow at minimal rates in the second and third quarters of this year, according to local economists, who released data Monday showing the state economy contracted at a greater rate than the U.S. economy during the first quarter. Analysts at the economic journal MassBenchmarks reported that real gross state product decreased in Massachusetts at an annual rate of 1.1% during the first quarter. That compares to a 0.3% decline for the U.S. in the first quarter, as the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported in late April. The inflation rate in the Boston metropolitan area also exceeded the growth in inflation nationally. The Consumer Price Index rose at a 5% annual rate in Boston versus 3.8% for the U.S. in the first quarter, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. U.S. GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.4% in the fourth quarter, compared to 1.9% for state GDP, according to the BEA, and MassBenchmarks said 'lagging job growth is the main reason Massachusetts trailed the nation in GDP growth most of last year and during the first three months of 2025.' State legislators are closely watching economic indicators as they try to tackle affordability issues plaguing the state and keep watch over state spending due to uncertainty over traditional federal supports. In its latest observations, MassBenchmarks said President Donald Trump's global tariff plans led to a surge in imports at pre-tariff prices and weakened consumer spending that could trail off further. 'Since February, economic volatility and uncertainty has been fueled by a series of tariff announcements, threats, and postponements,' the journal published by the University of Massachusetts Amherst Donahue Institute in cooperation with the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston said. 'This has had a demonstrable and negative impact on both state and national consumer and business confidence and helps to explain weakening consumer spending in the first three months of 2025. This volatility is roiling financial markets, which have experienced meaningful declines in the wake of a series of announcements of major changes in federal fiscal and trade policies.' Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs were announced April 2, as the second quarter began, and economists said 'these policy shocks have changed expectations' even though only two tariff increases took effect in the first quarter: a 10% tariff on China took effect Feb. 4 and steel and aluminum tariffs went into effect March 12. Markets were rising Monday morning on the heels of news that the U.S. and China had reached tariff agreements. 'Today, the United States issued the first joint statement on trade in many years with China after successful negotiations over the weekend in Geneva, Switzerland,' the White House said. 'Both parties affirmed the importance of the critical bilateral economic and trade relationship between both countries and the global economy. Looking ahead, MassBenchmarks' Leading Index projects Massachusetts GDP will grow at an annual rate of 0.7% in the second quarter and 1.2% in the third quarter, compared to average growth projections for U.S. GDP from a Wall Street Journal survey of economists of 0.8% for the second quarter and 0.6% for the third. 'These projections are tentative and could change abruptly depending on the course of U.S. tariff policy,' MassBenchmarks reported. 'The real effects of increased tariffs on economic growth – as opposed to the effects on expectations or financial markets, will develop with a lag and so impacts on employment and output are likely to be revealed later this year, perhaps by the fourth quarter.' During a speech in Ireland on Monday, Adriana Kugler, a member of the Federal Reserve System Board of Governors, said data show a 'resilient economy' but she expects 'growth this year to be slower than last.' 'Looking ahead, I am monitoring the effects of changing trade policies, as I see them as likely having a significant effect on the U.S. and global economies in the near future,' Kugler said, according to her prepared remarks. 'Trade policies are evolving and are likely to continue shifting, even as recently as this morning. Still, they appear likely to generate significant economic effects even if tariffs stay close to the currently announced levels, and the uncertainty associated with these tariffs has already generated effects on the economy through front-loading, sentiment, and expectations.' WWLP-22News, an NBC affiliate, began broadcasting in March 1953 to provide local news, network, syndicated, and local programming to western Massachusetts. Watch the 22News Digital Edition weekdays at 4 p.m. on Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Yahoo
08-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Trump Has Officially Shrunk the U.S. Economy Already After Tariff Turmoil
President Donald Trump's economic policies have already shrunk the U.S. economy for the first time in three years. A report released Wednesday by the official U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis found gross domestic product had contracted last quarter by an annualized rate of 0.3 percent, The Washington Post reported. It was the first deceleration recorded by the U.S. government agency since early 2022, when the global economy was suffering from supply chain shortages brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic. Trump quickly tried to blame his predecessor Joe Biden, who oversaw three years of solid growth. 'This is Biden's Stock Market, not Trump's,' the president wrote on social media soon after the news broke Wednesday. 'I didn't take over until January 20th. Tariffs will soon start kicking in, and companies are starting to move into the USA in record numbers.' 'This will take a while, has NOTHING TO DO WITH TARIFFS, only that he left us with bad numbers, but when the boom begins, it will be like no other. BE PATIENT!!!' he added. In fact, the tariffs were largely to blame for the fall in GDP, which measures the sum of all goods and services produced in the country, the Post reported. Uncertainty about the president's sweeping tariff policies led to a dramatic increase in imports, which count against the broadest measure of the economy. The situation was exacerbated by lower government spending, as the federal government canceled hundreds of billions of dollars in contracts and grants. Consumer spending also took a hit, with Americans pulling back on unnecessary purchases amid fears of a potential recession, according to the Post. 'Growth has simply vanished,' Chris Rupkey, chief economist at the financial research firm Fwdbonds, wrote in a note to clients after the report's release. 'Maybe some of this negativity is due to a rush to bring in imports before the tariffs go up, but there is simply no way for policy advisors to sugar-coat this.' President Trump and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick unveiled on April 2 a universal 10-percent tariff plus dozens of Trump announced a 'Liberation Day' on April 2 as he unveiled universal 10 percent tariffs against all products entering the U.S. from other countries. Additional tariffs were added for products from countries with which the U.S. has large trade deficits, including China. The duties are an import tax paid by American companies, with the added costs typically passed on to consumers. Other countries vowed to retaliate against the measures, leading to a tit-for-tat with China that ended with Trump imposing a 145 percent duty on all Chinese products and China announcing a 125 percent tax on American products. Americans have rushed to buy foreign-made cars, electronics, clothing, and furniture this month before prices go up, the Post reported. As a result, the trade deficit is the largest it's ever been. Once they do, the added costs are projected to be so high that the tariffs will serve as de facto trade embargoes, with companies in both the U.S. and China saying they can't sell at those prices. CEOs of major retail giants warned last week that prices would rise and shelves would soon be empty if the president didn't reverse course. The CEOs of major U.S. retailers have warned President Trump that they will be facing price hikes and empty shelves within weeks if he doesn't walk back his tariffs. / Siddharth Cavale/Reuters The trade wars have also sent global stock markets tumbling—wiping out trillions of dollars in value—and even shaken the usually stable U.S. bond markets. The S&P 500 has fallen 8 percent since Trump's inauguration—its worst run during a president's first 100 days in office in more than 50 years. In response, voters have voiced deep dissatisfaction with the president's economic policies. President Trump's tariff policy has wreaked havoc on the S&P 500. / Google A Fox News poll found last week that just 38 percent of respondents approved of Trump's handling of the economy. His tariffs and inflation policy received a dismal 33 percent approval rating. Over the past week, the president has oscillated between insisting that everything is fine and the tariffs are working, and apparently trying to reassure investors by saying he's working to de-escalate the trade war with China. He told reporters the two countries are 'actively' negotiating to lower the tariff rates—a statement Beijing has flatly denied. The Trump administration has also been busy carving out exceptions for specific industries. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has called the president's tariffs on Chinese products 'unsustainable.' /Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said this week he had no idea whether Trump was really negotiating with China or not. 'We have a process in place,' he said. 'I just believe these Chinese tariffs are unsustainable.'
The Hill
08-05-2025
- Business
- The Hill
Trump teases ‘major trade deal' with ‘big, highly respected country'
President Trump on Wednesday night teased a trade deal announcement, nearly a month after he implemented a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs and implemented a 145 percent tariff on China. 'Big News Conference tomorrow morning at 10:00 A.M., The Oval Office, concerning a MAJOR TRADE DEAL WITH REPRESENTATIVES OF A BIG, AND HIGHLY RESPECTED, COUNTRY. THE FIRST OF MANY!!!' Trump said on Truth Social. The Trump administration has been in talks with dozens of trading partners during the 90-day prior, which started on April 9 following a week of turmoil in the stock market and pressure from Republicans and Wall Street to take a pause. A 10 percent tariff is in place for all trading partners besides China. On Tuesday, though, Trump downplayed the need for trade deals, telling reporters, 'We don't have to sign deals,' and that he could have 25 signed if he wanted. He also suggested reporters stop asking about when deals would be signed. And, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent clarified that the administration is not engaged in ongoing talks with China, after officials suggested for weeks that there were some interactions with Beijing to strike a deal that would lower the 145 percent tariffs. The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis said Tuesday that the trade deficit swelled in the first quarter, announcing the goods and services deficit was $140.5 billion in March, an 8 percent increase from the month prior. Bessent last week hinted that negotiations on tariffs with India may be close to concluding, adding that 17 negotiations 'are in motion.' He said at the time that talks with Asian trading partners, also including South Korea and Japan, are the closest to leading to a deal because those allies 'have been the most forthcoming' with negotiations. Vice President Vance had just traveled to India to meet with Prime Minister Narendra Modi about tariffs. India, which on Tuesday launched what it said were retaliatory strikes against Pakistan, also just struck a trade deal with the United Kingdom aimed at lowering tariffs between the two countries.
Yahoo
02-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
CNBC Star: Wall Street Bankers Are Laughing at Trump's Economic Excuses
CNBC senior economics reporter Steve Liesman said Thursday that Donald Trump's excuse for his tariff-induced economic chaos has caused 'a lot of laughter around Wall Street.' On MSNBC's Deadline: White House, Liesman described investors' reaction to Trump's refusal to accept responsibility for the recent stock market volatility—and blaming his predecessor, Joe Biden. 'Well, he tried yesterday to blame the stock market on Biden, and I think there was a lot of laughter around Wall Street I think on that one,' Liesman said. 'I think that people pretty squarely put this on the shoulders of President Trump.' Members of the Trump administration all got the memo to blame Biden on Wednesday, when a report by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis found that the gross domestic product had contracted by 0.3 percent last quarter. 'You probably saw some numbers today,' Trump said at the Cabinet meeting that afternoon, 'and I have to start off by saying that's Biden.' Vice President JD Vance made the same argument in a Fox News interview Thursday night. 'This is Joe Biden's economy,' he said in response to anchor Bret Baier noting the first quarterly GDP slip in three years. Trump, of course, has long tried to have it both ways regarding positive and negative economic indicators. In January 2024—three years removed from office—he gloated about 'the Trump stock market' reaching a record high. His rationale then was that the release of favorable poll results against Biden led to investors predicting a GOP win. Liesman, who called Trump's tariff policies 'insane' due to the 'made-up numbers' used by the administration in its calculations, also warned of an impending blow to suppliers. 'This supply shock is not easily handled through the normal tools that we handle downturns in, which is that you end up trying to get people to buy more,' he said. 'But if the problem is that there's not enough stuff and people are losing their jobs because of that, goosing demand is not going to help.' 'And there's a second element to this that is more worrisome to me, which is that the normal circuit breaker on this tends to be government spending,' Liesman continued. 'And what's happening with government spending, that's coming down. At the same time, you have the supply shock. So, we could be in for a twofer here over time.'
The Star
30-04-2025
- Business
- The Star
U.S. stocks close mixed to end April
NEW YORK, April 30 (Xinhua) -- U.S. stocks ended mixed on Wednesday, as investors grappled with a flurry of economic reports and awaited key earnings results from major tech firms. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 141.74 points, or 0.35 percent, to 40,669.36. The S&P 500 added 8.23 points, or 0.15 percent, to 5,569.06, to end its third consecutive losing month. The Nasdaq Composite Index shed 14.98 points, or 0.09 percent, to 17,446.34. Seven of the 11 primary S&P 500 sectors ended in green, with health and industrials leading the gainers by adding 0.89 percent and 0.74 percent, respectively. Meanwhile, energy and consumer discretionary led the laggards by losing 2.61 percent and 1.11 percent, respectively. The biggest headline came from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, which reported that gross domestic product (GDP) shrank by 0.3 percent in the first quarter - the first economic contraction in three years. The decline, sharper than economists' forecast of a 0.1 percent dip, was largely attributed to a spike in imports. This marked a sharp reversal from the 2.4 percent growth recorded in the fourth quarter of 2024. Adding to the economic gloom, the latest ADP private payrolls report showed a slowdown in hiring for April. The report described the labor market as operating in a "difficult" environment, with growing unease among employers. "The continual sequence of policy reversals has led to very high levels of uncertainty for businesses and investors," said Scott Helfstein, head of investment strategy at Global X ETFs. "This report should be a canary in the coal mine for the new administration, but perhaps their willingness to inflict economic pain in pursuit of the long-term goals was underestimated." On inflation, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, rose 3.5 percent in the first quarter. That figure came in hotter than expected - above estimates of 3.2 percent and significantly higher than the 2.6 percent posted in the previous quarter - potentially complicating the Fed's outlook on interest rate policy. However, on a monthly basis, PCE data for March showed some easing in price pressures. Investors are now turning their attention to earnings, particularly from Big Tech. Microsoft is set to report after the market close, with analysts closely watching for signs that its investments in artificial intelligence are beginning to pay off. Meta Platforms is also scheduled to release results, with investors keenly focused on how tariffs may be affecting its operations.
