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The Sun
5 days ago
- Business
- The Sun
June 2025 Market Outlook: Essential Economic and Geopolitical Events for Traders by Octa Broker
KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA - Media OutReach Newswire - 2 June 2025 - June 2025 is shaping up to be one of the most eventful months of the year for global markets. For traders, this means opportunity—but also volatility. The economic calendar is packed with macroeconomic data releases and central bank meetings, while geopolitical risks remain close to the surface. Beyond the usual inflation prints and interest rate decisions, markets will also have to digest key developments around global diplomacy: the NATO and G7 summits, peace negotiations in Eastern Europe, U.S. trade talks with China and the European Union, as well as debates around nuclear policy in the Middle East. Add to this the lingering fiscal tensions in Washington, and it's clear that June won't be business as usual. Octa Broker explains why the economic calendar is worth monitoring and what events to watch out for in June 2025. The Role of the Economic Calendar for Traders For traders, the economic calendar is more than a schedule—it's a risk map. It flags: central bank rate decisions inflation and employment reports Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates and growth outlooks high-level summits with potential for market-moving headlines. These events affect not just macro sentiment but also short-term liquidity and intraday volatility. And when several collide—as they will in June—market reactions tend to be sharper, faster, and harder to fade. Anticipating such events in advance allows traders to capitalise on potential opportunities and adjust risk management—some even avoid trading during volatility. Key Economic Events in June 2025 Here are some major events to follow in June: June 4: Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate decision June 5: European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision June 6: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls June 11: U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) June 15–17: Group-7 (G7) Summit June 17: Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate decision June 18: Federal Reserve (Fed) rate decision—includes Economic Projections and the Dot Plot June 19: Swiss National Bank (SNB) rate decision June 19: Bank of England (BoE) rate decision June 20: People's Bank of China (PBoC) rate decision June 24–25: North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) Summit June 26–27: European Council Summit June 27: U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index June 30: German CPI Potential Impact of June Economic and Geopolitical Events For Traders Heightened Volatility Expected June is shaping up to be an eventful month for currencies and rate-sensitive assets, with seven major central bank meetings scheduled—the BoC, BoE, BoJ, ECB, Fed, SNB, and PBoC. Traders can anticipate heightened volatility not only in the major USD-based pairs but also in equity indices, individual stocks, and commodities. June's Federal Reserve meeting is particularly important, accompanied by updated Economic Projections and the Dot Plot—forward-looking instruments via which markets infer future rate trajectories. Surprises can unleash dramatic repricing in Treasury yields, gold, and risk assets. Macroeconomic Divergence as a Market Driver Inflation paths remain divergent. In the U.S., core CPI slowed to 2.3% YoY, potentially softening the Fed's stance. Meanwhile, ECB officials appear divided: Klaas Knot said inflation risks remain uncertain, while Pierre Wunsch hinted that rates could fall below 2%. This split supports tactical positioning in EUR/USD and EUR/GBP, particularly around central bank commentary. Geopolitical Events Could Disrupt Risk Sentiment June's summits aren't ceremonial. The G7 Summit will cover trade security and energy cooperation, while the NATO meeting will focus on defence spending and alliance posture. Any hawkish statements or surprises around Ukraine, China, or the Middle East could move commodity markets—particularly, oil and gold—and affect defence-sector equities. Bond Market Tensions Could Spill Into FX and Equities Rising Treasury yields, recently breaching 5.0% on 20-year note, are fueling concern over U.S. fiscal policy. As Moody's warned, the sustainability of U.S. debt is becoming a market risk. Traders should watch for safe-haven rotation into gold, Bitcoin, Swiss franc (CHF), and the Japanese yen (JPY). Japan, however, is facing debt troubles of its own, as yields on 30-year bonds recently climbed to multi-decade highs, prompting calls to BoJ to either increase bond buying or halt its plans to gradually reduce such purchases. Either way, traders should keep a close eye on both the U.S. and the Japanese bond markets. Ongoing Trade Negotiations Remain a Wildcard The May U.S.-China joint statement hinted at easing tensions—but markets remain sceptical. There are still several critical obstacles to a comprehensive trade agreement between the parties. For example, on May 12th, China's Ministry of Commerce strengthened control over strategic mineral exports, on which the U.S. is highly dependent. Other critical sticking points include technology transfer issues and Artificial Intelligence (AI), as China's growing semiconductor self-sufficiency efforts are not particularly favoured in Washington. Furthermore, there is still uncertainty as to whether any meaningful progress in trade talks between the U.S. and EU can be achieved in June. Although the parties agreed to fast-track the negotiations, some business leaders are sceptical. June won't be a month for passive positioning. With central banks sending mixed signals, inflation data diverging, and global diplomacy back on the front pages, traders will have to juggle more than just charts. This is the kind of environment where preparation matters more than prediction. Knowing when the Fed drops its Dot Plot is as important as watching where oil prices go after a NATO statement. With overlapping narratives and rising volatility, it's not about calling the top or bottom—it's about managing risk around known catalysts and staying nimble when the unknowns hit. Disclaimer: This content is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to engage in any investment activity. It does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation, or individual needs. Any action you take based on this content is at your sole discretion and risk. Octa and its affiliates accept no liability for any losses or consequences resulting from reliance on this material. Trading involves risks and may not be suitable for all investors. Use your expertise wisely and evaluate all associated risks before making an investment decision. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Availability of products and services may vary by jurisdiction. Please ensure compliance with your local laws before accessing them. Hashtag: #octa
The Sun
5 days ago
- Business
- The Sun
June 2025 Market Outlook: Essential Economic
KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA - Media OutReach Newswire - 2 June 2025 - June 2025 is shaping up to be one of the most eventful months of the year for global markets. For traders, this means opportunity—but also volatility. The economic calendar is packed with macroeconomic data releases and central bank meetings, while geopolitical risks remain close to the surface. Beyond the usual inflation prints and interest rate decisions, markets will also have to digest key developments around global diplomacy: the NATO and G7 summits, peace negotiations in Eastern Europe, U.S. trade talks with China and the European Union, as well as debates around nuclear policy in the Middle East. Add to this the lingering fiscal tensions in Washington, and it's clear that June won't be business as usual. Octa Broker explains why the economic calendar is worth monitoring and what events to watch out for in June 2025. The Role of the Economic Calendar for Traders For traders, the economic calendar is more than a schedule—it's a risk map. It flags: central bank rate decisions inflation and employment reports Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates and growth outlooks high-level summits with potential for market-moving headlines. These events affect not just macro sentiment but also short-term liquidity and intraday volatility. And when several collide—as they will in June—market reactions tend to be sharper, faster, and harder to fade. Anticipating such events in advance allows traders to capitalise on potential opportunities and adjust risk management—some even avoid trading during volatility. Key Economic Events in June 2025 Here are some major events to follow in June: June 4: Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate decision June 5: European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision June 6: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls June 11: U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) June 15–17: Group-7 (G7) Summit June 17: Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate decision June 18: Federal Reserve (Fed) rate decision—includes Economic Projections and the Dot Plot June 19: Swiss National Bank (SNB) rate decision June 19: Bank of England (BoE) rate decision June 20: People's Bank of China (PBoC) rate decision June 24–25: North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) Summit June 26–27: European Council Summit June 27: U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index June 30: German CPI Potential Impact of June Economic and Geopolitical Events For Traders Heightened Volatility Expected June is shaping up to be an eventful month for currencies and rate-sensitive assets, with seven major central bank meetings scheduled—the BoC, BoE, BoJ, ECB, Fed, SNB, and PBoC. Traders can anticipate heightened volatility not only in the major USD-based pairs but also in equity indices, individual stocks, and commodities. June's Federal Reserve meeting is particularly important, accompanied by updated Economic Projections and the Dot Plot—forward-looking instruments via which markets infer future rate trajectories. Surprises can unleash dramatic repricing in Treasury yields, gold, and risk assets. Macroeconomic Divergence as a Market Driver Inflation paths remain divergent. In the U.S., core CPI slowed to 2.3% YoY, potentially softening the Fed's stance. Meanwhile, ECB officials appear divided: Klaas Knot said inflation risks remain uncertain, while Pierre Wunsch hinted that rates could fall below 2%. This split supports tactical positioning in EUR/USD and EUR/GBP, particularly around central bank commentary. Geopolitical Events Could Disrupt Risk Sentiment June's summits aren't ceremonial. The G7 Summit will cover trade security and energy cooperation, while the NATO meeting will focus on defence spending and alliance posture. Any hawkish statements or surprises around Ukraine, China, or the Middle East could move commodity markets—particularly, oil and gold—and affect defence-sector equities. Bond Market Tensions Could Spill Into FX and Equities Rising Treasury yields, recently breaching 5.0% on 20-year note, are fueling concern over U.S. fiscal policy. As Moody's warned, the sustainability of U.S. debt is becoming a market risk. Traders should watch for safe-haven rotation into gold, Bitcoin, Swiss franc (CHF), and the Japanese yen (JPY). Japan, however, is facing debt troubles of its own, as yields on 30-year bonds recently climbed to multi-decade highs, prompting calls to BoJ to either increase bond buying or halt its plans to gradually reduce such purchases. Either way, traders should keep a close eye on both the U.S. and the Japanese bond markets. Ongoing Trade Negotiations Remain a Wildcard The May U.S.-China joint statement hinted at easing tensions—but markets remain sceptical. There are still several critical obstacles to a comprehensive trade agreement between the parties. For example, on May 12th, China's Ministry of Commerce strengthened control over strategic mineral exports, on which the U.S. is highly dependent. Other critical sticking points include technology transfer issues and Artificial Intelligence (AI), as China's growing semiconductor self-sufficiency efforts are not particularly favoured in Washington. Furthermore, there is still uncertainty as to whether any meaningful progress in trade talks between the U.S. and EU can be achieved in June. Although the parties agreed to fast-track the negotiations, some business leaders are sceptical. June won't be a month for passive positioning. With central banks sending mixed signals, inflation data diverging, and global diplomacy back on the front pages, traders will have to juggle more than just charts. This is the kind of environment where preparation matters more than prediction. Knowing when the Fed drops its Dot Plot is as important as watching where oil prices go after a NATO statement. With overlapping narratives and rising volatility, it's not about calling the top or bottom—it's about managing risk around known catalysts and staying nimble when the unknowns hit. Disclaimer: This content is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to engage in any investment activity. It does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation, or individual needs. Any action you take based on this content is at your sole discretion and risk. Octa and its affiliates accept no liability for any losses or consequences resulting from reliance on this material. Trading involves risks and may not be suitable for all investors. Use your expertise wisely and evaluate all associated risks before making an investment decision. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Availability of products and services may vary by jurisdiction. Please ensure compliance with your local laws before accessing them.
Arabian Post
5 days ago
- Business
- Arabian Post
June 2025 Market Outlook: Essential Economic and Geopolitical Events for Traders by Octa Broker
KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA – Media OutReach Newswire – 2 June 2025 – June 2025 is shaping up to be one of the most eventful months of the year for global markets. For traders, this means opportunity—but also volatility. The economic calendar is packed with macroeconomic data releases and central bank meetings, while geopolitical risks remain close to the surface. Beyond the usual inflation prints and interest rate decisions, markets will also have to digest key developments around global diplomacy: the NATO and G7 summits, peace negotiations in Eastern Europe, U.S. trade talks with China and the European Union, as well as debates around nuclear policy in the Middle East. Add to this the lingering fiscal tensions in Washington, and it's clear that June won't be business as usual. Octa Broker explains why the economic calendar is worth monitoring and what events to watch out for in June 2025. The Role of the Economic Calendar for Traders ADVERTISEMENT For traders, the economic calendar is more than a schedule—it's a risk map. It flags: central bank rate decisions inflation and employment reports Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates and growth outlooks high-level summits with potential for market-moving headlines. These events affect not just macro sentiment but also short-term liquidity and intraday volatility. And when several collide—as they will in June—market reactions tend to be sharper, faster, and harder to fade. Anticipating such events in advance allows traders to capitalise on potential opportunities and adjust risk management—some even avoid trading during volatility. Key Economic Events in June 2025 Here are some major events to follow in June: June 4: Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate decision June 5: European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision June 6: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls June 11: U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) June 15–17: Group-7 (G7) Summit June 17: Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate decision June 18: Federal Reserve (Fed) rate decision—includes Economic Projections and the Dot Plot June 19: Swiss National Bank (SNB) rate decision June 19: Bank of England (BoE) rate decision June 20: People's Bank of China (PBoC) rate decision June 24–25: North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) Summit June 26–27: European Council Summit June 27: U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index June 30: German CPI Potential Impact of June Economic and Geopolitical Events For Traders Heightened Volatility Expected ADVERTISEMENT June is shaping up to be an eventful month for currencies and rate-sensitive assets, with seven major central bank meetings scheduled—the BoC, BoE, BoJ, ECB, Fed, SNB, and PBoC. Traders can anticipate heightened volatility not only in the major USD-based pairs but also in equity indices, individual stocks, and commodities. June's Federal Reserve meeting is particularly important, accompanied by updated Economic Projections and the Dot Plot—forward-looking instruments via which markets infer future rate trajectories. Surprises can unleash dramatic repricing in Treasury yields, gold, and risk assets. Macroeconomic Divergence as a Market Driver Inflation paths remain divergent. In the U.S., core CPI slowed to 2.3% YoY, potentially softening the Fed's stance. Meanwhile, ECB officials appear divided: Klaas Knot said inflation risks remain uncertain, while Pierre Wunsch hinted that rates could fall below 2%. This split supports tactical positioning in EUR/USD and EUR/GBP, particularly around central bank commentary. Geopolitical Events Could Disrupt Risk Sentiment June's summits aren't ceremonial. The G7 Summit will cover trade security and energy cooperation, while the NATO meeting will focus on defence spending and alliance posture. Any hawkish statements or surprises around Ukraine, China, or the Middle East could move commodity markets—particularly, oil and gold—and affect defence-sector equities. Bond Market Tensions Could Spill Into FX and Equities Rising Treasury yields, recently breaching 5.0% on 20-year note, are fueling concern over U.S. fiscal policy. As Moody's warned, the sustainability of U.S. debt is becoming a market risk. Traders should watch for safe-haven rotation into gold, Bitcoin, Swiss franc (CHF), and the Japanese yen (JPY). Japan, however, is facing debt troubles of its own, as yields on 30-year bonds recently climbed to multi-decade highs, prompting calls to BoJ to either increase bond buying or halt its plans to gradually reduce such purchases. Either way, traders should keep a close eye on both the U.S. and the Japanese bond markets. Ongoing Trade Negotiations Remain a Wildcard The May U.S.-China joint statement hinted at easing tensions—but markets remain sceptical. There are still several critical obstacles to a comprehensive trade agreement between the parties. For example, on May 12th, China's Ministry of Commerce strengthened control over strategic mineral exports, on which the U.S. is highly dependent. Other critical sticking points include technology transfer issues and Artificial Intelligence (AI), as China's growing semiconductor self-sufficiency efforts are not particularly favoured in Washington. Furthermore, there is still uncertainty as to whether any meaningful progress in trade talks between the U.S. and EU can be achieved in June. Although the parties agreed to fast-track the negotiations, some business leaders are sceptical. June won't be a month for passive positioning. With central banks sending mixed signals, inflation data diverging, and global diplomacy back on the front pages, traders will have to juggle more than just charts. This is the kind of environment where preparation matters more than prediction. Knowing when the Fed drops its Dot Plot is as important as watching where oil prices go after a NATO statement. With overlapping narratives and rising volatility, it's not about calling the top or bottom—it's about managing risk around known catalysts and staying nimble when the unknowns hit. Disclaimer: This content is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to engage in any investment activity. It does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation, or individual needs. Any action you take based on this content is at your sole discretion and risk. Octa and its affiliates accept no liability for any losses or consequences resulting from reliance on this material. Trading involves risks and may not be suitable for all investors. Use your expertise wisely and evaluate all associated risks before making an investment decision. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Availability of products and services may vary by jurisdiction. Please ensure compliance with your local laws before accessing them. Hashtag: #octa The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement. Octa Octa is an international CFD broker that has been providing online trading services worldwide since 2011. It offers commission-free access to financial markets and various services used by clients from 180 countries who have opened more than 52 million trading accounts. To help its clients reach their investment goals, Octa offers free educational webinars, articles, and analytical tools. The company is involved in a comprehensive network of charitable and humanitarian initiatives, including improving educational infrastructure and funding short-notice relief projects to support local communities. In Southeast Asia, Octa received the 'Best Trading Platform Malaysia 2024' and the 'Most Reliable Broker Asia 2023' awards from Brands and Business Magazine and International Global Forex Awards, respectively.
Yahoo
15-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Triple-I/Milliman: U.S. P/C Insurance Reports Best Underwriting Results Since 2013, But California Wildfire Losses and Potential Economic Impacts of Tariffs Pose Challenges
MALVERN, Pa., May 15, 2025--(BUSINESS WIRE)--The U.S. property/casualty (P/C) insurance industry reported a net combined ratio (NCR) of 96.6 in 2024 – a year-over-year (YoY) improvement of 5.1 points and the industry's best underwriting performance since 2013, according to the latest report -- Insurance Economics and Underwriting Projections: A Forward View – from the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I) and Milliman, a collaborating partner. However, losses from the January California wildfires and emerging economic challenges from tariffs could weigh on industry performance in 2025, potentially offsetting recent momentum. Key 2024 Highlights: Personal lines narrowed the profitability gap with commercial lines, as both segments reported net combined ratios under 100 for the year. Personal auto reported a 2024 NCR of 95.3, a 9.6-point improvement YoY, driven by double-digit net written premium (NWP) growth of 14.4% in 2023 and 12.8% in 2024. Homeowners' 2024 NCR of 99.7 marked an 11.2-point improvement over 2023, the first sub-100 result since 2019. The 2024 NWP growth rate of 13.6% was the highest in over 15 years, up from 12.4% in 2023. Challenges on the Horizon: General liability continues to soften, posting its worst NCR since 2016, and the third worst since 2010. The January 2025 Los Angeles County wildfires are expected to drive the worst Q1 performance for the P/C industry in more than 15 years, adding pressure to early-year underwriting results. For tariffs already in place as of early May 2025, the impact on underlying growth and replacement costs shows signs of negative effects, starting with personal auto, followed by homeowners and renters, commercial auto and commercial property. Michel Léonard, Ph.D., CBE, chief economist and data scientist at Triple-I, noted that P/C underlying economic growth in 2025 was twice that of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth, at 5% compared to 2.5% YoY. Additionally, P/C replacement costs are expected to increase at a slower pace than the overall U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), with rates projected at 1.0% versus 2.0% YoY. "While P/C economic drivers continue to outperform the broader U.S. economy – with stronger growth and lower replacement cost inflation – we now anticipate a shift in 2025 due to ongoing and expanded tariffs," said Léonard. "These headwinds are expected to slow the sector's momentum, potentially leading to a contraction later in the year that could exceed the overall GDP slowdown. Additionally, replacement costs, initially projected to rise more slowly than CPI, may accelerate and begin to outpace it, adding further pressure. Even though rising costs may lead to additional premium increases, these will likely be insufficient to offset slowing consumer spending and corporate investment." Jason B. Kurtz, FCAS, MAAA, a principal and consulting actuary at Milliman, a premier global consulting and actuarial firm, noted that adverse prior year development (PYD) for commercial auto and general liability continues to be a significant drag on profitability, having increased for three consecutive years. Regarding general liability, Kurtz said the line experienced significant reserve strengthening during 2024. "The 2024 net combined ratio of 110 included a staggering nine points of adverse prior year development, amounting to more than $9 billion of reserve strengthening, the highest seen in at least 15 years. It is also concerning that the hard-market years 2020-2023, which saw significant rate increases, are also seeing reserve increases," Kurtz said. Turning to workers' compensation, Kurtz said combined ratios once again benefited from double-digit favorable PYD for the eighth consecutive year. Donna Glenn, FCAS, MAAA, chief actuary at the National Council on Compensation Insurance (NCCI), provided a preview of this year's average lost cost level changes and discussed the long-term financial health of the workers' compensation system. "The workers' compensation system continues an era of exceptional performance with strong results and a financially healthy line," said Glenn. "And while there are early indications of potential headwinds on the horizon, the industry is positioned well to navigate these challenges." Note to News Media: Insurance Economics and Underwriting Projections: A Forward View is a quarterly report offered exclusively to Triple-I members and Milliman customers. Members of the news media may request copies for reporting purposes only. About the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I) Since 1960, the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I) has been the trusted voice of risk and insurance, delivering unique, data-driven insights to educate, elevate and connect consumers, industry professionals, policymakers and the media. An affiliate of The Institutes, Triple-I represents a diverse membership accounting for nearly 50% of all U.S. property/casualty premiums written. Our members include mutual and stock companies, personal and commercial lines, primary insurers and reinsurers – serving regional, national and global markets. About The Institutes The Institutes® are a not-for-profit comprised of diverse affiliates that educate, elevate, and connect people in the essential disciplines of risk management and insurance. Through products and services offered by The Institutes and nearly 20 affiliated business units, people and organizations are empowered to help those in need with a focus on understanding, predicting, and preventing losses to create a more resilient world. The Institutes is a registered trademark of The Institutes. All rights reserved. About Milliman Milliman leverages deep expertise, actuarial rigor, and advanced technology to develop solutions for a world at risk. We help clients in the public and private sectors navigate urgent, complex challenges—from extreme weather and market volatility to financial insecurity and rising health costs—so they can meet their business, financial, and social objectives. Our solutions encompass insurance, financial services, healthcare, life sciences, and employee benefits. Founded in 1947, Milliman is an independent firm with offices in major cities around the globe. For further information, visit View source version on Contacts Triple-I: Loretta Worters, lorettaw@ Milliman: Jeremy Engdahl-Johnson, Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Business Wire
15-05-2025
- Business
- Business Wire
Triple-I/Milliman: U.S. P/C Insurance Reports Best Underwriting Results Since 2013, But California Wildfire Losses and Potential Economic Impacts of Tariffs Pose Challenges
MALVERN, Pa.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--The U.S. property/casualty (P/C) insurance industry reported a net combined ratio (NCR) of 96.6 in 2024 – a year-over-year (YoY) improvement of 5.1 points and the industry's best underwriting performance since 2013, according to the latest report -- Insurance Economics and Underwriting Projections: A Forward View – from the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I) and Milliman, a collaborating partner. However, losses from the January California wildfires and emerging economic challenges from tariffs could weigh on industry performance in 2025, potentially offsetting recent momentum. 'While P/C economic drivers continue to outperform the broader U.S. economy – with stronger growth and lower replacement cost inflation – we now anticipate a shift in 2025 due to ongoing and expanded tariffs." Key 2024 Highlights: Personal lines narrowed the profitability gap with commercial lines, as both segments reported net combined ratios under 100 for the year. Personal auto reported a 2024 NCR of 95.3, a 9.6-point improvement YoY, driven by double-digit net written premium (NWP) growth of 14.4% in 2023 and 12.8% in 2024. Homeowners' 2024 NCR of 99.7 marked an 11.2-point improvement over 2023, the first sub-100 result since 2019. The 2024 NWP growth rate of 13.6% was the highest in over 15 years, up from 12.4% in 2023. Challenges on the Horizon: General liability continues to soften, posting its worst NCR since 2016, and the third worst since 2010. The January 2025 Los Angeles County wildfires are expected to drive the worst Q1 performance for the P/C industry in more than 15 years, adding pressure to early-year underwriting results. For tariffs already in place as of early May 2025, the impact on underlying growth and replacement costs shows signs of negative effects, starting with personal auto, followed by homeowners and renters, commercial auto and commercial property. Michel Léonard, Ph.D., CBE, chief economist and data scientist at Triple-I, noted that P/C underlying economic growth in 2025 was twice that of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth, at 5% compared to 2.5% YoY. Additionally, P/C replacement costs are expected to increase at a slower pace than the overall U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), with rates projected at 1.0% versus 2.0% YoY. 'While P/C economic drivers continue to outperform the broader U.S. economy – with stronger growth and lower replacement cost inflation – we now anticipate a shift in 2025 due to ongoing and expanded tariffs,' said Léonard. 'These headwinds are expected to slow the sector's momentum, potentially leading to a contraction later in the year that could exceed the overall GDP slowdown. Additionally, replacement costs, initially projected to rise more slowly than CPI, may accelerate and begin to outpace it, adding further pressure. Even though rising costs may lead to additional premium increases, these will likely be insufficient to offset slowing consumer spending and corporate investment.' Jason B. Kurtz, FCAS, MAAA, a principal and consulting actuary at Milliman, a premier global consulting and actuarial firm, noted that adverse prior year development (PYD) for commercial auto and general liability continues to be a significant drag on profitability, having increased for three consecutive years. Regarding general liability, Kurtz said the line experienced significant reserve strengthening during 2024. 'The 2024 net combined ratio of 110 included a staggering nine points of adverse prior year development, amounting to more than $9 billion of reserve strengthening, the highest seen in at least 15 years. It is also concerning that the hard-market years 2020-2023, which saw significant rate increases, are also seeing reserve increases,' Kurtz said. Turning to workers' compensation, Kurtz said combined ratios once again benefited from double-digit favorable PYD for the eighth consecutive year. Donna Glenn, FCAS, MAAA, chief actuary at the National Council on Compensation Insurance (NCCI), provided a preview of this year's average lost cost level changes and discussed the long-term financial health of the workers' compensation system. 'The workers' compensation system continues an era of exceptional performance with strong results and a financially healthy line,' said Glenn. 'And while there are early indications of potential headwinds on the horizon, the industry is positioned well to navigate these challenges.' Note to News Media: Insurance Economics and Underwriting Projections: A Forward View is a quarterly report offered exclusively to Triple-I members and Milliman customers. Members of the news media may request copies for reporting purposes only. About the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I) Since 1960, the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I) has been the trusted voice of risk and insurance, delivering unique, data-driven insights to educate, elevate and connect consumers, industry professionals, policymakers and the media. An affiliate of The Institutes, Triple-I represents a diverse membership accounting for nearly 50% of all U.S. property/casualty premiums written. Our members include mutual and stock companies, personal and commercial lines, primary insurers and reinsurers – serving regional, national and global markets. About The Institutes The Institutes® are a not-for-profit comprised of diverse affiliates that educate, elevate, and connect people in the essential disciplines of risk management and insurance. Through products and services offered by The Institutes and nearly 20 affiliated business units, people and organizations are empowered to help those in need with a focus on understanding, predicting, and preventing losses to create a more resilient world. The Institutes is a registered trademark of The Institutes. All rights reserved. About Milliman Milliman leverages deep expertise, actuarial rigor, and advanced technology to develop solutions for a world at risk. We help clients in the public and private sectors navigate urgent, complex challenges—from extreme weather and market volatility to financial insecurity and rising health costs—so they can meet their business, financial, and social objectives. Our solutions encompass insurance, financial services, healthcare, life sciences, and employee benefits. Founded in 1947, Milliman is an independent firm with offices in major cities around the globe. For further information, visit
