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The Independent
22-05-2025
- Business
- The Independent
Why there is still political pressure to cut immigration despite worker shortages
Net migration to the UK has practically halved, albeit from recent historic highs, according to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics. The latest official estimates showed 431,000 more people arrived than left during 2024, compared to 860,000 the previous year. Gross migration – just those coming to the UK for 12 months or longer (but not necessarily permanently) – stood at 948,000, itself a decrease of almost a third from the estimated 1,326,000 in 2023. Politically and economically, it is mixed news for the government… What's going on with immigration? A major reason for the fall was new, stricter rules, introduced by Rishi Sunak's government, but which came into effect too late to earn any credit from voters. They made it harder for students to bring dependents on a visa, while a higher earnings threshold for certain jobs helped drive the numbers down, as did a higher outflow of students completing their courses (and unable to gain work permits). Is the decrease good news? Economists broadly believe that immigration boosts economic growth, provided migrants are allowed to work, which most would be under the UK visa system. Students also contribute via tuition fees and general expenditure, while few make much demand on public services, and have restricted access to the welfare state. In a situation where many sectors, notably hospitality, construction, agriculture, health and social care, cannot expand due to lack of workers and skills, migration obviously adds to GDP and tax revenues, while improving demographics. The Office for Budget Responsibility assumes net migration will fall over the next few years, to a trough of 258,000 in the year to mid-2027, before reaching 340,000 by about 2029. The latest data seems consistent with that. And the bad news? Although net migration is more popular and better understood since Brexit, politicians – now including the prime minister – tend to regard it as a 'bad thing'. In his 'island of strangers' speech last week, Keir Starmer broke with the old orthodoxy by declaring: 'The chaos of the previous government also changed the nature of immigration in this country – fewer people who make a strong economic contribution, more who work in parts of our economy that put downward pressure on wages.' Hence the white paper on immigration and proposed tighter controls. So even though the number is halved, it is still at high levels historically, and the political pressure is to reduce it further – but this may well have a negative impact on the government's priority of a faster-growing economy. So will the trend help the government? A bit, but unless they state and achieve a goal of 'net zero' or negligible net migration, Labour will never be able to match what Reform UK offers (unrealistic or damaging as that may be). On the other hand, they would be able to say that regular, lawful migration is down from the peaks seen under the latter years of Tory rule – what's being called the 'Boris wave' of migration. That record and the claim that they 'lost control of the borders' is frequently thrown at Kemi Badenoch by Starmer. She is also hampered by an unwillingness to set a target figure for net migration. Another irony is that the Brexit delivered by the Conservatives – the end of free movement from Europe and the new 'Australian-style points-based system' – was supposed to get migration down but achieved the reverse. Priti Patel, now shadow foreign secretary, is in the uncomfortable position of having to justify overseeing the 'Boris wave' during her time as his home secretary. What about smashing the gangs? These net migration figures have nothing to do with so-called 'illegal' migration – that is, irregular arrivals of people claiming asylum. It is a relatively small number in this context, typically 40,000 to 50,000 a year. Deportations are up during this government's time, but the inflow remains roughly on trend. Nobody seems to think allowing them to work (currently unlawful) might help them make some positive contribution to the economy, and, sadly, there are few votes in defending even the most genuine of refugees.
South China Morning Post
14-05-2025
- Business
- South China Morning Post
Get a second job? How Hongkongers on BN(O) visas are bracing for UK's rule changes
Some Hongkongers who moved to the UK under a bespoke migration pathway have said the country's push to tighten immigration controls could prompt them to find a second job, while others fear they will need to pay another upfront healthcare fee or wait an additional five years to access their pension money. They were voicing their worries over the impact of the British government's newly released white paper, which outlined plans to tighten the controls. The measures included lengthening the settlement qualifying period to up to 10 years based on economic and societal contributions, instead of granting residency status automatically after five years as is currently the case. Visa applicants and their adult dependants would also be required to take English tests. Television producer Matt Cheung is one of those awaiting further details on whether British National (Overseas) visa holders would be affected. He relocated to the town of Warrington, situated between Liverpool and Manchester, in 2022 with his wife and now six-year-old twin daughters under the scheme.
Sky News
12-05-2025
- Business
- Sky News
New English language and UK citizenship requirements for migrants as part of government crackdown
Migrants will have to live in the UK for a decade before they can apply for citizenship under plans to reduce reliance on foreign workers. The change from five to 10 years will come with exceptions for people who make a "high contribution" to the economy or society, who will able to be fast-tracked for permanent settlement rights. It comes on top of new English language requirements across every visa route, which will extend to adult dependents for the first time. The measures will be announced by Sir Keir Starmer today ahead of the Immigration White Paper, which will set out further reforms to bring net migration down. At a press conference later, the prime minister will say: "This is a clean break from the past and will ensure settlement in this country is a privilege that must be earned, not a right. "And when people come to our country, they should also commit to integration and to learning our language. "Lower net migration, higher skills and backing British workers - that is what this White Paper will deliver." Net migration - the difference between the number of people immigrating and emigrating to a country - soared when the UK left the EU in January 2020. It reached 903,000 in the year to June 2023 before falling to 728,000 in mid-2024. But that is still well above its pre-Brexit high of 329,000 in the year up to June 2015. The government is under pressure to tackle legal migration, as well as illegal immigration, amid Reform UK's surge in the polls. 9:47 However, experts have questioned whether some of the changes announced by Sir Keir today will have much of an impact, at least in the short term. Currently, migrants have to live in the UK for five years to get indefinite leave to remain, or "settled status" if they are from the EU. They can then use this to apply for British citizenship, usually 12 months after settlement. There were 162,000 grants of settlement in 2024, up 35% from 2023, and 270,000 grants of citizenship in 2024, up nearly a third on the previous year. 'Contributions-based' citizenship model The new "contributions-based model" means people must spend a decade in the UK before applying to stay, unless they can show a "real and lasting contribution to the economy and society". The Home Office said this will include "high-skilled" and 'high-contributing' individuals like nurses, doctors, engineers and AI leaders. The details are still being fleshed out and will be put to consultation later this year rather than in the white paper, Sky News understands. However, the thinking is that those who pay higher taxes or who work in a priority sector will be eligible to be fast-tracked. Home Secretary Yvette Cooper is also keen for discounts to apply to those who make an "outstanding contribution" to society, such as community leaders, it is understood. English language requirements The government also plans to raise English language requirements across every immigration route, so foreign workers speak a higher standard of English. For the first time, this will also extend to all adult dependents by requiring them to demonstrate a basic understanding of English, which the government says will help people integrate and find employment. 👉 Listen to Electoral Dysfunction where you get your podcasts 👈 Dr Madeleine Sumption, director of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford, told Sky News that extending the amount of time people need to be in the UK to get permanent settlement rights is unlikely to significantly affect migration levels, as there is "no evidence" this affects their decision about whether to migrate. Any impact would be seen in five to ten years, "when people get to that point of the visa journey", she said, adding that the main effect of this policy would be to "bring in more visa-fee revenue to the Home Office" and "to make it harder for migrants to settle in". She said that language requirements "are more likely to have an impact on the number of visas granted", as more than half of skilled worker visas over the past couple of years have gone to dependents. "However, there's no data on how many of them would have passed a language test so it is hard to say how big," Dr Sumption added. The home office has not put a figure on what sort of reduction these policies could achieve, with Ms Cooper to give more details in parliament on Monday afternoon. 16:59 On Sunday, she told Sky News's Trevor Phillips that plans to close the care worker visa route and change the skilled visa threshold to require a graduate qualification would cut the number of overseas workers by about 50,000 this year. However, she refused to put a target on the overall levels of net migration the government is aiming for, saying that approach "failed" under the Conservatives. The Tories have admitted making mistakes in office, but are still calling for a binding immigration cap and want to repeal the Human Rights Act for immigration issues. Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp said Labour has "overseen the worst ever start to a year for illegal immigrants crossing the channel" adding: "The idea that Starmer is tough on immigration is a joke."
